Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
If you know anyone that has been passing around this Tesla China rumor, it is completely false and FUD:

"Online rumor citing Tesla inside source: Model 3 price to be cut to ¥ 219.9K Model Y price to be cut to ¥ 249.9K (163)"

1668263278287.png



"Tesla China: The online rumor on Model 3/Y price cuts is not true. h/t
@tiantianyueye"

 
In looking at the California sales numbers, the only Tesla laggard is the Model X. It’s doing well, but it’s not dominating its segment like the 3,Y and S.

Our family has owned all four cars, and the only one we sold was the X. For us, the gull wing doors were a net negative. Tesla would do better to reimagine a luxury large SUV to replace the X, but the segment is too small to make that a high priority now.
We’ve owned the SEX portion of the lineup. The 3P is hands down the best built vehicle I’ve ever driven. The S was very luxurious and we hated selling it but chose to upgrade to the X for the ease of getting kids in and out of car seats.

Those gull wing doors are a back saver for carseat owners, but in fairness if it wasn’t for the free supercharging I’d probably have traded it in for a Y (and some more TSLA 🪑 ).

All that said; my neighbor next door has a refreshed X and that car is on a whole different level than our ‘20 X. It looks the same on the outside, but I assure you, it’s not. In my opinion the new model X will gain popularity as it ages. It’s in a class of its own and AFAIC there isn’t a better SUV to be had in the market for any price. (For reference a coworker just paid $120k for a jeep wagoneer gasser!🤯)

My only concern is durability. Hopefully they’ve sorted out the issue with the front half shafts. I’m on my 3rd set at 60k miles. Next time is on my dime…so now i drive like icannot_enough.
 
Last edited:
Picked up my Model Y yesterday! (After waiting over a year since ordering, see sig) The lot was PACKED with new Tesla vehicles so much that they had to park on 1 side of each row to fit in all the new cars. They make the buying experience so easy and if I wasn't doing an unnecessarily thorough investigation of the car I could have easily had the sale completed in less than 30 minutes (vs 5+ hours at the Honda dealership the last time I bought a car).

Even though there are a ton of differences between my 2016 MS and this 2023 MY, I was able to easily transition and start driving the car. Someone else who has only driven ICE cars watched the new Tesla Essential videos and drove the car and instantly fell in love.

It's amazing how much total addressable market (TAM) there is still out there for Tesla vehicles. ⚡🌊

1668263913328.jpeg
 
We’ve owned the SEX portion of the lineup. The 3P is hands down the best built vehicle I’ve ever driven. The S was very luxurious and we hated selling it but chose to upgrade to the X for the ease of getting kids in and out of car seats.

Those gull wing doors are a back saver for carseat owners, but in fairness if it wasn’t for the free supercharging I’d probably have traded it in for a Y (and some more TSLA 🪑 ).

All that said; my neighbor next door has a refreshed X and that car is on a whole different level than our ‘20 X. It looks the same on the outside, but I assure you, it’s not. In my opinion the new model X will gain popularity as it ages. It’s in a class of its own and AFAIC there isn’t a better SUV to be had in the market for any price. (For reference a coworker just paid $120k for a jeep wagoneer gasser!🤯)

My only concern is durability. Hopefully they’ve sorted out the issue with the front half shafts. I’m on my 3rd set at 60k miles. Next time is on my dime…so now i drive like icannot_enough.
We like the Y better than the 3P- we had for a while. Many factors, basically just a better car.
 
Sorry Everett, but I trust Elon much more than you, or the pillow guy. I think you're a bit of a salesman yourself - can you be trusted?

View attachment 873817
As a jewish guy, born in Brooklyn and living within a cult in Southern Utah for most of the last 42 years. I have been shot at. My children were shot at. My home vandalized. My likeness hung by the neck from a power pole in town. All for protecting the land and the environment I don't really give a *sugar* who trusts me.
 
As a jewish guy, born in Brooklyn and living within a cult in Southern Utah for most of the last 42 years. I have been shot at. My children were shot at. My home vandalized. My likeness hung by the neck from a power pole in town. All for protecting the land and the environment I don't really give a *sugar* who trusts me.
As long as your not TeslaQ I trust you. Sorry about the bs you and your family have had to deal with. Nobody deserves that.
 
Picked up my Model Y yesterday! (After waiting over a year since ordering, see sig) The lot was PACKED with new Tesla vehicles so much that they had to park on 1 side of each row to fit in all the new cars. They make the buying experience so easy and if I wasn't doing an unnecessarily thorough investigation of the car I could have easily had the sale completed in less than 30 minutes (vs 5+ hours at the Honda dealership the last time I bought a car).

Even though there are a ton of differences between my 2016 MS and this 2023 MY, I was able to easily transition and start driving the car. Someone else who has only driven ICE cars watched the new Tesla Essential videos and drove the car and instantly fell in love.

It's amazing how much total addressable market (TAM) there is still out there for Tesla vehicles. ⚡🌊

View attachment 873820
Congrats! How is the new "Comfort" suspension?
 
Mostly, what you say is all very sensible. But the NRA MAGA folks don't have the discretionary income that the champagne liberals do. In the future, that won't matter, as Tesla covers the entire addressable market.
if they can afford F150s surely they can afford CT ;)

(waiting for 1st country song about riding the CT ... to pick up the Dixie chicks ... :) :) )
 
I still have many thousands of shares of TSLA that I bought way back in 2012, so I am still in pretty good shape. I have never sold a single share and have been adding as recent as last week. Normally when Elon has been on a twitter, or otherwise tirade, that offends some people, I just ignored it and tell myself "you take the bad with the good, and overall the good has been better than the bad". But this last two weeks, I have begun to feel that Elon's actions really are damaging the brand. In the last two weeks, I have one friend who sold her 2014 Model S. She said the comments about Paul Pelosi pushed her over the edge. Then I had two friends cancel their Model Y orders. Today, Tesla called my sister to let her know her Model Y was finally available, she cancelled. Her reason was the meme Elon put on twitter of Kanye, Trump, and Elon with swords and some Three Musketeers comment (I actually have not seen it). My sister is Jewish and she told me many of her Jewish friends felt offended.

Anyway, I really do finally feel annoyed and concerned about Elon's behavior. I am holding my TSLA as I think (hope) this will blow over but I do wish that I had sold out when my TSLA was worth several million $$ more than it is worth today. Just sayin', me, Tesla fanatic with many, many referals, holding since 2012, even I am getting really tired of these tangents that Elon goes on.
I’ve been a round for a while too and your thoughts echo my sentiments exactly. Usually it was just a roller-coaster, but recent actions seem a bit beyond the pale.
 
As a jewish guy, born in Brooklyn and living within a cult in Southern Utah for most of the last 42 years. I have been shot at. My children were shot at. My home vandalized. My likeness hung by the neck from a power pole in town. All for protecting the land and the environment I don't really give a *sugar* who trusts me.
I trust Rob Mauer. I trust the posters on this board to give me a good sense of the business model. Most of all I trust Elon's mission. I have always been proud to be a Tesla investor since I put all my money into this company in 2016. I have never sold any of my shares. I drive my model Y all over this county and pass the young bucks in their loud diesel pickups and laugh at them.
 
There’s a lot of nuance in underwear and snowblowers and I’d rather learn in the comfort of my home.
TMI.

We will not transition if he coddles us, holds our hands, or pussy foots around. He’s going to have to drag us kicking and screaming.
Yeah, this part is sad but true.
 
My thoughts in brief.

Elon's words are less important than his deeds.
We are in a world where all flaws are amplified.

As individuals, we are barraged constantly with messages to make us angry and hate.
It is how we are manipulated. Elon more than any of us. None of us are immune to this.

He is creating positive things that will outlast him and all of us.
His superpower is picking people that can make his vision a reality.
I believe his core values remain intact. (and I value them)
His human flaws are also evident (and I often strongly disagree)

I am still holding and want to be part of this...
I believe giphy.gif

I value this forum.
Have a good weekend all.
It is time for me to go outside and recharge.
 
I make my living off the market and, even before I retired over 20 years ago, I made more money from the market than my earnings from working for around a decade before that. I don't blame the market for being disconnected from reality, I credit it for that. Because if the market reflected reality, I would have no particular advantage, I could only achieve market average returns and I would not have been able to retire early so easily. But the market's irrational focus on the short-term, and it's strong tendency to be affected by fake narratives driven by interests that are threatened by disrupters, turns the market into a reliable money-printing machine. All that's required is an ability to spot the fake narratives, some investment capital, and some time.

The financial press will always minimize the chances of success of the disruptors, in favor of the incumbents. For example, in the early 1990's Microsoft was recognized as a strong growth company with ever increasing revenues, and yet IBM was continually expected to take back their rightful throne from the scrappy upstart. Therefore, MSFT was "over-valued" (when, in fact, it's share price did not properly account for the size of expected future revenues or the degree of certainty those revenues had).

Other examples include Qualcomm in the mid-1990's (with a superior new, more efficient, method of encoding cellular data), and Apple (with a sleeker and more versatile form factor for a smart phone). The financial press said Motorola and Nokia, not Qualcomm, had the superior cellular technology (now all wireless uses Qualcomm's spread spectrum technology) and that Apple's device was novel but too expensive, had no physical buttons, and no one needed a computer in their pocket anyway. To profit from these disconnects from reality, one did not need to be early, they simply needed to see the disconnect between reality and the media stories that protected and championed the entrenched interests. This is exactly what is still going on today with Tesla. Even the Federal Government is in on it, trying to help out the entrenched interests at the expense of Tesla. EV subsidies had a place in the twenty-teens, no longer in the twenty-twenties.

This is why the press cannot drop their narrative that "the competition is coming" while simultaneously chiding Tesla for always being late. Anyone with their eye's half-open can see it's the competition that's late, not Tesla. There was supposed to be a steady stream of superior, high-volume EV's displacing Tesla by 2019 and 2020, but they never arrived. Instead, it was Tesla that continually increased production beyond that of the incumbents. This was 100% foreseeable, it was not a lucky guess. The competition will continue to show up with too little, too late. They cannot show up with high volume production until they figure out how to make EV's for less. Sure, eventually there will be meaningful competition but it's still a long way off and it will not be the incumbents who figure it out, it will be new disruptors. The incumbents only chance is massive Government life support.

People who trust and listen to the financial press and the MSM, deserve exactly what they have coming to them. Because the financial press/MSM is not owned by the disruptors but is beholden to both Wall Street and, even more importantly in the long-term, businesses that will become disrupted, the incumbents. Once that is understood, the media no longer holds a spell over you and the distorted reality they propagate, once identified, can be used to easily print large sums of money over time. The key ingredient to make this stream of profits reliable, is time. Those who view the market as a short-term casino will have results all over the board, with some losing everything, while others make out like a bandit. Others will break even with great relief. Luck plays a large roll so it's unwise to commit large sums to the casino, it's much better to play the long game which makes it possible for the odds to be strongly in your favor over a lifetime. Because luck can run out while disconnects from reality always trend back toward reality. One is reliable, one is not.
Who wins the race, the tortoise or the hare? Consistency is key, compounding returns over time wins the game.

No one knows when the markets will be riding high again but it's likely quite some time, many years, until the next market peak and not too terribly far from the market bottom. Those who invest in TSLA now, or are already invested, will have outsized returns over the next 5 years (and likely far beyond). Those who are taken in by the MSM's fear, uncertainty and doubt cannot properly assign risk/reward. Because fear. People imagine fear and let it grow into a monster they cannot escape from. By the time they tame the fear they will be paying $260 for a stock they could have had for $180-$190. There will be many right here that keep buying between $300-$600/share, because then the fear will be gone. That's not how you maximize returns.
Awesome post! It's what keeps me all in with (almost) no fear. This is a life-long stock, eclipsing prior examples except for maybe the wheel, but better than electricity itself.

I'm likely nowhere near your stage of wealth, but I already feel some of the guilt that accompanies wealth. It's the main reason I didn't want a Model X as it's too Hollywood and clearly more than we need. And yet I didn't used to feel this way at all... growing up wanting the coolest toy, bike, car, or boat on the lake. As a way to manage this, I think about a higher role to help others out, and see it as a shared responsibility to lift more boats.

Many will quickly dismiss this wealth imbalance as par for the course, live and learn, told ya so, ha-ha-ha. Those foolish traders who fund this sort of a return for the street-wise investor can be called naive and in many cases can't afford gambling short-term much less a lottery ticket. But that resembles the look of some fat tycoon or swindling car salesman. Others might see their new wealth as well deserved after battling through rough times or getting screwed by someone else for no reason. I get it, they're still working through a forgiveness phase and may never come around or learn to share.

Gradually, I've come to believe there's a role for us in this new world order and constantly exploring what that might be. Maybe it's to provide shelter, or improve efficiency of space travel. It could be to provide more employment, a new trade school, or help teach kids what they deserve much earlier in life. (K-12 is so slow and antiquated, free pass through the system yet there's no P.E., they feed them sugar, no sleep, all just to fit into schedules as organized babysitters! :rolleyes:)

I think about Elon's timeline and believe he went through similar stages in life, with the ultimate focus on saving planet and humanity. I'm pretty sure he had the money bug at first in the McLaren days, then likely became bored with it as money became easier.

(If you're still mad at Elon the Tesla CEO, you won't like this next part. I happen to admire his efforts in Twitter. The attacks on Tesla and TSLA were and are still inevitable, not because of Twitting as that's just today's excuse. He sold some for good cause. I also sold at one time, and for not even close to a noble cause.)

His leadership may eventually point us in the right direction on how to help. I mean, what if FSD could be used to transport an elderly person in need, no charge? Let's face it, there is no way we're going to put a million miles on any vehicle, why not offer it out for a better cause? The more I think about this, I do believe Elon could (and may) give direction in the future on how we can help one another.

Meanwhile, my empathy for the poor or undeserving grows stronger yet... even after losing 1/2 my wealth this year (but only because I know this dip is temporary). Now, when the stock rises, I automatically think I can do more good. And ya wanna know what the main bottleneck to sharing is? People to organize and distribute it, not the lack of money. In many ways, it's similar to food waste.

Anyway, not to play the guilt trip on you or anyone here - I'm just processing and sharing on a beautiful Saturday morning while looking forward to the future and the necessary changes to coming. I think I've personally grown more on this forum and EV experience than at any other time in my life. Many thanks to the folks here who helped me see the world for what it is - who helped pull the wool off my eyes.