Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[henchman24]

Ok, TSLA, make up your mind. $3 red or $3 green..

Looks like TSLA decided.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, whudyall think: MA(10) or Sparta? /s

 

[jkirkwood001]

.

If TSLA can break $314 it will be at a nearly 5-month high (since May 5th)

 

[MartinAustin]

"If..."

View attachment 855300

I take it back!!! I TAKE IT BACK!!!! <falls to knees, sobbing>

 

[Rarity]

But wait! This was with excessively conservative estimates. Berlin and Austin definitely didn't cost $6.3B each because Tesla also spent a large portion of their CapEx budget on Shanghai, Lathrop, R&D, Berlin/Texas future production, and more. So let's say these factories actually cost closer to $4B each (or $8B combined) for that 1M/year capacity. Now the estimate is $8k investment per car/year.

I think the exotic spendy bits are the equipment in the cell factories. More or less $1 billion for an outfitted 500k-1 million assembly factory plus $4 - $5 billion on the accompanying cell factory. Acknowledged that as Tesla has proven, this is a moving target on both capacity and required expenditure. And Tesla hasn't yet completed spending on the factories, especially the cell factories.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, whudyall think: MA(10) or Sparta? /s

TSLA bounced off it's 10-day Moving Average (as of 3:52 ET ). Let's see where it Closes.

 

[Opus BC fan]

not...

 

[henchman24]

Welp… bears have an opening. Overall market closed right at a resistance point. If it breaks, 11k for the nasdaq is the next target which opens up testing June lows. Hopefully support shows up tomorrow and rejects that possibility.

 

[wipster]

If the SP stays above 300 for the next 10 days or so, I'm OK with that.

Damn, they didn't have to fracking take me literally...

 

[Tim S]

Correct

Edit: Let's hope the second move is the right move.

Well that last hour was annoying. Someone obviously made a ton of money trading/manipulating the entire market this afternoon.

I'll go back to waiting for Q3 and Q4 numbers.

 

[Gigapress]

With respect to bad journalism and Robert Reich, I'll leave some wisdom from James Clear:

Why False Ideas Persist​

There is another reason bad ideas continue to live on, which is that people continue to talk about them.

Silence is death for any idea. An idea that is never spoken or written down dies with the person who conceived it. Ideas can only be remembered when they are repeated. They can only be believed when they are repeated.

I have already pointed out that people repeat ideas to signal they are part of the same social group. But here's a crucial point most people miss:

People also repeat bad ideas when they complain about them. Before you can criticize an idea, you have to reference that idea. You end up repeating the ideas you’re hoping people will forget—but, of course, people can’t forget them because you keep talking about them. The more you repeat a bad idea, the more likely people are to believe it.

Let's call this phenomenon Clear's Law of Recurrence: The number of people who believe an idea is directly proportional to the number of times it has been repeated during the last year—even if the idea is false.

Each time you attack a bad idea, you are feeding the very monster you are trying to destroy. As one Twitter employee wrote, “Every time you retweet or quote tweet someone you’re angry with, it helps them. It disseminates their BS. Hell for the ideas you deplore is silence. Have the discipline to give it to them.”

Your time is better spent championing good ideas than tearing down bad ones. Don't waste time explaining why bad ideas are bad. You are simply fanning the flame of ignorance and stupidity.

The best thing that can happen to a bad idea is that it is forgotten. The best thing that can happen to a good idea is that it is shared. It makes me think of Tyler Cowen's quote, “Spend as little time as possible talking about how other people are wrong.”

https://jamesclear.com/why-facts-dont-change-minds

The illusory truth effect (also known as the illusion of truth effect, validity effect, truth effect, or the reiteration effect) is the tendency to believe false information to be correct after repeated exposure.[1] This phenomenon was first identified in a 1977 study at Villanova University and Temple University.[2][3] When truth is assessed, people rely on whether the information is in line with their understanding or if it feels familiar. The first condition is logical, as people compare new information with what they already know to be true. Repetition makes statements easier to process relative to new, unrepeated statements, leading people to believe that the repeated conclusion is more truthful. The illusory truth effect has also been linked to hindsight bias, in which the recollection of confidence is skewed after the truth has been received.

In a 2015 study, researchers discovered that familiarity can overpower rationality and that repetitively refuting that a certain statement is wrong can paradoxically affect the hearer's beliefs.[4]Researchers attributed the illusory truth effect's impact on participants who knew the correct answer to begin with, but were persuaded to believe otherwise through the repetition of a falsehood, to "processing fluency".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_truth_effect

 

[Electroman]

Gary, is that you?


Likewise
I respect the fact that Elon replies to her, imho it shows respect for her opinions, facts, ...she expresses. And those aren't always aligned with Elon's remarks. Furthermore, Karen continues to impress me with her knowledge on a various amount of diverse topics. (I continue to learn a lot from her).
For those who don't follow her on Twitter >> I highly recommend to do so!!

Yes I agree she is very knowledgeable. The only downside I see interacting with her is, she is relentless and loud, and will tire you out.

 

[Buckminster]

Which one of y'all will be the next to follow in Factchecking, Karen and DaveT's footsteps on Twitter? I would do it myself but I don't want to stress out Elon with my super bull estimates. Before you go:

First rule of TMC is "don't mention TMC". We don't need the hoi polloi here thank you very much.
Second rule of TMC is - you got it - I told you that you were a clever bunch.
Third rule of TMC is "stay humble" - covers a multitude of sins.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Welp… bears have an opening. Overall market closed right at a resistance point. If it breaks, 11k for the nasdaq is the next target which opens up testing June lows. Hopefully support shows up tomorrow and rejects that possibility.

Bears will shake the market tomorrow, hoping to get people's shares cheap. But I don't see them gaining much traction.

Putin's on the run. EVs and renewables are taking over. Covid looks to be done as a pandemic. There's just way too much to be bullish about.

And oil is dropping!

I see this dip continuing into the open and then sharply reversing all the way to the Friday close.

TSLA would've rocketed on a dovish meeting, but we'll still need to be capped at $310 Friday with a good amount of MM effort.

 

[henchman24]

Bears will shake the market tomorrow, hoping to get people's shares cheap. But I don't see them gaining much traction.

Putin's on the run. EVs and renewables are taking over. Covid looks to be done as a pandemic. There's just way too much to be bullish about.

And oil is dropping!

I see this dip continuing into the open and then sharply reversing all the way to the Friday close.

TSLA would've rocketed on a dovish meeting, but we'll still need to be capped at $310 Friday with a good amount of MM effort.

Hope you're right.

 

[JRP3]

Yikes. That’s just sad.

What's sad about it? Elon agrees with her.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Why not... It's never a bad time to buy TSLA.

 

[StealthP3D]

Yes I agree she is very knowledgeable. The only downside I see interacting with her is, she is relentless and loud, and will tire you out.

True, especially if the person she is/was interacting with is just plain wrong. And anyone who, back in 2019-2020, suggested demand would dry up if Tesla didn't advertise, or that high prices would dry up demand once early adopters were in, or that demand would dry up when the tax credits ran out, or that COVID was going to crash the economy and the share price further and it was a good idea to sell, or that poor service would kill the company, or that Elon's Tweets would ruin the company, or that they weren't expanding the Supercharger network quickly enough, or that the competition was coming, got an earful from me too.

I really miss Karen's broad technical expertise and the ease with which she could make difficult things easy to grasp. And how broad and wide her knowledge base really was. When someone with knowledge about a subject she didn't know about was schooling her, however rare that was, she was more than willing to learn. If you were offended by her, it's probably because you were wrong, and she let you know on no uncertain terms.

Granted, no one is right 100% of the time, but it was really rare for Karen to be very wrong about anything factual.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I wonder when this economic “recession” business turns around and the market starts to trend positive? I’ve heard November?

2 weeks maybe.....

 

[Gigapress]

TSLA continues to outperform macros.

I showed a few weeks ago that TSLA has no daily correlation with the S&P or NASDAQ on normal days, but TSLA tends to amplify macro movement on big days like today where the market moves 1.5% or more. (Unfortunately, even though the data is undeniable, this has not stopped the incessant daily commentary about relative performance on the 95% of normal days where the S&P moves less than 1.5%. Humans really love to find meaning in random number sequences.)

Today the NASDAQ is at 11220. As of Aug 25th when I made this table, TSLA had never opened above $800 ($267 post split) when the NASDAQ was this low. Although the stock market has retreated to the level of the June lows, TSLA is up 40% since June.