Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Wow, max pain still at 170, it's Friday, and we're at...

wait for it...

150.69

 

[SOULPEDL]

I wonder how much float will need to be created from thin air in order to get this below 150?
Strange that the volume isn't acting like there's a battle. Are the shorts out of ammo yet?

 

[tslagreen]

MM's/Shorts seem very persistent and intent on taking out all the stop losses at $150. Lots of repeated attempts so far in between capping it below $152 to prevent a breakout. If they do take it out, maybe we can finally get enough buyers interested to rip it back up towards $160.

Agreed. Never thought I would here the words "rip it back up" and $160 in the same sentence, but here we are and I would take it!

 

[Dikkie Dik]

This is surprising in light of the posts here I have seen that there is no available inventory ?

I just checked the Netherlands: zero M3 and three MY in inventory, no discount on those.

A few days ago I counted sixteen M3 and a bunch of MY. All gone now.

 

[verystandard]

Good god are we really gonna achieving 10% again?

 

[ZeApelido]

Is Elon selling again?

 

[Curt Renz]

BREAKING GOOD NEWS **** - today is last day of quarter Elon can sell (per a tweet from Gary)

Just 5 more hours ....

+SP will get a good 2 weeks rest till EOQ

I find it interesting that Elon has not yet tweeted he is done with this week's selling.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603779663716765696

 

[Chenkers]

I'm seeing $150.04 as the low so far.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Large number of buy orders staked out at 150.

 

[JRP3]

Just used my remaining fingers to push the buy button.

 

[tslagreen]

Is Elon selling again?

Don't trigger us! I hate that we have to keep asking the question though.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon used to work at least 50 hours at Tesla (and 50 at SpaceX, on average), now we don't even know if his activity reaches 10 hours per week, which probably are mostly spent in remote meetings from SF Twitter office.

That's not true. Elon told us in November that he is still working 40 hrs a week at Tesla and at SpaceX. He's just added a 3rd shift to do his passion project, which he has also said will be just until he rights the ship, then he'll hand over day-to-day management to a new birdy CEO.

Give him a break. Elon hasn't even taken vacaction time in over 15 years. If he were in a regular job, his employer (you) would would owe him over 50 weeks of vacation time. He's using some of that now to do what he is passionate about. Oh, that's what he's been doing at Tesla since 2008.

 

[lazybot]

I am not sure if this has been posted here. Could this be the reason for the selling pressure?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603416986876186625

 

[Creekstalker]

It has cost me so many, many dollars as well with having to buy/waste puts to keep the margin monster at bay.

Yes. Definitely Elon's fault.

 

[SOULPEDL]

This is surprising in light of the posts here I have seen that there is no available inventory ?

I am braced for Q4 numbers, please prove it wrong !

I just got another offer today now adding in that 10K mi for a Fremont Model Y with FSD. It could be the FSD that is singling me out - great margins with FSD BTW! I would believe Q4 US got softer than expected. TSLA stock itself may have indirectly reduced the number of vehicles delivered this quarter, and possibly IRA related as people take a back seat on any buying. Over-supply or under-demand, who knows but it's likely contained to Q4 otherwise why expand into Mexico, right?

 

[tslalala]

From what you have described I don't see how this clearly differentiates between the market trend as a whole vs. any effect caused by Elon's private affairs and comments. It seems like confirmation bias could hold a part in the interpretation you offer.

Wouldn't TSLA being more prone to volatility than the others be reason enough for the difference in deviation of the compared 200 DMAs, and the differences in retracement? How does Beta figure into these comparisons?

Can things like "His selling produced sharp reversal" be proven as having a cause/effect relationship with Elon's actions in a more significant way than a blip during a trading day's activities? (maybe across several days or weeks?)
Doesn't a wide variety of news (war, economic, labor, political, etc.) affect any stock throughout any trading day?
If so, wouldn't the significant effect being attributed to Elon look different from those normal catalysts over the long term?
This would be the sort of thing that would isolate something Elon did from influences shared with other stocks.

Saying "helped break" indicates how it may have broken that way regardless of anything Elon did. Is there demonstrable proof that Elon's actions had a measurable effect, or, does this have an element of assumption? (confirmation bias)

Still, I would expect if Elon actually had a significant effect it would show as a deviation that was markedly different from the compared trend lines of other stocks moving similarly due to generally shared market forces. (inflation, indicator announcements, interest rate changes, and such)

Shouldn't there be an obvious deviation which does not correlate with the general market down trend which eliminates confirmation bias as a consideration? Once discovered, could this be correlated against things Elon said or did in a way that anyone could look at and agree upon?

Can you offer a means to demonstrate that there was an outside force (Elon) acting on TSLA that is obvious and different than the forces acting on other stocks?

Despite the significant differences you point out between Tesla, Amazon, NVDA, MSFT, etc. as companies (not as stocks) their SPs do follow ups and downs together with the rest of the market. Wouldn't an Elon/TSLA event break from those shared patterns in a clearly discernible way?

Could you play Devil's Advocate (suspend preconceptions) and produce just as strong an opposite argument without being able to prove it any more effectively?

Something about markets remaining irrational longer than investors can remain solvent plays into this as well, doesn't it?

ok I heard the same call and went back and listen to it. There is some ambiguity as Elon says we "will meet the requirements" but does not give the timeline and Zach states they are waiting for the treasury guidance.

My take was they would do everything they needed to meet the requirements at some point in the future but it was not clear when. I hope I am wrong as it will be a huge competitive advantage to Tesla. GM has already stated they only expect $3750 in 2023 and the full credit by mid decade.

Sadly the Biden administration continues to change the parameter of the IRA, so it's actually impossible for any company to know with full certainty how much they will qualify for. Companies will try to comply the best they can within reason. Tesla is best positioned to maximize and capitalize on IRA incentives.

 

[elasalle]

I am not sure if this has been posted here. Could this be the reason for the selling pressure?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603416986876186625

Tesla should announce a buy back today (last day just like for Elon ..)
If things get crazy at least they can take some good advantage ... will they do it .. hell na ....

 

[tslalala]

Is Elon selling again?

The price action makes me wonder too. We need to remember that since the TSLA stock price has gone down so much this quarter that many funds may be forced to sell TSLA shares since fund rebalancing happens today.

 

[dl003]

If you feel stressed out about the stock price, might be good to turn off your computer, go outside for some fresh air, and then come back to update your resume for a 2nd job. Desperate time.

 

[insaneoctane]

Q4 record production, record delivery, and close to 50% growth (in spite of COVID shutdowns) is absolutely guaranteed at this point.

Guaranteed? Brave wording re:TSLA at times like these...