Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

Last time I went to Tahoe, stock surged from $250 to $300 and I scared a real bear.

So I am back for more good luck. And I’m even having a drink.

Hopefully I run into a few bears in the Desolation Wilderness tomorrow.

 

[OrthoSurg]

The longer it drags on, the worse the TWTR deal is for TSLA shareholders - in my mind it ranks up there as one of Elon's biggest missteps ever.

Also, saw this in an article today - worth chewing on:

View attachment 863962

Hang in there folks.

I will sleep on that. Thank you for making me wish this week was the bottom

 

[vikings123]

The longer it drags on, the worse the TWTR deal is for TSLA shareholders - in my mind it ranks up there as one of Elon's biggest missteps ever.

Also, saw this in an article today - worth chewing on:

View attachment 863962

Hang in there folks.

There is no question that Twitter purchase was impulsive and a mis step. That said Elon cares about retail investors and the reason he sold early was to avoid a fire sale(paraphrasing him).

I believe him and reason why I think any further stock sale will be very small, if any. The next couple of weeks will be interesting to say the least.

Short interest has gone up recently and my guess is there was more shorting this week. Keep the faith and buy the dip. Wall Street/shorties are again playing with fire and we will find out definitively next week about Q4 guidance. No doubt in my mind that Tesla will go all out to make it a great quarter.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Does anyone have a handy figure for the number of shares that will be granted to Elon after the 10Q for Q3 drops? (assuming the 12th tranche in the 2018 CEO Comp plan is unlocked). I'm working on a SP valuation theory...

Paging @mongo, @The Accountant

All help appreciated!

 

[MC3OZ]

There is no question that Twitter purchase was impulsive and a mis step. That said Elon cares about retail investors and the reason he sold early was to avoid a fire sale(paraphrasing him).

I believe him and reason why I think any further stock sale will be very small, if any. The next couple of weeks will be interesting to say the least.

Short interest has gone up recently and my guess is there was more shorting this week. Keep the faith and buy the dip. Wall Street/shorties are again playing with fire and we will find out definitively next week about Q4 guidance. No doubt in my mind that Tesla will go all out to make it a great quarter.

It is worth pondering if the X.com idea is a good idea. I don't necessarily believe that was Elon had in mind when he initially decided to make the Twitter purchase.

But I do wonder if Elon can turn X.com into an enterprise that fully justifies what he paid for Twitter, and how quickly he can do that.

In the X.com context, what Elon was buying with Twitter was a user base and an advertising platform.

Building the X.com services is mostly a matter of software development.

If X.com turns out to be a success, it might be the right play, clumsily executed and at a bad time, but it might turn out fine in the end.

 

[traxila]

China gives Tesla tax break 3 days after Musk's Taiwan advice | Taiwan News | 2022-10-13 16:28:00

Model S and Model X receive Chinese tax breaks after foreign ministry praises his Taiwan plan | 2022-10-13 16:28:00

www.taiwannews.com.tw

 

[Artful Dodger]

China gives Tesla tax break 3 days after Musk's Taiwan advice | Taiwan News | 2022-10-13 16:28:00

Model S and Model X receive Chinese tax breaks after foreign ministry praises his Taiwan plan | 2022-10-13 16:28:00

www.taiwannews.com.tw

Not only that, but Elon's virtually guaranteed Giga Shanghai remains open during any future covfefe lockdown(s). And probably secured 10 billion in low-interest, non-recourse loans for Giga2 Shanghai to build the robotaxi. And the factory land. And the highest priority for the entire Chinese civil construction corps... but he just does sugar on a whim, rite?

 

[heltok]

China gives Tesla tax break 3 days after Musk's Taiwan advice | Taiwan News | 2022-10-13 16:28:00

Model S and Model X receive Chinese tax breaks after foreign ministry praises his Taiwan plan | 2022-10-13 16:28:00

www.taiwannews.com.tw

They are trying to make the reader infer that because it happened so close after that must have been caused by it. Also Tesla managed to get the test car there in less than 3days after the article about Elon was published. Also bloombergtax broke the story about the tax exemption before Elon's comments, but it seems to have been updated since(not sure if this is relevant, but seems strange that google had the article cached 8days ago).

Post hoc ergo propter hoc - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Meh, media is really terrible these days... And sheeple are being herded by Russian trolls exploiting terrible media.

 

[Snerruc]

Ok, ok guys. You are all unhappy. Even a doofus gets it. May I remind you BB’s rule: an asset is worth what you can sell it for on the day you absolutely have to sell it. Not what you think it’s worth, not what some expert thinks it’s worth. My investing strategy is different from most of you: I didn’t buy Tesla as an investment as it doesn’t meet my parameters. I bought it as a whim. Woke up one day to find it worth a surprising amount, if you believe the market. Tesla has become a real company at this point, and seems headed towards being valued that way and not pie in the sky. If the third quarter comes through at $1.25 or so earnings as seems likely, that represents $5.00 for a year. At30 times earnings, that would support a price of $150. Looking at the possibilities for the fourth quarter, I might start buying as an investment at $180. There are a lot of old fashioned investors like me. If I do buy some at higher than that, it won’t be as an investment.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Ok, ok guys. You are all unhappy. Even a doofus gets it. May I remind you BB’s rule: an asset is worth what you can sell it for on the day you absolutely have to sell it. Not what you think it’s worth, not what some expert thinks it’s worth. My investing strategy is different from most of you: I didn’t buy Tesla as an investment as it doesn’t meet my parameters. I bought it as a whim. Woke up one day to find it worth a surprising amount, if you believe the market. Tesla has become a real company at this point, and seems headed towards being valued that way and not pie in the sky. If the third quarter comes through at $1.25 or so earnings as seems likely, that represents $5.00 for a year. At30 times earnings, that would support a price of $150. Looking at the possibilities for the fourth quarter, I might start buying as an investment at $180. There are a lot of old fashioned investors like me. If I do buy some at higher than that, it won’t be as an investment.

You must be fun at parties

Everyone has their own style, you do you and we will take appropriate risks with our $$.

Thank you.

 

[Nolimits]

Just watched yet another spaceX mission w falcon9 tonight. Still amazing. Hoping their continued success will leak to Tesla somehow.

 

[spacerfc]

Just watched yet another spaceX mission w falcon9 tonight. Still amazing. Hoping their continued success will leak to Tesla somehow.

Mission success! (remember it's not over until successful payload separation)

But let's not sell Tesla short, Tesla has been able to get $2~3B profit per quarter, SpaceX's annual revenue is probably $2~3B and they still need to raise $1~2B per year, one should hope SpaceX can be as profitable as Tesla soon.

 

[WattsHappening]

Ok, ok guys. You are all unhappy. Even a doofus gets it. May I remind you BB’s rule: an asset is worth what you can sell it for on the day you absolutely have to sell it. Not what you think it’s worth, not what some expert thinks it’s worth. My investing strategy is different from most of you: I didn’t buy Tesla as an investment as it doesn’t meet my parameters. I bought it as a whim. Woke up one day to find it worth a surprising amount, if you believe the market. Tesla has become a real company at this point, and seems headed towards being valued that way and not pie in the sky. If the third quarter comes through at $1.25 or so earnings as seems likely, that represents $5.00 for a year. At30 times earnings, that would support a price of $150. Looking at the possibilities for the fourth quarter, I might start buying as an investment at $180. There are a lot of old fashioned investors like me. If I do buy some at higher than that, it won’t be as an investment.

WTF?

 

[mb300sd]

Are there any restrictions on Tesla using some of it's cash reserves to acquire a small stake in SpaceX? Maybe $2B worth. There's a massive market of investors that want SpaceX exposure that they could attract.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

You've gotta go back to Spring 2019 to find a time when TSLA was oversold as much (and for as long) as it is now. Not a time that I like to remember...

View attachment 863964

I’m sorry that the Spring of 2019 is one you don’t like to remember. For me it brings back good memories.

Having started investing in TSLA just before the time of ‘funding secured’ (buying between 300 and 370 pre-splits) I watched the stock slump all the way to 230, 200 and even sub-190. Those prices were so ridiculous - knowledge gained in this thread - that I decided to go all-in, quadrupling the amount I originally planned to invest.

Best. Decision. Ever.

Hopefully there are some people now who have just started investing in TSLA and are deciding to do the same thing. I expect them to be richly rewarded.

Just don’t take risks with money you may need quickly or with margin. It can always go lower and back then it took a while for the stock to dig itself out of the hole.

 

[MC3OZ]

If you have spare time on the weekend it is worth watching this video. Part 1 of a 3 part series.

The Elon Musk Show S01E01 - Silicon Valley Tech Boom - BBC Documentary​

Sometimes it is worth revisiting what you already know.

In my case I leaned a small, but IMO very important detail.

SpaceX had the money for 3 launches all 3 failed, a bit later they scaped the money together for a 4th launch which worked.

The important detail is, they made minimal changes for the 4th launch mainly just software, that might be partially luck, constrained by a tight budget.

But they key fact is, they changed what needed to be changed, and only what needed to be changed.

IMO in that situation even very intelligent hardworking people would panic. I don't think I know any one who would not have panicked.

Elon encapsulates the motto of the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy - "Don't Panic"

 

[NicoV]

It is worth pondering if the X.com idea is a good idea. I don't necessarily believe that was Elon had in mind when he initially decided to make the Twitter purchase.

But I do wonder if Elon can turn X.com into an enterprise that fully justifies what he paid for Twitter, and how quickly he can do that.

In the X.com context, what Elon was buying with Twitter was a user base and an advertising platform.

Building the X.com services is mostly a matter of software development.

If X.com turns out to be a success, it might be the right play, clumsily executed and at a bad time, but it might turn out fine in the end.

Building the X.com software platform is probably an order of magnitude easier than acquiring the critical mass in users worldwide.
So you just buy that critical mass. What other company than Twitter has that critical mass and is buyable for a reasonable price?
I don’t know any other social media company that has a fairly worldwide penetration of hundreds of millions of users.
If it costs $44 billion to buy that user base, so be it.

Edit: For reference, Microsoft paid $26 billion for LinkedIn in 2016. At that time, LinkedIn had about 400 million users. Microsoft to acquire LinkedIn - Stories
Suddenly Twitter doesn’t seem that expensive anymore.

Personally I feel that the Twitter users are a lot more active than the LinkedIn users, so I’d value a Twitter user more than a LinkedIn user.

 

[verystandard]

You must be fun at parties

Everyone has their own style, you do you and we will take appropriate risks with our $$.

Thank you.

"Looking at the possibilities for the fourth quarter, I might start buying as an investment at $180. There are a lot of old fashioned investors like me. If I do buy some at higher than that, it won’t be as an investment."

This sounds exactly like me back at 2019 May and $189 (pre split) was my first dip. I was planning to go all in when it below $150 and of course the boat has sailed, imagine if I do so I probably retired early but what the hell. So yes I agreed, everyone has their own style, as long as they are okay with the risk (risk of losing out or buy in too early) Whatever happens don't let you emotion takeovers you during the mid course.

For me I'm doing house cleaning and selling more toys/craps in craigslist/kijiji, preparing more dry powder for the weeks to come.

Good luck!

 

[Christine69420]

I'm sitting here with my coffee and a big grin! I just closed the deal on my dream house. Got the keys. Admiring the view from my living room sitting on improvised furniture.



Yes I do have to sell some more shares now. But that is all right. Without TSLA I would not be here. Bought my first shares in the spring of '19 so the graph a few posts back explains how this house dream became possible.

I even have a Plaid on order. Scheduled for delivery Q4/Q1. If we are still in a slump I might push delivery out one quarter. Lot's of things needed in this empty house.

If you have recently invested and your account is all red then just hang in there. 2019 is not that far ago. I belive TSLA has more to do.

A big thank you to you all for helping me HODL my shares trough everything that has happened! I love you all!

 

[mongo]

Does anyone have a handy figure for the number of shares that will be granted to Elon after the 10Q for Q3 drops? (assuming the 12th tranche in the 2018 CEO Comp plan is unlocked). I'm working on a SP valuation theory...

Paging @mongo, @The Accountant

All help appreciated!

First, if Q3 hits 21.x B in revenue, Elon' options vest, but no shares and in play until he executes.

Total of all 12 tranches is roughly 304 million shares so 25.3 Million.
Exact number is last tranche is 25,330,065 +/- 15
Original pre-pre-split count is 20,264,042 (which divides into 10 lots of 1,688,670 and 2 of 1,688,671