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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Buffett has a thing called his "too hard pile." Most of his investments are basically toll bridges. He doesn't shoot "fish in a barrel" ... he "dumps 'em out, waits for them to stop wiggling around and then shoots 'em." With that in mind, I still think it unlikely that Buffett is buying TSLA ... but it's far more likely now than a year ago.

Buffett/Munger/BRK invested in BYD because they have a great CEO - not because they love the business. They like businesses that "any idiot could run ... because eventually one will be."
To add:

The ”Buffett selling BYD” story in that article is as follows: “The sale lowered Berkshire's holdings in BYD's total issued H-shares to 13.97% on Jan. 3 from 14.06%, a filing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange showed on Monday.”
 
It seems it's goona take high vol Model Q to destroy TSLAQ ;)
March 1st ....

I hope more than anything that there is no way Tesla will actually announce any sort of cheaper vehicle on March 1st, that they haven’t even built the factory for yet, meaning it would be a 2024 product. That would be suicidal to current entry level vehicle sales, especially in a year which Elon thinks is heading for a recession. It would be comparable to Apple announcing the iPhone 15 now with a ship date of November (which would obviously be very detrimental to the next 3 quarters of iPhone 14 sales).

March 1st will be about fleshing out the goals for the platform for the next generation vehicle lines, how costs of production will be lowered due to higher speed production, more efficiency, cheaper batteries etc. The only vehicles I would want to see announced are ones that would not cannibalise current lines much, if at all. A van. A smaller semi. A bus. A new CT variant. A boring tunnel pod. I expect there will be a good preview of the essentially finished CT production line.,

I guess they could preview a smaller, cheaper to produce passenger vehicle based on the next gen platform, but only as a premium performance model that is priced higher than the entry level 3/Y SR models (which would obviously be the same essential product that would eventually be the $25k car).
 
I hope more than anything that there is no way Tesla will actually announce any sort of cheaper vehicle on March 1st, that they haven’t even built the factory for yet, meaning it would be a 2024 product. That would be suicidal to current entry level vehicle sales, especially in a year which Elon thinks is heading for a recession. It would be comparable to Apple announcing the iPhone 15 now with a ship date of November (which would obviously be very detrimental to the next 3 quarters of iPhone 14 sales).

You seem to be missing the point here. Tesla does not order a GigaPress if there is nowhere to put it.

If the Gigapress is being shipped to Tesla, there is a factory built or space to install it. Tesla isn't going to wait until after the GigaPress is en-route to start thinking about where they are going to install it.

That is what is most interesting about this announcement. It either means someone other than Tesla has figured out how to use a GP like this. Or it means that Tesla has managed to find or build enough factory space and is preparing to launch a new vehicle out of China that requires a 9kTon JigaPress.

If this is the case (huge IF), then Tesla would be announcing a vehicle which will be going into production in Shaghai in 9-12 months. What vehicles would make most sense to launch in China first which would require a 9k Ton Gigapress? The list is fairly short here.
 
What's the confidence level this is going to Tesla???

Does it make any sense that it could be going to BYD or another competitor?

If going to Tesla, I would consider this HUGE news.


If it’s not for Tesla, my second guess is that it is for Volvo/Polestar. They announced early last year that they’re basically copying Tesla on the use of mega casting and structural battery packs. There were also rumors that the mega casting machine they ordered was going to be the same that Tesla will use for the CT.

Nio and Xpeng also announced they’ll introduce some mega casting parts, but their presses will be made in China.


“Volvo will use an 8,000-ton integrated casting machine, the same as the GigaPress rumored to be used for Tesla's Cybertruck, and higher than the 6,000-ton machine currently used by Tesla for the Model Y.”

 
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If it’s not for Tesla, my second guess is that it is for Volvo/Polestar. They announced early last year that they’re basically copying Tesla on the use of mega casting and structural battery packs. There were also rumors that the mega casting machine they ordered was going to be the same that Tesla will use for the CT.

Nio and Xpeng also announced they’ll introduce some mega casting parts, but their presses will be made in China.


“Volvo will use an 8,000-ton integrated casting machine, the same as the GigaPress rumored to be used for Tesla's Cybertruck, and higher than the 6,000-ton machine currently used by Tesla for the Model Y.”

If they are going to be updating the plant in Sweden, why would the Gigapress be shipped to China?
 
If it’s not for Tesla, my second guess is that it is for Volvo/Polestar. They announced early last year that they’re basically copying Tesla on the use of mega casting and structural battery packs. There were also rumors that the mega casting machine they ordered was going to be the same that Tesla will use for the CT.

Nio and Xpeng also announced they’ll introduce some mega casting parts, but their presses will be made in China.


“Volvo will use an 8,000-ton integrated casting machine, the same as the GigaPress rumored to be used for Tesla's Cybertruck, and higher than the 6,000-ton machine currently used by Tesla for the Model Y.”

That is what makes this bit of news super interesting.

It's either something really unexpected and potentially amazing for Tesla.

Or

It's super curious action from their competition.

Either way, big news. Just not sure yet what it means. March 1st is only 56 days off...
 
That is what makes this bit of news super interesting.

It's either something really unexpected and potentially amazing for Tesla.

Or

It's super curious action from their competition.

Either way, big news. Just not sure yet what it means. March 1st is only 56 days off...

Elon's stated many times: automotive companies are not the competition. ICE cars are the competition.
 
If it’s not for Tesla, my second guess is that it is for Volvo/Polestar. They announced early last year that they’re basically copying Tesla on the use of mega casting and structural battery packs. There were also rumors that the mega casting machine they ordered was going to be the same that Tesla will use for the CT.

Nio and Xpeng also announced they’ll introduce some mega casting parts, but their presses will be made in China.


“Volvo will use an 8,000-ton integrated casting machine, the same as the GigaPress rumored to be used for Tesla's Cybertruck, and higher than the 6,000-ton machine currently used by Tesla for the Model Y.”

Just to anchor this in reality, there's a lot of talk about castings but none have the prowess to do it, even the Chinese including Geeley. Volvo/Polestar don't have the scaling to make the cost possible. Still just talking... it's been a year since both articles and still nothing.

But there’s a problem. Remember how Liu said every time Tesla made a change in its design, LK had to make changes in its machines? Liu says many Chinese companies can’t find enough qualified people to make the designs needed for LK to fine tune its casting machines for them. “Many Chinese automakers are talking to us about building the machines, but the majority of them are still in the design process,” he says. “We have a bottleneck in designers in China.”