Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Webeevdrivers]

Wouldn't Tesla be Tesla in French too ?

Yes. It’s a proper name.

 

[The Accountant]

Good catch.

Given the change in interest rates (plus the increase in Tesla's cash), you should probably expect ~1.5X - 2X that much interest income in Q4. Depending on potential rising interest expense, it could start to get material.

(math: we don't know exactly what Tesla's cash yielded, but we can extrapolate from change in Fed Funds rate. Average Fed Funds was ~2% in Q3; will be ~3.75% in Q4 depending on Fed path. Tesla wasn't likely earning Fed Funds rate, but it's the multiple that matters.)

yes - they have also been investing more in US Gov't & Corp Securities to generate a higher return. This number may be higher in Q4 as cash builds.

 

[GOVA]

Quebec

Source: Wikipedia
Quebec ranks among the top ten areas to do business in mining in the world.[244] In 2011, the mining industry accounted for 6.3% of Quebec's GDP[245] and it employed about 50,000 people in 158 companies.[246] It has around 30 mines, 158 exploration companies and 15 primary processing industries. While many metallic and industrial minerals are exploited, the main ones are gold, iron, copper and zinc.

Dealing with Québécois bureaucracy is probably going to add far more costs than resource proximity will subtract unfortunately.

There is a reason that in spite of having a well educated population and some of the lowest energy prices in NA that Quebec has much lower GDP per head than even Mississippi.

They did deal fine with German one, so they should be fine.

EDIT: Read about Mexico's economy too here. They do make the most cars in North America among many other interesting things.

 

[Electroman]

All I am hearing is, Quebec has great mining opportunities. That doesn't seem to be a good reason to open a high tech car manufacturing factory. Maybe cell/pack manufacturing?

 

[hobbes]

Teslamag´s source says 15 ships in Q4 to Europe, and this does not even include right-hand-drive cars!

Exklusiv: 15 Tesla-Schiffe für Europa in Q4 – doppelter Deutschland-Endspurt im Dezember

Das 4. Quartal dürfte Tesla nach teslamag.de-Informationen neue Rekorde in Europa bringen – aber keineswegs ein Ende der Hektik zum Schluss.

teslamag-de.translate.goog

@Troy

 

[ThisStockGood]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1585314843854249984

Seems we have a done deal.

 

[Phobi]

Farther and farther…

In the rear view mirror.

You did it Mary.

GM struggles to launch battery production, delaying 2023 EV sales goal

General Motors battery training and hiring delays will push the company's 2023 sales goal back to 2024.

www.teslarati.com

 

[JRP3]

Have a little perspective.

I do, as do others in this thread who have laid out reasons Quebec may not be a good choice. We don't even know if Tesla is building an automotive plant there but you're intent on defending it anyway.

 

[Unpilot]

So twitter "overhang" is gone...and the SP falls $4?

 

[JRP3]

At the end of the day, this is a nothing burger, please don't imagine it's more than an inconvenience.

On it's own, yes, but as I said it could be indicative of other issues.

 

[woodisgood]

So twitter "overhang" is gone...and the SP falls $4?

Everything turned sharply down…not a response to any Elon/Twitter news.

Just bear market volatility.

 

[Ogre]

As Tesla’s automation efforts have driven down the cost of labor per vehicle produced, they have changed the factory selection criteria. Where 20 years ago, locating a factory meant locating in a region where labor was inexpensive, that’s no longer the case now. Tesla wants fewer, more empowered, smarter employees. Rather than chasing the cheapest labor markets, they pursue factories in locations with abundant skilled labor and locations which make Tesla a friend to local politicians.

By locating factories near where their products are consumed and near resources they need access to, Tesla becomes an easy ally to regional politicians. This insulates them from protectionist legislation and it helps them secure access to natural resources. There are often local tax benefits tossed into the mix as well.

Whatever bureaucratic hoops they have to jump through is transitory. The benefits of having a factory in the middle of Germany which might otherwise be hostile towards Tesla is immense. VW has massive political power in Germany, Tesla being located a handful of miles from Berlin insulates them from any legislative pushback VW might be able to exert in the region.

Likewise Quebec/ Canada. Once Tesla is in Canada, the government has a vested interest in protecting Tesla’s manufacturing in the region.

People underestimate how effective this tactic is. This isn’t just a matter of getting some short term perk to locate in the region, it is a long term alliance between the administration (regardless of political bend) and Tesla. Tesla is injecting themselves into the economy of every major country they participate in. A government trying to attack/ expel Tesla is like a host ejecting a symbiotic partner.

Shaving a bit here or there off of the cost to build the factory or even delaying the factory by a few months is small potatoes in the scheme of things. Tesla is now part of the German economy. Soon it will be part of the Canadian economy, and the Mexican economy, etc etc etc. This is a well thought out strategy.

EDIT/ PS: This is part of Tesla’s patented long term thinking. It doesn’t matter which political party is in power in which country (well aside from authoritarian regimes), long term benefits of location far outweigh the short term benefits

 

[Paracelsus]

So twitter "overhang" is gone...and the SP falls $4?

 

[jkirkwood001]

This type of requirement seems like something that would rule out Quebec from the start, I doubt it's the only ridiculous law on the books there. Surprised Elon would even consider it.

Can we tone this down a bit? This is a longstanding and complex issue in Canada. And the political rationale is Quebec's desire to maintain its language and culture surrounded by 98% not French speakers in North America. So I can understand the drastic policy even though its contentious.

But to clear up some of the Quebec-language FUD (we all good with debunking FUD here?), it's not absolute. What the law is trying to avoid are stores called "Jimmy's Shoes" and other English-specific branding. "Tim Horton's Donuts" had to change its branding to "Tim Hortons" (without the English possessive apostrophe), but this corporate strategy enabled them to broaden their service offering in Quebec and the rest of North America to more than doughnuts. Businesses also have to support providing services in French, like at reception. But that's easy to staff in Quebec of course.

There are lots of Starbucks in Quebec for example. I was in Montreal and went to a restaurant called "Larrys". That's fine, but "Larry's" would not be okay. At the end of the day, this is a nothing burger, please don't imagine it's more than an inconvenience.

The problem I see with Quebec is snow. Pumping out 10,000 vehicles a week means a constant stream of vehicles coming out the factory and onto trucks. When it's snowing a foot outside, that is a problem....

(Internet search says they get more than 10 feet of snow/year)

EDIT: And @BornToFly , we Canadians have lived and worked and manufactured through winter for hundreds of years. It's called a SNOWPLOW (Montreal alone has 2,200 public service snowplows). In Quebec, there is little or no risk of earthquakes, forest fires, water shortages, war, mass murders, election overturns, etc. etc. etc. In other words, I suggest snow is an acceptable risk IMO.

 

[Dutchie]

Companies in Quebec have to have French names by law. Many big insurance companies moved out of Montreal because of that requirement. (Unless that's changed recently).

“Usine Giga de Tesla”.

Sounds kind of cool

 

[Usain]

Never is a long time. I think lithium miners will probably hit hard times at some point, perhaps 30-40 years in the future. It will happen after batteries have hit massive scale are are being recycled as fast as they are made. Economic activity is cyclical and so this will happen during and extended downturn in economic activity. There is also the near certainty that entirely new battery chemistries, without lithium, will prove superior to even the best batteries today. This could happen before or after we have enough recycling of lithium to impact miners.

30-40 years may be the time that lithium batteries no longer dominate and start to be displaced by different chemistries and/or different storage mechanisms.

Until then, the demand for lithium will be insatiable no matter the economic climate. Lithium recycling is a very good thing to do and it will be cost effective.

But recycling will have no effect on lithium demand because there is nothing that can stop the endless demand for energy storage. Those who say that recycling will eventually put an end to mining are just wrong. Only new storage technology can put an end to mining.

 

[jkirkwood001]

On it's own, yes, but as I said it could be indicative of other issues.

With all due respect, I'd suggest that's pure FUD. You don't know exactly why, but you suspect Quebec wouldn't be a good location for a Tesla Gigafactory, that it? That's even worse than giving a reason we know is bunk, like "Tesla's doomed because the competition is coming".

Let's just see what happens, that okay? I'm not fixed on Quebec being the next Gigafactory (anywhere in Canada would be fine, thank you very much!), I just think we need to avoid the spurious arguments against.

 

[jkirkwood001]

I'll take it!

https:// companiesmarketcap.com /

 

[Barnsy]

Food for thought... KFC is called PFK in Quebec ONLY. Even in France it's called KFC.

Running a business in Quebec is just asking for red tape and nonsense.

 

[MikeC]

Big volume week lately after bouncing off a recent historical low, Elon probably not selling (or has already sold), TWTR purchase almost resolved, Q4 already a third of the way through. Feels like we could be setting up for a run.