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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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I think you're referring to CCS rather than J1772. Is that correct?This is huge, and I don't want to hear from all the naysayers claiming this is in direct conflict with Tesla's Patent policy.
Let the fun begin! Legacy auto will continue using the clunky J-1772 in an attempt to "isolate" Tesla. I don't see how they can change anyway, considering they do not control the DC Fast Chargers that use the J-1772 standard.
Tesla will keep making and selling cars in greater numbers and expanding their Supercharger Network in proportion to fleet size. Maybe Arcimoto will be the first to announce adoption of the Tesla Standard because their 3-wheel vehicles are so small the J-1772 portlet requires a significant amount of space (and even more if you want to bring a charging connector with you on the road).
What do you all think? Will the J-1772 standard ever catch up to the Tesla charging standard in N. America in terms of deployed charging stalls and/or cars in the fleet?
J1772 is not really so cumbersome, but is not a fast charging standard.
Check the wiki:
You can buy one today, it's like buying an early model s. Sure the base version has 230...that's just battery factory constraints and marketing. They'll sell you a base version with 330 if you are a fleet buyer and take 10. The min that Tesla actually sells a truck that cuts into the Lightning order book is the moment that Ford will have to increase the base range. It's all about batteries and Tesla's inability to launch the CT before Ford is a simple reflection of this, Tesla is struggling with batteries, all the other OEMs were late building plants.
30+ battery factories coming in the USA alone and that means some 10 million plus EVs coming. Most will not be teslas.
Since the goal of things is to create sustainable transport and Tesla can not do it by themselves it is a requirement to get others to move. Tesla did that. That's the great accomplishment of Tesla. Maybe some people make some profits in the stock. Super. Killing Ford and GM should not be the goal. If you want to know who's really a problem in the transition look to Japan and to some extent over to Germany. GM and Ford have floundered around wasting time, money, and energy on EVs but it seems as if Ford at least is moving very quickly in it's transition. From nothing to something in just a few years.
Last point here- the Lightning is a fine work truck. I've had to buy one due to a deer but I really had hoped to get a CT. Years later, no CT. I could at least buy a Lightning and it will do the job and I won't be buying diesel so good for the earth. I'll be shocked if Ford has a demand problem in the next 5 years.
The CCS1 connector is a derivative of the J1772 AC only connector with two DC fast changing pins added on.I think you're referring to CCS rather than J1772. Is that correct?
J1772 is not really so cumbersome, but is not a fast charging standard.
Check the wiki:
@mongo Happy Sunday morning to you. Thanks for that, while on the subject what's the progress, world wide, on fast charging standards? Will fast charging continue to be a differentiator for Tesla?
That would disqualify all German cars and remind her about Henry ford.
Of course it's a bubble.
The world is full of bubbles: it's a great model on how to understand the world. We live in a sort of multidimensional Hilbert space of intersecating bubbles... You are at the center of plenty of bubbles yourself.
Now, the real question is: how big, and/or impactful, are the bubbles that are "hurt" by Elon shenanigans?
Can they hurt the mission?
I personally am quite scared about this: I don't find particularly remote the worst case scenario in which a underslept Elon is too stretched in the management of 3 very very different companies, and while the media feast on the carcass of a very difficult Twitter situation, Tesla brand and numbers (so, fundamentals) take a hit.
If they take a hit, WS will again feast on TSLA, feasting on the carcass of a self-fulfilling narrative of a "failing" Tesla.
Then Uncle Leo is forced to sell, with billions on margin.
Then things go dire for months, with the recession etc.
My personal worry is that Elon had the hubris to take on too many powerful enemies all at once, and there is the chance he'll lose many battles (don't know about the war, but this could go on for months to come).
There was a generation of Americans that (mostly) would not buy a German car. In my grandparents S. Florida retirement community I can't recall ever seeing a Mercedes. Plenty of Ford/Lincoln, Cadillacs, Oldsmobiles etc. though. I wouldn't discount Gene's experience.
Fast charging seems to be converging to single ecosystems per region with North America having the last zone of dual standards.
Outside North America, Tesla has mostly adopted the common local charging connector standard. In Europe V3 SpC use CCS2. In China it's GB/T.
Tesla Charge Ports & Plugs from China, North America, and Europe Compared (for Models S, X, 3, & Y)
Elon was never a fan of SpC as a moat, so I expect more OEM agnostic charger installations from Tesla. I think the quality, convenience, renewable usage, and reliability of Tesla brand fast charging will continue to be a differentiator.
Tesla also has good numbers in the miles or km per hour charge rate arena which can be a vehicle level differentiator (for long distance travel).
Nobody claimed that humans are logical or consistent creatures. It doesn't matter that other car companies were associated with bad things. The adage "Perception = Reality" seems apt in this case.
Good thing Elon Musk owns a social media company which is capable of alter people's perception then...
Just commenting on the above:
I have this formula for coping with Million Dollar losses
, here it goes:MD Ratio.
1Million/Delta (where Delta is your overall portfolio value of Shares & Options. Each Share has Delta of 1) - this assumes 100% Tesla portfolio or just a single stock for simplicity
So if you have 10,000 shares, MD Ratio will be 1,000,000/10,000 = 100. So if Tesla goes up 100$, you will be a million $ richer (& that's why right now you are a million $ poorer
).Point being, the larger your losses, the quicker the gains. cheers!!
MD of 1-10 = whale
MD of 10-50 = shark
MD of 50-100 = dolphin
I think TMC has a few whales and many sharks and dolphins.+ if SP goes back to 300, how many millions more will you have gained
?
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Krugerrand
Meow
I don’t trust salesmen. Their livelihood depends on me buying something, so naturally they’re going to want to sell me something, and in many cases something I don’t need or want.
You know who else are salesmen? Everyone on WallStreet. First they sell you what they want you to buy, but then they sell you what they want you to sell. Tricky buggers!
Just yesterday I heard my first Christian Financial Adviser ad on the radio. I had no idea that God wanted me to diversify in these tough economical times, but apparently he does. God’s got a whole slew of salesmen working for him and they don’t just work on Sundays.
You know who else are salesmen? Everyone in finance. Everyone in media, TV, radio, every You Tuber, Influencer, and dude/dudette with a Patreon account. Every CEO of every company; Barra, Farley, Diess before he lost his job, Bezos, Zuckerburg, and let’s not forget our favorite Trevor Milton. Sandy Munro is a salesman, Rob, Gali, SMR, Chicken, Troy, the list is endless.
Heck, my neighbor’s a salesman according to the for sale sign in the window of his 1980 something pickup at the end of his driveway, but realistically there’s just not much foot traffic up on The Mountain so that sucker will likely sit there for another 20 years. Nature is doing a good job of reclaiming it. The pine growing up through the passenger side is 6” in diameter now.
My favorite salesman is one that acknowledges my presence when I walk into an establishment and then ***** ***, but not too much in case I have a question. If I do have a question, I just want the truth. If that takes more than a single, simple sentence (basically three words or less ie., See Spot run) I walk, even if I really want the item. I’ll sacrifice for a teaching moment then drive to the next town and try again. Truth.
Mostly, I’ve already done my research before I buy so don’t need a salesman. A lot of times I know more than the salesman about the product I want. There’s a lot of nuance in underwear and snowblowers and I’d rather learn in the comfort of my home. Basically, it really boils down to the product needing to sell itself to get me to buy. Nothing more annoying than your underwear crawling up your butt while blowing snow. It’s an hour long process getting things righted.
What’s my point besides I don’t trust salesmen? Patience. I’m getting to it.
Your *profession* is as a salesman and you feel there are certain rules to abide by within that profession. (I also think rules should be viewed more like loose guidelines and that many times the rules are made to be broken, but that’s a different post.) However, we’re all salesmen in one form or another and we don’t abide by the rules of the trade in executing our sale - including Elon Musk.
You just tried to sell us a story in your post that Elon is a *professional* salesman, therefore he must follow the Salesmen’s Handbook Of Rules And Conduct or risk losing customers. He is not, does not consciously try to be, and as you’ve clearly argued he actually sucks at it.
What he does try to sell us is a personal narrative of what mankind needs to do to live long and prosper based on what he sees happening and that requires him to break every rule that’s ever existed to get us to buy it. That is a big distinction for me. Why? In no particular order: Money honesty. Unabashed openness. Thinking out loud. Willingness to make mistakes and be wrong. Stand in the face of fire. Unwavering love for mankind. I trust Elon for being/doing all those things and many more, none of which are deemed positive traits in a professional salesmen.
I understand from your professional salesman’s view he’s risked and continues to risk losing customers of his products and has lost customers. I’m telling you, there is no other way than to bash us all upside the head. We will not transition if he coddles us, holds our hands, or pussy foots around. He’s going to have to drag us kicking and screaming. A lost customer to Tesla because someone got their undies in a wad over a political opinion of 140 characters or less will be a customer for Rivian, or Lucid, or BYD, whomever manages to survive - and that’s okay. IT’S OKAY. How many times people have confidently announced Tesla can’t do it all, to turn around and complain because Tesla lost a customer in their third cousin twice removed through marriage is absurd, illogical, mushy brain stuff.
It’s okay. Direct those family and friends and neighbors and colleagues to another EV, to another EV stock. Stop complaining about Elon Musk and what he’s doing or not doing to your satisfaction.
Go be a salesman for human kind!
The only CEO/Salesman who has fared worse in the media than Elon is the My Pillow guy.
Krugerrand
Meow
How do you sleep at night?
Favguy
Member
Talking of losses, with regard to those who invested in 2012 is nonsensical. There are no losses! My own holding is worth several million less in value than it was at the high, a year or so ago. So what? Early investors are still up (on paper) by over 100x. Once again... there are no losses involved here. A more positive way to approach it is to think that even here, probably close to the bottom of a bear market, we are still up over 10,000% Let that sink in.Just commenting on the above:
I have this formula for coping with Million Dollar losses
MD Ratio.
1Million/Delta (where Delta is your overall portfolio value of Shares & Options. Each Share has Delta of 1) - this assumes 100% Tesla portfolio or just a single stock for simplicity
So if you have 10,000 shares, MD Ratio will be 1,000,000/10,000 = 100. So if Tesla goes up 100$, you will be a million $ richer (& that's why right now you are a million $ poorer
Point being, the larger your losses, the quicker the gains. cheers!!
MD of 1-10 = whale
MD of 10-50 = shark
MD of 50-100 = dolphin
+ if SP goes back to 300, how many millions more will you have gained
This has to be fake news. We Californians are all tree-hugging, billionaire-bashing liberals who refuse to buy Tesla cars because the CEO said something offensive on Twitter.
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