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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
It does look a bit strange, but I think that is just to prevent scouring where the canals meet in the event of heavy rain.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Out of interest I pulled out some numbers to compare.
The card data is from 2014 so it is helpfuly before the rise of Apple Pay etc. Personally I think the Amex data and marketing claims have always been highly suspicious but that is a different matter. Some folks seem to think the TWTR userbase data is equally suspicious but what do I know.
VISA : US users = 304m ; non-US users = 545m ; TOT global users = 849m; US spend = $1,200 bn;
MASTERCARD : US users = 191m ; non-US users = 576m; TOT global users = 767m ; US spend = $676 bn;
AMEX : US users = 55m; non-US users = 57m; TOT global users = 112m ; US spend = $668 bn
Most Popular Credit Card By Country: Visa, Mastercard Or Amex
The map above shows which credit card company is the most popular in each country based on Google search data from Google Trends. It does not reflect the number of cards issued, nor transaction volume, simply the volume of searches for each company. Overall, Google was able to provide data for...
merchantmachine.co.uk
TWTR : US users 77m; non-US users =129m ; TOT global users = 206m
X/Twitter: Global audience 2024 | Statista
Social network X/Twitter is particularly popular in the United States, and as of January 2023, the microblogging service had over 95 million users.
www.statista.com
So on that basis the userbase of TWTR is hepfully above Amex though below Visa/Mastercard.
By comparison there will be about 3.7m Tesla vehicles on the road at end-2022; growing to a cumulative Tesla fleet of 85m by end 2020 (assuming no retirals for simplicity).
In the media space the biggest newspapers by circulation top out at 9m, though in OECD english titles they struggleto break 2m.
And for TV they are surprisingly difficult to obtain data outside USA
Cable news ratings U.S. networks 2023 | Statista
What is the most watched news channel in the U.S.? Fox News ratings are highest in primetime, but how many people watch Fox News versus other networks?
www.statista.com
But the most interesting datapoint is "International BBC News services now reach 456m people every week, " which of course is why the global far-right is so keen to strangle it
BBC's international services reach record global audience of 489m people every week
BBC global audience: The BBC now reaches 489m people every week and 456m when only looking at BBC News, the corporation said on Wednesday.
pressgazette.co.uk
Anyway those numbers many help in the discussion re TWTR as a media play, and TWTR+ as a finance play.
When evaluating Tesla App’s reach, I think the real growth will come from Tesla Network, where it would reach to none-Tesla owners, at that point fleet size might not be a good starting point to do the user base estimation. Also, considering Tesla would license FSD to other car makers, but would likely not allow them to create their own RoboTaxi network, this makes estimating the fleet size itself difficult already.Out of interest I pulled out some numbers to compare.
The card data is from 2014 so it is helpfuly before the rise of Apple Pay etc. Personally I think the Amex data and marketing claims have always been highly suspicious but that is a different matter. Some folks seem to think the TWTR userbase data is equally suspicious but what do I know.
VISA : US users = 304m ; non-US users = 545m ; TOT global users = 849m; US spend = $1,200 bn;
MASTERCARD : US users = 191m ; non-US users = 576m; TOT global users = 767m ; US spend = $676 bn;
AMEX : US users = 55m; non-US users = 57m; TOT global users = 112m ; US spend = $668 bn
Most Popular Credit Card By Country: Visa, Mastercard Or Amex
The map above shows which credit card company is the most popular in each country based on Google search data from Google Trends. It does not reflect the number of cards issued, nor transaction volume, simply the volume of searches for each company. Overall, Google was able to provide data for...
TWTR : US users 77m; non-US users =129m ; TOT global users = 206m
X/Twitter: Global audience 2024 | Statista
Social network X/Twitter is particularly popular in the United States, and as of January 2023, the microblogging service had over 95 million users.
So on that basis the userbase of TWTR is hepfully above Amex though below Visa/Mastercard.
By comparison there will be about 3.7m Tesla vehicles on the road at end-2022; growing to a cumulative Tesla fleet of 85m by end 2020 (assuming no retirals for simplicity).
In the media space the biggest newspapers by circulation top out at 9m, though in OECD english titles they struggleto break 2m.
And for TV they are surprisingly difficult to obtain data outside USA
Cable news ratings U.S. networks 2023 | Statista
What is the most watched news channel in the U.S.? Fox News ratings are highest in primetime, but how many people watch Fox News versus other networks?
But the most interesting datapoint is "International BBC News services now reach 456m people every week, " which of course is why the global far-right is so keen to strangle it
BBC's international services reach record global audience of 489m people every week
BBC global audience: The BBC now reaches 489m people every week and 456m when only looking at BBC News, the corporation said on Wednesday.
Anyway those numbers many help in the discussion re TWTR as a media play, and TWTR+ as a finance play.
Good thing is it will cover a union of dense urban population and price sensitive population(assuming price parity with public transportation, and lower than car ownership), which are often the key to roll out revolutionary solutions.
A bit OT now, but some food for thought on yet another potential revenue stream when Tesla Network becomes reality.
Interesting that he reveals that the consequences of appearing on the Rogan show cost SpaceX to have to endure a year of random drug testing company wide. This is all on Rogan as I see it since he designed the stunt for his own benefit. Clicks for me, too bad for you.
Yes, although the upcoming Polestar 3 will be made in South Carolina.
Rob Maurer created an updated version last time. Don't know if he'll go through the pain again.
I agree, but that was quite the miscalculation on Elon's part as well. Totally insane that a single puff of cannabis nearly jeopardized the SpaceX relationship with the US govt. Pretty good indicator of how fossilized that bureaucracy is. He could have taken Tequila shots until he was blabbering like a fool and his liver was dying without a tenth of the reaction from the geriatrics on high.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Supergenius Elon tricked by bro Rogan? No this was 100% on Elon.
Sometimes people are really adept at choosing a forum name that seemingly synchronises very nicely with their beliefs.
Doubtful (in a useful manner):
Credit is lesser of
30% of cost for BEV vehicles
OR
Incremental cost increase relative to ICE equivilent.
AND
Credit is capped at $7,500 for vehicles under 14,000 pounds Gross Vehicle Weight Rating.
This seems interesting depending the comparison for incremental equivilent. What would an S/X compare to? Still capped at $7,500, but may allow credit on company owned/ used cars.
CLK350
Member
Answer:
Say - Jeffrey L.'s Question
When will 4680 output match your original yield and velocity (daily output) targets?
saytechnologies.com
Sort of OT, but since this is a weekend, for those who are recently interested in TSLA / Tesla, a few pointers, personal views
If you are interested in maximizing your portfolio returns*, I strongly advise watching that last AGM Shareholder meeting, and maybe pause at times to fully digest what is being presented. Then look up the whole thread Moderator's choice: Posts of particular Merit, in particular look up @Gigacast's recent one - ; for news about Tesla, just skip any mainstream media posts (95% are consistently lying and anti Tesla, so why bother), rather get a quick fix, including debunking any recent MSM "news" from Rob Maurer's daily news. If you want to know why TSLA share price did what it did yesterday, look up @Papafox daily review and to understand what moves TSLA intra day or really most of the time, see for example @Papafox recent post
If you think you can choose your stocks based on your hunches (based on the 'news' or investment advisory blogs, paid or not), just split your investments in 2 equal parts, one all TSLA, the other what you normally do. And monitor over the years. Remember what/ who you are against. besides the usual huge players who manipulate the markets, or are plain very good at it, like Jim Simon's Renaissance Tech (whose fund has TSLA as its 2nd top holding BTW, and I'm sure they're trading it well - hi there Renaissance techs or rather algos ;D ) there are hundreds of small hedge funds with the smartest minds and access to info and tech an order of magnitude above what the individual investor has.
(*) TL;dr IMHO Easiest formula is to invest all you can (that you know you won't need to draw upon for the next year) in TSLA - the only variants are in timing and whether you are ready to trade options, one or two levels up in trading chops
PS. Back to reality: if this is the *EXPONENTIAL* growth of cars delivered, AND you know the Gross Profit per car is around 28% and climbing, what do you think the SP will do?
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So Elon says FSD 10.69 is dropping on 8/20?
I get why he's calling it 10.69, but what is the significance of 8/20? He can't know for sure that the release date is 8/20, so is there some numerology I am missing?
I get why he's calling it 10.69, but what is the significance of 8/20? He can't know for sure that the release date is 8/20, so is there some numerology I am missing?
2 weeks out. One more week internal, one week limited Beta release, then wide Beta release. Should be achievable target.
Last weekend before the split
Twice as good as 420 (without overflowing into September)
CLK350
Member
That was my first reaction, but what changed my mind is hearing that it was during this interview that Elon said (decided?) he's stopping his habit of looking up his cellphone on awakening, and instead will do a 20 min workout. Anybody has the time stamp, pls let us (or me via DM) know**.
Looks like he did follow up on that based on his much improved appearance at the last AGM
This in itself represents another 10% + in productivity for Elon and adds another couple of years in his Tesla/ SpaceX / other productive years.
So I started looking up that interview, and what struck me is how Elon is really at ease with *any* level, can interact so well and take advantage to gently sell his agenda/ views. Few CEO's or just few people have that skill. Limiting one's view comes at a price, which we obviously aren't aware of.
If Elon did change his habits based on that interview, that would be a perfect example of how beneficial it is to be (intelligently) open to not-the-usual we all fall prey to.
(**) Edit: thanks @JRP3 for that link - not from the FullSend whole interview but the relevant part is there
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Yes, I admit to having a soft spot for fine Scotch, however detrimental it may be for my health.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Since it's the weekend as a public service and having done some research into pre workout drinks I can say the one they are shilling is just overpriced caffeine with under dosing of any of the other potential ergogenic aids. I'll link a video in the Off Topic thread that goes into more detail.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Very little to think about, since the production per factory is not clarified, and the ramp times are a moving target.
I also think that this little exercise misses the much more important elephant in the room: Volume 4680 production. This is the key to massive scaling since it unlocks supply and cell price that will move Tesla to where hundreds of millions of customers can buy the car.
Addendum: This arithmetic tweet may have come from a Q&A in the recent stockholder meeting. Elon said that Fremont production will max out in the 800k/year range but the currently ramping and future gigafactories will be in the 1.5 - 2.0M/year each range when at full speed. So we can start with 1.75*3+.8 = 6M eventually from Fremont/Shanghai/Berlin/Austin. That leaves 14M to be covered by 14/1.75 = 8 new, as yet undisclosed factories in the future. That matches up with Elon's statement that 12 factories will produce 20M vehicles. The tweet you linked did not understand that 12 factories include 4 that are already on the ground or in advanced stages of completion.
If Tesla announces a new GF every year through 2030, they will come close to meeting what is obviously a very aspirational goal. And since they have already proven themselves capable of building out 3 gigafactories concurrently, I don't see any reason to doubt the possibility of this happening.
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Bravo. This post has Particular Merit. Well done.Answer:
Say - Jeffrey L.'s Question
When will 4680 output match your original yield and velocity (daily output) targets?
Sort of OT, but since this is a weekend, for those who are recently interested in TSLA / Tesla, a few pointers, personal views
If you are interested in maximizing your portfolio returns*, I strongly advise watching that last AGM Shareholder meeting, and maybe pause at times to fully digest what is being presented. Then look up the whole thread Moderator's choice: Posts of particular Merit, in particular look up @Gigacast's recent one - ; for news about Tesla, just skip any mainstream media posts (95% are consistently lying and anti Tesla, so why bother), rather get a quick fix, including debunking any recent MSM "news" from Rob Maurer's daily news. If you want to know why TSLA share price did what it did yesterday, look up @Papafox daily review and to understand what moves TSLA intra day or really most of the time, see for example @Papafox recent post
If you think you can choose your stocks based on your hunches (based on the 'news' or investment advisory blogs, paid or not), just split your investments in 2 equal parts, one all TSLA, the other what you normally do. And monitor over the years. Remember what/ who you are against. besides the usual huge players who manipulate the markets, or are plain very good at it, like Jim Simon's Renaissance Tech (whose fund has TSLA as its 2nd top holding BTW, and I'm sure they're trading it well - hi there Renaissance techs or rather algos ;D ) there are hundreds of small hedge funds with the smartest minds and access to info and tech an order of magnitude above what the individual investor has.
(*) TL;dr IMHO Easiest formula is to invest all you can (that you know you won't need to draw upon for the next year) in TSLA - the only variants are in timing and whether you are ready to trade options, one or two levels up in trading chops
PS. Back to reality: if this is the *EXPONENTIAL* growth of cars delivered, AND you know the Gross Profit per car is around 28% and climbing, what do you think the SP will do?
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