Fair enough. I’ll ask the mods to delete my post.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Remind me, how did the Press treat Volkswagen after Dieselgate? How many advertizers cancelled the day after VW Group CEO Martin Winterkorn was released from Federal Prison? How are VWs sales doing now? How's their EVs plans announced a decade ago?
VW buys ads. VW owners buy oil, and spend $$ at dealerships. Jus' sayin'. Some pigs are more equal than others.
Favguy
Member
Speak for yourself, I'm staying a grumpy ba****d until at least $450.
navguy12
Active Member
…and the issues with HF and German cars not being problematic in this context are due to events/decisions/opinions over 80 years ago versus 8 days ago.
Favguy
Member
It may be 80+ years since the Nazi's founded VW, but it's only a very small handful of years since lying about filthy Diesel emissions...
navguy12
Active Member
Agreed. But the context was anti semitism by captains of industry prior to 1945.
This should free up Tesla AI resources. Fewer versions out there, learning even faster, likely more onboard memory. I bet the FSD team shifts some heads over to Optimus soon after V11 rollout. Freakin jazzed!
navguy12
Active Member
Will this improve current NOA functionality?
I have the option to ask for FSD beta (paid for back in 2019) but will hold off for a while longer.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Do you have evidence that fleet buyers will be getting these deals?
The battery capacity for each variant is a published spec. The Pro (base) variant has 98 kWh of usable capacity according to Ford’s own spec sheet as well as the range and efficiency numbers Ford reported to the EPA.
The spec sheet does say fleet buyers have the option of buying the extended range battery for the Pro, but that’s probably going to cost extra and not really be the “base version”. On the XLT trim, adding the Extended Range option slaps $12.5K extra onto the price plus a mandatory $9K of other bundled options. For the Lariat it’s $11K extra for the range.
Ford’s officially targeted Lightning production capacity is only 150K/year. I doubt fleet buyers are going to get priority over all the people who want to blow $60-100k on the XLT, Lariat and Platinum trims, because those will earn much better margins.
Do you have evidence whatsoever showing that the CT is not being sold yet due to battery-related “inability” rather than choice? How do you reconcile this belief with Tesla’s repeated statements that batteries are not currently the limiting factor, that new products have been delayed due to chip constraints and crazy demand for S3XY models?
Q1’22 Earnings Call
Q3’22 earnings call
By the way, do you still have no investment position in TSLA and all you care about is when you can get your Cybertruck? If so then I’m really curious why you’re here posting on the investment thread instead of somewhere more suited to your interests like:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/forums/cybertruck.314/
https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/
https://www.reddit.com/r/cybertruck/
Last edited:
Sure- it is no secret in the Ford buying world. Lots of people trying to figure out how to do a fleet buy but it is fairly restrictive. You have to be a defined fleet customer, have a certain number of vehicles, etc. If you have a friend with a large company of fleet vehicles (landscaper-large one, big maid services, etc etc) they can make a call to Ford and they'll get that opportunity. They might be resale restricted though...I bet they are. We are so small we don't qualify though I looked into it. Fleet salesperson returned call to discuss, seems pretty standard. Right now they are making as many high end lariats with as small a pack as they can shove into the market. Until 2025 Ford has some serious battery constraint issues. However, it opens up in a major way then and by 2028 they think they can do 2 million a year. I take that as very impressive, from 0 in 2020 to 2 mln in 2028. We'll see.Do you have evidence that fleet buyers will be getting these deals?
The battery capacity for each variant is a published spec. The Pro (base) variant has 98 kWh of usable capacity according to Ford’s own spec sheet as well as the range and efficiency numbers Ford reported to the EPA.
The spec sheet does say fleet buyers have the option of buying the extended range battery for the Pro, but that’s probably going to cost extra and not really be the “base version”. On the XLT trim, adding the Extended Range option slaps $12.5K extra onto the price plus a mandatory $9K of other bundled options. For the Lariat it’s $11K extra for the range.
Ford’s officially targeted Lightning production capacity is only 150K/year. I doubt fleet buyers are going to get priority over all the people who want to blow $60-100k on the XLT, Lariat and Platinum trims, because those will earn much better margins.
Do you have evidence whatsoever showing that the CT is not being sold yet due to battery-related “inability” rather than choice? How do you reconcile this belief with Tesla’s repeated statements that batteries are not currently the limiting factor, that new products have been delayed due to chip constraints and crazy demand for S3XY models?
Q1’22 Earnings Call
Q3’22 earnings call
By the way, do you still have no investment position in TSLA and all you care about is when you can get your Cybertruck? If so then I’m really curious why you’re here posting on the investment thread instead of somewhere more suited to your interests like:
CT- the fact that they just hope to get to 5k packs a week run rate by dec 31. That's for the model y pack. Half the size of the CT pack. So they'd launch with only 2.5k battery packs a week. As long as they are not making the CT they are not battery constrained on the 4680. They are amazingly agile and Panasonic keeps improving the 2170 production so they make different packs, they use LiFePo, etc. The min they have to have 4680 they are constrained.
And here are the cash cows sales during the first 9 months of the year:
Model S (Q1, Q2, Q3): 3,495 , 5,791 , 7,863
Model X (Q1, Q2, Q3): 1,225 , 3,791 , 7,467
Model Y (Q1, Q2, Q3): 21,812 , 43,320 , 61,544
Going to be interesting to see how long before Tesla passes Toyota for most vehicle sales in the state.
RT
Captkerosene
Member
Here is proof that even at its current iteration, FSD can work (sometimes).
I too have driven 2.4 on snow covered country roads. 1) It goes too fast, starts sliding and disconnects. It has no idea about proper speeds on slippery roads. 2) Wanders all over the road and onto the shoulder. 3) You must disconnect before opposite direction traffic goes by because the car is too close to (or across) the centerline. 3) Tries to drive you into a ditch in a 90 degree turn because it doesn't know where the road is. 4) Rear camera gets covered in snow and will not work when you need to back up.
FSD does not work on snow covered country roads.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
FSD Beta v11 Release Notes confirm that it is Single Stack (replaces the legacy highway stack which is over four years old)
This is exciting stuff! Looking forward to the rollout to the rest of the fleet when Standard Autopilot features are switched over to be a subset of the FSD program. Then, the data gathering capabilities of thisfully operational battlestation hdw+software architecture will become apparent.
Cheers to the Longs!
This is exciting stuff! Looking forward to the rollout to the rest of the fleet when Standard Autopilot features are switched over to be a subset of the FSD program. Then, the data gathering capabilities of this
Cheers to the Longs!
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
What I was asking is whether the extended range pack for fleet buyers will be the “base version” as you had stated.
Are you saying fleet buyers will be able to get the bigger battery for the same price as retail buyers pay for the base Pro version?
The 4680 run rate at the end of 2022 is irrelevant, because CT is scheduled for initial production next summer. The CT run rate is unlikely to reach 2.5K+ CTs per week until the end of 2023 at the earliest. Berlin and Texas took more than half a year to reach that level with the Model Y, which is a product Tesla already had a lot of experience with. 4680 volume will be multiples higher than it is today by the time CT production consumes any significant amount of supply.
A month ago Elon said point blank to investors “We don't anticipate this [4680 ramp] being any limiting factor for the Cybertruck or anything else.” You are asserting that the opposite is true. Is that because you think Elon committed blatant fraud on the earnings call? Or is it because you think his estimate of 4680 constraints is incorrect and yours is more accurate? If so, how did you reach this conclusion?
Do you still not have an investment in TSLA? Why are you here?
Hussein is such a tease! Full release...notes please!FSD Beta v11 Release Notes confirm that it is Single Stack (replaces the legacy highway stack which is over four years old)
This is exciting stuff! Looking forward to the rollout to the rest of the fleet when Standard Autopilot features are switched over to be a subset of the FSD program. Then, the data gathering capabilities of thisfully operational battlestationhdw+software architecture will become apparent.
Cheers to the Longs!
Optimeer
Member
FSD Beta v11 Release Notes
Edit: Text from same link as already posted by EVMeister
2022.40.5 Official Tesla Release Notes - Software Updates
Tesla software update 2022.40.5 (FSD Beta 11) includes FSD Beta v11 Release Notes, Full Self-Driving (Beta).
t.co
Partial release notes have become available and are available below. More to come soon.
- Enabled FSD Beta on highway. This unifies the vision and planning stack on and off-highway and replaces the legacy highway stack, which is over four years old. The legacy highway stack still relies on several single-camera and single-frame networks, and was setup to handle simple lane-specific maneuvers. FSD Beta's multi-camera video networks and next-gen planner, that allows for more complex agent interactions with less reliance on lanes, make way for adding more intelligent behaviors, smoother control and better decision making.
Improved Occupancy Network's recall for close by obstacles and precision in severe weather conditions with 4x increase in transformer spatial resolution, 20% increase in image featurizer capacity, improved side camera calibration, and 260k more video training clips (real-world and simulation).
- Reduced the predicted velocity error of very close-by motorcycles, scooters, wheelchairs, and pedestrians by 63.6%. To do this, we introduced a new dataset of simulated adversarial high speed VRU interactions. This update improves autopilot control around fast-moving and cutting-in VRUs.
- Improved creeping profile with higher jerk when creeping starts and ends.
- Improved control for nearby obstacles by predicting continuous distance to static geometry with the general static obstacle network.
- Reduced vehicle "parked" attribute error rate by 17%, achieved by increasing the dataset size by 14%. Also improved brake light accuracy.
- Improved clear-to-go scenario velocity error by 5% and highway scenario velocity error by 10%, achieved by tuning loss function targeted at improving performance in difficult scenarios.
- Improved detection and control for open car doors.
- Improved smoothness through turns by using an optimization-based approach to decide which road lines are irrelevant for c[unreadable] given lateral and longitudinal acceleration and jerk limits as we[unreadable] vehicle kinematics.
- Improved stability of the FSD UI visualizations by optimizing ethernet data transfer pipeline by 15%.
- Improved recall for vehicles directly behind ego, and improv precision for vehicle detection network.
Last edited:
Assuming this is a funny... it made me laugh, then made me think:Already did ... they doing TWTr code reviews now
- As an investor and citizen, TWTr is where the AI resources should be placed short-term (elections, stock value, Tesla brand image).
- As an FSD user and the risk of getting it wrong after full release, I'd have to disagree.
Both are important to the mission IMO, well deserving of a Blitz style attack in quick succession. That style is not new.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
