Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mirindi]

Hello everyone, first-time poster here but long-time reader!

Sure has been rough lately with everything Elon-related unfortunately, but thank you all for keeping it real in here.

Hopefully, this slaughter ends soon. While a lot of the things happening are a perfect storm of a lot of unfortunate events this year, I hope we'll come out of it soon and back to looking at the fundamentals.

 

[2daMoon]

I'm seriously 10% away from selling everything and never looking at any stock chart again

I've bought the ticket for this roller coaster and I'm not getting off just because it got scary! Wheeeeeee

​

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Hello everyone, first-time poster here but long-time reader!

Sure has been rough lately with everything Elon-related unfortunately, but thank you all for keeping it real in here.

Hopefully, this slaughter ends soon. While a lot of the things happening are a perfect storm of a lot of unfortunate events this year, I hope we'll come out of it soon and back to looking at the fundamentals.

While a lot of the things happening are a perfect storm of a lot of unfortunate events this year, I hope we'll come out of it soon and back to looking at the fundamentals. -

What are fundamentals??? /s

 

[Gigapress]

It's hard to imagine, but we must admit it is a possibility if the market takes a serious nosedive even further down from here. Literally any PE is possible, even despite record breaking quarters and fantastic growth.

Chicken's prediction of $140 is surprisingly much closer than I ever expected it to be, I never thought we'd be HERE right now.

It is possible, which is why my personal emergency plan is:

1. Update resume
2. Get job
3. Buy TSLA stock and LEAPS with 50-70% of after-tax income
4. Continue step 3 until 2024 or LEAPS printing millions, whichever comes later

As long as this program halts before I'm old, then I'm good to go.

 

[verystandard]

It's hard to imagine, but we must admit it is a possibility if the market takes a serious nosedive even further down from here. Literally any PE is possible, even despite record breaking quarters and fantastic growth.

Chicken's prediction of $140 is surprisingly much closer than I ever expected it to be, I never thought we'd be HERE right now.

I despise Chicken's showboating his Rolex purchase in Twitter days ago but at the same time I'm fully prepared in case Tesla does goes near $140 as he predicted, I will stick with my plan of buying and I will have my money ready for catching a bloody knife.

 

[gtrplyr1]

Twitter losing 4 Million a day. Musk might have to sell much more TSLA in the near future. If I never hear the word Twitter again ... it will be too soon.

Those with margin calls, and I know one personally, might have a very bad month. While macros are also against us right now, Elon is certainly not helping. I hope he has to sell most of his TSLA and then he can walk away and post juvenile memes on twitter all day for all I care.

TSLA LONG
ELON SHORT

 

[mongo]

“If they had a demand problem they would reduce production.”

Musk has said in the past that Tesla will choose unit volume over margin if that choice needs to be made. in other words Tesla is committed to always prioritizing increased produnction, and will lower pricing to sell that increased volume if necessary.

Sure, I was contrasting with having thousands of cars just sitting around with no destination/ buyer. Especially since they paid OT to keep the line running in October. Export delay vs no demand anywhere.

Versus: Hey, demand is down, let's pay extra to make more cars for that region.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I struggle to imagine a macro environment so bad that TSLA's quarter-extrapolated Q4 P/E is crushed down to 24 in January.

This would be on the back of blowout 75% QoQ earnings growth and strong guidance for continued growth in 2023.

If that does happen, I won't eat a hot dog, but I will get a job again so I can pay my bills with income instead of stock and then load up on '24 and '25 calls all through 2023.

I just got a call yesterday to do 3D animations for Boeing (contract work). I can't imagine actually going to work in the old sense ever again. Corporate nonsense and cover-ups everywhere. I'd rather try to sell hot dogs to vegetarians, maybe near some water, with some satellite data and playing along to good tunes.

 

[ZeApelido]

Hello everyone, first-time poster here but long-time reader!

Sure has been rough lately with everything Elon-related unfortunately, but thank you all for keeping it real in here.

Hopefully, this slaughter ends soon. While a lot of the things happening are a perfect storm of a lot of unfortunate events this year, I hope we'll come out of it soon and back to looking at the fundamentals.

Such a calm, logical response. Not what I would expect from the tropical, hot-headed culture of Sweden.

 

[tslagreen]

I normally say these are the kind of comments that signal we're close to a bottom; when the stock has gotten crushed far more than we ever thought possible - but our macro environment throws that out the window, I think.

And, CPI numbers come out tomorrow. Hope they come in cooler than expected.

 

[thx1139]

Elon is the Twitter overhang

 

[Webeevdrivers]

No mercy from EM it appears.

Whatever he needs to sell we will sell and so be it.

What if he needs ten billion instead of five?

150 would be in the bag then.

I said here a few weeks ago if it went below 200 we are buyers again at 155. Thinking we better get ready. 3 or 4 more days maybe.

Then again, If we get an amazing 4 th quarter that hits all the forecasts we will be below 100 by mid January. ((It’s tesla logic).

 

[Nocturnal]

-Not a political post-

Looks likely that the Dems will retain control of the Senate. That's good or neutral for the IRA, which is good for TSLA. Even if the Republicans wanted to kill it they would have to do so after it being in place for 2 years which is much more difficult.

 

[Stretch2727]

“If they had a demand problem they would reduce production.”

Musk has said in the past that Tesla will choose unit volume over margin if that choice needs to be made. in other words Tesla is committed to always prioritizing increased produnction, and will lower pricing to sell that increased volume if necessary.

Yep, and I remember one cringe worthy comment from Elon on the earnings call a few years back that 1% net margin was ok!

 

[SO16]

-Not a political post-

Looks likely that the Dems will retain control of the Senate. That's good or neutral for the IRA, which is good for TSLA. Even if the Republicans wanted to kill it they would have to do so after it being in place for 2 years which is much more difficult.

Georgia senate going to runoff election Dec 6. So more possible uncertainty for a few more weeks in this area as well.

 

[Matias]

Q3 non-GAAP EPS: $1.05
Annualized: $4.20
TSLA: $179
Current P/E ratio: 43

I have $1.85 non-GAAP EPS estimated for Q4. P/E based on that would be just 24
P/E of 24 means that a 4.1% annual dividend or buyback could be funded with profits
The S&P 500 TTM P/E is 20

TSLA looks like a screaming buy to me, especially in light of the fact that in the past TSLA has quickly recovered from every Elon sale blip within a week or two.

Not investment advice.

That is if depression doesn't affect sales.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It is now just a 10-day train

Is that the route through Russia?

 

[larmor]

-Not a political post-

Looks likely that the Dems will retain control of the Senate. That's good or neutral for the IRA, which is good for TSLA. Even if the Republicans wanted to kill it they would have to do so after it being in place for 2 years which is much more difficult.

And every party will claim victory when the factory starts pumping out Cybertrucks and Semis...

 

[Matias]

This would be on the back of blowout 75% QoQ earnings growth and strong guidance for continued growth in 2023.

How do you know Tesla's guidance for 2023?

 

[ElectricIAC]

That is if depression doesn't affect sales.

Remember how often Tesla was announcing price breaks in 2020 going into 2021?

Pepperidge farm remembers.