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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
larmor
Active Member
I for one would want to know where the next auto and battery factories are going up, because i don't think 20 million cars is possible with current factories, and 7 years is a very short amount of time.
SunCatcher
Member
I canceled our land line after 42 years of service. The only calls it got anymore were junk/spam/robocalls. Sometimes we just have to start over...
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I don't think Tesla is concerned to much with what Wall Street loves.
I liked when Elon said "Moody's irrelevant"
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I've had a "Made in the USA" sticker on the back of both our matching Model 3's for 4 years now. It's just big enough that people who pull up behind in stopped traffic can read it and see the colors. I think it's important because when most Americans see a Model 3 on the road, they tend to think it's a foreign car. I gather this from the number of people who ask where my car is made and even after I tell them it's made by Tesla, many of them either don't know where Tesla is located or think it's a car from Europe. The sticker helps let the people who feel the car is foreign relate to it better.
On the other hand, most Europeans probably know it's an American car and shouldn't be reminded of that anyway.
I just picked up our third matching Pearl White Model 3's and it's even more special than our other two, a very early production RWD LR, vin# in the 9200 range from March 2018 manufacture. I may have a problem, but I just love these early Model 3's that are 'supposed' to have such shoddy build quality. This is our third one without aesthetic build issues. In one spot, the chrome trim under the windows has about one millimeter of variation in elevation at the back of one of the rear doors, need a good eye to see it, other than that, all panel gaps and alignments still look beautiful after more than 69K miles.
The inside looks almost new after I cleaned up all the horsehair, dog hair, hay and mud, bubble gum and spilt sugary drinks in the rear air vents and that the previous owner didn't want to deal with. Even the piano black console is scratch free except for minimal micro scratches barely visible in the right lighting conditions. It almost looks new except for bit of polish the leather steering wheel tends to take on after so many miles. But here's what really speaks to the quality of these cars:
It still charges up to 303 miles of its original 310-mile range! That's what the previous owner told me it charged to the week before I bought it, and it matches perfectly when I extrapolate the percentage/remaining mileage at two different SOC levels. That's only a 2.25% loss over almost 5 years and more than 69K miles!
Super pleased as it came with FSD and lifetime premium connectivity. All three of our Model 3's look identical, all white, and all sporting Aero wheels. Now I just need one more "Made in the USA" sticker for the rear bumper!
Tesla no, not in the slightest. But it's not hard to guess what will move the stock. It has nothing to do with "Wallstreet just didn't understand".
I agree with Elon that Moody's is irrelevant to Tesla the business, but Moody's is unfortunately still relevant to TSLA the stock.
We still have a very low percentage of institutional investors in TSLA compared to all other companies of this size, and one huge reason is Moody's still having a junk rating on the stock. If they ever upgrade the rating it would enable a ton of big new buyers to finally be "allowed" to buy TSLA. Large ETFs and funds who would buy in very large volumes.
A 6 year old understand the implications. It's a 2nd grade math exercise to model out the potential cash flow of robotaxi and optimus. However Wallstreet can also model out the cash flow implication of a teleportation device or a flux capacitor. It doesn't mean anything until it is in hand, fully functioning as promised, and putting up number to the bottom line. Actually you don't even need it to make money, you just need it working as promised.
You announce science fiction products, you get science fiction reception until it becomes science facts.
You really think "they" have given up on that nice, juicy Friday close at $199.98?The 'V-shaped' recovery from the Dec drop has been remarkable (nicely sussed, Cathie). There are 2 technical resistance levels in steps around $230 and $290 on the way up to $300. Although after this week's Close, $200 may become support:
View attachment 904754
I anticipate the typical 'buy-the-rumor,sell-the-news' routine for Tesla Investor Day on March 1st (look at Google -7.6% today after their AI day 'Bard blunder'). But with good P&D numbers on ~Apr 3rd likely already in the bag, TSLA should continue it's march upward in Q2.
Not Ad vice.
The unfortunate truth of the way Tesla is run. Ridiculous goals are almost always achieved. Timelines are rarely attainable.
Wall Street values and puts a premium on predictability. It is not whether or not they believe him. It's that they can't rely on Tesla's projections at all.
It feels like Tesla has been getting better about this, but it's going to take some time for trust to build. The ongoing deadline creep with FSD v11 doesn't help.
First started out as a cable that connected two phones in the Trenches in France WWI 1914-18
I visited loved ones in Salt Lake City last year. I was rather blown away by the number of Teslas that I saw around me. Tried counting at one point but got too annoyed with interrupting myself to count another one. Anecdotal of course but Tesla has a presence, at least in SLC. I will add that once I left the urban environs there I saw very few, but did note two charging at the destination chargers in the massive inn outside Bryce Canyon. One was a nice looking X if I recall.
Wallstreet and retail investors are giving some good will to Tesla because of past performance with spaceX and Tesla execution, however they err on the side of caution because past performance does not guarantee future result.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Lol, so did you see where I wrote: "Although after this week's Close, $200 may become support"?
Hey,
Did you know Missy Cummings left NHTSA?
POLITICO Pro: Missy Cummings, target of Tesla ire, to depart NHTSA
Did you know Missy Cummings left NHTSA?
POLITICO Pro: Missy Cummings, target of Tesla ire, to depart NHTSA
Well the fact that they got the Semi out the door finally helps too. Getting the Cybertruck and being a bit more guarded about timelines should help.
(he says as if Musk can be "Guarded" about anything)
This is because stock analysts are still using the old way of valuing companies based on trailing earnings and a P/E multiple. The ideal way of approaching valuation should be to map out the expected future cash flows and apply the discount rate on them to calculate the present value of the cash flows. This way, the volatility of a particular quarter's earnings doesn't matter if the future cash flows stay the same.
Instead, to value growth stocks these analysts use some made up P/E multiple based on 'comps' and the sporadic EPS from the most recent quarter. If EPS from one quarter to the next varies wildly, they're confused. They can't apply the same P/E without making the price target jump up or down by 30%-50%, and they can't justify changing P/E because it's the same company in the same stage of growth and the same comps.
It's ok though. We own part of a real company that adds real value and generates real money. Some day, when the company achieves stable profitability, the analysts will be able to accurately value the company. But the company will be worth several trillion dollars and we'll have exited by then.
You should ask yourself if the reason behind low TSLA institutional investment is due to Insto investors not being interested or because retail investors are far more interested in Tesla than almost any other stock.
Additionally - no other company has reached this size while being so young in its growth curve - and that is understandable if it is on its way to becoming the largest company on earth. Insto investors usually put most of their funds in the well established companies that have long track records of generating stable profits.
The Insto investment ratio won't change dramatically because Moody's upgrades it, but it could do as Tesla matures as a company more generally.
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