Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[larmor]

My issue with investor day is that it seems that it will lack the granularity necessary to be of any use to investors already familiar with the company.

Maybe but like battery day, small incremental changes add up to significant improvements. Just like the five year plan to get battery price down by 50%+, investor day will lay the road map to 20 million cars. There will be no alien technology, magic, or fantasy what have you, it will likely be small changes which will result a large growth over the next decade.

 

[FastCompany]

Something I was thinking about recently with the low share-price and the heavy trading volume was the idea that a number of bad actors (HFs ?) could collude to acquire enough shares to control the TSLA shareholder votes.

Am I just being paranoid ?

 

[Eugene Ash]

Just a reminder, Zach just bought a 13,500 shares just a few weeks ago by exercising options.

Tesla CFO Zachary Kirkhorn exercises options and buys 13.5k TSLA shares

As per a recent Form-4 filing with the SEC, Tesla CFO Zachary Kirkhorn had exercised options to buy 13,500 TSLA shares.

www.teslarati.com

Very shrewd move on his part. Literally doubling is paycheck in 6 weeks. Pocketed an extra million dollars for that little insight right there. At the time we knew it was a bullish move, but don’t think many expected it would pay off so well or so quickly.

Thus the spaced out pre-planned share sales, as opposed to big dumps. Very measured!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Remember this one?​

​

U.S. probe finds no evidence of Tesla Autopilot use in 2021 Texas crash​

U.S. probe finds no evidence of Tesla Autopilot use in 2021 Texas crash

A U.S. safety board said Wednesday found no evidence a Tesla Model S was operating on Autopilot during an April 2021 fatal crash, saying the probable cause was the driver's speeding, alcohol impairment and failure to control the vehicle.

www.reuters.com

A U.S. safety board said Wednesday found no evidence a Tesla Model S was operating on Autopilot during an April 2021 fatal crash, saying the probable cause was the driver's speeding, alcohol impairment and failure to control the vehicle.

Shortly after the accident in Spring, Texas, local police said they believed the crash occurred with no one in the driver's seat, raising questions about Tesla's driver-assistance systems and prompting widespread media coverage.

View attachment 904896

I was looking for the word "Fire" in that article thinking for sure the WSJ was taking another backhanded shot at a "burning" Tesla.
But nothing... not a peep anywhere in the article. Subtle.

That's what Lucy sees anyway.

 

[2daMoon]

Pop goes the TSLA!!!

I changed my sig early this morning... just sayin'

 

[Mengy]

I think we can thank our old friend for calling the bottom.

Oh come on, this guy has to be trolling the world right?


How can anyone be THAT stupid?!?!??!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Hmm, Lucid might be in lots of trouble. Recent drone fly over increased the amount of cars parked in logistic lot to now over 2k+. This is a quarter worth of cars sitting on the lot with very minimal activities from car carriers. They did say on the Q4 call they have logistical issues, but we are talking about moving dozens of cars a day...how much logistical issues can you possibility have?

Cancellations?

 

[Captkerosene]

Something I was thinking about recently with the low share-price and the heavy trading volume was the idea that a number of bad actors (HFs ?) could collude to acquire enough shares to control the TSLA shareholder votes.

Am I just being paranoid ?

Yes, you don't acquire shares by selling them.

 

[AndrewZ]

I wouldn't be shocked to see more discounts on the S and X lineup this year as well, especially the X where inventory does not appear to have been materially reduced by the price cuts to date. Either they'll be moved through discounts or the inventory will just be sat on because it's small potatoes compared to the 3/Y lineup.

 

[Skryll]

Yes, you don't acquire shares by selling them.

Thats why they dont. They just pretend and also there are other options

 

[SOULPEDL]

I wouldn't be shocked to see more discounts on the S and X lineup this year as well, especially the X where inventory does not appear to have been materially reduced by the price cuts to date. Either they'll be moved through discounts or the inventory will just be sat on because it's small potatoes compared to the 3/Y lineup.

What if they retired the Model X to convert and divert production.
CyberTruck for one reason. This depends on how many wanted an X for the tow capacity or tax write-offs.

 

[Yuha]

Reality setting in around HW3 not being upgraded and those vehicles never achieving anything resembling Robotaxi functionality will generate more anger than it already has. I think Tesla's butt is pretty covered there, but the public perception has been different in many cases and it will likely make people more upset.

I always expected further hardware and software iterations but assumed upgrades would be done regardless of how onerous. At this point, I consider HW3 all but done and dusted.

Typically, when a new kind of computational capability like FSD is first achieved, the first version is highly inefficient and requires lots of computational resources, and later optimizations can dramatically reduce the needed resources. This means that even if it takes HW4 to achieve FSD for the first time, there's a chance that Tesla will later get it working on HW3 too.
That's probably why Elon thinks that upgrading HW3 won't be necessary.

 

[StealthP3D]

Nice post, but @mongo posted that earlier in a single sentence.

Just sayin' ;-)

Obviously, there are a lot of slow learners here as evidenced by some people still not understanding how market cap works. It looks like you are a quick study, so feel free to put my overly wordy posts on permanent ignore. Because I can promise that I won't be abbreviating my posts simply because you and a few others have superior intelligence. I didn't write that post for people as smart as you. Obviously.

Just sayin' ;-)

 

[wipster]

Obviously, there are a lot of slow learners here as evidenced by some people still not understanding how market cap works. It looks like you are a quick study, so feel free to put my overly wordy posts on permanent ignore. Because I can promise that I won't be abbreviating my posts simply because you and a few others have superior intelligence. I didn't write that post for people as smart as you. Obviously.

Just sayin' ;-)

No worries my friend! Hope the weather's good in Maple Falls... LOL!

 

[AndrewZ]

What if they retired the Model X to convert and divert production.
CyberTruck for one reason. This depends on how many wanted an X for the tow capacity or tax write-offs.

That definitely sounds plausible too, good call

Typically, when a new kind of computational capability like FSD is first achieved, the first version is highly inefficient and requires lots of computational resources, and later optimizations can dramatically reduce the needed resources. This means that even if it takes HW4 to achieve FSD for the first time, there's a chance that Tesla will later get it working on HW3 too.
That's probably why Elon thinks that upgrading HW3 won't be necessary.

HW4 will clearly have new hardware and/or hardware in different locations. We're talking cameras in new spots, maybe HD radar, who knows what else, and that's why HW3 will not be upgraded.

In my opinion, HW3 will never mitigate sufficient risk to allow assumption of the DDT liability by Tesla in those vehicles and that is what unlocks Robotaxi functionality along with all the potential benefits. FSD will remain a Level 2 ADAS on HW3 and this was the plan all along, the public perception might be a different story.

 

[Nocturnal]

What if they retired the Model X to convert and divert production.
CyberTruck for one reason. This depends on how many wanted an X for the tow capacity or tax write-offs.

I ordered an X in December for that very reason. Wound up cancelling for other reasons, but I'm sure the 179 loophole is a huge part of X sales.

CT will get me that deduction this year, hopefully. (although only 80% now).

 

[SOULPEDL]

Typically, when a new kind of computational capability like FSD is first achieved, the first version is highly inefficient and requires lots of computational resources, and later optimizations can dramatically reduce the needed resources. This means that even if it takes HW4 to achieve FSD for the first time, there's a chance that Tesla will later get it working on HW3 too.
That's probably why Elon thinks that upgrading HW3 won't be necessary.

Ditto. Plus, it's a safety numbers game that will dictate the value of each HW version to eternity. Safety data on these systems will clarify fair market value accordingly. The cheaper rides will get you there, but might stop for a bit along the way, or a bit slower and might not avoid a crazy car out there. So riskier, but still way safer than a human. Upgrade if you really need it like a road warrior.

(Edit: Actually, they must make HW3 work FSD. They need the data right? It was why our Model 3 was upgraded for free, so why would that reason change. Must be because HW3 is sufficient in the near future, else the mission changed.)

 

[bkp_duke]

Hmm, Lucid might be in lots of trouble. Recent drone fly over increased the amount of cars parked in logistic lot to now over 2k+. This is a quarter worth of cars sitting on the lot with very minimal activities from car carriers. They did say on the Q4 call they have logistical issues, but we are talking about moving dozens of cars a day...how much logistical issues can you possibility have?

Contemplating buying some longer-term puts on this company. NOT ADVICE

Why? In addition to the stale inventory, I'm seeing PALM TREES (brand new BIG ones) being installed outside of the parking lot in that video. Not what you should be focusing cash on during a downturn and your major competitor eating your lunch with price cuts.

 

[FastCompany]

Yes, you don't acquire shares by selling them.

I'm confused by your response. Did Vanguard have a larger TSLA position prior to this filing ? Blackrock and Vanguard now control almost 13% between them.

 

[kclifton]

Contemplating buying some longer-term puts on this company. NOT ADVICE

Why? In addition to the stale inventory, I'm seeing PALM TREES (brand new BIG ones) being installed outside of the parking lot in that video. Not what you should be focusing cash on during a downturn and your major competitor eating your lunch with price cuts.

I know someone with an order for one based in LA and they haven't been contacted about taking delivery. Have had the order for 1+ year at this point.

Does seem odd to have all that inventory and not reaching out to others on the list.