Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cobbler]

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What's the logic behind those 2 statements?

I don't see an edit option anymore (maybe mod can move this)
To clarify:

November was a record for Shanghai and now suddenly they're stepping on the brakes for production the month after? Doesn't make sense.
Is this because of extra long holidays, covid related or the production cut is simply false?

 

[cliff harris]

I think its interesting that we have a (fairly likely confirmed now) shutdown or slowdown in shanghai, AND when directly quizzed on it by people he follows, Elon has not responded.
I think if the answer was fairly mundane, there is a chance he would respond, especially as he can tell its being spun as low demand, and he might want to get ahead of that...
So there is a chance that the real reason is something he doesnt want to announce yet. Could be changes to swap to front/rear casting for model 3? Could be the discussed model 3 revamp? Could be something different entirely.

I REALLY doubt its just low Chinese demand. Tesla have a mission that involves selling as many cars as they can. If that meant dropping prices drastically there, they would do it. My bet is even more line upgrades, or retooling for structural pack/casting?

 

[lascavarian]

If that meant dropping prices drastically there, they would do it. My bet is even more line upgrades, or retooling for structural pack/casting?

My guess and it is a guess would be if the production planning dip is real, it would be precautionary related to Covid causing some supplier issues. Doing some line upgrades would be smart during a possible supplier blip. YMMV

 

[hobbes]

Independent report of production cut in Shanghai if you believe Reuters´ sources...
But IMHO fits the picture with COVID affected workers reportedly replaced with workers from other shifts, that can´t work indefinitely.

https://twitter.com/garyblack00

 

[printf42]

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What's the logic behind those 2 statements?

Base model Y was priced just below the threshold to get incentives, even choosing colors would cross the bar and lose qualification. So orders for this month probably are all bare base models.

I would not be surprised if they shift some capacity to model 3 if more options makes it higher margins overall.

But, I still sense BS for these reports, manipulation at its finest!!!

 

[jamaatta]

Why wouldn't they produce as much as they can? Even if demand in China would soften, there's always many markets to export. I really don't believe in this "soft demand in China" -story. There's something else going on...

 

[The Accountant]

The numbers in Europe continue to shatter all records.
First 2 months of the Qtr vs the first 2 months of prior Qtrs for UK and Norway:

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla Daily: Tesla News & Analysis: Semi Battery, Charging, & Delivery Details + China Update (12.02.22)
Starting: 00:10:12
https://traffic.libsyn.com/secure/t...hina_Update_12.02.22.mp3?dest-id=561941#t=612

Might be demand issue That's the best guess for this rumor for now according to Rob Mauer

No might about it. I just got richer.

 

[hobbes]

The numbers in Europe continue to shatter all records.
First 2 months of the Qtr vs the first 2 months of prior Qtrs for UK and Norway:
View attachment 881621

Would be cool to do this for all of Europe from the data from our Europe registration stats wiki - still missing German numbers though, likely to come out today.

 

[The Accountant]

Would be cool to do this for all of Europe from the data from our Europe registration stats wiki - still missing German numbers though, likely to come out today.

Yes - I have that chart ready to go. Just waiting on Germany as you mentioned.

 

[aGreenGuy]

Closed loop on the factory because covid?

Line upgrades?

Could it have something to do with reduced staffing due to the workers and engineers that were sent from GigaShanghai assisting factory lines in US? I can’t recall if we got any start- and end-date for that manouver.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Perhaps one of our members in China might add some color to this report?

https://carnewschina.com/2022/11/22/tesla-slashes-price-of-model-3-model-y-in-china/

Of particular interest: 50% reduction in store traffic . . . .

If the demand in China is falling, why not just export more to, say, Australia, etc.?

 

[JSML]

I think its interesting that we have a (fairly likely confirmed now) shutdown or slowdown in shanghai, AND when directly quizzed on it by people he follows, Elon has not responded.
I think if the answer was fairly mundane, there is a chance he would respond, especially as he can tell its being spun as low demand, and he might want to get ahead of that...
So there is a chance that the real reason is something he doesnt want to announce yet. Could be changes to swap to front/rear casting for model 3? Could be the discussed model 3 revamp? Could be something different entirely.

I REALLY doubt its just low Chinese demand. Tesla have a mission that involves selling as many cars as they can. If that meant dropping prices drastically there, they would do it. My bet is even more line upgrades, or retooling for structural pack/casting?

Well, it is still 4:30 am in California.

 

[Singuy]

Perhaps one of our members in China might add some color to this report?

https://carnewschina.com/2022/11/22/tesla-slashes-price-of-model-3-model-y-in-china/

Of particular interest: 50% reduction in store traffic . . . .

If the demand in China is falling, why not just export more to, say, Australia, etc.?

Damn 50% lower store traffic when China is in covid lock down. I wonder why.

 

[juanmedina]

Any thoughts on this?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1599694778622672896

Mean while all the EV Chinese companies up big thanks to the change in the Covid policy .

 

[T@oo]

Beyond words. Tesla seems the only producer of something/anything that get's their production, their sales, their shipping, their foot traffic in stores and even their use of toilet paper followed by the minute. Normal fluctuation by monthly, weekly or even daily cycles get noticed, dissected, inspected, discussed ad nauseum, disassembled, turn inside out and put together again 24/7. It's tiresome tbh. My eyes are sore from rolling.

I get it. Skin in the game, options market, yadda yadda. But really, what's next?

 

[Atomsla]

Beyond words. Tesla seems the only producer of something/anything that get's their production, their sales, their shipping, their foot traffic in stores and even their use of toilet paper followed by the minute. Normal fluctuation by monthly, weekly or even daily cycles get noticed, dissected, inspected, discussed ad nauseum, disassembled, turn inside out and put together again 24/7. It's tiresome tbh. My eyes are sore from rolling.

I get it. Skin in the game, options market, yadda yadda. But really, what's next?

Next up: overanalysing everything Elon says and does. Oh wait..

 

[T@oo]

Any thoughts on this?

Yes.

 

[Xd85]

whatever the reason is, the discrepancy between P and D should be 0 now right? That’s what market wants no? Either way, good time for demand chairs?

 

[hobbes]

Yes - I have that chart ready to go. Just waiting on Germany as you mentioned.

10,819 for Germany in Nov . +59% Jan-Nov year over year. +93% compared to just Nov 2021.

Pressemitteilungen - Fahrzeugzulassungen im November 2022

Flensburg, 5. Dezember 2022. 260.512 Personenkraftwagen (Pkw) wurden im November 2022 neu zugelassen und damit +31,4 Prozent mehr als im Vergleichsmonat.

www.kba.de