Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I have a good track record on timing the market, so that statement about selling at the top is relevant to bolster my credibility.
I am telling people to brace themselves, because I don’t think this is the bottom. The markets WILL humble you.

@HighIQPerson reminds me of that troll that kept coming back with "strong" in his user name. I'm guessing he's probably a dumb weakling with a penchant for ironic user names.

 

[Singuy]

What a guy. Doesn’t sit right with me at all.

Doesn't this kind of stuff revert back to the mean(aka fundamentals) anyway? Stock selling is like the LEAST material aspect of what a company is worth even though it's causing the biggest movement in the worth of the company. So it's the definition of a buying opportunity.

But I agree it does punish the greedy, people going on margin loans.

 

[Tachyon]

I’ve been lurking this thread for a long time and this is my first post.

I don’t like rubbing it in, but I sold TSLA when chicken genius Singapore said to sell at 1200. I have not bought back in.
I think at this point, the macro and higher interest rates will dictate TSLA’s movement and no amount of rosy earnings predictions is going to change market sentiment at this time.

That said, I hope you all are mentally strong enough to not harm yourselves for your huge losses. I know someone took his own life recently because of his TSLA losses. I firmly believe this downtrend is temporary and we’ll be back to ATH after Powell confirms a pivot. Until then, don’t be surprised at further losses.

Is that you ?GoJo.
Many of us here have held Tesla through much tougher times, this too shall pass.
And we will come through this much stronger .
We do complain and vent a lot though, it’s purgatory.
Thanks for your concern though

 

[mach-edriver]

As others have pointed out, Wall Street trading firms KNOW when Elon is selling. So it makes it easy for them to take advantage by selling, selling short, loading up on puts, etc. Drop in stock price gets exacerbated. Looking back, the price action is pretty obvious.

That's why the most confounding thing to me is not that he sold, but why he doesn't sell through his investment bank(s). Smh.

ANY brokerage firm that wants to retain high net worth individual investors or hedge funds as clients knows how to handle trades discretely. Elon Musk has enough professionals in his employ to see if his own brokers are frontrunning his sales.

 

[Artful Dodger]

How I see Gen3 playing out is > 12 Million cars per year. $25,000 ASP, 30% margins.
Compared to a $50,000 Model Y on 30% margins , Tesla needs to sell 2 Gen3 cars to make the same revenue.
IMO this means that the global Gen3 ramp has to proceed at 2X the rate of the Berlin and Austin Model Y ramps.

Yes, this is precisely what Elon and Zach said during the '22 Q3 Conf. Call. The next gen car will take half the effort to build, and be built in twice the volume:

Martin Viecha​

​

Great. Thank you very much. And let's go to the last investor question, which is the progression from Tesla's first platform with SMX to the second platform with 3 and Y led to a 50% reduction in cost of goods sold. When do you see Tesla's third platform being released? And what level of cost of goods sold reduction could you achieve?​

​

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect​

​

Well, we don't want to talk exact dates, but this is a -- I mean, the primary focus of our new vehicle development team, obviously. But at this point, we've done the engineering for Cybertrucks and for Semi. So, it's obviously against what we're working on, which is the next-generation vehicle, which will be probably about half the cost of 3 and Y platform. It will be smaller, to be clear.​

​

But it will, I think, certainly become -- certainly exceed the production of all our other vehicles combined. I mean, obviously, we're going to take everything we learned from S, X, 3, Y, Cybertruck and Semi into that platform. But we -- as you've said to us many times, we're on a 2-for-1 target. So we're trying to get to that 50% number again.​

​

It's like, we're going to take two. If that's exactly what, how are we making two cars for the amount of effort that we currently take to make one Model 3.​

​

Zachary Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer​

​

Yeah. Effort costs, efficiency.​

​

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect​

​

Needs to be considered.​

​

Zachary Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer​

​

Yeah. All those things. Half the loss, half the cost, half the factory floor space.​

​

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect​

​

We're twice the output. And we do believe this can be done. By the way, I should mention that when I said that probably now that I see a path in extremely very difficult path, incredible execution required, a massive amount of hard work, and some luck to get to where Tesla with as much as Apple and Saudi Aramco combined, I wasn't including Optimus.​

BTW, I've been predicting those types of numbers for about 3 years. That is, 2.5M units per year of Models 3/Y, 5M units per year of the compact $25K car/CUV, and 10M Robotaxis per year (30% of which are retained by Tesla to build their own fleet).

Cheers!

 

[30seconds]

So what if he does need to sell a billion every year to fund Twitter? That's exactly what Jeff Bezos is doing for Blue Origin, yet I haven't heard any complaints from AMZN investors.

I believe Jeff told everyone he was going to do that. Problem here is no one has any idea of how much Elon is selling.

Large public company CEOs sell stock all the time. They put a plan in place, carefully message that they will be selling some amount over the next year (or two) and then have spaced out regular / semi-regular sales.

 

[tslagreen]

What a guy. Doesn’t sit right with me at all.

Trust is becoming an issue with Elon. I don't need lawyer speak from him like future "planned" sales. No wonder he is pissed at Powell for bumping the rates and telling him he should cut rates - he doesn't want to see the interest payments from a line of credit blow up every month. Apparently, it got to the point where he decided selling more tsla shares was the better option.

 

[verystandard]

I’ve been lurking this thread for a long time and this is my first post.

I don’t like rubbing it in, but I sold TSLA when chicken genius Singapore said to sell at 1200. I have not bought back in.
I think at this point, the macro and higher interest rates will dictate TSLA’s movement and no amount of rosy earnings predictions is going to change market sentiment at this time.

That said, I hope you all are mentally strong enough to not harm yourselves for your huge losses. I know someone took his own life recently because of his TSLA losses. I firmly believe this downtrend is temporary and we’ll be back to ATH after Powell confirms a pivot. Until then, don’t be surprised at further losses.

I'm low IQ, I've bought some more shares today.

Also I've seen enough high IQ person in twitter. I don't need to see more, therefore I'm going to blocked you.

MOD: Sorry about that but I have to do this one openly because he is just rubbing me on the wrong way badly, much more than Boy Dislike

 

[Thekiwi]

I think the big unanswered question here is:- "Can Tesla continue to grow revenues at 50% per year compound?"

Odiously if the answer here is "Yes" for the next 5 years, then there is no real reason to worry.

IMO the 2 biggest 100% certain factors are:-

• Gen 3 cars - Robotaxi and others.
• Energy storage batteries.

The 3 biggest uncertain factors are:-

• FSD
• Optimus

How I see Gen3 playing out is > 12 Million cars per year. $25,000 ASP, 30% margins.
Compared to a $50,000 Model Y on 30% margins , Tesla needs to sell 2 Gen3 cars to make the same revenue.
IMO this means that the global Gen3 ramp has to proceed at 2X the rate of the Berlin and Austin Model Y ramps.
The best way to accelerate the ramp is have 4 factories ramping, not 2.

The the next relevant question is "recession proof", I would argue that anything that saves money is more recession proof.
IMO a $25,000 EV probably pays for itself over 10 years from fuel and maintenance savings, this is a big difference from the customers point of view the first time an EV has a 10 year ROI. Any software sold on these Gen3 cars is obviously higher margin compared to the base price of the car.

Vehicles with commercial uses can be more "recession proof" if they save a business money, or make a business money, that category includes:-

• Semi
• Cybertruck (some uses)
• Van - if this can be done in time,
• Taxis
• Robotaxis

Energy storage batteries can also save money and make money.

In terms of coping with a recession, the best chance is having Gen3 vehicles shipping, and FSD ready for regulatory approval,

In terms of growing 50% compound on average, Gen3 vehicles, FSD, and energy storage batteries, are the likely drivers.

if there is a recession, I think that means more of the competition goes bankrupt, goes slow, or generally loses their way.
So post recession there is a good chance of accelerated market share growth, which probably catches up some lost ground.

All things considered Gen3 is vital, and the timing is about right,

In terms of moving the market, Gen3 might be a "light bulb moment" for many doubters.

Perhaps they are waiting for Cybertruck ramp before finalizing the gen3 design. If the stainless steel design works out well enough for CT mass production, that may be the preferred option for the Gen3 platform given the potential savings from eliminating the paint shop In gen3 factories for the very cheapest variants.

 

[Gigapress]

Probably because it's not 1 billion, it's more along the lines of 15 billion. 1 billion is so far off the market this comment isn't worth the energy that was used to type it.

How did you get 15 billion?

Twitter’s entire annual expenses were only $5B last year. That’s an upper bound moving forward for their maximum potential annual losses because expenses should go way down with far fewer employees and they won’t have zero revenue.

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[Skryll]

It also questions (again) his “first in, Last out”-comment from a while ago. Hate to see it.

Don't worry, he will keep one share

 

[Thekiwi]

Although i commented the other day that Elons “debt is bad” tweet was a sign he possibly was selling to pay off twitter debt, I think he also may have sold to pump some money into spaceX. He cares much more about maintaining control of SpaceX so its recent funding round may have required him to top up his holdings a little to prevent dilution.

 

[spacerfc]

Probably because it's not 1 billion, it's more along the lines of 15 billion. 1 billion is so far off the market this comment isn't worth the energy that was used to type it.

The original comment is about future sales to fund Twitter's ongoing operations, not the past sales used to buy the company.

 

[Tachyon]

Henceforth , whenever Elon says positive things about Tesla , I am gonna go lock myself in a padded room

 

[Thekiwi]

Don't worry, he will keep one share

Even if he sold everything - he still will have many billions in TSLA holdings via his long term option grants.

 

[Skryll]

Because Elon's priorities no longer align with Tesla's vision.

He has clearly said so himself.

Citation needed

 

[TrendTrader007]

I have a good track record on timing the market, so that statement about selling at the top is relevant to bolster my credibility.
I am telling people to brace themselves, because I don’t think this is the bottom. The markets WILL humble you.

Blocked for being an insensitive troll

 

[spacerfc]

Although i commented the other day that Elons “debt is bad” tweet was a sign he possibly was selling to pay off twitter debt, I think he also may have sold to pump some money into spaceX. He cares much more about maintaining control of SpaceX so its recent funding round may have required him to top up his holdings a little to prevent dilution.

SpaceX stocks are dual-class, Elon's shares have super voting rights which gives him ~70% of the votes with ~40% of the shares, so I doubt he cares much about dilution. But it's not impossible that SpaceX may have some trouble raise the amount they needed under the current macro environment and Elon may choose to sell TSLA to avoid a slowdown of SpaceX's progress.

 

[phantasms]

Even if he sold everything - he still will have many billions in TSLA holdings via his long term option grants.

Please don’t give him any ideas!

 

[Discoducky]

@HighIQPerson reminds me of that troll that kept coming back with "strong" in his user name. I'm guessing he's probably a dumb weakling with a penchant for ironic user names.

That user joined the forum less than an hour ago... FYI