Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

Deleted, ban-worthy post

There is a thread for this....

please please please?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Ran into an interesting situation from two potential buyers today. They were wondering when the auto park feature would be available again and implied that they understood that it wouldn’t be available until new sensors were installed on cars that didn’t have them. I was under the impression that USS was gone for good and that the function would be looked after by tesla vision. These guys are adamant about waiting for the new hardware and that lots of buyers are waiting. I think they’ll be waiting awhile but maybe I misunderstood.

Can anyone shed any light on that?

 

[Curt Renz]

Cathie Wood's ARK Invest bought TSLA for the seventh session out of the last eight.

Today: ARKK bought 20,458 TSLA shares

 

[mars_or_bust]

Graham Stephan’s critical note. It is true about lots of broken promises

Hard to take seriously a FTX shill, promoting Shiba inu and similar crap. Sasha Yanshin has a good take on him and similar pseudo analysts:
Deleted material

 

[MC3OZ]

Well in Auto they have BYD and others. On energy they are competing with their cell provider, CATL. Since CATL has 34% of world marketshare this puts Tesla in an awkard and vulnerable spot. Maybe ok for a couple of years but it could get ugly as competitors ramp. CATL is directly competing for large solar projects today and has won several in North America.

EVs and energy storage are ultimately very large markets with plenty of room for growth, that often means there is room for a few competitors.

BYD is the closest competitor, so far CATL isn't building cars, working on FSD or Robots.

Before the recent downturn what we can say sis that when Tesla packages up batteries into cars and energy storage they have the highest mark up per kWh, and a lot of that is due to the total product ecosystem including software.

I admit energy storage batteries are likely to be a competitive market, where cost per kWh/cycle is a big factor in any purchasing decision.

Energy storage was always a big part of battery day IMO, To be really competitive on energy storage cost Tesla needs 4680 cell production to work.

Last time I checked the raw materials component of LFP batteries was $8-$12 kWh. That might have changed, but most of the cost is cell production and refining the raw materials to battery grade. The strategy outlined in battery day will take a while to play out. But producing cells in house, and having deep control over raw materials supply chains is a big advantage.

I would not underestimate CATL or BYD, but I don't think CATL or BYD being successful is terminal for Tesla ,accelerating the mission, expands the market.

If is fair to say that a lot hinges on the success for the 4680 production ramp, but Tesla still makes a good margin on using cells from other suppliers.

If 4680 ramps fast, Tesla can get on the leader board for world wide cell supplies.

We are seeing that apart from production it takes time to line up all of the raw materials and the raw materials processing. CATL does have an edge from being in the business longer, and having well established supply chains.

 

[nativewolf]

Enh, Hornsdale paid itself off in two years. At those rates, one year is half the price. And that's assuming the grid can handle not having that buffer in the meantime (storage also replaces new peaker plants) Tesla's Big Battery In Hornsdale Earned Back Its Cost In 2 Years, Highlighting Why Renewables Are Beating Coal


General comment: Future Self Driving

They displaced very very expensive grid/ frequency balancing services. The most expensive electric power there is by a long shot. That is a lot of the current market. Once battery has that captured (and it will) the next most profitable is a long long drop. Basically time shifting peak demand. @petit_bateau and other experts could weigh in I am just sounding caution alarms to not get carried away with extravagant profit forecasts. Both because the value of the batteries decreases to the utilities and because other vendors may be better positioned ina price war.

 

[UrsS]

It’s a blessed thing my opinion of Mr Musk’s command of English and ability to use apposite quasi-literary terms now is quite low….

…..otherwise I should be rather petrified at his “coup de grâce” reference. Let us all pray he does not know what that truly can mean.

Well, to the best of my knowledge “coup de grâce” is French - not English.

 

[Stretch2727]

Ran into an interesting situation from two potential buyers today. They were wondering when the auto park feature would be available again and implied that they understood that it wouldn’t be available until new sensors were installed on cars that didn’t have them. I was under the impression that USS was gone for good and that the function would be looked after by tesla vision. These guys are adamant about waiting for the new hardware and that lots of buyers are waiting. I think they’ll be waiting awhile but maybe I misunderstood.

Can anyone shed any light on that?

It's pretty clear right on the Tesla website.

Tesla Vision Update: Replacing Ultrasonic Sensors with Tesla Vision | Tesla Support

Safety is at the core of our design and engineering decisions. In 2021, we began our transition to Tesla Vision by removing radar from Model 3 and Model Y, followed by Model S and Model X in 2022. Today, in most regions around the globe, these vehicles now rely on Tesla Vision, our camera-based...

www.tesla.com

 

[Ogre]

Well, to the best of my knowledge “coup de grâce” is French - not English.

I think Musk said that referring to de-platforming the Twitter bots, and it wasn't referencing anything about Tesla at all.

Every Musk post has a context. You just have to figure out where Musk (usually the bathroom) and what prompted the tweet and they are all completely transparent.

 

[mongo]

Energy storage was always a big part of battery day IMO, To be really competitive on energy storage cost Tesla needs 4680 cell production to work.

Do you mean in terms of dry electrode or silicon anode? Because LFP doesn't need cylinders. And utility storage doesn't need high gravimetric nor volumetric energy density.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1433823519146577920

 

[EVWatcher]

I really hope there’s a public statement from somewhere regarding how tesla energy has stabilized the grid in Texas. Just watched the Houston prices for electricity today has been fascinating. It’s been over a dollar a kWh for most of the last few hours. Normally it’s 3-10 cents a kwh

Edit: has there been any info as to what kind of cut tesla takes for this auto bidder service?

 

[Beltsbear]

The bill was sponsored by Senate Transportation Committee Chair Lena Gonzalez, who claimed that Tesla falsely advertised its tech and that doing so was a safety issue.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1259287879177531392

Lena is not Lorena. There are two different people.

 

[jabloomf1230]

Fake Self Driving

Fool, self driving.

 

[mach-edriver]

Cathie Wood's ARK Invest bought TSLA for the seventh session out of the last eight.

Today: ARKK bought 20,458 TSLA shares

At this point I think it’d be more positive for TSLA if she reported she’d liquidated her holdings.

Her funds are unmitigated disasters and her cheerleading has turned into a liability.

 

[Singuy]

Graham Stephan’s critical note. It is true about lots of broken promises

I have never heard this guy doing a fundamental analysis on any company. How would he know if Tesla was trading on fundamentals or not?

Anyways, broken promises or not, every move was calculated to bring Tesla the highest amount of revenue and net income. Piss off customers?...sure...but pissed off investor?...Uh no.

 

[bigsmooth125]

I don't think it can be stated enough how historic the landslide in TSLA stock has been. Yes other stocks have had big drops in the past, even companies that went on to be giants (Amazon/Apple), I've never seen an instance where a megacap stock went down 60% in the same time span that the macro's were down 4-6%....based on no real data. The biggest drops we've seen in recent history were all associated with abrupt earnings/guidance changes or huge misses on earnings/guidance. Tesla has had neither.

Apple during it's massive drop in 2008-2009 followed the macros. Same with Amazon. This however, it not one of those cases. It's a stock being specifically targeted with massive puts positions naked shorting.

In your comparison of Tesla recently to Apple and Amazon in the past, your befuddlement stems from ignoring the elephant in the room--their CEO's behavior and reputation.

 

[Singuy]

In your comparison of Tesla recently to Apple and Amazon in the past, your befuddlement stems from ignoring the elephant in the room--their CEO's behavior and reputation.

I don't remember anyone ever awarding Bezos and Jobs some sort of passionate, kind hearted, and non-controversial CEO.

 

[MC3OZ]

Do you mean in terms of dry electrode or silicon anode? Because LFP doesn't need cylinders. And utility storage doesn't need high gravimetric nor volumetric energy density.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1433823519146577920

I mean in terms of Tesla sourcing raw materials for iron cathodes and making LFP cells in house for vehicles and energy storage.

On the vehicle side, all 4680 and structural packs is advantage.

For energy storage, cylindrical LFP is possible, I don't know why Tesla would make cells in another format.

It is just a hunch that Tesla will make 4680 LFP cells. They may prefer to buy prismatic from Chinese suppliers, but the IRA encourages North American production.

 

[nativewolf]

I have never heard this guy doing a fundamental analysis on any company. How would he know if Tesla was trading on fundamentals or not?

Anyways, broken promises or not, every move was calculated to bring Tesla the highest amount of revenue and net income. Piss off customers?...sure...but pissed off investor?...Uh no.

Same thing don’t piss off your customers, they will leave you as soon as they can

 

[JRP3]

No doubt you'd sell your losers who probably have no hope or less hope of coming back. But who sells your long maturing goldmine, am I right?

Apparently many people.