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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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In other words they don't know squat...but love to put out pretty graphs.
I don't agree, Analcysts know squat intimately. They love it, they make they living play in it, pushing it around the bowl. I think James Stephenson is the King of pretty graphs, and those don't move the market.

They love to sound smart with wall street lingo....when I played sports we called folks like them posers.
This is the Kabuki dance part of Wall St. Everyone knows the outcome in advance, and everyone is expected to be in their chair when the theatre begins.

Their negative narrative has a life of its own, independent of facts on the ground. Analysts just push it out to their audience, who are all paying customers. It does not need to resemble reality, as long as the house can still fill all the seats.

Which they do, handily, thanks to short-term thinking and ownership of the regulator (SEC). How do we get past this? Master Plan Part Trois. MASSIVE TONNAGE.

Cheers!
 
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What is Chicken's game plan?

Did he sell high with the intention to buy back in lower?

If so, is he still out, or is he back in?

We can only judge success/failure when he is back in, with more shares, or fewer shares.
He didn't sell his shares. He sold covered calls then did a synthetic short (sell covered call and use the premium to buy puts). He still has his shares. The intentin isn't necessarily sell high buy low. I think his intention was just to take advatnage of the bear market and the inevitable decline of the stock market in general.

He has more cash now with the same number of shares. I would say he made hell of a trade.
 
It's Tuesday :) but there are two Fed speeches today.

We got this news today which is bringing down macros. Hope NFLX has good earnings!

Not sure if you're being sarcastic since 2022 is bizarro year. If you're not, why would an increase in industrial output bring down macros? Doesn't that imply higher productivity, which is a---good thing?
 
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It's Tuesday :) but there are two Fed speeches today.

We got this news today which is bringing down macros. Hope NFLX has good earnings!


It's ironic that improved industrial output would pull the markets down. A short time ago, it would have been a positive catalyst.
 
He didn't sell his shares. He sold covered calls then did a synthetic short (sell covered call and use the premium to buy puts). He still has his shares. The intentin isn't necessarily sell high buy low. I think his intention was just to take advatnage of the bear market and the inevitable decline of the stock market in general.

He has more cash now with the same number of shares. I would say he made hell of a trade.
and you know this as fact how? ... because someone said it on You Tube

"Buffalo Chicken Genius" is that you hiding under the strange cybertruck graphic :p
 
You know who always compliments my car? It's young drive thru workers. They spend all day serving car after car. So they naturally think about which cars they like.

I've lost count of the number of times they tell me how much they love my Tesla and they wish they could get one. It happened again yesterday. Some day, many of them will get that Tesla dream car for their very own.
At the moment I am in Rio de Janeiro, where there are a few gray market Teslae but not many.
Each time I happen to wear a Tesla t-shirt I end out being asked if I have a Tesla by adolescents or young adults. There is not much Tesla discussion here, since they aren't sold here, but there is major interest anyway.

My suspicion is that that sort of interest is common around the world. There is no question in my mind that Tesla will have a warm welcome almost everywhere.

As an aside, all the notional arguments about price competition are pretty much repudiation of Marketing 101. The cheapest product almost never si the best selling one, in any category, anywhere. The discussions here about price elasticity of demand are similarly logical but wrong.

Price competition is real only when comparing price of an identical product from different vendors. Then it is a tactic that has been trained by vendors, including car dealers.

Price competition is generally irrelevant when comparing product choices that are not identical. Examples abound: generic pharmaceuticals vs name brands; base model cars vs high trim levels; virtually every product category has examples: Kleenex vs generic tissues.

I raise that now because almost every demand analysis for Tesla says more or less: "Tesla can raise prices and still sell, if they need more demand they can just cut prices. That has NEVER been Tesla's way. However, among actual purchasers price can and does effect changes in timing and/or thoughts of 'good deals'. Timing levers such as additional features with time limits (e.g.'free' Supercharging, or including optional colors, etc.) do absolutely change timing of purchases. Tax incentives, however, trigger purchasing choices that invariably overstate the value, and encourage sales.

The reality is that pricing itself is not and never has been a primary purchasing lever, but it is a major force in psychological justification. Tesla always shows a 'savings' line and displays both price and probable cost. That is wise, because it encourages elimination of objections.

Just to look at the question quantitatively just compare, for examples:
-AAPL gross margin to any other company with a similar product line;
-Tesla vs anybody else...ah yes, everyone here knows that one;
-Paccar vs Navistar

Please, all of us, understand that demand issues have no relevance to Tesla now, and will not until they are sold and accessible almost everywhere. Timing issues and 'The Wave' are real.
Having to wait months or years to take delivery is a real impediment. That is not a demand problem. It is a supply problem.

Finally, tomorrow we will all see how all the above is true. The people who forecast demand-based profit reductions are really clueless, including one of the people here that we usually respect because he does usually count deliveries fairly well.
 
At the moment I am in Rio de Janeiro, where there are a few gray market Teslae but not many.
Each time I happen to wear a Tesla t-shirt I end out being asked if I have a Tesla by adolescents or young adults. There is not much Tesla discussion here, since they aren't sold here, but there is major interest anyway.

Say hi to jbaracoia (sp?) for us and tell him we miss him.
 
We got this news today which is bringing down macros. Hope NFLX has good earnings!


Lol, when HIGHER industrial output brings down U.S. markets, and all depends on MORE people sitting around watching TV instead of working (or living their lives), that means the commies have won... :p

Cheers!
 
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We are all smart since we all invest in Tesla, but chicken has been smarter when it comes to stock price, market sentiment, and TA. Although it’s true that buying TSLA at $300 won’t be a mistake in a few months/year, I would still rather buy at $200 instead.

You would rather buy at $200? I would rather buy at $100 or $50 even. In fact, I would rather buy in the $12 range if I had a chance.

Oh, wait, I did! I bought as much as I could handle at $12 and change. Maybe that's why I'm not running around waiting for $200 while saying it's still too expensive.

Friday, I bought a handful of the shortest-term call options I believe I've ever bought (exp. 10/28). They were also the least out of the money at $217.50. I'm not recommending this, but the price was good enough to take a gamble and I felt like gambling and am prepared to lose it all in exchange for a smaller chance at 3X or even 5X. These are the only options purchase I have made in 2022.

I'm the first to tell you that short term price movements cannot be predicted with any consistency but sometimes there is a confluence of events that move the odds in your favor. In this case, I believe the constant hammering TSLA has been subjected to as the MM's take maximum advantage of market weakness, had set TSLA up for a relief rally, at a minimum. And upcoming earnings provided potential for big profits relative to the risk even if the stock doesn't move big immediately upon the release/earnings call (hence the extra week on the exp.). However, with the recent rally they are up over 40% and most of the risk/reward advantage I saw has been priced in already. If I didn't want to gamble, I would just sell them all right now for a nice profit but that's not why I bought them!

If TSLA rallies enough before the close tomorrow I might sell half and leave the remaining ones as free lottery tickets. Otherwise, I'll stick with my original gamble with the entire amount. I don't think a strong rally is more likely than not, perhaps roughly 40/60, but the point is, no, I'm not expecting it to hit $200! Always buy when the getting is good. The trick is knowing when that is. A real pessimist will wait for earnings hoping for weak guidance and a better buying opportunity. But, if guidance is weak, is it really a better buying opportunity? At that point, you have to ask why, if your investment thesis is that we are on the early part of the adoption curve, Tesla's guidance would be weak. Always absorb shares identified as being a good value, don't wait and hope for the buying opportunity of a lifetime that may never come. Of course, the lower the price goes, without a corresponding drop in the expected value of the company, the bigger the position one can reasonably take.
 
Today's performance is all about the MMs again. If we see TSLA brought down near 0% and a fight between red and green ensue, we'll know we've got more shenanigans on our hands today.

At least the big moneymakers RIVN and LCID are up 2.5% today, and the MUCH more profitable GM and Ford are up >1% today as well. /s

Meh. Ultimately these MFers toying with my boy TSLA will lose their money.
 
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Hey, here's a recent Q post/thread that ties all three of these together!

I want to comment on the R&D accounting thing. This has always been a TSLAQ argument that is based on specious reasoning.

It is true that Tesla accounts for R&D differently than other automakers who put it in automotive COGS and this, in a sense, makes Tesla's auto gross margin percentage not directly comparable to other car companies without first making some attempt to adjust for this accounting difference. It is also true that many bulls, especially amongst the masses of poorly informed retail investors, are not aware of this.

However, bears running with this point do not like to acknowledge that Tesla's R&D expenses do in fact behave more like indirect overhead expenses than COGS, because Tesla's R&D is apparently more or less invariant with respect to production volume. GoJo, of course, conveniently neglects to mention that since it doesn't fit his narrative. The ratio of Tesla's total R&D spending to auto gross profit has been declining precipitously and will continue to do so as production volume continues to explode. It's leveled out at 16% in recent quarters because Tesla's volume growth temporarily plateaued and because Tesla is ramping up a whole bunch of new R&D efforts. Tesla is doing R&D on a lot of stuff that has nothing to do with making S3XY cars. For example: Dojo, Optimus, FSD computer, Megapacks, Powerwalls, Solar Roof, Autobidder, metallurgy for die casting that has many potential long-term applications beyond car-making, Robotaxi, and secret skunkworks projects we don't know about. Since Q1 2018, Tesla's vehicle deliveries have grown by an order of magnitude while R&D expenditure has merely doubled. This is a property of fixed costs, not variable costs, and COGS is supposed to represent variable costs only or fixed costs like factory overhead that directly relate to producing goods.


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QuarterR&D / Auto Gross ProfitAuto Gross ProfitResearch & Development
Q1 201865%$ 569$ 367
Q2 201856%$ 691$ 386
Q3 201821%$ 1,711$ 351
Q4 201818%$ 1,955$ 356
Q1 201945%$ 751$ 340
Q2 201932%$ 1,016$ 324
Q3 201927%$ 1,222$ 334
Q4 201924%$ 1,434$ 345
Q1 202025%$ 1,311$ 324
Q2 202021%$ 1,317$ 279
Q3 202017%$ 2,105$ 366
Q4 202023%$ 2,244$ 522
Q1 202128%$ 2,385$ 666
Q2 202120%$ 2,899$ 576
Q3 202117%$ 3,673$ 611
Q4 202115%$ 4,882$ 740
Q1 202216%$ 5,539$ 865
Q2 202216%$ 4,081$ 667
 
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