Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thesmokingman]

Shipping from China to AUS, EU is still international logistics ....

It makes sense to export from Austin. CT is gonna more niche in EU or Asia, just like the S/X. In the US CT is high volume, but I dunno if they are gonna be pumping them out like that. They'd need multiple lines to supply just the US.

 

[2daMoon]

I doubt there's enough demand for the CT outside the US to warrant an overseas factory, it would be much more efficient to simply make more CT's in Austin (build a second line maybe) and export them.

No, if this is a Tesla press and it is indeed going to China then I feel it must be for something other than CT. The 3/Y don't need it, neither would the S/X, so it's most likely for a NEW vehicle IMHO. Which would be the compact car, or Gen3 car. Or the Model Q.

What if this press when fitted with the right mold can put out two or maybe four castings per cycle for 3/Y/Compact production?

If so, maybe all we see going forward are 9K lb presses as they work to multiply the rate of production.

 

[MartinAustin]

Are we sure that the 2nd "nine kiloton" IDRA press is for Tesla? They just say "Asia" in their messaging.

 

[Ogre]

Are we sure that the 2nd "nine kiloton" IDRA press is for Tesla? They just say "Asia" in their messaging.

No.

Tesla seems like the most likely buyer.

But aside from that it’s anyone’s guess who is receiving it.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

We all good Tesla fam!!!

 

[MikeC]

Live Twitter Spaces with Zerosum for anyone interested: https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1DXxyvlLRXYKM

 

[Singuy]

Live Twitter Spaces with Zerosum for anyone interested: https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1DXxyvlLRXYKM

Hey look Joe is a speaker!

 

[Knightshade]

It makes sense to export from Austin. CT is gonna more niche in EU or Asia, just like the S/X. In the US CT is high volume, but I dunno if they are gonna be pumping them out like that. They'd need multiple lines to supply just the US.

Back when Elon was talking about it significantly he specifically said CT was NA only, and expressly not designed to comply with a number of EU requirements... and that they might build a different, smaller, EU truck further in the future.

This could have changed of course, but given how Tesla prefers simpler designs when possible and how many years it'd be to just satisfy NA demand that seems unlikely.

 

[EQC_]

Random question that maybe somebody here will have an answer to:

Does anybody know why there haven't been any new satellite images of the various factory sites at buildingtesla.com in over two months now?

The site indicates it last checked for new photos on Jan 3, 2023, but the newest photo of any factory is October 27, 2022.

I like to check these photos occasionally to get a quick look at factory progress (without having to watch a full fly-over video, etc.). Seems odd that no updated photos have been available for over 2 months now...

 

[CaliBear1]

Seems normal in Egypt

 

[ggr]

Mod: This is a reminder that posts about what FSD does or doesn't do are completely off topic for this thread. @Right_Said_Fred already moved a bunch of posts out, and I just moved another 22. I won't be so gentle if the discussion restarts. Also a reminder that any discussion anywhere in this forum must be civil, polite and not profane... them's the rules. --ggr

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Random question that maybe somebody here will have an answer to:

Does anybody know why there haven't been any new satellite images of the various factory sites at buildingtesla.com in over two months now?

The site indicates it last checked for new photos on Jan 3, 2023, but the newest photo of any factory is October 27, 2022.

I like to check these photos occasionally to get a quick look at factory progress (without having to watch a full fly-over video, etc.). Seems odd that no updated photos have been available for over 2 months now...

maybe the API they are using to get the images isn't working for one reason or another?

 

[oldTAVguy]

Is there a difference?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611557336300064770

Of course there is!!! Tesla Cares about their customers, they are family.

 

[willow_hiller]

How curious.

Why the cut off of January 9. What is the significance of that?

Looks like Tesla is into using some levers to induce demand, which is fine.

But only for five days?

Just thinking back to this post. This free Supercharging mile incentive expires today. Maybe we'll see an update to the website/configurator tomorrow?

 

[petit_bateau]

A cleaner and improved set of battery storage use data. You've got to love trade associations that try to sell you a report for $5k for the thing they're supposed to be promoting as an industry.

It is noticeable that for several years in the residential segment the market is twice as large in Europe as it is in USA, a trend that is seemingly continuing. I have not been able to locate data for the residential segment in China or India, though I know both are substantial and are often of the hybrid inverter type. I suspect the CN-IN-other markets are of equivalent size when added in. May I gently suggest that is resulting in a certain amount of blinkerdom amongst some folks regarding the strength of competition in the market as they are extrapolating from their local norms. Conversely in the utility segment until the last year or so the market was about evenly split US-Europe-China, but recently (2021) has biased significantly in the US's market's favour if the available data is to be believed (and I am not sure it can be). In the last year or so the data suggests growth rate in utility scale has outstripped the growth rate in residential scale. I am not sure to what extent that is an artifact of the poor quality of the residential scale data or is a true reflection of reality. If we get any plausible data released regarding 2022 I'll update, and I'll try to do that at the same time as doing the automotive stats*.

I have put some automotive battery use data in to provide a scale comparison. I've also adjusted one cell (2022 utility) myself to bridge a very suspect transition between two different data/forecast sets - hopefully we will soon learn what has actually happened.

* Please drop me a message via TMC if you see good quality stats sources that I may be missing for either the 2022 automotive or the 2022 stationary.

 

[MC3OZ]

Shipping from China to AUS, EU is still international logistics ....

Yes, but there is also probably some CT demand in China,

IMO it makes some sense for Austin to focus mainly on the US and Canada and for China to make CT for the rest of the world including RHD markets.

However, there is more than the 9000T press needed to make CT - stamping, (cold rolling), folding, GA.

Probably at least 20-30% of the Austin floor space is for CT.

CT also needs 4680 cells, but a partner like CATL or LG could make them in China.

What doesn't necessarily make sense is for CT production in China to be a higher priority than Gen3 models, particularly the Chinese designed compact.

I previously thought that it is unlikely that the Gen3 models in particular the Chinese designed compact would have a stainless steel body. But if they do, a combined factory for CT and compact models now makes sense.

IMO one advantage if seats mounted on a structural pack is it allows for the possibility of a metal roof, as the roof can be on before the seats are installed.
If a single piece casting floor casting took away the ability to have a structural pack with seats mounted on it, that is a possible step backwards IMO, especially when looking for lowest possible cost.

There are also several possibilities where the 9000T press isn't for Tesla.

I will not be surprised if we get some answers on March 1.

 

[WattsHappening]

While making CTs in Shanghai could still be taken as good news, IMHO, it is mice nuts compared to if the new IDRA press is for the new compact model. That would mean they are much further along in their release timing than most of us are assuming. That would be taken much more favorably by Wall Street and, dare I say it, even the MSM. The dialogue would change from 'demand, pricing, margin and competition issues' to 'Tesla is on the verge of releasing a much-needed compact car.'

Either way, I just want confirmation that this is being delivered to Tesla.

March 1 can't come quickly enough.

 

[lafrisbee]

So I see the MM's are having a little fun getting our hopes up, letting the Stock Price go up a little bit.

 

[Zero CO2]

I guess with solar, right ? They canceled my order because it was just powerwall.

nope powerwall only... was on hold from 11/2020 they just opened powerwall only in my area in NY state in Dec 2022

 

[betstarship]

This might be helpful to understand where the world stands, on a macro level, financially:

Mapped: Global Macroeconomic Risk, by Country in 2022

Financial markets are facing headwinds against a changing economic backdrop. Here is the macroeconomic risk map in 2022.

advisor.visualcapitalist.com