Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

I think we break the chicken barrier (140) today.

Pre-market looking good. And that’s always a good indicator.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Something’s up. That’s two favorable WSJ articles in two days

Tesla Is Still Wall Street’s Favorite Car Company

Many analysts say Tesla remains the most dominant player in the electric-car industry, despite its rough year. Nearly two-thirds of analysts are bullish, the highest share since 2014

www.wsj.com

 

[ThisStockGood]

Pre-market looking good. And that’s always a good indicator.

Seems like a broad upbeat market today, at least regarding the EV stocks. Fingers crossed

 

[avoigt]

Hmmm. I wonder how this will affect Norway’s transition to EV’s. Ferry’s and EV’s are kind of a way of life there.

You are being redirected...

It won't because this specific ferry transports up to 6 passenger cars at the most and is not used by Norwegians to go from A to B at all. It's a FUD story while all other ferries have no issues with transporting BEV and that's not nativity but there are good reasons for it.

The FUD media loved the story but frankly, this one ferry with its up to 6 passenger cars it sometimes transports is totally irrelevant.

Don't fall for FUD!

 

[ThisStockGood]

Small data point, but here is an article from a local newspaper in Denmark. 30 trucks with Model Ys just arrived at the newly built Tesla showroom in Ribe (a small city on the west coast of Denmark). In Copenhagen Teslas has been a very common view the last 5-6 years, but not in the small cities. Things are about to change…

Over 30 lastbiler fyldt med Teslaer ankommet: Prisnedsættelse sender chokbølger gennem bilmarkedet

 

[scubastevo80]

Has anyone done any math on the market share equation and what may happen if other companies go out of business? Some smart folks I frequently debate TSLA with point to the 2030 number goal (20m cars/year) and believe there's zero chance TSLA will be selling 1 out of every 3 cars. Given there are about 14 major global brands right now, I assume this doesn't happen unless some of these companies go out of business. Even if they sell 1 in 10 cars, that's about 6-7 million a year.

I may start looking at some of these other companies and their cash/growth/etc trends to see if this could positively impact Tesla longer-term, or if this is just a blip in many of them given COVID, supply chain issues and late adoption penalties. More than anything, I was curious if anyone else has started looking at this from a numbers perspective.

 

[CaliBear1]

Re-posting due to missing commentary with this link:

This is pretty cool to be happening in Texas.

Mod: how about "Solar power adoption in accelerating in Texas, maybe overtake California" --ggr

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615583614661443584

Population collapse is a real national security issue in China and it’s something the national government is taking very seriously. Elon didn't decide to start building worker bots because he is bored, but to hopefully provide civilization with a soft landing.

Almost every aspect of "Musk Industries" is designed to make humans a multiplanetary species, thus improving the odds of our survival. From reusable rockets, a cashless system of commerce, tunnel boring tech and EVs to AI, neural networks, Starlink, energy storage and robots, the technologies he champions are being developed for life beyond Terra.

While the robots may incidentally provide a soft landing in the event of a population collapse on Mother Earth, their primary purpose is to operate in hostile off world environments to supplement small groups of human explorers and colonists and perform extremely dangerous tasks such as asteroid mining and terraforming.

Elon is a huge fan of science fiction and he's bringing that fiction to fruition in the real world. I'm 62 right now. I sure hope I'm around for the next quarter century to see at least the first steps toward the colonization of Mars.

I would not be surprised if Musk views sophisticated artificial lifeforms as the eventual repositories of human consciousness, rendering us virtually immortal.

 

[AMN]

Something’s up. That’s two favorable WSJ articles in two days

Tesla Is Still Wall Street’s Favorite Car Company

Many analysts say Tesla remains the most dominant player in the electric-car industry, despite its rough year. Nearly two-thirds of analysts are bullish, the highest share since 2014

www.wsj.com

I am scared... did hell just freeze over? WSJ got hacked?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Some smart folks I frequently debate TSLA with point to the 2030 number goal (20m cars/year) and believe there's zero chance TSLA will be selling 1 out of every 3 cars.

If FSD Beta leads to Level 4/5 Autonomy by 2030, Tesla will be buying 7M of those 20M cars each year to build the Robotaxi Fleet. Some people have even speculated that Tesla will stop selling cars, and keep them all. This is not good financial planning. Tesla can however keep a percentage of their own production similar to their Automotive Gross Margin.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Don't fall for regurgitate the FUD!

FTFY.

Cheers!

 

[cliff harris]

If not today, I think we do this week. The only way we don't IMHO is if there is some drastic surprise downside to Q4 earnings.

I think we may be quite pleasantly surprised with the earnings reaction this time around. If you do not lurk here, or follow the company financials closely, then your entire worldview of Tesla is that its a failing company, drastically cutting prices to shift its cars, no matter what it takes, and that clearly they are losing market share to the established players such as GM and Ford and Toyota,
Not to mention the fact that Tesla Energy, Tesla solar, and the bot/dojo are basically completely alien to most investors. tesla is just 'the electric car company'. They don't really even know the semi is a thing.

When you look at it this way, I suspect people are widely expecting a big earnings miss. I also think a huge chunk of wall street think tesla must be losing money. They MUST be losing money right?

The annual re-calculating of tesla's P/E ratio is always a fun moment that long term buy and hold investors should be excited about. I chat often with a bunch of tech focused investors and they are oblivious to the P/E growth rate of Tesla. They basically don't factor anything in until it shows up as profit or P/E on google or yahoo finance.

Fun times ahead. My best guess is $150 before or very shortly after earnings call, $200 by April, $400 by year end. Cybertruck is going to be the biggest chunk of free advertising in automotive history.

 

[MP3Mike]

Do non-Tesla European owners need to punch in the SC number in the app?

Yes. (Otherwise it would have no idea which stall to activate and bill to what person.)

I find it interesting that at the US Supercharger sites that have J-1772 EVSEs that Tesla charges for, they make you either scan the QR code on the wall connector, or enter the serial number. They don't just have a simple stall number to put in. (Hopefully that label doesn't get defaced.)

 

[Nocturnal]

I think we may be quite pleasantly surprised with the earnings reaction this time around. If you do not lurk here, or follow the company financials closely, then your entire worldview of Tesla is that its a failing company, drastically cutting prices to shift its cars, no matter what it takes, and that clearly they are losing market share to the established players such as GM and Ford and Toyota,
Not to mention the fact that Tesla Energy, Tesla solar, and the bot/dojo are basically completely alien to most investors. tesla is just 'the electric car company'. They don't really even know the semi is a thing.

When you look at it this way, I suspect people are widely expecting a big earnings miss. I also think a huge chunk of wall street think tesla must be losing money. They MUST be losing money right?

The annual re-calculating of tesla's P/E ratio is always a fun moment that long term buy and hold investors should be excited about. I chat often with a bunch of tech focused investors and they are oblivious to the P/E growth rate of Tesla. They basically don't factor anything in until it shows up as profit or P/E on google or yahoo finance.

Fun times ahead. My best guess is $150 before or very shortly after earnings call, $200 by April, $400 by year end. Cybertruck is going to be the biggest chunk of free advertising in automotive history.

I think ATHs will require us to be back in a bull market but if so then we should get there fairly quickly unless we get black swan #17.

 

[Max Plaid]

Small data point, but here is an article from a local newspaper in Denmark. 30 trucks with Model Ys just arrived at the newly built Tesla showroom in Ribe (a small city on the west coast of Denmark). In Copenhagen Teslas has been a very common view the last 5-6 years, but not in the small cities. Things are about to change…

View attachment 898773

Over 30 lastbiler fyldt med Teslaer ankommet: Prisnedsættelse sender chokbølger gennem bilmarkedet

Ribe, in darkest Julland... oldest town in Denmark, no?

Do they still have the lower taxes on EV's? And are ICE still like +200% tax, or whatever it was?

 

[Mengy]

Fun times ahead. My best guess is $150 before or very shortly after earnings call, $200 by April, $400 by year end. Cybertruck is going to be the biggest chunk of free advertising in automotive history.

I'd love to see TSLA climb that quickly, but my feeling is the rise will be much slower due to the macro environment. I think we won't see much of a recovery in the majority of stocks until the Fed starts lowering rates, which I think won't happen until early 2024. In fact I think we'll go lower yet as the Fed continues to hike in small increments throughout 2023, up until they over correct and we see a huge crash in the economy. After that the Fed would likely reverse course instantly, and THEN we start going back up.

But I hope you are correct and I'm very wrong!

 

[GOVA]

I think ATHs will require us to be back in a bull market but if so then we should get there fairly quickly unless we get black swan #17.

Well, there will be endless manufactured black swan events as long as oil gets extracted. We've seen enough in past 2-3 years only.

With time, as long as green energy is getting more traction and development, those events should matter less.

We are still very far away from the average Joe to get it, join this forum and drive a Tesla or any other EV for that matter.

 

[Artful Dodger]

There it is: we tagged the Upper-BB at 09:40 E.T. on moderate volume, so now let's see how much buying interest there is going into the earnings report.



Cheers to the Longs!

 

[scaesare]

This one is fun due to the cartoons...but I believe is informative.

A Long Wind on Long Tailpipes

It is far easier to keep on burning gas than switch to electric options. This post considers and counters the long tailpipe argument.

buildingenergy.cx-associates.com

That isn't bad. Unfortunately he's incorrect on the use of engine ("Jake") brakes:

3. Use of the Fuel

Have you ever heard a semi-truck engine brake through your neighborhood? Think about that…ENGINE BRAKE! Burning fuel to slow your semi down because your semi burned more fuel than it needed to get up to speed. You’ve heard the sound. Think about the CO2 next time you hear it.

They don't use fuel. As a matter of tact they turn the injectors off and change the valve actuation such that the engine just acts like a giant air compressor (that sound you hear is the compressed gas being released after each stroke), and that load is what slows the truck.

Too bad, because those folks who might need to be convinced the Long Tailpipe argument doesn't hold water, may be convinced to dismiss the entire article...

 

[JRP3]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1617098461073264642

"It takes more electricity to drive the average gasoline car 100 miles, than it does to drive an electric car 100 miles.

If we simply count the electricity used to make the gasoline that gets burned in a normal vehicle, you need more juice than you do to move an EV the same distance. Of course, then you need to factor in the actual gasoline used (and the resulting CO2 emissions)

Plus, don't forget, it takes a bunch of water to refine gasoline. Put this all together and you've got on hell of an energy efficiency argument in favor of EV.

There is no exact calculation for how much electricity it takes to drill, transport and refine a gallon of gas, but the accepted amount is around 8 kWh. So, for 8 kWh, you can go around 22 miles (using the US. average; we know you can go over twice that if you drive a Model3)

That means that a gasoline car uses just under 40 kWh to go 100 miles. An Tesla Model 3 Long range, on the other hand, uses around 25 kWh to go 100 miles.
Even if the exact numbers need to be shifted a bit one way or the other, we're just comparing electricity use here – not the petroleum that needs to be factored in for the ICE vehicle.

So, if we were able to magically use all the electricity that is currently spent to give us gas and shove it into automotive battery packs instead, we'd use less energy and no gasoline.

So much for the long tailpipe argument. Nissan long ago used this argument when advertising the Leaf, but it's not a commonly used statistic. We wonder why.

(thanks to ThreadReaderApp)

This is unfortunately completely inaccurate. The number comes from the 8kWh of energy, (not electricity), used in refining, mostly in the form of heat generated from oil byproducts. Less than about 0.5kWh of electricity is used. This misinformation has been circulating for many years.

 

[ThisStockGood]

Ribe, in darkest Julland... oldest town in Denmark, no?

Do they still have the lower taxes on EV's? And are ICE still like +200% tax, or whatever it was?

Exactly, oldest town. Kind of symbolic tbh

Compared to ICE we have pretty low taxes on EV. EVs up to around $48k we only pay VAT (25%) - above that amount additional taxes are added.

Fun fact: the Tesla price cuts here in Denmark lowers the raw vehicle price so much, that the taxes in many cases disappear. Therefore the new prizes are extremely low compared to the competition. In Danish kroner the discount is DKK 130,000 for the MYP ($19,000) It’s maaaaaaaaad

Edit: and as a TSLA investor it’s kind of satisfying that a big part of the discount simply is taken from the tax authorities… even though it looks like all of the “damage” is on Teslas balance sheet

Edit2: Mathias Fons on twitter on the topic:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1617541982938595330