Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wtlloyd]

Everyone has their best intentions in mind, but can we please just stop endless speculation over how it's possible for 80,000 pound semis to safely descend a mountain? It is obviously not an issue, as many thousands of diesel semis are doing it every day without any regen assistance whatsover!!!

It's not supposed to be the Pedantic Investors Roundtable, ya know.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Look no farther on how the media spins negatives as positives for legacy auto:

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

In case anyone hasn’t figured it out yet, hedge funds plans for TSLA for the rest of December are crystal clear. The stock was capped from a breakout repeatedly all week last week where the stock, if it had broken and stayed above 200, would have clearly broken out of the downtrend channel it’s been on for over a year now.

The last week of capping now followed by massive bear raid with coordinated false news puts us right back in the downtrend. 150 is still very much in play here if the CPI number comes in warmer than expected and/or the Feds refuse to budge. Tminus 20 trading days now until Q4 numbers.

And even then, unless P/D are an absolute blowout with deliveries in the 455-460 range +, I expect bear narrative to revert to margin collapse until we get earnings. Buckle up anyone with shorter term calls or are margin, gonna bumpy month

 

[wipster]

Heck at this firesale I had to buy some more!

 

[ZsoZso]

They want the s and will do anything to get them. Time is ticking and they know it….

“The Flames begin - Q1 2023”

I love this theme here, that it is always the Next quarter that is going to be fantastic and will burn the shorts, the current one (despite being a record P/D) is being received negatively by Mr. Market, but its OK, because "next Q the market will go crazy and the shortz get burned".

People, when are we going to learn ?!?
Seriously!
No matter how many times Tesla shatters the records in Production, Delivery, Earnings, Profits, the market always finds an excuse to react negatively.
The stock goes up at random times with no logical explanation, just because...
But every time there is a good reason (record quarters etc), it goes down, because that is how the game is played.
MM needs to skin the cat over and over again and they have many ways to do that.

 

[SmokyPeat]

By way of quick comparison and getting things into proper units

82,000 lbs = approx 37,000 kg which is fully laden total vehicle weight (cab + trailer + load)

Raising (say) 30 kg of neo magnets from (say) 0 deg C to (say) Curie temperature of (say) 300 C is 30 x 300 = 9,000 kg.C

In comparison with (say) a 1,000 kWh semi battery (inc unavailable portion) at (say) 6 kg/kWh = 6,000 kg battery (13,000 lbs approx of 27,000 lbs cab kerb weight)

Raising (say) 6,000 kg of battery from (say) O C to (say) ideal battery charge temp of (say) 30 C is 6000 x 30 = 180,000 kg.C

So indeed simply dumping excess heat into the battery gives 20x of heat reservoir compared with 'just' letting it accumulate in the neos. Of course it wouldn't just accumulate in the neos as the motors etc are of the order of a few hundred kg in toto, and indeed there is already a wet-loop cooling system in there to do just this. But the question remains, what do you do once it is at max temperature (and max SoC) and can't evacuate additional heat fast enough into the air ? This is the equivalent of a diesel semi that cannot engage any form of engine braking - the loss of a clutch for example whilst out of gear, so conceptually a well known failure state. So far the best answers appear to be the same for the Tesla Semi as for any conventional diesel semi, i.e. creep carefully at low speed on the friction brakes, or find a gravel run-off. The only advantage the Tesla Semi has is that it can drive around town (yes, some towns and cities are on the top of very big hills) burning the SoC off below 100% until such point is at can make the descent safely.

I imagine that the people who race semi-cabs will be all over this quite soon. Surely some of their races start at the top of hills ? We know that racing BEVs quite quickly exposes the limitations of the different thermal systems in the various cars/etc out there.

But how often is a truck driver going to charge his fully loaded Semi to 100% at Donner Pass? And Semi racing isn't a sizable motorsport oddly enough, and I've never heard of any that start with a mountainous descent. Maybe dynamic braking emerges as an emergency system for redundancy in extreme cases, but it may just as easily not.

 

[JSML]

"According to the sales data released by Tesla on the evening of December 5, Tesla delivered more than 100,000 vehicles in the Chinese market in November, a month-on-month increase of about 40% and a year-on-year increase of 89%."

I guess Tesla shot their load early and delivered the most cars in the Chinese Market in a month, so now it is time to cutback production...Even a 3 year old could see that rumor is false.

More than 100,000 units is wholesale and includes exports.

 

[Drax7]

What is disturbing, given how solid the tesla fundamentals are
, given record November production and sales,
and how undervalued the stock is, that a false rumor can have
such a great impact on the stock Price.

Short term traders totally dominate the stock price
and they seem to get away with fake news.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Just in case it wasn’t more obvious how fake this rumor was

https://twitter.com/x/status/1599784038130421760

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I am not quite understanding here:

1. Apple's iPhone manufacturer in China has protests (video evidence) and 'analysts' say it could affect production by 30% or more and the stock went down 2.5% that day

2. Tesla 'rumor' of Shanghai production cut after delivering a record amount of vehicles in China and it goes down 5%+?

Boy...if only we were on the other side with no ethics, we would all be billionaires by now.

 

[elasalle]

Macro env jittery :

Dow sheds nearly 500 points, stocks finish lower on worries of further Fed rate hikes

Stocks fell Monday on fears that the Federal Reserve may continue tightening until it steers the economy into a recession.

www.cnbc.com

With better than expected employment numbers, everyone is playing a guessing game as to what the Fed will do next ... 0.5 or continue with .75
All s on next CPI report

 

[elasalle]

Just in case it wasn’t more obvious how fake this rumor was

https://twitter.com/x/status/1599784038130421760

Media gets away with stock manipulations ...

.. wish there was a counter force (buybacks) that took adv of these situations ....

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Do you really think a month of production of a low volume product is any kind of indication how things are? Tesla indicated a 20K volume for 2023 and 50k for 2024 AFAIK. What difference do 5 or 10 Semis make in the first month of production?

Just curious on the progress. Seems to be a sore point with you. Sorry to ruin your day.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

He SHOUDN'T have mentioned an unsubstantiated rumor. That is certainly NOT why I listen to his podcast. Even if you believe that Reuters even HAD sources, this puts him in the same category as them.

What exactly would have been better if Rob hadn't 'warned' us that this, true or not, might be in play today when the market opened?

If you have a source that has a proven track record, yes, you should absolutely report on what that source says. Is it possible that that source in turn got played? Maybe, or maybe it had been planning this all along. But then nothing unsubstantiated should be reported here. Good or bad.

I assume you then also want Rob (and others) not to mention anything positive that is unsubstantiated? Rob had more disclaimers before mentioning this than pretty much any reporting regarding anything I've ever heard. He talked for minutes about how he didn't know if this was correct or not. Isn't it enough that some of you are pounding on anyone bringing anything not positive to tmc? You want to do that to the whole internet? Oh wait, that´s actually directly against Elons intention with his other endeavors. That the same group of people here are very supportive of.

 

[T@oo]

Just curious on the progress. Seems to be a sore point with you. Sorry to ruin your day.

Day was ruined before. Sorry for picking you to vent.

 

[MartinAustin]

CNBC did just cover this [production cut] on-air briefly, and Morgan Brennan included that Tesla itself said the rumor was not true.

Haven't seen anyone include "month-on-month increase of about 40% and a year-on-year increase of 89%" yet though

 

[joh01652]

Look no farther on how the media spins negatives as positives for legacy auto:

View attachment 881652

Hmm, yes. It almost seems like we're living in a highly scripted reality TV show where the characters and plots are designed to create passions and reactions to support whatever narrative is being weaved by those directing the show. Wouldn't it be something if we woke up one day to find we're actually living The Truman show or some other sort of Black Mirror-like dystopian techno-prison.

 

[Mike Smith]

CNBC reposted the link to their article. The only change they made was to add that Tesla is not responding to request for comment. No mention that Tesla denied the report. The majority of investors probably still think the report is true.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What is disturbing, given how solid the tesla fundamentals are
, given record November production and sales,
and how undervalued the stock is, that a false rumor can have
such a great impact on the stock Price.

Short term traders totally dominate the stock price
and they seem to get away with fake news.

That’s because hedge funds know that institutional investors likely wont make a move to buy in big time until a mixture of the elements are confirmed/present:

- reaffirmed production/demand - Answered beginning of Jan

- reaffirm margin stability - Answered on earnings

- inflation still cooling and Fed rate hike halt - next week

- further PE compression to what the majority of what Wall St “thinks” Tesla should be valued at….based on low expectations of Tesla’s future prospects.

The PE compression dynamic changes dramatically with Q4’s earnings. It will lower the TTM PE and the Forward PE considerably. Q3, while we understand the headwinds to earnings, really failed at bringing the PE metrics down as much as I had hoped

Likely going to need a combination of all of these elements for Tesla buying pressure to outweighs the shenanigans. Once that’s dynamic switches, you’re likely going to see a lot of hedge reverse their position to ride TSLA higher until it reaches a much higher valuation where they’ll reverse their position again to ride the stock back down some.

 

[thx1139]

Look no farther on how the media spins negatives as positives for legacy auto:

View attachment 881652

Have to say since I have saw nearly the exact text from multiple sources on Friday this is where PR department comes in. This is likely nearly word for word taken from a Ford PR statement sent to media outlets.