Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

Hi - here's a good article to read through. I found it informative.

Why do individuals spread misinformation?

Widespread low media literacy and dIfferent psychological pressures such as cognitive dissonance, selective exposure, and the “backfire…

casperge.medium.com

Good article, however Medium is another publication known to publish opinionated FUD. This crap needs to be loudly refuted in the same or better read format as the original. That's why the need the "sic em' " to be at bat.

 

[WolfHero]

So, news came out of Taiwan that since Tesla starting to deliver Model Y on Dec 5th, there is a backlog of over 10k reservations and estimated to deliver 3000-4000 and up to 5000 Model Ys this month and potentially will take the 1st place in new car sales for December.

Quoted from below news article, Taiwanese government's Motor Vechicle Driver Information Servies's data shows the first 5 days since Dec 5th Tesla has already delivered 574 Ys, and besides the first 2 shipments, there was a 3rd ship arrived on Dec 7th.

Source: 12 月新車銷售冠軍恐換人？Tesla Model Y 將衝擊 Toyota Corolla Cross 寶座 - 自由電子報汽車頻道

 

[wipster]

For all the Semi battery discussion (and I will put this link on the Tesla Semi thread as well), this is a superb tweet by @TeslaLarry (Larry Goldberg) refuting even more FUD.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1601576369728933888

 

[ZeApelido]

Have we bots writing posts in this forum (other than @ZeApelido and, of course, me)? But more seriously, if this is not requesting divulging a secret sauce, how do YOU know of what you just posted?

Asking for……humanity.

Please be respectful of societal norms - I identify as Troll not Bot.

 

[betstarship]

https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/features/superchargers-opening-to-non-teslas

"Paul Scott, a co-founder of Plug In America in 2005, tells U.S. News that Tesla’s announcement is timely. “Tesla opening its chargers to non-Teslas is a good and necessary thing. Tesla has demonstrated that it can install many more chargers at a lower cost, and maintain a much higher percentage of working chargers, than non-Tesla entities. To enable more EVs to be sold through competing EV manufacturers, it’s imperative that Tesla open its network to these non-Tesla EVs. Since Tesla will have to do this in order to participate in the $7.5 billion the feds are providing, this makes perfect sense.”"

 

[mongo]

What bugs me about this article is that it pretends that there is a single global CCS standard, and does not differentiate between the extremely unwieldy and inconvenient four times too large CCS1 of North America and the much more reasonably sized and manageable CCS2 in Europe.

CCS1 has to die.

CCS2 I could live with.

For this reason alone, Tesla has to massively scale up both charging spots and output of cars on the road to keep the argument going that NACS has twice as many cars as CCS on the road...

Are you comparing a DC fast charge CCS1 to the AC only IEC Type 2?
CCS1 (NA)

CCS2 (EU)

 

[Skryll]

Are you comparing a DC fast charge CCS1 to the AC only IEC Type 2?
CCS1 (NA)
View attachment 883655
CCS2 (EU)
View attachment 883656

Wow, I indeed was confused about AC only, both are hideous for ACDC/combo.

I deleted my nonsense statement, thank you.

So really CCS has got to die, lets flood the world with NACS cars and chargers to make sure

 

[T3SLA3]

Are you comparing a DC fast charge CCS1 to the AC only IEC Type 2?
CCS1 (NA)
View attachment 883655
CCS2 (EU)
View attachment 883656

That is not CCS2, I don’t know where you are getting your info. from.

CCS2 is three phase + DC.
Used in Europe, UK, Aus, NZ etc.

It may make sense for USA to standardise on the Tesla single phase + DC connector.

I think CCS2 is great for NZ at least.
Anywhere I drive I know CCS2 is the standard.

 

[Skryll]

That is not CCS2, I don’t know where you are getting your info. from.

CCS2 is three phase + DC.
Used in Europe, UK, Aus, NZ etc.

It may make sense for USA to standardise on the Tesla single phase + DC connector.

I think CCS2 is great for NZ at least.
Anywhere I drive I know CCS2 is the standard.

Thats right, @mongo was confusing me, my original post was right. I guess I should travel to Germany and drive a Tesla on the autobahn like I have been dreaming of for so long, then I would know what kind of plug the type2 menekes plug is, and that it is half the size of the CCS1 combo plug: menekes

 

[Chenkers]

Thats right, @mongo was confusing me, my original post was right. I guess I should travel to Germany and drive a Tesla on the autobahn like I have been dreaming of for so long, then I would know what kind of plug the type2 menekes plug is, and that it is half the size of the CCS1 combo plug: menekes

No, your original post was still incorrect. Also the link you have provided for the Menekes/Type 2 plug only provides AC delivery, (although on legacy S/X it was also modified to deliver DC, but mainly on Tesla Superchargers). The Type 2 CCS plug takes the top Menekes/Type 2 plug and adds two large DC pins underneath to create the CCS2 combo. The EU/AU/NZ etc CCS2 plug is similar to what @mongo posted but with a bit different in the upper pin placement. Being from Australia, this is the CCS2 port that's on my car and what I regularly use to charge with. Having also used the Tesla/NACS in the US, I agree that Tesla's solution is superior but doubt it will get used much outside North America.

This wiki article details the The EU/AU/NZ Type 2 CCS plug: Type 2 connector - Wikipedia

The photo below shows the EU/AU/NZ Type 2 CCS plug next to the Type 2/Memekes plug.

Edit: Relooking at the lower plug @mongo posted this does look like a E/AU/NZ style CCS2. What I thought were 4 pins along the top looks like 2 pins plus 2 screws, which also matches the photo I posted. Not sure where @T3SLA3 is coming from, perhaps they should check again?

 

[Dikkie Dik]

drive a Tesla on the autobahn like I have been dreaming of

Here’s something to tide you over

Dutch magazine took a Plaid out on the Autobahn.

 

[Singuy]

This is being promoted on Twitter.

 

[CHGolferJim]

So, news came out of Taiwan that since Tesla starting to deliver Model Y on Dec 5th, there is a backlog of over 10k reservations and estimated to deliver 3000-4000 and up to 5000 Model Ys this month and potentially will take the 1st place in new car sales for December.

Quoted from below news article, Taiwanese government's Motor Vechicle Driver Information Servies's data shows the first 5 days since Dec 5th Tesla has already delivered 574 Ys, and besides the first 2 shipments, there was a 3rd ship arrived on Dec 7th.

Source: 12 月新車銷售冠軍恐換人？Tesla Model Y 將衝擊 Toyota Corolla Cross 寶座 - 自由電子報汽車頻道

Amazing. Is there a major incentive for EVs a la Norway?

 

[scaesare]

Maybe they felt safer being extra conservative with the range figure. That's what I meant by buffer. If Elon says it can achieve 1.7 kWh/mile and better, I'd assume it did 1.7 kWh/mile or better on the 500 mile trip. We'll just have to wait for the official word from Tesla on the battery capacity. My guess is around 915 kWh usable.

Yup, assuming that 500 mile trip that used 93% was doing 1.7KWh/mi, that's 913.97KWh for a full pack. I'd say rounding to 915 works ...

 

[nativewolf]

With 1.7 kWh/mile it's probably more like 850-900 kWh for the pack.

Even so, why use analysis assuming Tesla would only make the 500-mile trucks? That's way off. In the 2017 Semi reveal, the range slide highlighted that the vast majority of routes are under 250 miles.

View attachment 883521

• The mission is better supported by selling more trucks because that strategy displaces diesel demand faster

• It appears that battery supply will be the fundamental limiting factor, and 300-mile range truck will have only about 500-550 kWh per truck.

• For the US market at least, selling a greater quantity of trucks with smaller batteries is heavily incentivized by the $40k commercial clean vehicle credits from the IRA.

• One of Tesla's other major goals with the truck is to reduce the human health impacts of diesel exhaust pollution, which is a function of how many EV trucks are on the road and how many people are being exposed to the pollution. This too tilts the comparison in favor of trucks for short haul local deliveries with lots of driving in densely populated areas.

• The competitive advantage of diesel vs. battery trucks is strongest for short-haul local deliveries because with start and stop cycles the diesel truck is wasting fuel and wearing on the brakes and transmission, whereas the electric truck is just sipping on the battery thanks to regen braking. The greater acceleration power of the electric also will help it make deliveries substantially faster than a diesel truck on these routes.

If the average battery size is 600 kWh per Semi then Tesla would only need 30 GWh to make 50k trucks, which is well within Giga Nevada's current output of about 40 GWh/year.

The economic advantages are greatest for trucks driving most miles. The objective is to remove, for fleet buyers, trucks doing long local runs and still returning to dispatch center every day. That is what pays for the truck. The subsidy is a one time interesting point; $70k a year in fuel savings is the gift that keeps on giving. The more miles driven the greater the impact. From a human health impact you will remove diesel particulate from urban air sheds.

You are making it too complicated and missing the single driver- remove miles driven.

Lastly even a local truck will be called on to do a 300 mile trip now and again. A truck that simply can’t do it is a liability. While most trucks drive less than 250 miles a day most trucks also drive more than 300 several times a month. For now the truck is perfectly positioned in terms of battery pack.

I applaud Tesla for picking this size battery pack. It makes the economic argument the best and removes the most diesel.

Lastly the trucks that have high wear are not local logistics trucks on short routes, those are usually lightly laden and those trucks have low wear. The heavy trucks are the one with wear and tear issues.

 

[nativewolf]

For all the Semi battery discussion (and I will put this link on the Tesla Semi thread as well), this is a superb tweet by @TeslaLarry (Larry Goldberg) refuting even more FUD.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1601576369728933888

Stupid premise- the economic impact is the driver here. Cool doesn’t matter.

 

[Singuy]

Stupid premise- the economic impact is the driver here. Cool doesn’t matter.

Eventually after the megachargers network are built up. Currently companies are buying it for the "cool" factor as a wrapped Tesla semi garnish attention and has advertisement value. Trust me all those companies who pre-ordered are not paying the original asking price nor are they calculating TCO right now.

 

[Speedr117]

Elon mentioned on a recent Spaces call that he was late due to an urgent board meeting matter.

Quick question: Do you think it's related to share buy backs or delivery issues, or something else (i.e. related to Tesla Brand destruction)?

 

[Singuy]

Elon mentioned on a recent Spaces call that he was late due to an urgent board meeting matter.

Quick question: Do you think it's related to share buy backs or delivery issues, or something else (i.e. related to Tesla Brand destruction)?

Just by looking at Twitter, I don't think it's a Tesla brand destruction meeting. Share buy back meeting is not urgent, and delivery issues is a CEO problem, not a board problem. Maybe someone is leaving.

 

[nativewolf]

Eventually after the megachargers network are built up. Currently companies are buying it for the "cool" factor as a wrapped Tesla semi garnish attention and has advertisement value. Trust me all those companies who pre-ordered are not paying the original asking price nor are they calculating TCO right now.

I know the very first buyer, first with deposits anyway. Moving company. Nearly every large company is going to test them. I really don’t think it has much to do with cool. It’s about $