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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I have thought about the "machine friendly world" , it's parameters and consequences, for some time. You are right, Optimus will initially exist in a tailored environment performing specific tasks that currently require human agility and senses. It will excel right out of the gate at it's intended function.
Optimus that will walk the dog, pickup tonight's groceries, make dinner and burp the baby is a long way down the road from now. Know the difference!
Exactly. My hope for Optimus for the next 3 years, by end of 2025, has absolutely nothing to do with Optimus in relation to it servicing the population such as the examples you listed. In fact, I have zero expectation, nor do I want, Optimus being used by anyone except for Tesla for the next 3-5 years.

My hope is that as Tesla's production grows over the next 3 years, Tesla human workforce of human factory workers stays relatively flat and that all that additional production is being done by Optimus factory workers. That's my hope and for every Tesla investor, it should really be there hope too. Think of what can be done and the operating margins of a Tesla factory run being run 90% by Optimus factory workers. Tesla could likely lower ASP for all vehicles while at the same time producing more cars at a higher margin (and much higher operating margin). There's huge implications to the majority of Tesla's manufacturing workforce being replaced by Optimus.

And I absolutely believe that will happen, for the reasons I mentioned in my two previous posts
 
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James did a great job being excited but yet tempering the expectations. It is going to be YEARS before the bot is something that will be a saleable product. I think it will be iterated on for years inside of Tesla.
My only input in the discussion.

Making Optimus functional and productive is exponentially easier than FSD. The dynamics at play are nothing alike. Making Optimus a highly efficient and more production factory line worker than human is not even in the same class as getting FSD is 99.9999%

I actually expect Optimus progress, productiveness, and abilities to leapfrog FSD over the next one to two years. I’m actually surprised more people don’t get this 🤷
Yep. It's a high priority project for a good reason.

The time to educate oneself on AI and Bot is before its value is obvious to the rest of the world.

As a value investor, I try to make money by arbitraging the price and value of a company. Bot dwarfs (not short bots) FSD as a value generator.
 
I wouldn't worry too much about the current cultural relevance of the Daily Show. Their viewership has been dropping for years. They're pretty much at the bottom of the Late Night ratings, with about 400k viewers:
I watched the segment myself. It will resonate with uninformed people that hate Elon for other reasons, but not much else. Shameful of them to use clips from O'Dowd.
I really dont take much into account when it comes to ratings any more. Fox is so skewed towards much older demographic so far fewer watch via streaming. I watch a good deal of the shows in snippets on YouTube as does my family. None of us watch when broadcast.
 
By Sept 29th, we will be discussing how a single Optimus, during the event, will build a model Y from a vat of ore and raw plastic, drive it to the customer's home, wash it, deliver it, then run back to the factory.
Just a minor correction on expectation: I think you meant to say it will fly back to the factory Ironman style at supersonic speeds. ;)
 
I just want to step back and note that throughout this year many of us (including me) have been saying we’re super bullish on TSLA in the longer term, but something less than bullish in the near term.

That divergence should no longer apply. The macros are at least neutral, if not positive. The fundamentals of Tesla are glaringly positive. Likely blowout earnings are now a very short term ahead.

Nothing is a lock. Macros can tank. Covid can close plants, etc. But the setup now is just as positive in the very near term as it is the long term.

Popcorn in position!
 
I just want to step back and note that throughout this year many of us (including me) have been saying we’re super bullish on TSLA in the longer term, but something less than bullish in the near term.

That divergence should no longer apply. The macros are at least neutral, if not positive. The fundamentals of Tesla are glaringly positive. Likely blowout earnings are now a very short term ahead.

Nothing is a lock. Macros can tank. Covid can close plants, etc. But the setup now is just as positive in the very near term as it is the long term.

Popcorn in position!
Covid with subsequent huge inflation problems resulting in world wide supply chain problems, and still tesla is making cars at a profit, i would say that the short term is more bullish. To be able to execute in this setting is seen as a given, but in reality is very difficult and should be treated as an accomplishment in of itself. Recent quarterly earnings are acutally a blowout for durable goods manufacturer in this setting.
 
It won't rip off his arms because they designed it to be mechanically weak in many ways. But it could grab his hand and not let go. So worst case is it grabs his hand, doesn't let go, someone has to come shut it down and reboot it or use a manual release.
You have to know that Optimus will be hosting SNL before long😉
 
William Shatner an imbecile, a buffoon, and an asshole. Anything he’s against automatically makes me more of a fan of that thing. Can’t speak for young people, but most trekkies feel the same.
I think it was just a bit for the show, so most likely he was just reading a script someone else wrote. Though it was pretty intense in hitting the TSLAQ highpoints. It had multiple repeats of the traffic cone kid being hit.
 
Reasons why Optimus might be easier than FSD, at least for performing boring, repetitive jobs in a factory.

Safety
FSD controls a multi-ton machine zooming around outdoors at lethal velocity, with risk of catastrophic damage to life, limb and property if the wrong decisions are made even once. Teslabot is a ~125 lb machine with a maximum speed of 5 mph operating in a controlled indoor environment that, at least for initial applications, could have humans excluded from the vicinity. Teslabot simply requires drastically lower levels of reliability to be considered functional and be allowed to operate without human supervision.

FSD also has to work within tight constraints on processing speed for the inference engine, because at highway speeds it will travel a meter in 30 milliseconds. Traveling too far while waiting to make a decision is unacceptably risky. Teslabot doing a repetitive factory task can afford to take more clock cycles to perform more computations to reach a higher level of certainty about a classification decision before acting upon that information. If I understand correctly how the FSD computer works, this means Teslabot could use deeper or wider neural nets if needed to improve inference performance.

Simplicity
FSD has to deal with a huge variety of potential environmental conditions and problems to solve. The lighting varies, the weather varies, and there is a factorial explosion of possible combinations of lane lines, road designs, pavement materials, other road users and their behaviors, etc. FSD needs to be able to solve almost every imaginable setup to reach the required level of reliability. Nothing has more degrees of freedom than reality.

Teslabot will initially be restricted to boring, repetitive tasks, operating in a controlled factory environment with almost perfectly constant lighting conditions, sheltered from all weather. It also will generally only need to know how to do one thing, and by virtue of only doing one thing, it will also have less challenge with overfitting to the training data, because the training data will be almost perfectly representative of the data it will see during test time (i.e. doing the job).

Sensors
FSD has to compensate for factors that distort camera readings, such as vibration and rain/dust/other debris occluding the housing over the lens. A factory Teslabot would have minimal vibration and no sources of occlusion.
 
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I really dont take much into account when it comes to ratings any more. Fox is so skewed towards much older demographic so far fewer watch via streaming. I watch a good deal of the shows in snippets on YouTube as does my family. None of us watch when broadcast.
As we all know, watching a never-ending stream of "news" makes us all smarter. ;)
 
The news here for those who don’t want to give clicks to Electrek is that Tesla has posted a job opening in Austin, TX for a Retail Electricity Product Operations Manager, which is in line with their official application last year for their subsidiary “Tesla Energy Ventures” to enter the retail electricity market in Texas, but it also indicates that
  • the business will expand into markets outside Texas
  • that the business will integrate not only solar and storage but also “electric vehicles, and future Tesla products”


What to Expect
This Product Operations Manager will be central to the success of Tesla's emerging Electricity Retail business. This person will support the launch and growth of a new electricity retailer in the Texas market. This person will be responsible for managing retail electricity products, administering the customer portfolio, coordinating customer support, and tracking financial performance.

We are seeking a candidate with operations experience in residential electricity retail, preferably with a retail electricity provider in ERCOT.

A successful candidate will have operations experience with retail electricity products as well as the flexibility to integrate innovative approaches including distributed energy resources such as solar, storage, electric vehicles, and future Tesla products.

The Product Operations Manager will focus initially on the Texas market, growing the business, and the team. This role will also contribute to innovation in electricity retail offerings and expansion into future markets, as well as driving improved retail operations in the US and globally.

What You’ll Do
  • Support the launch, operation, and growth of Tesla energy retail offerings
  • Coordination with the market operator, distribution utilities, regulators, and other stakeholders
What You’ll Bring
  • Three or more years of operations experience in residential electricity retail
  • Understanding of distributed energy storage industry & the market for gird services from distributed energy resources
  • Bachelor's degree in a technical or engineering field
  • High degree of comfort/balance of working in a fast-paced results-oriented environment of a technology company & the regulated electric utility industry
 
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People cracking me up on what the Robot can/should show. Stay focused, goal is to create factory workers. So Job 1 should be to execute some repetitive task such as pick up the stamped panel, inspect it for defects, and place in the cart. Maybe not this time, but that's the type of demo with the largest ROI and momentum with the team and stock - and attract new talent.

It should also say "Hey Boss..." and wave a hand in the air when it finds something during inspection.

1660847709144.png
 
Reasons why Optimus might be easier than FSD, at least for performing boring, repetitive jobs in a factory.

Safety
FSD controls a multi-ton machine zooming around outdoors at lethal velocity, with risk of catastrophic damage to life, limb and property if the wrong decisions are made even once. Teslabot is a ~125 lb machine with a maximum speed of 5 mph operating in a controlled indoor environment that, at least for initial applications, could have humans excluded from the vicinity. Teslabot simply requires drastically lower levels of reliability to be considered functional and be allowed to operate without human supervision.

FSD also has to work within tight constraints on processing speed for the inference engine, because at highway speeds it will travel a meter in 30 milliseconds. Traveling too far while waiting to make a decision is unacceptably risky. Teslabot doing a repetitive factory task can afford to take more clock cycles to perform more computations to reach a higher level of certainty about a classification decision before acting upon that information. If I understand correctly how the FSD computer works, this means Teslabot could use deeper or wider neural nets if needed to improve inference performance.

Simplicity
FSD has to deal with a huge variety of potential environmental conditions and problems to solve. The lighting varies, the weather varies, and there is a factorial explosion of possible combinations of lane lines, road designs, pavement materials, other road users and their behaviors, etc. FSD needs to be able to solve almost every imaginable setup to reach the required level of reliability. Nothing has more degrees of freedom than reality.

Teslabot will initially be restricted to boring, repetitive tasks, operating in a controlled factory environment with almost perfectly constant lighting conditions, sheltered from all weather. It also will generally only need to know how to do one thing, and by virtue of only doing one thing, it will also have less challenge with overfitting to the training data, because the training data will be almost perfectly representative of the data it will see during test time (i.e. doing the job).

Sensors
FSD has to compensate for factors that distort camera readings, such as vibration and rain/dust/other debris occluding the housing over the lens. A factory Teslabot would have minimal vibration and no sources of occlusion.
Factory automation has plowed ahead in no small part because of the controlled conditions, but achieving the same thing in the field is much more difficult.

On the flip side, navigating a vehicle is likely far simpler than navigating a bipedal robot with digits and making it do what you want because vehicles really only move along a two-dimensional plane and in an environment that is, at least in its locality, highly structured and standardized with specific controls. You go forward/back and left/right, motion is achieved simply by spinning motors up to your desired speed, you move based on signage and colored signals.

A bipedal robot needs to be far more versatile and dexterous just to pull off what we'd consider simple maneuvers, like walking over to a box and picking it up. You need motors moving the legs correctly, bending the knees, bending the arms, making sure the robot lifts with its legs and doesn't strain the low back, grip the box with its hands, and stand again. And if we're to generalize this outside of controlled factories, the complexity explodes and there will be no standardized controls.


The challenge in pulling this off is monumental, the complexity is staggering
 
Isn't the whole point of the bot a general purpose robot?

Factories already have single purpose robots. Have for decades. And they're specifically designed to do whatever their task is, rather than designed like a human than can do many different tasks.
This bot is intended to do the jobs that the other traditional robots can’t do, either because of insufficient perception and planning computers, access issues, or actuator limitations.

As of today, hardly any robots are used in General Assembly. Fiddly bits like wires and conduit are still installed manually by humans.
 
A bipedal robot needs to be far more versatile and dexterous just to pull off what we'd consider simple maneuvers, like walking over to a box and picking it up. You need motors moving the legs correctly, bending the knees, bending the arms, making sure the robot lifts with its legs and doesn't strain the low back, grip the box with its hands, and stand again. And if we're to generalize this outside of controlled factories, the complexity explodes and there will be no standardized controls.

The challenge in pulling this off is monumental, the complexity is staggering
Don't forget about the risks though. If a factory bot walks into a wall at 3mph you might break at part. If a car hits a wall at 70mph someone might die. Testing and operation can be far more aggressive.
This bot is intended to do the jobs that the other traditional robots can’t do, either because of insufficient perception and planning computers, access issues, or actuator limitations.

As of today, hardly any robots are used in General Assembly. Fiddly bits like wires and conduit are still installed manually by humans.
Tesla uses owner's cars to train their FSD software. Car owners pay Tesla for this privilege.

Tesla will use their own factories to train Optimus software. Hopefully the bots will eventually "earn their keep" and offset this training cost.