Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

Welp I sold a decent portion of my shares and am now doing the same process I did in the spring through fall of 2021. Bought Jan 25 220 Calls with 60% of the proceeds. Will keep adding to that collection of LEAPS if the stock drops lower and as I get FCF monthly. Luckily I'm in situation where I can add to the LEAPS collection by the tune of 8-10k monthly.

Not at all interested in DCA shares.....I'm DCA'ing LEAPS at this point. To be frank......either the stock is past it's ATH by Jan 2025 or the Tesla the company has self-imploded and thus the rest of my shares won't be worth much of anything anyways.

Just to let you know, my model doesn't put us passing the ATH of $415 until sometime in 2026.....

 

[Todd Burch]

Someone's buying.

 

[elasalle]

But it’s not true. They will in fact attack healthy lions, and certainly when they’re hungry enough - that last going right to the context of your post.

If *they* are hungry enough, no investor/investment/company is safe.

I’m no cat family expert but I have seen a few of these in the Discovery channel

If they are hungry and attack a healthy male lion- the lion breaks their bones
Cheers!!

 

[torkorp]

You must have some incredibly thin skin to be embarrassed by Elon Musk and sell at these prices. In my opinion of course. Nice second post by the way.

Thanks. And you're probably right about my skin. It’s a cultural thing I guess. Following EM and TSLA is just not that fun anymore.

 

[EVMeister]

Thanks. And you're probably right about my skin. It’s a cultural thing I guess. Following EM and TSLA is just not that fun anymore.

But is following Tesla fun for you?

 

[bingoz]

Just to let you know, my model doesn't put us passing the ATH of $415 until sometime in 2026.....

May I ask what your model says when the SP back to $300?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Right there with you on the LEAPS, picked up a $220 '25 about 30min ago as well.

I expect that I'll be buy able to buy more of the same LEAPS for cheaper over the next two weeks.

But the LEAPS strategy is also a hedge for me to a certain extent. I have significant FCF on a monthly basis and also some cash that will be coming in a periods throughout 2023 in addition to the company I work going IPO at some point in the next 2 years (was supposed to happen this year and well the market made sure it didn't).

If the stock shoots back up to its ATH over the next 2 years, well that's great for me. If it doesn't, that means the stock is insanely undervalued and/or Tesla the company is a complete trainwreck. But if it still significantly undervalued, by late 2024, I'll have a ton of liquidity to put back into the stock.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Just to let you know, my model doesn't put us passing the ATH of $415 until sometime in 2026.....

You have the more bearish earnings estimates I know of any Tesla investor lol.

The stock not at $450 by Jan 2025 means something has gone terribly wrong with Tesla as a company. Even if Tesla just does 25% earnings growth annually (an incredibly bearish estimate), you're talking about Tesla in the low to single digits PE.

 

[Krugerrand]

I’m no cat family expert but I have seen a few of these in the Discovery channel

If they are hungry and attack a healthy male lion- the lion breaks their bones
Cheers!!

If the hyena pack isn’t big enough against a male lion, yes, you are correct. But a sufficiently large enough pack can do it OR a smaller pack can take out a healthy lioness OR a few can take out a healthy cub.

We can move on now and you don’t have to admit you’re analogy was a poor one, especially if you pick a new one.

 

[UncaNed]

You have the more bearish earnings estimates I know of any Tesla investor lol.

The stock not at $450 by Jan 2025 means something has gone terribly wrong with Tesla as a company the world economy. Even if Tesla just does 25% earnings growth annually (an incredibly bearish estimate), you're talking about Tesla in the low to single digits PE.

FTFY

 

[ElectricIAC]

If the hyena pack isn’t big enough against a male lion, yes, you are correct. But a sufficiently large enough pack can do it OR a smaller pack can take out a healthy lioness OR a few can take out a healthy cub.

We can move on now and you don’t have to admit you’re analogy was a poor one, especially if you pick a new one.

Fire Ants are tiny but it’s no fun getting attacked by them either.

 

[thesmokingman]

Thanks. And you're probably right about my skin. It’s a cultural thing I guess. Following EM and TSLA is just not that fun anymore.

Definition of a fair weather fan. Time to get off that bandwagon huh?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

FTFY

Hence why I picked as far out LEAPS as possible at a relatively safe strike price. If the stock keeps going down, will DCA to lower strike prices for the same price of the LEAP. I'm essentially saying 2023 could be a wasted year in terms of the world economy.

My real hope is that the company I work for does it's IPO before 2025 and I plan to execute these LEAPS into actual shares.

 

[juanmedina]

Last one:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603115172293316608

 

[JRP3]

Elon Musk is Tesla's brand and 'needs to pull it together,' says Loup's Gene Munster

 

[ElectricIAC]

Last one:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603115172293316608

Maybe he’s playing with margin?

 

[FSDtester#1]

Last one:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603115172293316608

Didn't Uncle Leo say he was declaring "Peace" earlier today ?

 

[Mengy]

May I ask what your model says when the SP back to $300?

Not passing $300 again until 2025 with a PE of 25.

You have the more bearish earnings estimates I know of any Tesla investor lol.

The stock not at $450 by Jan 2025 means something has gone terribly wrong with Tesla as a company. Even if Tesla just does 25% earnings growth annually (an incredibly bearish estimate), you're talking about Tesla in the low to single digits PE.

I admit my model is very conservative, but I model our PE continuing to compress from here on out. My theory is Wall Street doesn't let TSLA back up off the floor again and keeps the PE low, so our SP stays down until fundamentals force it to break out simply due to financial math.

Price of $417 in 2026 with a PE of 23. EPS of $18.05, revenues of $481B, net income of $70.9B.

Now, I do think the PE will have periods of breaking out during rallys, so it wouldn't stay compressed all the time. BUT, my model is tuned with the expectation the MM's keep working TSLA back down at every chance they get to keep the PE compressed and on a downward trend over time.

I do hope reality is FAR more positive for TSLA investors. I just model the conservative case to keep my expectations low.

Good luck Starfox!

 

[JayNT]

Swore never to bet against Elon back in 2014. The only thing that could discourage me is if he was romantically involved with a white pigeon.

 

[JRP3]

The only thing that could discourage me is if he was romantically involved with a white pigeon.

I mean other than the color...