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What if this press when fitted with the right mold can put out two or maybe four castings per cycle for 3/Y/Compact production?

If so, maybe all we see going forward are 9K lb presses as they work to multiply the rate of production.

I doubt this new 9000T press would be used to make several smaller castings at once. Shooting the molten metal into various molds concurrently in a single press would be problematic from an efficiency point of view. It would be far easier and more cost effective to have several smaller presses making each individual casting.

No, I believe it's either for something new for Tesla, or it's for a competitor, which would most likely be Volvo (Polestar) if anyone at this time. But it's painted in Tesla colors, sooooo.....
 
Tao Lin from Tesla China on the price cuts:


————

Dialogue with Tao Lin: Tesla’s price adjustments

On January 6, Tesla China announced the price adjustment of Model 3 / Y, and the prices of these two domestic models also reached the lowest point in history.

However, a dramatic scene appeared.

On the one hand, users who have already bought cars crowded the store to complain about rights protection, and on the other hand, users who did not buy a car frantically placed orders and crowded the official website.

In a way, it seems that no other company is so famous and yet so controversial.

When many people are watching the price cut incident with the mentality of watching Tesla jokes, it is Tesla itself who is the most calm.

On the afternoon of January 9, Tao Lin, vice president of Tesla, who had rarely made public appearances before, accepted an exclusive interview with media including auto industry and economics.

We tried to restore the real background and logic behind Tesla's frequent price adjustments from Tao Lin's interpretation.

As for whether we agree or not, we leave the right to the readers, and this article will not make any subjective comments.

NO.1
[ About price adjustment: Tesla has never changed its strategy ]

This is Tesla's fourth consecutive round of price cuts since September last year, but it cannot be ignored that some Tesla models have also experienced six consecutive price increases in the past year.

Although the price adjustment of new energy vehicles is nothing new in the industry, Tesla has been labeled as "too casual" because of its frequent actions. How should we understand the motivation and logic behind the price adjustment? , Tao Lin gave her own complete interpretation.

Tao Lin: The price adjustment of a product is actually a forecast of the company's cost changes in the next period of time.

The biggest difference between 2023 and last year is that the epidemic has basically passed. We believe that the supply chain has returned to normal to a large extent, and there will be no such unpredictable shortages of materials as in previous years, which will bring cost uncertainty.

I personally think that the price adjustment reflects our better planning for the supply chain in a sense, and what level the vehicle cost will be, and then we make such adjustments according to this estimate.

Some consumers may also say that I bought it yesterday, and you cannot suddenly change the cost overnight, but the fact is that any company does not calculate the cost every day, but calculates it according to a time period .

At the same time, the price of industrial products cannot be immediately reflected in the end products. Some raw materials may still be used in contracts signed a few months ago, so in fact, there will be a certain lag.

Image
The several relatively large price adjustments in Tesla’s history were all due to external factors that had a certain impact on the cost. For example, if we become a domestic car, the price will definitely drop compared to pure imports, at least 15% of tariffs will be saved. , For example, after our supply chain is stabilized, it will definitely be lower than when it was shipped from abroad.

Tesla's current supply chain localization rate is already 95%, and theoretically speaking, there is not much room for improvement, so I think after this price adjustment, it should be said (price) is relatively stable.

In fact, the logic of the Tesla company is very simple. When the calculated cost changes, such as the replacement of raw materials and other price adjustments, we will immediately increase or decrease.

Compared with the previous month, consumers seem to think that we have lowered the price more, but in fact, the price last month has increased, and compared with the price before the price increase, there is not much difference.

NO.2
[ About feelings: I hope everyone can understand this pricing logic ]


On the weekend after Tesla announced the price adjustment, car owners' rights protection broke out in some Tesla stores and delivery centers across the country, and the demands of these car owners were very simple, that is, to demand compensation.

Behind every price adjustment, car companies have their considerations, and consumers have their demands. So can a balance be found between the two? Automobile Production and Economics threw this question to Tao Lin.

Tao Lin: Tesla has adopted some relatively new concepts, such as the direct sales model, such as price adjustment strategies, and we hope to gradually make everyone feel that these concepts are feasible.

Under the direct sales model, the prices are completely open and transparent, without discounts or price increases, and everyone is the same at the same time.

For example, for a traditional car, everyone buys it at a different price at a dealer, so you don’t really know whether the price you bought is the lowest or not, and you don’t know what price other people are buying. Is it fair to consumers?

I think many consumers may not be too used to the current completely transparent approach, but I personally think that as everyone gradually understands why Tesla does this, they may gradually get used to it .

NO.3
[ About the order: there are fluctuations because of the large volume ]


According to media statistics, since July last year, Tesla's global orders have declined, so there are also voices that Tesla's price reduction is because the growth rate of orders on hand can no longer keep up with the climbing speed of production capacity.

However, after the price cut, the delivery cycle of the Model Y model has changed from the previous 1-4 weeks to 2-5 weeks. Does this mean that orders have started to increase again?

Image

Tao Lin: Some media said that we lowered the price because we couldn’t sell anymore. I think it’s really nonsense.

Compared with other companies with this dealership model, Tesla’s inventory is very transparent. You may see that there are some differences between our current production and sales, mainly because of the large volume, such as some cars. on the way of transportation.

I think this is very normal and within the healthy range.

The delivery cycle also has a certain relationship with the effective working hours. For example, the Spring Festival will be a holiday, so the whole January will only have about two weeks, and it will not be able to reach full production. It will definitely be full production every day compared to October. When the output is not the same, the corresponding lead time will be different.

(Note: In addition to the domestic market, the current capacity supply of Tesla’s Shanghai factory also includes Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore and other countries)

NO.4
[ About industry competition: Tesla only focuses on products ]


From January 1 this year, my country canceled the new energy vehicle subsidy policy that had lasted for more than 10 years.

This also means that every new energy vehicle OEM that sells a new energy vehicle now loses nearly 10,000 yuan in profit, and in order to hedge this part of the loss, brands including BYD, Chery, Changan, Leapao, etc. have carried out different levels of investment. price increase.

At this time, Tesla, who chose to cut the price, instantly became the most maverick person, and was even labeled as not talking about martial arts. Some people say that Tesla's price butcher directly aggravates the internal friction between electric vehicles.

Tao Lin: When a consumer chooses an electric car, he first decides to buy a fuel car or an electric car, and then chooses which car among the electric cars. When he decides to buy an electric car, the choice is actually not that much.

Therefore, we have never regarded these other electric vehicle companies as competitors . We must work together to make the products more extreme, and then meet the needs of customers in different market segments.

Tesla currently produces only two domestically-produced cars. In fact, ordinary people still have many various needs, which may not be met by our two cars. We also hope that there will be a variety of cars in the market. Electric vehicles can satisfy everyone's needs.

From another perspective, I think China's new energy market is far from reaching the state of a zero-sum game.

In this sense, if any other electric car brand can produce a product that is much better than Tesla, and everyone rushes to buy their car, we also think it is very good, then we will hurry to improve our products . I think the current market size is not enough to buy yours, so I have to sell one less, and it is far from that time.

NO.5
[ about a few rumors ]

Tesla makes cell phones,
Tesla Model 2,
Tesla's second factory in China,
Zhu Xiaotong was promoted to Tesla's second in command,

Tao Lin said that the above rumors are not true.
 
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8K ton wording was used for a few months Q1 2021 by teslerati but after that period its all 9K.



And then when it was eventually ready for production all we have is 9K now.


My WAG: the delays for CyberTruck have been because the speed of improving the manufacturing iterations of Tesla’s in general have been faster than expected.

Tesla doesn’t want another Model 3 on their hands, where everyone knows they should gut the line and replace it with castings, etc…but they can’t afford to shut down the line.

CyberTruck will have a single casting, for the whole truck.

Yea, I can dream…
 
Thailand/Asia/Africa needs CyberTuk.(tuktuk)!!
For the record numerous manufacturers build BEC tuktuks. The list is very long and off topic here since Tesla will have nothing to do with them. From Indian builders which sell the vehicle and rent batteries through swap stations., to an endless variety of that micro utility category in China and numerous EU builders of tiny BEV delivery vehicles that category is very well served with nearly infinite variety.

This one is the Italian Postal delivery vehicle for my building in Bergamo, this one by Ligier, a French company famed for microcars and also once for Formula 1.

These microcar builders are gradually moving up, perhaps most famously Honda, whose first car was the N360 kei car. None will challenge Tesla anytime soon, but eventually…
1673318279424.jpeg
 
Just to anchor this in reality, there's a lot of talk about castings but none have the prowess to do it, even the Chinese including Geeley. Volvo/Polestar don't have the scaling to make the cost possible. Still just talking... it's been a year since both articles and still nothing.

We are assuming it is destined for an auto company.

If you remove that constraint, I think there are more possibilities.

Looking at the machine again, it is significantly different from the other ones Tesla has taken delivery of.

There is some metaphor about counting your Gigapresses before you see the castings.

1673320316034.png
 
We are assuming it is destined for an auto company.

If you remove that constraint, I think there are more possibilities.

Looking at the machine again, it is significantly different from the other ones Tesla has taken delivery of.

There is some metaphor about counting your Gigapresses before you see the castings.

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Doubtful. IDRA's colors are blue and white. Why was this one painted in Tesla colors? They probably don't look the same cuz they are different castings. And as LK said, they are still waiting to produce these for anyone who wants them but none have completed the design phase. If a competitor did achieve success, we wouldn't be reading about talk, just talk about it, but it would be all over the news.
 
Small confession.

I kind of hope they keep the US incentives as-is. It is an emperor has no-clothes situation right now. If Tesla has demand problems (in the US) they can drop in a $55k model and nobody else can respond in kind without taking a bath. If they don’t have demand problems, Tesla rakes in record margins. It’s a win-win for Tesla.

Can you imagine spending $65k on a LRYIQ when you’d be able to get a Model Y for nearly $20k less? Slightly lower range, but better performance and faster charging options. Not that GM seems able to produce more than a handful for the Tesla-nevers regardless.
 
My biggest takeaway from it was that the host should remove trolls and idiots that try to dominate the conversation faster. But I got there late. Better moderation is required. Hopefully someone that got the important points will chime in soon.
I listened for the first ~80 minutes and didn't hear any revelations, but it went on much longer....

Edit: I should clarify that I'm still at 50%+ margins for MP in 2023...includes IRA madness
 
Doubtful. IDRA's colors are blue and white. Why was this one painted in Tesla colors? They probably don't look the same cuz they are different castings. And as LK said, they are still waiting to produce these for anyone who wants them but none have completed the design phase. If a competitor did achieve success, we wouldn't be reading about talk, just talk about it, but it would be all over the news.
Tesla isn’t the only company with red colors. It is an incredibly popular color in China.

Aside from that, this is potentially so big I don’t want to get too excited about it unless I’m certain beyond a doubt.



Funny story. Way back when, I was touring Lawrence Livermore labs and they had a Cray Supercomputer. The one they had was red like in the attached image, but apparently Cray made them in all kind of different colors. Because if someone pays $??,000,000 for a computer you should be able to get it in whatever color you want.
 

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Tesla isn’t the only company with red colors. It is an incredibly popular color in China.

Aside from that, this is potentially so big I don’t want to get too excited about it unless I’m certain beyond a doubt.
The other thing that gets no press is that any casting from these machines will warp thus needing jigs. Tesla avoided this by tapping joint ventures with SpaceX by developing their own alu composite that does not warp after casting. Thus so even if there was somebody out there, they'd still need to tackle this problem. If the Chinese have a shortage of designers, what about their material scientists?

It started just over two years ago when we reported in an exclusive report that Musk hired Apple’s alloy expert Charles Kuehmann to lead materials engineering at both of his companies simultaneously.

Kuehmann earned a PhD in Materials Science & Engineering from Northwestern University in 1994 and co-founded QuesTek two years later with four other colleagues affiliated with Northwestern University to commercialize the work of his mentor and pioneer in the field of computational materials design; Prof. Gregory B. Olson, who has been called the “father of materials design” by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

Kuehmann made the jump to Tesla and SpaceX in late 2015 and he has now helped build significant teams of dozen of material engineers at both companies.

 
In the Tao Lin interview she finishes it with a confusing bit of denials. Which made me scratch my head a lot.

She apparently denies rumors about
  • Tesla making mobile phones
  • “Tesla Model 2”
  • Tesla is in the second factory in China
  • Zhu Xiaotong was promoted to Tesla’s second in command.
The first is obvious, the second 2 are a little concerning in light of the conversation about the Gigapress. The last one isn’t a rumor, Zhu Xiaotong aka Tom Zho is in fact now the second in command at Tesla. Or at least the leader of Tesla auto. Maybe that’s what she meant.

I wish we had a better translation for this bit.

Link to the full interview in original Chinese.

 
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In the Tao Lin interview she finishes it with a confusing bit of denials. Which made me scratch my head a lot.

She apparently denies rumors about
  • Tesla making mobile phones
  • “Tesla Model 2”
  • Tesla is in the second factory in China
  • Zhu Xiaotong was promoted to Tesla’s second in command.
The first is obvious, the second 2 are a little concerning in light of the conversation about the Gigapress. The last one isn’t a rumor, Zhu Xiaotong aka Tom Zho is in fact now the second in command at Tesla. Or at least the leader of Tesla auto. Maybe that’s what she meant.

I wish we had a better translation for this bit.

Link to the full interview in original Chinese.

That's ironic considering Shanghai has the lead on the 2 design iirc?
 
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