Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[unk45]

Last part of the last sentence is honestly the sincerest thing I've heard an ICE company say...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1601309809881796608

Most people don't seem to register that the Cherokee will now be built in the Stellantis plant in Toluca, Mexico. Belvidere has been repeatedly retrofitted to produce a wide array of Chrysler models, then the Cherokee. I'm told that for several years they've been debating how to close the plant. It has been shrinking for several years and ended out with a single shift as the Cherokee had dwindling sales. They had no appetite, apparently, to retrofit the plant for EV, not least because the 1960's era plant isn't well designed for modification.

the-jeep-cherokees-future-doesnt-look-all-that-great-1849876815

It is a good time to reflect that Tesla Fremont opened as a GM plant in 1962. Until Tesla bought it for a pittance it had been pretty much a garden variety Detroit plant. Tesla, faced with a dilemma not unlike that of Belvidere, chose to totally renovate everything that had been there, including buying a large press and moving it to Fremont themselves. That press saga introduced the world to 'Elon time' and to the beginning of continuous manufacturing innovation.

As we see more plant closings by ICE-age logic we also have the opportunity to see a 9000 ton press being installed in Austin, plus unceasing innovation in all the other plants. This is happening while Elon is distracted proving that the Tesla innovation bench is very deep and very determined.

I just could not resist the comparison between Chrysler Stellantis Belvidere and GM, NUMMI, Toyota Fremont.

 

[unk45]

JODL? A new FLA?

FIFM thanks to you

 

[PeterJA]

And even more FUD from another FUD rag this morning. First thing that popped on Google this morning. And all based on the opinions of a couple independents from Wyoming who aren't even the target customers right now.

Truck drivers are all saying the same thing after Tesla releases electric Semi

TESLA has delivered its first Semi vehicles to Pepsi last Thursday at a company event after spending five long years developing the truck. But enthusiasm for new Elon Musk’s commercial electric veh…

www.the-sun.com

Long-haul truckers have more to worry about than the terrible inconvenience of charging for 30 minutes while they get coffeed up. FSD is coming for them first.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Long-haul truckers have more to worry about than the terrible inconvenience of charging for 30 minutes while they get coffeed up.

FSD is coming for them first.

Did pilots become obsolete when autopilot and autoland systems came to be in airplanes?

Consider that airspace is far more controlled than roads and it’s easy to see you will need a human driver who’s capable of taking over for those corner cases that FSD will inevitably fail at.

 

[Discoducky]

Competition much?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1601968269711253505

 

[elasalle]

@Krugerrand's next cat... for those elongated conversations ,;-)
View attachment 883735

Cyber cat

 

[wipster]

Cyber cat

Powered by AI

 

[nativewolf]

Long-haul truckers have more to worry about than the terrible inconvenience of charging for 30 minutes while they get coffeed up. FSD is coming for them first.

No fsd will come for commercial truckers last. Just way too many edge cases, tires blowing on trucks and trailers, all sorts of special restrictions that change constantly. Then long haul has its own set of special issues- cargo shifts, unloading cargo. Not saying it won’t happen but fsd for a truck is going to require a whole set of iterative testing just like what they are doing today and that has not been fast. In trucking you are looking a long haul market of a couple of hundred thousand licenses. Huge work effort for 200k seats.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Powered by AI

Purrrrfect.

 

[PeterJA]

Did pilots become obsolete when autopilot and autoland systems came to be in airplanes?

Consider that airspace is far more controlled than roads and it’s easy to see you will need a human driver who’s capable of taking over for those corner cases that FSD will inevitably fail at.

So you think robotaxis are impossible?

Tesla's FSD is already more sophisticated than current airplane computers and software. Dojo will eat corner cases for breakfast. What was "inevitable" in the past is not a good guide to the future after the Transportation Singularity.

 

[ElectricIAC]

So you think robotaxis are impossible?

Tesla's FSD is already more sophisticated than current airplane computers and software. Dojo will eat corner cases for breakfast. What was "inevitable" in the past is not a good guide to the future after the Transportation Singularity.

I think it’s possible in a limited scope, specifically once you have interlinked comms between cars on the road. The stakes are also much higher with a large vehicle.

 

[vikings123]

Just by looking at Twitter, I don't think it's a Tesla brand destruction meeting. Share buy back meeting is not urgent, and delivery issues is a CEO problem, not a board problem. Maybe someone is leaving.

Or perhaps someone coming back? Elon recently started following Larry Ellison on Twitter. I have no idea why because Larry has a grand total of 1 tweet since he joined(May 2012).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1601403844935782401

 

[cliff harris]

Did pilots become obsolete when autopilot and autoland systems came to be in airplanes?
Consider that airspace is far more controlled than roads and it’s easy to see you will need a human driver who’s capable of taking over for those corner cases that FSD will inevitably fail at.

For now, sure. But authorities are already talking about removing copilots.
A plane filled with kersonese flying >200mph and crashing into a city is an absolute catastrophe of epic proportions. A semi truck doing the same thing is...bad...but nowhere near the same impact. Probably an order of magnitude less dangerous.

I think we will see totally driverless trucks or more likely, trucks with the driver sleeping/reading/watching TV until the final turn into the destination*... way before we see planes without pilots.

*or perhaps, totally empty, but being monitored by a remote driver controlling 10+ trucks.

In many ways the semi is the #1 future project for FSD. Carefully defined routes, very predictable, not as much city driving as a taxi driver, and the high product cost means adding on an FSD option is a trivial cost due to the amount of time the semi is actually being used. (by any metric, as a semi retired dude who doesn't commute, my purchase of FSD is hilariously gratuitous).

I would not be at all surprised to find in 2-3 years time that the first totally driverless trips that are approved that run with Tesla vehicles are selected semi routes. Maybe consumer robotaxi will follow a few years later?

 

[Curt Renz]

Current Tesla situation described for 10 minutes by Tesla Economist Lee.

Farzad Mesbahi - today:

 

[cliff harris]

fsd for a truck is going to require a whole set of iterative testing just like what they are doing today and that has not been fast.

But surely easier for the AI to learn if you have recorded video of 500 entirely identical trips from point A to point B. Much easier to learn whats normal, and expected, and ok, and whats weird, when you have such a defined baseline?
I'm sure once there are 1,000 semis in the wild, Tesla will have an interesting dataset.

 

[thesmokingman]

That is one reason why serious HODL people keep studying everything they can about each holding, not to trade, but to sell when disaster is imminent. Over the years I've sold several before the keenly developed disdain for the obvious set in to the overall market.
Examples: Xerox, Polaroid, Eastman Kodak. All three had huge competitive advantage in technology, all three tried to protect their turf rather than continue innovating.
Today we have Tesla, BioNTech and some others which have had great success and continue innovation as quickly as they can. Those two both have seen large share price drops because the 'analysts' think the 'big guys' will come and eat them up.

The moral is, if we see Tesla stop or slow innovation it is time to sell. Until and unless that happens HODL works well because the markets have no awareness or concern about sustainable advantages.

That is why they all missed the coming disaster of Kodak, Polaroid and Xerox. After all they were invincible.

Or know when to cut your losses and pay attention to which way the wind is blowing.

 

[Max Plaid]

Stupid premise- the economic impact is the driver here. Cool doesn’t matter.

Definitely to discuss @wipster's note that he sent to Martin and Elon last week

 

[[email protected]]

For now, sure. But authorities are already talking about removing copilots.
A plane filled with kersonese flying >200mph and crashing into a city is an absolute catastrophe of epic proportions. A semi truck doing the same thing is...bad...but nowhere near the same impact. Probably an order of magnitude less dangerous.

I think we will see totally driverless trucks or more likely, trucks with the driver sleeping/reading/watching TV until the final turn into the destination*... way before we see planes without pilots.

*or perhaps, totally empty, but being monitored by a remote driver controlling 10+ trucks.

In many ways the semi is the #1 future project for FSD. Carefully defined routes, very predictable, not as much city driving as a taxi driver, and the high product cost means adding on an FSD option is a trivial cost due to the amount of time the semi is actually being used. (by any metric, as a semi retired dude who doesn't commute, my purchase of FSD is hilariously gratuitous).

I would not be at all surprised to find in 2-3 years time that the first totally driverless trips that are approved that run with Tesla vehicles are selected semi routes. Maybe consumer robotaxi will follow a few years later?

Piper M series certified Autoland is a giant step: M600/SLS Aircraft | HALO Safety System & Autoland | Piper

 

[wipster]

But surely easier for the AI to learn if you have recorded video of 500 entirely identical trips from point A to point B. Much easier to learn whats normal, and expected, and ok, and whats weird, when you have such a defined baseline?
I'm sure once there are 1,000 semis in the wild, Tesla will have an interesting dataset.

Good point!

 

[wipster]

Piper M series certified Autoland is a giant step: M600/SLS Aircraft | HALO Safety System & Autoland | Piper

Wow! Payne Stewart could have definitely used a system like that. Pretty impressive!