I have a strong suspicion Tesla is going to price the Cybertruck similarly. With the single motor config being the baseline at the cost of the “Average” pickup truck, the dual motor being $10k more expensive and the 500 mile truck being $20k more than that. The fire couple years there will be an invisible placeholder for the single motor truck.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I don't know what other OEM's guided goals are, but if they were also shut down for 1.5 months then they missed their goals for the year too, tho I think Tesla is the only ones who guide 50% yoy growth in deliveries while others give a ball park number that moves as condition moves. Just judging from all of their stock prices, I don't think anyone outperformed or meet initial yearly guidance in China.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
But thats not the issue. The issue is December China sales.
Now with Berlin ramping up, Shanghai production needs to go somewhere .... and if the demand in China is softening, where do the cars go. Thats the question on Wall St. No, Thailand or UAE is not going to make up for that kind of volume.
Are you sure that’s not some click bait and an opportunity to sell more patreon subscriptions?
verystandard
Member
What China needs is new Model 3 revamp as nobody wants to buy a brand new car at 2023 that looks exactly like his nephew's 2017 Tesla model 3 (Other than darken trim/center console's difference). Something that will trigger WOW factor once again as how Model 3 did back then with one giant center screen / clean interior, which now every other chinese manufacturer copied this idea and made improvement out of it.
Also They will need a cheaper/smaller Tesla car to compete with BYD/HAN/Li/NIO.
It is fair to say that there is a lot of smoke, around and people might be reading too much into the smoke signals.
In 2022 we have had covid shutdowns in Shanghai, covid impacts on parts, logistics and possibly some Chinese deliveries.
Austin and Berlin have been slower to ramp than expected.
It is hard to say which issues caught Tesla by surprise in Q4, and which they should have seen coming earlier.
50% growth in deliveries requires a bit more than 50% growth in production, it requires sufficient timely growth in production to make 50% growth in deliveries possible within the bounds of logistics constraints.
No one is denying that there may be some demand issues in China, and other complications, like the introduction of the IRA.
A good nautical term is "clear air", get "clear air" and you can see what the boat is really capable of.
Q4 and 2022 generally have presented a succession of challenges, that is part of business. But it is fair to judge performance against the actual environment and like-for-like competition.
How are other largely foreign owned car brands performing in China?
Given more time and better logistics, can Tesla export more Chinese made cars overseas?
Are countries like Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam potential markets?
thesmokingman
Active Member
That is actually the reason Tesla is where they are. And why the Chinese competition cannot catch them. Giga presses... You need stability in model lineups to ramp, which then improves your cost basis on a Giga press.
Raisin45567
Member
Urge you to send some form of this to board of directors. It’s calm, rational, and—if anything—is a point of view that deserves to be considered.
Berlin is just ramping up the Y, which may still not be enough supply while they still need to absorb GigaShanghai's Model 3. Given that Shanghai sent over so many ships that there's not enough to carry anymore to AUS last Q, and this is with Berlin hitting 2000-3000/week throughout the quarter, hitting 5000 will only reduce the pressure a little bit while China recovers from Covid and demand resurges.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Looks like it was another one of those instances when the whole family would have better off if a machine was in charge of life/death decisions like driving a car. I hate to say it, but humans are not as rational as they should be. At least the Model Y saved them all.
And this is coming from a guy who is always worried about Osborne effect. So it is even more perplexing. This is akin to pre announcing price cuts. In a crooked way he is justifying the most recent TSLA stock sales.
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verystandard
Member
Upon closer look with this model Y it really demonstrate the structural integrity of the chassis and the engineering marvel with the car itself.
Sad to see someone chose this path with their family and kids.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Toyota sold a total of 35k RAV4 a year in Australia. After the initial bookings are delivered, its not a big market.
Robust demand in China is quite important for Tesla. I expect some announcements .... they need cheaper vehicles there.
I can think of a couple of good reasons.
The first few weeks of production in the quarter are for overseas markets plus there in some inventory in the market. They are probably also expecting more clarification from IRS. So hopefully in the next couple of weeks we hear more.
No one is arguing about the need for cheaper cars.
For the overall body shape there is only one question:- Is it right?
I would argue that the E-Type Jag was right, the VW-Beetle was right and a classic body design has lasting appeal.
There is always room to improve the interior..
But what is equally important is lowering the price, fiddling around with the body shape every few years for no good reason doesn't help lower the price,
In the case of Model 3 adding front and rear castings and structural battery pack should help lower the price.
There are other improvements that can perhaps lower the price, improve range, reduce noise, improve handling etc.
Sometimes improvements are not obvious to a casual observer.
New colors are an option that can make new cars look different, but do add additional costs in terms of parts inventory.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
That contrary to your claim he did in fact say the word "Tesla", on more than one occasion. As I keep having to say, facts still matter to some of us.
This is another blatantly false statement.
“Since 2021, companies have announced investments totaling more than $200 billion in domestic manufacturing here in America. From iconic companies like GM and Ford building out new electric vehicle production to Tesla, our nation’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, to innovative younger companies like Rivian building electric trucks or Proterra, building electric buses,” the president said.
Biden finally acknowledges Tesla's EV leadership after a year of silence
President Joe Biden on Tuesday acknowledged Tesla and the company's status as the nation's largest producer of electric vehicles.
www.cnbc.com
“Well, let me tell you, while Elon Musk is talking about that, Ford is increasing their investment overwhelmingly,” Biden said, pulling a notecard from his jacket pocket.
'Lots of luck on his trip to the moon': Biden shrugs off Elon Musk's economic fears, touts Ford investments
The president had been asked about Musk after a speech in Delaware touting the solid jobs report released earlier Friday.
www.cnbc.com
This was after Elon called him a damp sock puppet in human form.
There are valid criticisms to be made but they should never include completely false statements.
With regard to the IRA, I'm sure this has been discussed, but in case it hasn't we see a LOT of discussion around how the Model Y 5 seater has been classified as a car and thus subject to the $55K max MSRP. I agree that is totally, absurd but all we and Tesla can do is try to protest with the IRS. However, one thing I don't see much is the impact of FSD on eligibility for even the 7 seat version at current pricing. I believe the IRS rules assume the MSRP is inclusive of all options, so if we go to the board a fully loaded Model Y 7 seater prices out like this:
This is nearly $10K over even the higher $80 limit! This puts Tesla in a bit of a quandary. The options I see are:
1. Given the take rate of FSD is comparatively lower than other options, they could just say "yep, it's expensive and you lose the credit....sorry".
2. The could drop the base price of the car and other options by $10K to allow room for a $15K FSD. Not ideal, IMO, as this means lower revenue across the board for the few people that will take FSD.
3. They lower the price of FSD to $5K - tough as it is tantamount to saying "Yeah, FSD was never really worth $15K"...not a great message.
4. They do a mix of price lowering across everything (base price and ALL options including FSD.
5. FSD drops as an option and goes pure subscription only or combination of something like $5K purchase which gives you discounted subscriptions for life or whatever.
Unlike the IRS pushback, THIS decision on the 7 seater is totally within Tesla's control and this is the item they need to address ASAP (IMO) since we are in 2023 now and every day they don't address this is a potential lost sale (or at least loss of FSD purchase for those that are at all price sensitive...and, of course, under the income limits).
I might put figuring out the whole long range Model 3 scenario next on the list....and it also has a similar FSD bogey.
Just my 0.02!
- $65,990 - Model Y Long Range Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive
- $2,000 - Red Multi-Coat Paint
- $2,000 - 20’’ Induction Wheels
- $1,000 - Black and White Premium Interior
- $3,000 - Seven Seat Interior
- $0 - Autopilot Included
- $15,000 - Full Self-Driving Capability
- $1,000 - Tow Hitch
This is nearly $10K over even the higher $80 limit! This puts Tesla in a bit of a quandary. The options I see are:
1. Given the take rate of FSD is comparatively lower than other options, they could just say "yep, it's expensive and you lose the credit....sorry".
2. The could drop the base price of the car and other options by $10K to allow room for a $15K FSD. Not ideal, IMO, as this means lower revenue across the board for the few people that will take FSD.
3. They lower the price of FSD to $5K - tough as it is tantamount to saying "Yeah, FSD was never really worth $15K"...not a great message.
4. They do a mix of price lowering across everything (base price and ALL options including FSD.
5. FSD drops as an option and goes pure subscription only or combination of something like $5K purchase which gives you discounted subscriptions for life or whatever.
Unlike the IRS pushback, THIS decision on the 7 seater is totally within Tesla's control and this is the item they need to address ASAP (IMO) since we are in 2023 now and every day they don't address this is a potential lost sale (or at least loss of FSD purchase for those that are at all price sensitive...and, of course, under the income limits).
I might put figuring out the whole long range Model 3 scenario next on the list....and it also has a similar FSD bogey.
Just my 0.02!
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
On the contrary, I would say the people who are the most irrational and the craziest are those who let changes in their financial position cause them emotional pain and are the ones who are not thinking clearly. There is absolutely no point in it.
In this particular example, it was the loss of someone else's money so perhaps a little more understandable.
I've lost millions in value of brokerage account in one year and it hasn't phased me even a little. Because I'm used to my account going up and down. It always reflects a much lower value during bear markets (exception being 2020 when I was lucky enough to sell it all). But the two things that always prevent me from getting emotional is I always have enough cash/equivalents on hand to not limit my activities/purchases and I know my brokerage account will always come back.
What would make me really stupid is if i had invested a lot of money in a company with no future, like Nikola, and I knew I had lost real value. Tesla is performing up to my high expectations, I could even say that, given the serious challenges they faced with COVID shutdowns and the economic conditions, they are performing better than I would have expected. I don't think it's irrational to be very bullish on the next two years given what we have seen so far.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
How many people within the income limit buy a car worth $90k ?
The EV tax credit income limit for married couples who are filing jointly is $300,000. And if you file as head of household and make $225,000 or more, you also won’t be able to claim the credit.
Anyway, I think fewer people will buy FSD anyway, since it is quite expensive and monthly subscription is available.Similar threads
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