Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[advocate8]

He had an excellent response to the "danger" of automated driving technology.

Basically said "hey, guys, remember you’re supposed to keep your hands on the wheel.” and “huge safety benefits ahead, but it’s gonna be awhile."
Sounds about right.

 

[Singuy]

And it should be noted that the NHTSA, which requested the "recall", is an agency within Buttigieg's Tranportation Department.

Did NHTSA requested the recall? The note said it's voluntary by Tesla.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Hey that is me, but I mostly want the car to drive me around.

I think it is true that a regulator will approve HW 4..0 for RoboTaxis well before HW 3.0.

If HW 4,0 isn't approved, the debate is academic.

If HW 4,0 is approved there are 3 scenarios:-

1. HW 3.0 is eventually approved with no upgrades.
2. HW 3,0 is approved, but only after some hardware upgrades.
3. HW 3.0 is never approved.

I rank these in the following order post probable 2., followed by 1. with 3. being unlikely.

The reason 3. is unlikely is because in this scenario Tesla is going all in of HW 3.0 upgrades to make it work.

What are the upgrades that could be done?

1. I think the new high definition radar could be input into HW3 where the old radar used to go, Even if there is pre-processing hardware that cleans the image up, and presents it at the right density.

2. I think an addition front facing camera could be added near the rear facing repeater camera on both the left an right side and specialist hardware could stitch the 2 cameras into a combined left / right side wide view. There is a blind spot in the wide view, but that is covered by the b-pillar cameras.

3. The camera that are most often impacted by glare are front facing and b-pillar, these new front facing cameras provide some redundancy in the case of front cameras being affected. But there may be some upgrade to the b-pillar camera needed to make it more glare resistant?

Tesla might have other options, a limited production run of a board to upgrade HW 3.0 is possible.

Free FSD on the purchase of a new Tesla for existing HW 3.0 FSD owners is possible, but IMO unlikely to be needed.

There are good reasons why Tesla doesn't want to talk about upgrading HW 3.0 now, Mostly because they are hoping no upgrades are needed. But also because of they do need to do upgrades they need to optimise that process for minimum cost, and fastest possible install, and they need to test it out well before deploying.

Not much point in seriously considering HW 3.0 upgrades until HW 4.0 has regulatory approval. But a lot of merit in testing, evaluating and optimising various upgrade options.

Exactly.

It can't see cross traffic well.

Elon recently post that the next release should be able to handle Chucks ULT? Eyesight must be improving then. I'm Famazed! So why keep trying if there's no hope?

No doubt a Giga-challenge, so why would any fool hang on to this idea?

Choose only one:

• Drunk Driver
• Grandma
• 15 yr old
• HW3

 

[Curt Renz]

Did NHTSA requested the recall? The note said it's voluntary by Tesla.

Firmly "suggested" may have been a better description?

 

[Singuy]

Firmly "suggested" may have been a better description?

I feel like any voluntary recall are not problems discovered by the organization but problems detected by the car company. So today's recall was all Tesla voluntarily submitting the form/area of problem/remedy. Which makes it odd that Musk is calling out that this shouldn't be a recall, when it's his people who filled out the recall form to begin with.

 

[MP3Mike]

Did NHTSA requested the recall? The note said it's voluntary by Tesla.

Yes:

I feel like any voluntary recall are not problems discovered by the organization but problems detected by the car company. So today's recall was all Tesla voluntarily submitting the form/area of problem/remedy. Which makes it odd that Musk is calling out that this shouldn't be a recall, when it's his people who filled out the recall form to begin with.

Tesla essentially says we didn't want to, but we didn't want to fight NHTSA and have them force a recall on us. (Just like they did with China and the suspension links.)

The same with Tesla and NHTSA on the Model S/X eMMC recall. Tesla made a voluntary recall, under the threat that NHTSA would otherwise force it.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

This is the easiest path for everyone IMO. Give people the credit they paid in on a new model. Or a complementary FSD license on a new vehicle.

Let's say this was the option do you sell something less costly to existing customers that have HW3 or is HW4 more valuable as far as FSD pricing?

I like this idea but let's be real. This is not Tesla's MO.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Serious question. DO THEY NEVER LEARN?

Apparently not. Here's a template for you to roll your own meme:

 

[willow_hiller]

If they managed to get a fix that fast to this never ending wrong lane intersection thing why wouldn’t they just have done it.

Tesla doesn't have to solve all the issues with FSD Beta, they just have to handle the situations in a safer manner.

For most of the issues, this just means slightly higher safety tolerances, like stopping at more yellow lights. For the lane selection issue, the full recall document states that the problem isn't selecting the wrong lane, it's trying to merge back into the main lane from a turn lane. So that could be handled in a safer manner by making the wrong turn and recalculating the route after. Or worst case scenario, it could behave like U-turns do now and ask the driver to manually merge back into traffic from the turn lane.

 

[jerry33]

There is no speed limit above 75 MPH in the US…

There certainly is. 85 mph on some highways in Texas for one.

 

[jerry33]

Yes, and ironically, the TX HP enforces that pretty close to that limit. You go 90, they will pull you over.

I suspect a lot of cars that drive 85 aren't really all that safe at 65.

 

[GhostSkater]

Continuing from the Supercharger talk from a few days ago, pretty nice explanation how a V3 site works, how the cabinets are all interconnected and so on

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Tesla doesn't have to solve all the issues with FSD Beta, they just have to handle the situations in a safer manner.

For most of the issues, this just means slightly higher safety tolerances, like stopping at more yellow lights. For the lane selection issue, the full recall document states that the problem isn't selecting the wrong lane, it's trying to merge back into the main lane from a turn lane. So that could be handled in a safer manner by making the wrong turn and recalculating the route after. Or worst case scenario, it could behave like U-turns do now and ask the driver to manually merge back into traffic from the turn lane.

Makes sense. For what it’s worth our car has done that once. Eg. Realize it’s in the wrong lane, make the turn and recalculate. Normally I just take over and it never becomes an issue, but wife wanted to see what it would do and it made the turn. Having said that it has also got stuck in never never land trying to decide what to do. Again. Never a danger as I just took over.

Really I don’t find anything dangerous as I just monitor and intervene as necessary. But I honestly think level 4 autonomy is a decade away.

Who knows. Still enjoy it. I knew what I was buying.

Thanks for the reply.

 

[heltok]

If HW 4,0 is approved there are 3 scenarios:-

1. HW 3.0 is eventually approved with no upgrades.
2. HW 3,0 is approved, but only after some hardware upgrades.
3. HW 3.0 is never approved.

1 or 3 is so much more likely than 2.

I get it, we are dissappointed that FSD is taking longer than we thought and I am not happy about the sonar parking sensor decision(I don't know the full story but it but it seems like a bad decision in hindsight). But let's not forget, we have cars out on the street fully self driving in between the interventions. And there is not any major scenario we know about where we see hardware being the limiting factor, not Chuck style left turns, not complex intersections, not highway driving, not fog, not snow etc.

What's missing is better software, fewer bugs, more data, more capable neural networks. Not higher resolution on the cameras, not cameras in a different angle, not more redundancy...


Regarding HW4 being introduced dissappointing HW3 customers. Imo stop complaining. You are trying to make Tesla fragile instead of antifragile. With antifragility comes some chaos and people being upset, but the alternative is stagnation and eventual death of the company. Better to disrupt yourself than having the competition disrupt you.

 

[wipster]

Yes, and ironically, the TX HP enforces that pretty close to that limit. You go 90, they will pull you over.

I think the speed limit on Illinois freeway near Chicago is ~70, but if you drive less than 90 you'll get run over... kind of shocked the heck out of this Eastern Washington boy!

 

[Singuy]

So, I kind of get the impression this recall OTA update is ready to go. If they managed to get a fix that fast to this never ending wrong lane intersection thing why wouldn’t they just have done it. Or is there some kind of time limit or else sceenario here?

Weird.

If they fix the wrong lane selection thing, they fixed like 90% of FSD beta. I believe they are only fixing the car not turning in a turning lane at an intersection it seems?(plus the speed limit stuff)

 

[Rammstein]

You should have gotten that in writing.

Haha I guess. Definitely have it in on camera and audio. It was the impression I was given from Elon. I don’t think it’s unreasonable for me to think that my car would be capable of been part of a robotaxi network.

Oh well as long as TSLA does well I’m be happy anyways.

 

[MartinAustin]

HW4 complainers - HW4 exists because of inexorable semiconductor process improvements. Those happen every year. If you keep using the process tech from the initial year you started using your chip, you're leaving efficiency on the table and your competitors will leapfrog you. HW3 was revealed at the Autopilot Day in ~March 2019. It was designed in 2018 (Jim Keller and all that). That's 5 years ago! It is inevitable that Tesla would move to a new process tech, and I think they said so at the time.

One of the goals of a new process tech is to do the same job as the last chip, but for less power, generate less waste heat, and take up less room in the circuit board. HW4 does that, but they have added some new capability. Nobody should be saying HW3 can't do the job.

In 4-5yrs time there will be HW5. After that... HW6. etc. etc. Each time, the chips will use less power, occupy smaller space, generate less heat under the dash, and/or have more capability if Tesla decides to add that. Again... do not complain that HW3 has been usurped or is now proven to be unable to do the original job. That is nonsense. Tesla has revised the CPU in the MCU several times now. Can owners of the original 2012 MCU still run Navigation? Of course!

Having HW4 now makes it more believable that Cybertruck is going into production this year. It makes me happy as a future CT owner that they are locking another piece of the CT puzzle into solid production hardware. It's true to say that the HW4 unit will have had a little in-the-field testing on 4 or 5 other platforms before CT starts using it. Nice!

 

[JRP3]

Eventually, Tesla will be a 100% vegan company

I don't think Elon would agree with that, I don't think he's vegan or even trying to be.

 

[phoggy123]

1 or 3 is so much more likely than 2.

I get it, we are dissappointed that FSD is taking longer than we thought and I am not happy about the sonar parking sensor decision(I don't know the full story but it but it seems like a bad decision in hindsight). But let's not forget, we have cars out on the street fully self driving in between the interventions. And there is not any major scenario we know about where we see hardware being the limiting factor, not Chuck style left turns, not complex intersections, not highway driving, not fog, not snow etc.

What's missing is better software, fewer bugs, more data, more capable neural networks. Not higher resolution on the cameras, not cameras in a different angle, not more redundancy...


Regarding HW4 being introduced dissappointing HW3 customers. Imo stop complaining. You are trying to make Tesla fragile instead of antifragile. With antifragility comes some chaos and people being upset, but the alternative is stagnation and eventual death of the company. Better to disrupt yourself than having the competition disrupt you.

WTF does your last paragraph even mean? We arent asking them to stop anything, but they took anywhere from 4-15K from people for a feature that isn't fully baked. They already have a history of replacing hardware (HW2.5 to HW3) to implement these features. It may very well make everyone happy eventually but as of right now Tesla is implying the money people paid for a software they can't even recognize full revenue yet is going to be capped based on new hardware they are releasing (3X better than 10X from Elon)...I still fully expect Tesla to deploy a robotaxi in less than 24 months...which will evidently be based off HW4. As a shareholder...I couldn't be more excited, but as someone who paid them 10K for a product that now has questions to its end state...call me worried.

Nobody here is even suggesting Tesla stop innovating or slow down, actually quite far from it.