Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KBF]

Looking forward to the day they put a sticker on the back saying:

"Another Vehicle From America's Most Successful Automaker"​

Elon and Tesla seem to view customers as humans, rather than dividing us into specific nationalities, so I'd assume it would sooner be "Earth's most successful Automaker" - you might have to make your own sticker.

To be fair, both statements could be true (depending on one's metrics of 'success')

Edit: and it's this global view that got me into Tesla at the very beginning - no auto maker in my local town was even selling hybrids back in 2009 - Ford et al. dealers refused to order hybrids in for me - "We're not equipped to service them" - But Tesla shipped to my door in rural Manitoba...

 

[Mengy]

Didn't Elon already say that Master Plan 3 is basically just about increasing the scale of production? I'm not expecting a big TSLA pullback after Investor Day because the plan is basically just "MOAR" and I think even Wall Street can comprehend this.

Once Tesla has a Gigafactory design they are satisfied with they can use it as a template to copy & paste it into new factories. Same with 4680 production line, once they have the line design working well they can copy & paste it which I think is why we're seeing Giga Nevada expanding now. Even the Megapack factory, if Lathrop scales well and produces efficiently this year we'll very likely see Tesla start springing up new Megapack factories around the world just like we are now seeing with their auto factories.

At this point in time Tesla has solid foundations built which allow them to grow with super vigor and beastly speed. Hence, Master Plan III. It's a great time to be holding TSLA long.

 

[Ogre]

Didn't Elon already say that Master Plan 3 is basically just about increasing the scale of production? I'm not expecting a big TSLA pullback after Investor Day because the plan is basically just "MOAR" and I think even Wall Street can comprehend this.

Now, there will be a slight drop when Elon doesn't announce an Autonomous Electric Airplane or something like that, but I expect the current upward trend to generally continue as long as the macroeconomic situation doesn't collapse.

We've seen Tesla's stock drop during calls where Musk talked about Optimus too much.

Musk is laser focused on 2030 and beyond. Wall Street analysts have made it quite clear that they are far more focused on next Tuesday than next Decade. This disconnect means Wall Street mis-interpreting Tesla's plans is always possible; likely even.

Though Wall Street seems to love the idea of the "Model 2" so decent chance this meeting gets us a little pop. Then we get punished later when Wall Street reads too much into vague timelines.

 

[capster]

Exciting! Master Plan 3 should be most interesting.

I hope they’ll also announce that a number, say 3 to 12, Optimus prototypes are engaged in productive work at a Tesla factory—even if it’s "just" unpacking parts and putting them out for assembly.

Actually, I kinda regret posting this—I don’t want to add to all of the demands on Elon and the Tesla team. I know they already demand plenty from themselves.

Thank you Elon and thank you everyone at Tesla!

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day:
Tesla Master Plan Part 2 & 3
Tesla Investor Day Discussion
Model 2
H/W 4.0 discussion (investors)

 

[Singuy]

We've seen Tesla's stock drop during calls where Musk talked about Optimus too much.

Musk is laser focused on 2030 and beyond. Wall Street analysts have made it quite clear that they are far more focused on next Tuesday than next Decade. This disconnect means Wall Street mis-interpreting Tesla's plans is always possible; likely even.

Though Wall Street seems to love the idea of the "Model 2" so decent chance this meeting gets us a little pop. Then we get punished later when Wall Street reads too much into vague timelines.

What Wallstreet will love.

-path to solving raw material issues, lithium refining presentation

-demostrating more production of 4680

-25k smaller lower range Tesla car

-megapack production

-solar roof production

What wall street don't want

-Optimus
-robotaxi talk
-no 25k car unless it's a robotaxi-->will actually cause stock to drop

 

[MountainRatMat]

I live in a county (the size of Connecticut) that is as far right as anywhere in the country and they will not buy an electric car period. All of my friends are supportive of the Tesla mission but will not have anything to do with Elon. They will buy another brand.

It's ok, I'll never buy a smart phone and continue to open my Tesla with the key card /s

 

[Mengy]

It's ok, I'll never buy a smart phone and continue to open my Tesla with the key card /s

This is why I refuse to buy a Tesla car, I will not use key cards either. Give me physical keys I can hold in my hand, with teeth! Keys I can have Sears make duplicates of whenever I want to!!!


/s

 

[Featsbeyond50]

What Wallstreet will love.

-path to solving raw material issues, lithium refining presentation

-demostrating more production of 4680

-25k smaller lower range Tesla car

-megapack production

-solar roof production

What wall street don't want

-Optimus
-robotaxi talk
-no 25k car unless it's a robotaxi-->will actually cause stock to drop

Like this post but disagree on last point. Wall Street will like a cheaper model but I don't think they want to hear Robotaxi.

 

[petit_bateau]

First: interactive investor:
From Contract Notes:

1. 12.5 You agree that we may act for other customers in a wide range of transactions with interests that differ from, or conflict with, yours. You also agree that we will not be required to disclose to you information known to us (or another member of our Group) that is confidential to those parties and may be relevant to your interests,

That nice little clause lets them do what they will using abrdn subsdiaries or their own, leaving the scope wide open. As squall that is in the fine print few people read.

Second: Hargreaves Lansdown:
Their conflicts of interest policy is quite comprehensive:

https://media-prod.ii.co.uk/s3fs-public/pdfs/conflicts_of_interest.pdf

That seems to ensure that they will not lend your securities without disclosure.
The downside is that their fee structure is quite onerous and makes using them unattractive to those who care about actual returns. The do not disclose specific US securities custodial terms which allows them a potential exception, but diligent investors could still catch that through that conflicts of interest policy.

Note: I do not represent these observations as factual. I am not an attorney nor am I registered in any investment capacity. Further I have no qualification in the UK for elsewhere that makes my opinions valid.

Thank you @unk45 you know exactly where to look. So the cheaper bokerage ii/Aberdeen most likely are playing this game. Whereas the mid-cost brokerage HL might not be. That is helpful information for myself and most likely others.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Wall Street would act most positively over encouraging guidance for CT. Unfortunately they are not going to get that.

Elon's recent comment about the difficulty was very concerning to me. It seems like everyone is just glossing over what he said and I take it like a big waving red flag. Years ago he said something to the effect of "We're going to try this. If it doesn't workout we'll make a normal truck." I'm now worried their plans for CT could fail and what Elon said years ago could end up the reality.

 

[Singuy]

Like this post but disagree on last point. Wall Street will like a cheaper model but I don't think they want to hear Robotaxi.

The last point is what Wallstreet is afraid of. Elon calls it the robotaxi platform which already gives Wallstreet allergies. They fear that the only way Tesla can produce a mass production vehicle is via in the form of a robotaxi(no steering wheel, smaller or no screen, lots of features taken out, etc etc). Which means there won't be a 25k car until Tesla solves FSD in which Wallstreet had very little confidence in. This will stunt Tesla's growth in their opinion.

 

[EverettRuess]

It's ok, I'll never buy a smart phone and continue to open my Tesla with the key card /s

I had a land line up until a month before my Y was delivered. Cancelled the land line. I enjoy the music in the new car with my phone.

 

[Nocturnal]

Wall Street would act most positively over encouraging guidance for CT. Unfortunately they are not going to get that.

Elon's recent comment about the difficulty was very concerning to me. It seems like everyone is just glossing over what he said and I take it like a big waving red flag. Years ago he said something to the effect of "We're going to try this. If it doesn't workout we'll make a normal truck." I'm now worried their plans for CT could fail and what Elon said years ago could end up the reality.

He said that in relation to demand. If people don't like it, not "if we can't make it work".

 

[Stretch2727]

Munro said the total body side outer on rack in the picture represents 1 day of production.

Ok, but how does that give us new information? We already know Austin and Berlin are targeting 5K/week which is 250K/year. They speculated it is per day to get to 2M?

Personally I don't thing that it the meaning of that photo but we will find out March 1.

 

[unk45]

Thank you @unk45 you know exactly where to look. So the cheaper bokerage ii/Aberdeen most likely are playing this game. Whereas the mid-cost brokerage HL might not be. That is helpful information for myself and most likely others.

Emphasis on 'might not be'. Still outright misstatements on policy documents is frowned upon. Some have been expelled for such in the UK.

 

[Ogre]

It's ok, I'll never buy a smart phone and continue to open my Tesla with the key card /s

You don't need the key card, just bring your phone with you and it unlocks the car for you.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Once Tsla breaks $200, could happen today or tomorrow or pretty fast then $300 is in clear sight by March 1st

The 'V-shaped' recovery from the Dec drop has been remarkable (nicely sussed, Cathie). There are 2 technical resistance levels in steps around $230 and $290 on the way up to $300. Although after this week's Close, $200 may become support:

I anticipate the typical 'buy-the-rumor,sell-the-news' routine for Tesla Investor Day on March 1st (look at Google -7.6% today after their AI day 'Bard blunder'). But with good P&D numbers on ~Apr 3rd likely already in the bag, TSLA should continue it's march upward in Q2.

Not Ad vice.

 

[AndrewZ]

The last point is what Wallstreet is afraid of. Elon calls it the robotaxi platform which already gives Wallstreet allergies. They fear that the only way Tesla can produce a mass production vehicle is via in the form of a robotaxi(no steering wheel, smaller or no screen, lots of features taken out, etc etc). Which means there won't be a 25k car until Tesla solves FSD in which Wallstreet had very little confidence in. This will stunt Tesla's growth in their opinion.

Are we hypothetically talking $25k of car +$15k of software or $10k of car and $15k of software (at current FSD prices)

 

[unk45]

I had a land line up until a month before my Y was delivered. Cancelled the land line. I enjoy the music in the new car with my phone.

What is a 'land line'?