I foresee a job offer if you apply. And you're going to love it!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
+7.82%, It's a good start...
For those of you in the US- have a nice Thanksgiving
For those of you in the US- have a nice Thanksgiving
Tesla job would likely mean no more creative writing and utubing in public
I had a bit of an epiphany from Orthosurg banning himself from buying more on margin last night- I'm banning myself from more margin as well. I'm not buying more LEAPS or common stock either. It's TSLL only for me as funds trickle into my cash acct. At least until we get back to 400. I think it will compound much more than it's 1.5x daily leverage from this low zone over the next couple of years. Happy Thanksgiving, all!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
But he won't be allowed to continue posting in this fashion on social media, or blogging about the company / finances. It's a stiff price to pay for a paycheque.
It's funny how they do not name the "member" of CNBC's halftime report.
I was very sceptical of Lucid from the start. It's not easy to have Tesla as competition. But they hired my friend who was one of the best engineer I knew and he seemed impressed by what they did. I have watched many of their presentations, even though I struggle with ignoring the too smooth accent, Peter seems to know what he is talking about and from the presentation they seem to be doing state of the art engineering and have very good motors etc.
Imo where they fall is that they have focused too much on getting something better than Tesla. They need something to make their car better than Tesla in order to justify their existance. But in doing that they have failed to do a whole experience that is better than Tesla. It's not enough to be better at one or ten things, you need to make a product that nails the most important things. Such as charging infrastructure, autopilot, cost, story, soul etc. They became a bit too heavy on engineering while not having a great story or soul. It feels like a steve jobs copycat of Tesla and the price tag is way too high for a product that is not even better than Model S. Having more horsepower doesn't matter if your acceleration is worse. Having longer range doesn't matter if the charging infrastructure makes longer distances less practical.
What Tesla did was hard, but they managed to do it mostly because their competition sucked. Doing what Tesla did with Tesla as competition is much much harder. Lucid has done a decent job, but it was a too hard problem for them. I would not invest in them, but I applaud the effort. Imo if you want to start a new company to compete with Tesla, you need to find a way to not compete with Tesla, at least for the first few years. You are not gonna make an iPhone competitor from scratch, no you start with something else and evolve it into an iPhone competitor.
Many have tried or are still trying...and many, if not all will fail.
Legacy auto: Lack the software/engineering expertise, cannibalize their ICE sales, no charging infrastructure, Have to retool production lines, no battery supply, Boring/Ugly designs, razor thin profit margins, lack of useable range, (insert 100 other reasons here)
Pure EV startups: Prototypes are easy...Mass Production is hard, making a compelling product at a competitive price point (close to impossible)
I think there is a small niche that Lucid has carved out, "high end EV that is not a Tesla".
There is room in the market for all, but I wonder if Lucid is making money on each car, how much cash they are burning, and how much debt they are accumulating,
The really hard thing Tesla did was "Production Hell" and the Model 3 ramp. What Lucid is doing now isn't very good preparation for tackling that kind of challenge.,
It is very interesting to crunch the numbers on how much capital Tesla raised, how much debt they had prior to the Model 3 ramp and compare that to their cash and debt position now.
If Lucid was going to attempt something like the Model 3 ramp, there is a lot more competition, including competition from Tesla. It may be harder to raise capital or take o n debt at good prices. The Lucid needs to attract the staff, source the parts, raw materials and machinery, at a time when many other car companies are attempting to do the same thing.
Could Lucid make their niche "high end EV that is not a Tesla" work?
IMO what they need is clarity of vision, and sticking to their core products and their core market. The ship has sailed on mass market EVs for now, Don't chase the wrong dream at the wrong time. Keep a tight focus and do one thing exceptionally well, stay at the "high end".
They will do what the Saudi's tell them to do.
FSDtester#1
"Circle Jerk Old Guard" per cyborgLIS aka "CJOG"
Just @Gigapress , @The Accountant , and @Curt Renz .... not to be a name dropper or anything...You don't have any affluent clients?
100% this. This is why Rivian still has a chance since they make a vehicle no one makes (R1S), one that few make but in not enough volume (R1T), and a guaranteed contract to make another vehicle that also would be in huge demand if they could make more of them (EDV). Btw, initial field reports of the EDV are really, really positive.
Rawlinson is a lousy business strategist, which is actually pretty common unfortunately. Elon has his faults, but being a bad strategist is definitely not one of them.
Yeah. Rivian were smart, they entered the markets Tesla were not in. Van and Trucks. Their window on the truck market is rapidly closing with Cybertruck out in the next year, but maybe that was enough time for them to get started. Van they can saturate Amazon's needs and no Tesla there for another few years it seems. Btw does Amazon still not want to support Tesla even without Jeff Who?
Elon has a habit of being lucky with his early strategies. Often he decides to invest time and resources into something that later turns out to be very important, often his strategies to get to market turns out to actually work and bring margins every step of the way to finance the higher profits in the future. This is hard to replicate and should be fully understood. Imo the competition has not done the lessons from this and thus their future lack of success is likely. If you fail to learn from your past mistakes you will not win in the long run... And it's not easy to fix this, specially in an old organization with high inertia. It takes someone with a big hammer, like we see Elon swinging at Twitter right now. Diess tried to do it, but his hammer was not big enough and he probably was not as brutal as Elon can be. And probably his task was a lot harder. I think if Elon didn't own Tesla and had purchased VW he might have had a tiny chance. Without being the owner of the company it will be very hard to start swinging that hammer without getting kicked out...
TLDR: Rip legacy, wp Rivian, everyone else take notes!
Weird. Something's up.
Most unfortunately, today someone attempted to violate TMC’s Terms of Service by using this thread to direct traffic toward his own blog.
A large part of the “unfortunately” is because extremely recently I had a very pleasant meet-up with him, at which time I most specifically asked whether such a blog was a part of his long term plans. “Probably eventually” is the gist of his response and, lamentably, I then let the discussion lapse, thus kicked the can down the road rather than alerting him to the specific fact that it would be a serious TOS violation.
So I hold myself to blame for pussyfooting around, but there it is. There is NO REASON to post further comments about this topic. I.e.: don’t.
A large part of the “unfortunately” is because extremely recently I had a very pleasant meet-up with him, at which time I most specifically asked whether such a blog was a part of his long term plans. “Probably eventually” is the gist of his response and, lamentably, I then let the discussion lapse, thus kicked the can down the road rather than alerting him to the specific fact that it would be a serious TOS violation.
So I hold myself to blame for pussyfooting around, but there it is. There is NO REASON to post further comments about this topic. I.e.: don’t.
In connection with discussions of South Korean factory, Elon mentioned spending 10b$ in South Korea in 2023 to various suppliers. Does that strike anyone else as unexplainably large?
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Tesla current drop -59.9% over 12.5 months (including -47% over last 10 weeks) with current market cap $578.50 billion for company growing sales 56% YoY and EPS 69% YoY with global brand name, extremely desirable products with huge demand , highly ethical and extremely hard working CEO who owns 14.1% of shares, virtually zero competition from practical standpoint, plus rapidly expanding production to satisfy this insane demand and potential for robotaxis, optimus, energy etc. there is a remote possibility that this selloff is bit overdone and maybe Tesla bears have just had their greatest moment of glory yesterday when stock price hit $166.19
so what happens next?
highly unlikely that 99.99% of investors/speculators will be able to beat Tesla CAGR over next several years which has ranged from low of approx 43% (69X over last 12 years) to high of approx 53% (166X over last 12 years or so). back in november 2021 these # were approx 60% CAGR over 11 yrs since 2010 stock price high for 172X return over 11 years to 73% CAGR over 11 yrs approx for 414X return
supposing Tesla has seen its glory days and it will never match its previous stellar performance and going forward it only gets "mere" 30% CAGR for next 11 to 12 years at which rate i am getting 17X to 23X my investment from today
very hard to beat that
granted it may not make some of us billionaires but at least top movie star or top athlete net worths over next 11 to 12 years are possible. for ordinary retail investors and that is relatively conservative scenario. and there are ways to even do better with a little market timing very cautiously and highly sparingly, only for the very brave and highly reckless.
so on this Happy Thanksgiving much cause to celebrate and very little to complain about
as always, never any financial advice, just personal opinion of a deluded Tesla investor who drank the kool aid not unlike some or many of you.
Disclaimer: i may be totally wrong and Tesla could return just 15 to 20% CAGR over next several years or even worse albeit that level of sophisticated analysis is way outside my realm of analytical capabilities. my day job is far removed from anything to do with finance. That feat could only be accomplished by CFA level highly paid wall street analysts.
so what happens next?
highly unlikely that 99.99% of investors/speculators will be able to beat Tesla CAGR over next several years which has ranged from low of approx 43% (69X over last 12 years) to high of approx 53% (166X over last 12 years or so). back in november 2021 these # were approx 60% CAGR over 11 yrs since 2010 stock price high for 172X return over 11 years to 73% CAGR over 11 yrs approx for 414X return
supposing Tesla has seen its glory days and it will never match its previous stellar performance and going forward it only gets "mere" 30% CAGR for next 11 to 12 years at which rate i am getting 17X to 23X my investment from today
very hard to beat that
granted it may not make some of us billionaires but at least top movie star or top athlete net worths over next 11 to 12 years are possible. for ordinary retail investors and that is relatively conservative scenario. and there are ways to even do better with a little market timing very cautiously and highly sparingly, only for the very brave and highly reckless.
so on this Happy Thanksgiving much cause to celebrate and very little to complain about
as always, never any financial advice, just personal opinion of a deluded Tesla investor who drank the kool aid not unlike some or many of you.
Disclaimer: i may be totally wrong and Tesla could return just 15 to 20% CAGR over next several years or even worse albeit that level of sophisticated analysis is way outside my realm of analytical capabilities. my day job is far removed from anything to do with finance. That feat could only be accomplished by CFA level highly paid wall street analysts.
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