Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TSLA Siempre]

We all need to face the facts that demand is way down and its not just for Tesla, Its for almost all EV's. When Gas prices was pushing $5-$6 a gallon everyone turned towards EV's and now gas is back down to $3 and the demand has dropped considerable. The days of waiting 6-12 months for a Tesla to come in is over and they have plenty of inventory sitting all over the US (I have never seen so many Model S vehicles ready for immediate sale) and they are having trouble moving them even with offering the $7500. It will take a long time to recover and there is probably more down side.

Should improve after January 1st 2023 with IRA at least for the Y.

 

[Nocturnal]

While higher gas prices undoubtedly boost EV sales and falling gas prices do not, I think your fundamental premise is wrong. I think lower auto sales overall is likely the culprit for weak demand. This affects EVs and ICE vehicles. While the impact on TSLA is IMHO greatly overdone, I believe that there is a sticky recessionary fear that is impacting all large purchases and agree it will probably be for a while. Since tech is prone to overreaction, it's being overreacted on right now. No need to be so extreme.

I’m worried about the economy but it’s not like people stopped buying cars after 2000 or 2008. We just saw discounts and lower volume.

Tesla can handle lower prices no problem. Volume is low so less of an issue as well.

 

[MXWing]

I clicked back and forth between Model 3 and Model Y for the socal market to check inventory.

One of the times, I saw 4 results for Model Y. A minute later, everything is gone again.

So Tesla is either spoofing or people are constantly refreshing to pounce before end of year.

Being ~ 8 hours away, Tesla can practically run circular loops with the delivery trucks.

 

[EVMeister]

Everything doesn't suck. I'm holding to my shares because I think I will still have a good return from here based on my time horizon, despite my misgivings about recent events. But you simply cannot say that selling the stock to avoid a worst case scenario for Twitter is actually a "good sign" for Tesla. That's ridiculous.

I don't think this is complicated or requires some sort of mental gymnastics... If Elon thought Tesla would be significantly harmed by a bad recession, he likely wouldn't have sold. If he thought the share price needed to remain as high as possible to help with capital raises, he wouldn't have sold. It'a a good sign that the company CEO (or "Technoking") feels the company is strong enough to weather even a severe recession without needing to be propped up.

 

[rallykeeper]

Still no 3s or Ys in Az.
I wonder if they had Used option checked.

Not a surprise. It definitely seems like the $7500 offer is working for Model 3/Y. (Or Tesla started throttling production at the same time). Northern California Model Y supply makes complete sense. Freemont produces more than 500 Model Ys a day and there's always supply late in the year.

For fun, I just checked LR Model X in Arizona. 10 available within 50 miles of Phoenix (none with FSD).

Something has definitely changed in the Model X supply/demand equation from prior quarters.

Hopefully, we'll start to get some clarity in the coming months about whether they are simply undoing the wave, whether there's something else temporary (like weather issues) or if it's something more fundamental.

Model X doesn't matter in the bigger financial picture, but it is interesting.

 

[2101Guy]

Does Tmc have a max amount of people that can be put on ignore?

No, but also no limit on the people who say they have put people on ignore...then forget they didnt do it..and respond to the "ignored" later on.

 

[2101Guy]

Just sold positions in two other equities to free up some capital. I just can’t use it to buy more Tsla right now …. Prob picking up some aapl

Tsla is being unfairly punished … it’s an amazing company, but I’m not sold on the fact that this sell off is complete yet

Its not. But the post I made when it was at $140 and i stated that it "had more downward room to go" got moved to "snippiness", so Im hesitant to say how far further down I think it will go

 

[verystandard]

Tesla also have incentive for Canada Model 3/Y too and there are still plenty of them in stock as of right now.

What it needs for 2023 and onward (to react with the upcoming recession) is a Tesla Model 3 (Or even a lower tier model) that will eligible for the iZEV Program incentive once again. Model 3 SR+ Used to be eligible but since Tesla upped the price they are no longer eligible.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Right_Said_Fred

What is your take on current market conditions?

Has Elon commented on it?

Are you trading options through it?

Thank you,

I’m not sure what you mean by ‘Has Elon commented on it?’ Should he have? I don’t hear much from the CEOs of GM, Ford, VW, BYD, NIO either.

The market is irrational (to the downside). This is one of those rare moments where future fortunes are being made, or being squandered. Those holding or buying at this level are doing themselves a huge favor. Those who are selling (forced or voluntary) are doing the opposite. They will come to regret this day. At least, that’s my conviction.

I don’t know if the bottom is in and I don’t expect to see a quick recovery, but it will come. In the short term times may be hard, due to the economy, but Megapack, Semi - both of which are recession proof - Cybertruck and Model 2 will carry TSLA during the next big move up. I’m not even counting on FSD.

That’s why I’m buying. I did so the whole of last week. I’m also playing with short term options a bit, but that’s just in my trading account. Not relevant to this thread.

 

[Stretch2727]

If you go to EV-CPO there are 52 new Model Y's.

39 of these are in California....many for direct pick up at Fremont. So it looks like they are selling them as them come off the line.

 

[CHGolferJim]

If,and not when, this carnage ends, subsequent rally could be equally epic
Lots of trading opportunities down the road
Right now, too unpredictable, at least for me

Yep, I’m only dabbling until January. A new buy-write today, don’t want to touch anything else: bought 300 at $115.87 and if a limit order executes for 3 x 1/6 $120 CC (based on retirement account buying), could snag $9/share for 8 DTE.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Stock limbo. How loooooowwwwww can you goooooo?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Not a surprise. It definitely seems like the $7500 offer is working for Model 3/Y. (Or Tesla started throttling production at the same time). Northern California Model Y supply makes complete sense. Freemont produces more than 500 Model Ys a day and there's always supply late in the year.

For fun, I just checked LR Model X in Arizona. 10 available within 50 miles of Phoenix (none with FSD).

Something has definitely changed in the Model X supply/demand equation from prior quarters.

Hopefully, we'll start to get some clarity in the coming months about whether they are simply undoing the wave, whether there's something else temporary (like weather issues) or if it's something more fundamental.

Model X doesn't matter in the bigger financial picture, but it is interesting.

In Europe we are not even able to order the regular Model X yet (and regular Model S). My brother reserved one and has been waiting for almost two years now. If there isn’t enough demand in the US, there’s still plenty in Europe and others parts of the world.

 

[EVNow]

Stock limbo. How loooooowwwwww can you goooooo?

Post after post of people capitulating in the options thread ...

 

[Eugene Ash]

This is either one of the best opportunities in market history or we are all idiots.

I’m 90% sure I’m not an idiot.

Let us know when you're down to 80%. We might be able to time the bottom!
Jokes aside, this is unnatural what's happening to TSLA.
I'm looking at MSFT, and I'm confident Amy is buying back, as it is down less than a 1% today. So this looks like a very tight spring. We're not uncertain that the fundamentals are epic for next year. Even if car demand goes down, you still can sell cells to business customers in the shape of semis and megapacks. These two technologies have to just be [lower TCO] cheaper than their diesel and nat gas peaker competition. This counter-cyclical is built right into 1 company!

 

[EVNow]

From what others reported in this TMC thread, the $3,750 incentive was available to all people while the $7,500 was incentive only for those who had reservations, were able to pickup, but had not yet picked up.

I think if you scored a inventory vehicle, you would get the 7.5k too.

When they first announced the 7.5k incentive, total of 7 vehicles were available near me. None now, ofcourse.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The last sales were NOT to free up cash for TSLA but to free up cash at the expense of TSLA for something else that must not be named. TSLA currently has $21 billion on hand now and is increasing not decreasing at the current moment.
But that all is secondary to me.... I am primarily upset in the way Elon has decided to sell. He could be using dark pools to sell without dropping the price and would have ended up with more money that way, without upsetting the share price as much.

You are missing the entire Taiga for the forest, nevermind the trees: Within 5 yrs, 4 mths Elon will need to sell ~150 MILLION shares of TSLA just to pay the income taxes he'll owe on executing his CEO stock options before they expire.

How do you think Elon selling 150M shares within 5 yrs affects the SP? That's 30M/yr avg EACH YEAR. That's more than he sold in 2021, and more than he sold in 2022. EVERY YEAR, unless he sells them all at once (either ASAP, or as late as possible).

Look at the limits - first the lower time frame: Elon's excercise price is around $23/share. If the SP was still at that level (it was there 50 mths ago), then he'd owe NO INCOME TAXES (no net gain). He'd just need the $7B in cash in order to excercise the shares. Now as @mongo showed us upthread today, Elon can get that cash by selling half the shares (ouch), or by shaking his OTHER couches to find a space $7B. Then let the SP ride up over time, and pay just capital gains taxes on subsequent sales.

Now let's look at the Upper Limit - for convenience let's just call it the ATH of $412 from Nov 4, 2021. If Elon sells 150M shares to pay his imcome taxes at $421, he gets nothing, the Gov't gets $62B, and WORSE for TSLA shareholders, $62B in capital is extracted from the Market. What effect do you think that will have on Tesla's Market Cap?

Let's use the past 13 mths as a guide. Sure some of this drop is macros. Let's factor that out: QQQ down 33% since Nov 4, 2021 while TSLA is down 72.5%. Let's attribute ALL of the difference to Elon selling TSLA and bears jumping in on the shorting opportunity. That's a 40% drop in Mkt Cap, or roughly -500B in Mkt Cap due to the selling.

So that's the estimate of our ratio of Elon's selling to the drop in Mkt Cap: Elon sold ~$40B in shares and it cost $500B in Mkt Cap, so that's approx a 12:1 ratio of shorting to selling. And that's how you estimate how Elon selling 150M shares within 5 years would affect the Mkt Cap: it'd have about the same affect as selling 1.8B shares of TSLA which is roughly 80% of the float. Yeah. Gulp. This is an unavoidable future, IMO. There IS NO dark pool big enough to float 1.8B shares of TSLA. Even the S&P 500 addtion as only about 600M shares (about a third of the selling Elon needs to do)

Where do you think that would leave the SP? Below $23? At what point in selling can he execute and not pay any income taxes? Do you see the point I'm trying to make is that BOTH alternatives (sell now, or wait to the end) winds up with a substantial dip in the SP, and Elon selling most of his shares in a lump while paying minimal taxes? Isn't it better to do this sooner, get the disruption over with, so the company can built value back into its SP?

How can we avoid this? Elon has to excercise all his stock options at a SP low enough that he can pay the income taxes in cash. And given the number of shares involved, it's better if he can afford to but more with any set amnt of cash he may have, then he'll have to sell half of the rest to pay the taxes. It's just that simple. And that's best case, if he still have the fire in his belly after this decades long grind. Maybe he'll want to get out, maybe he'll want to stay in (we're generally not helping ATM).

At any rate, this is my profound hope. And hope is a dangerous thing...

Cheers to the longs!

 

[KBF]

The best catalyst is the bottom..lol.

Seriously tho, the chance of a stock going up is higher and higher as we hit ATL. Shorts will have to cover and take profit. There has never in history got rich because they were longing a shorting position and hodl for 30 years..lol. if that person exist then they are down 99%.

The beginning of the bull market was March 2009. Did anyone in 2009 felt like the world was heading to a rosy place?

I started investing for the first time in February of 2009. Up to that point I had only done GIC's. My dad set up a meeting with his broker, and I was convinced by all the apocalyptic rhetoric in the media (to bet against their predictions) - there was such a panic that either my cash in the bank was going to be useless anyway, or I may as well invest when everyone else has lost their head. I still chose businesses I thought had good fundamentals and made a valuable product that I used myself or could see how it helped our society.

It worked out okay for me. I generally don't try to predict specific outcomes (aka I wasn't predicting things would be 'rosy'), but I hold space for multiple possibilities, and try to include that in my business decisions. Sometimes you have to gamble a bit and make a decision that takes both good and bad into account - a compromise. I didn't go "all in" the market in 2009, even though it would have turned out even better, but I had a backup plan in case things went south. I think that's always a viable strategy - even if it's at the cost of "even better profits". I still have several positions that I have kept since 2009, and they've done well because they had nowhere to go but up. I also have made mistakes in hindsight, like not pulling out more money in January and putting that into savings, but I'm not going to double down on my mistake by panicking now. I will be disappointed if we don't see some recovery in TSLA for the New Year, though!

 

[GBleck]

Perhaps a dumb question but has anyone found any evidence for or against Elon having open TSLA backed margin loans currently? Lots of speculation but any hard or even soft evidence?

 

[lafrisbee]

On a smaller, more local level----
FPL (Florida Power and Light) is now offering one price EV charging. Now this is only from the commercial I saw because I ain't got no Cyber(nota)truck YET) so I ain't investigating it more, But it is foreshadowing the trend of EV adoption.
FPL will install a level 2 charger, and charge a set fee of $38/month for unlimited charging in off peak times.