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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Not sure what to make of it, but Silk-Faw, a chinese-american joint venture for electric supercars,
was supposed to establish a firm in Reggio Emilia, Italy, in a larger area that hosts many supercars brands (Ferrari, Maserati, Lamborghini, Pagani, but also Ducati, etc.). This is the so-called Motor Valley (or "Tumor valley", for some of us).
The investment was around a billion euros, but never materialized.
Silk-faw announced this 2 years ago but they didn't even buy the land.
was supposed to establish a firm in Reggio Emilia, Italy, in a larger area that hosts many supercars brands (Ferrari, Maserati, Lamborghini, Pagani, but also Ducati, etc.). This is the so-called Motor Valley (or "Tumor valley", for some of us).
The investment was around a billion euros, but never materialized.
Silk-faw announced this 2 years ago but they didn't even buy the land.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
It doesn't show that to me.
It shows someone is making up a silly excuse for why they're gonna miss 50% this year.
He's using the same excuse others have tried to use here previously and all been called out on it--- insisting they only meant 50% overall for a period of years.
Ignoring (despite even quoting it in his thread) that Zach and Elon both SPECIFICALLY guided 50% -for 2022 over 2021-
Which they're likely (though not assured yet) to miss.
It'll still be massive growth, but if it's under 1.4M than it's absolutely not what the guidance was for this year.
The actual source that explains why his own argument is bad but then dismisses the reason said:
Well. Yes. Because that's literally what they did. 50% or greater growth for this year specifically
And not just in the Q3 call, but in every single quarterly call this year where they called for 50% or greater growth this year
This was already shown back on the last round of Troy bashing where to finally put it to rest he actually linked to the audio of them each promising 50% YoY growth this year specifically every single quarterly earnings call in 2022 so far.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Respectfully disagree. Fourth option is to cancel the order. These are the decisions of real buyers that will impact Tesla's demand. We know supply is on the rise due to Giga Austin ramp, car loan interest rates are relatively very high, and I assure you that the "competition" (albeit inferior) will find a way to make that sweet sweet government subsidy nectar apply to their products. I agree that I assumed incorrectly, but, many others did too - influenced directly from Tesla's last earnings call...but I disagree that it's not a Tesla problem to solve.
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So, this is saying that if you interpret 50% annual growth target based on 2020's 500,000 vehicles, (500,000x1.5^t), they are way ahead of their targets.
Does Tesla interpret it that way? Or is it really 50% yoy?
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Eh…..what is Larry smoking here???
Tesla has had a great year of growth, no need for sycophants to twist a word pretzel together to try and justify how managements guidance for 50% growth in 2022 is somehow based on an extrapolation of figures from 2 years earlier - when in fact it would be clear to a 5 year old listening to this years earnings calls that it was based on growth over last years actuals.
Honestly 40% or more growth is bloody fantastic and there is no need to gaslight the situation into anything else.
nope - on earnings calls all year they have been targeting 50% growth over last years actual results (not some hypothetical 2021 results based on a several ywars old projection).
Latest guidance is an average of 50% over the next few years. So it has not changed.
It looks like growth this year will be less than 50% YoY, but next year will be well above 50% YoY (if there is just Q4 annualised plus moderate growth from Berlin and Austin would give about 2.1 million about 60% growth).
Edit: Without COVID forced shutdowns and supply chain issues YoY growth would have been well above 50%, but next year probably less than 50%. Short term distruptions affect changes in YoY growth, but have no effect on long term average growth. As it is impossible to predict force majeure events, it makes sense to target average growth over a few years.
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Elon liking a thread that emphasizes his long term multi year goals of 50% growth annually is not the same as Elon refuting management comments (including his own) made during 2022 earnings calls.
To try and claim that all those comments were in fact referencing a projection based on figures from years earlier (without clearly stating that during each earnings call) would likely be a clear cut violation of US securities laws.
Market share is always a relative number/percentage, no? Not sure what you mean.
cliff harris
Member
I would really like to see another green day before judging this the bottom and accumulating...but it looks like the P&D report will come out Monday when the market is closed right?
Are other people weighing the same dilemma and planning on buying today anyway?
Are other people weighing the same dilemma and planning on buying today anyway?
CyberDutchie
Active Member
A nothing burger. Elon was very clear on the calls that the 50% is the average for the coming years till 2030. Some years it will be less, some years it will be more.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Yes
Not an answer to your question, but interesting data collection I just found while surfing the tesla-twittersphere:
Tesla Megapack Tracker
Map of Tesla and other big battery installations. And more info around battery storage...lorenz-g.github.io
Has among other goodies yearly estimates of percentage of storage cell capacity of total Tesla (automotive+storage).
That's interesting. I think their methodology misses the smaller and/or non-publicised storage. Here is my annualised tracking of actual/forecast with 2022 being of course in-progress and very dependent on the Q4 storage shipments. Tesla needs to ramp storage very fast towards the end of the decade to meet their stated targets. Even then the storage product sales would still only be a small fraction of automotive sales in revenue terms. I have been concerned that Tesla storage progress in recent years has not been as good as it should have been. Fingers crossed that is changing.
(Nonetheless I've got 30 kWh of storage on order from SolarEdge rather than Tesla, because cost & delivery).
I meant I expect them to increase the percentage market share, but if that doesn't happen the raw sales numbers will still continue to increase.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Options Open Interest numbers based on Thursday's trading come out at 7:00 am ET (updated once/day). I'd look at them before getting your likes up.
@Papafox published Wed's numbers in his comment #3,857 but those OI data are 37 hrs old now. Intraday, you can also look at the Options Volume. They are updated approximately hourly during the main session, and available for example here:
TSLA Open Interest, Volume and Max Pain | maximum-pain.com
Looking at earnings call transcripts it looks like they use both 50% YoY and 50% average. However, the Q4 2019, Q1 2021 and latest guidance is clear that it is long term average growth.
Q3 2022 earnings call
"As we look ahead, our plans show that we're on track for the 50% annual growth in production this year"
"On the delivery side, we do expect to be just under 50% growth due to an increase in the cars in transit at the end of the year, as noted, just above"
"But as I said earlier, we are extremely confident of a great Q4, and we anticipate continuing to grow our vehicle production sales deliveries by -- on average 50% a year as far into the future as we can see."
"We -- to the best of our knowledge, we believe that Tesla will continue to grow deliveries and revenue production at a 50% or greater compound annual growth rate. It might occasionally be a year that is a little less, and then some years would be maybe a little more or a lot more. In some of our out-year planning, we see potential annual growth rates that are in excess of 50%."
Q2 2022 earnings call
"And finally, despite losing more builds in Q3 than expected, we're still pushing to reach 50% growth this year"
Replies to a question about long term growth, indicate they are working on removing roadblocks to 50% growth
Q1 2022 earning call
"We continue to drive towards further strengthening of our financials in the second half of the year, and believe our 50% or above growth rate remains achievable for the year."
"So as Zach said, we remain confident of a 50% growth in vehicle production in 2022 versus ’21. I think we actually have a reasonable shot at a 60% increase over last year." - COVID put a stop to that
"But we’re growing very rapidly year over year. And remain confident of exceeding 50% annual growth for the foreseeable future for basically several of the next years."
Q4 2021 earnings call
"Nonetheless, we do expect significant growth in 2022 over 2021, you know, comfortably above 50% growth in 2022."
"We continue to drive for vehicle volume growth at or above 50%, as Elon mentioned, and our plans show that this is actually achievable with just our Fremont and Shanghai factories."
Q3 2021 earnings call
"As we look forward, we are clearly quite a bit ahead of the pacing required to achieve our target annual growth rate of 50% this year."
"You know, our goal as a company here is to grow on an average pace of 50% per year. And so you can extrapolate that out."
"Over the last 12 months, we've done about 430,000 cars of production. And based upon everything that we know in the factory, where the bottlenecks are, what the potential is, we're targeting to increase that another 50%."
"We're going to grow as quickly as is feasibly possible with an eye toward a 50% annual growth rate."
Q2 2021 earnings call
"Yeah, given concerns over cell's bottlenecking growth, our target is to grow the cell supply ahead of the 50% year-on-year growth targets of the vehicle business"
Q1 2021 earnings call
"As we look forward, our plans remain unchanged for long-term growth of 50% annually, and we believe we're on track to exceed that this year as we guided to last quarter."
Q4 2020 earnings call
"We continue to expect a long-term volume CAGR of 50%, of which we may materially exceed this in 2021."
"We are entering a series of long-term agreements with preferred suppliers to ensure that not only you're going to have enough quantity to support the growth, 50% CAGR as Zach mentioned earlier, but also good pricing with appropriate sharing of the risk."
"I mean, that said, we do think that we can maintain a growth rate in excess of 50% per year for many years to come. And at least, I'd like to -- yes, at least, look forward to many -- for many years to come. I think this year, we may track to a fair bit about 50%, but we don't want to commit to that, but at least that's what it would appear, and the same again next year. It appears to be meaningfully above 50%."
Q3 2020 earnings call
"Yes. I mean I think the tricky thing with trying to predict things midway through an exponential is that if things are doubling every year or even just growing 50%, then if you shift one — plus/minus one year, it has a huge effect on the number. So — and it sounds like, wow, you either massively exceeded or massively undershot. But it's — actually, what's going on is a giant S-curve."
Q2 & Q1 earnings calls - 50% not mentioned
Q4 209 earnings call
"Yeah. I think a few years ago, I said I -- yes, I think on our [Indecipherable] a few years ago, I said in my estimate, for us is that, Tesla would grow at an average compound annual rate -- average rate of in excess of 50%. I still hold to that belief."
Q3 2022 earnings call
"As we look ahead, our plans show that we're on track for the 50% annual growth in production this year"
"On the delivery side, we do expect to be just under 50% growth due to an increase in the cars in transit at the end of the year, as noted, just above"
"But as I said earlier, we are extremely confident of a great Q4, and we anticipate continuing to grow our vehicle production sales deliveries by -- on average 50% a year as far into the future as we can see."
"We -- to the best of our knowledge, we believe that Tesla will continue to grow deliveries and revenue production at a 50% or greater compound annual growth rate. It might occasionally be a year that is a little less, and then some years would be maybe a little more or a lot more. In some of our out-year planning, we see potential annual growth rates that are in excess of 50%."
Q2 2022 earnings call
"And finally, despite losing more builds in Q3 than expected, we're still pushing to reach 50% growth this year"
Replies to a question about long term growth, indicate they are working on removing roadblocks to 50% growth
Q1 2022 earning call
"We continue to drive towards further strengthening of our financials in the second half of the year, and believe our 50% or above growth rate remains achievable for the year."
"So as Zach said, we remain confident of a 50% growth in vehicle production in 2022 versus ’21. I think we actually have a reasonable shot at a 60% increase over last year." - COVID put a stop to that
"But we’re growing very rapidly year over year. And remain confident of exceeding 50% annual growth for the foreseeable future for basically several of the next years."
Q4 2021 earnings call
"Nonetheless, we do expect significant growth in 2022 over 2021, you know, comfortably above 50% growth in 2022."
"We continue to drive for vehicle volume growth at or above 50%, as Elon mentioned, and our plans show that this is actually achievable with just our Fremont and Shanghai factories."
Q3 2021 earnings call
"As we look forward, we are clearly quite a bit ahead of the pacing required to achieve our target annual growth rate of 50% this year."
"You know, our goal as a company here is to grow on an average pace of 50% per year. And so you can extrapolate that out."
"Over the last 12 months, we've done about 430,000 cars of production. And based upon everything that we know in the factory, where the bottlenecks are, what the potential is, we're targeting to increase that another 50%."
"We're going to grow as quickly as is feasibly possible with an eye toward a 50% annual growth rate."
Q2 2021 earnings call
"Yeah, given concerns over cell's bottlenecking growth, our target is to grow the cell supply ahead of the 50% year-on-year growth targets of the vehicle business"
Q1 2021 earnings call
"As we look forward, our plans remain unchanged for long-term growth of 50% annually, and we believe we're on track to exceed that this year as we guided to last quarter."
Q4 2020 earnings call
"We continue to expect a long-term volume CAGR of 50%, of which we may materially exceed this in 2021."
"We are entering a series of long-term agreements with preferred suppliers to ensure that not only you're going to have enough quantity to support the growth, 50% CAGR as Zach mentioned earlier, but also good pricing with appropriate sharing of the risk."
"I mean, that said, we do think that we can maintain a growth rate in excess of 50% per year for many years to come. And at least, I'd like to -- yes, at least, look forward to many -- for many years to come. I think this year, we may track to a fair bit about 50%, but we don't want to commit to that, but at least that's what it would appear, and the same again next year. It appears to be meaningfully above 50%."
Q3 2020 earnings call
"Yes. I mean I think the tricky thing with trying to predict things midway through an exponential is that if things are doubling every year or even just growing 50%, then if you shift one — plus/minus one year, it has a huge effect on the number. So — and it sounds like, wow, you either massively exceeded or massively undershot. But it's — actually, what's going on is a giant S-curve."
Q2 & Q1 earnings calls - 50% not mentioned
Q4 209 earnings call
"Yeah. I think a few years ago, I said I -- yes, I think on our [Indecipherable] a few years ago, I said in my estimate, for us is that, Tesla would grow at an average compound annual rate -- average rate of in excess of 50%. I still hold to that belief."
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One of his regular planned sells... he may be shocked to see how much less he received this time...
The classifications boggle the mind, just bizarre... why have all these complex rules are bonkers, just give $7500 credit on all EV's below, say $75k and be done with it
That being said, out of all the manufacturers wrong-footed by this, which one do you think has the agility to adapt the quickest?
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