Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fred42]

This is why Tesla is building it's own Lithium refinery in Corpus Christi, folks:

Kelvin Yang on Twitter: "CATL offers OEMs lithium carbonate at less than half of market price (¥200k/ton) if car makers commit 80% of battery procurement from CATL." / Twitter​

​

Kelvin Yang on Twitter: "Lithium carbonate price is dropping. The unknowns are how much and how fast. CATL is taking away the uncertainty from OEMs to secure more orders. Competition from smaller battery makers is rising" / Twitter​

I wonder where CATL will source the lithium carbonate for their new Ford LFP bty plant in Michigan. There are obvious IRA materials sourcing issues, and perhaps Sherman Anti-trust issues if that supply is provided at below market price, but sourced from CATL.

Ford will own and operate their LFP plant in MI and pay CATL for licensing and technical support. It's not a joint venture. Are you sure CATL will source the lithium carbonate?

 

[Baumisch]

At the original Semi reveal, like ~2 yrs ago, Elon stated they could apply FSD to the Semi. He made it sound quite simply to put the new parameters of the vehicle and it will work.

Clearly the camera locations on the semi are different from the Model 3 (at the time).

And ... we're forgetting Optimus - they were super quick utilizing existing HW and SW stack for the robot. So I hope we're right in Tesla being able to onboard new HW releases and cam/radar combos quite efficiently.

 

[JRP3]

View attachment 908240
Someone seems to have hacked the Tesla Youtube Channel to scam people into Bitcoin and Eth payments


This is super weird - the Stream is the Autonomy Day from last year with this box on the page:
View attachment 908241

Just giving you a warning - I was in a boring customer call browsing youtube - saw the video from Tesla channel with BMW and was already excusing myself to leave the meeting ... only then I realized it's a scam

"teslalet" is not the Tesla channel.

 

[ThisStockGood]

View attachment 908240
Someone seems to have hacked the Tesla Youtube Channel to scam people into Bitcoin and Eth payments


This is super weird - the Stream is the Autonomy Day from last year with this box on the page:
View attachment 908241

Just giving you a warning - I was in a boring customer call browsing youtube - saw the video from Tesla channel with BMW and was already excusing myself to leave the meeting ... only then I realized it's a scam

Check the channel name... it's not the official Tesla account..

 

[TrendTrader007]

Trolls! Yikes!
Middle aged erstwhile wannabe HS bullies with loser track records probably
Perfect venue: Twitter, not TMC

 

[SOULPEDL]

This is CyberTruck uplifting news, and I live right near Gilbert.
If this was no challenge for autistic kids, then Tesla should be able to do it too!

Drivable Tesla Cybertruck model built by PS Academy Arizona students living with autism in just four weeks

The model Tesla Cybertruck has two 12-volt engines, a lithium-ion battery, a rack, and pinion steering and a custom-built body.

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[JRP3]

At the original Semi reveal, like ~2 yrs ago, Elon stated they could apply FSD to the Semi. He made it sound quite simply to put the new parameters of the vehicle and it will work.

Elon has made many things sound simple, especially regarding FSD, and clearly they weren't. Even he has admitted to being overly optimistic.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Elon has made many things sound simple, especially regarding FSD, and clearly they weren't. Even he has admitted to being overly optimistic.

I'm just reporting what he said (with given memory).

I do the same thing - I say things are doable when I know of a general path to get there that is logical and reasonable. Then the problems come up and it always always takes another 2-weeks.

Optimus (optimistic) "We strapped in the brains and the thing just started walking and waving at us. That was so easy!" /s

 

[StealthP3D]

This is why Tesla is building it's own Lithium refinery in Corpus Christi, folks:

Kelvin Yang on Twitter: "CATL offers OEMs lithium carbonate at less than half of market price (¥200k/ton) if car makers commit 80% of battery procurement from CATL." / Twitter​

​

Kelvin Yang on Twitter: "Lithium carbonate price is dropping. The unknowns are how much and how fast. CATL is taking away the uncertainty from OEMs to secure more orders. Competition from smaller battery makers is rising" / Twitter​

I wonder where CATL will source the lithium carbonate for their new Ford LFP bty plant in Michigan. There are obvious IRA materials sourcing issues, and perhaps Sherman Anti-trust issues if that supply is provided at below market price, but sourced from CATL.

It looks to me like the IRA rules regarding the domestic sourcing of battery minerals is already creating a two-tier pricing situation for battery minerals. Those sourced within the domestic guidelines will be worth considerably more than those from China and elsewhere. I doubt anti-trust issues are involved.

Markets always get screwy when governments create synthetic reasons to source from one source over another.

 

[EldestOyster]

Someone seems to have hacked the Tesla Youtube Channel to scam people into Bitcoin and Eth payments

This is super weird - the Stream is the Autonomy Day from last year with this box on the page:

For what it's worth, I encountered a similar spoofing attempt about a month ago. I reported it. And I even got an email back from the algorithm thanking me for doing so. I just looked at the message again and I noticed it said it had removed the video (not the account). But I'm guessing that the algorithm eventually notices the 100% complaint rate and eventually takes care of that, too.

 

[DarthPierce]

Model 3 Owner's Manual | Tesla

Learn about normal operating sounds and your Tesla.

www.tesla.com

Are you linking this because of the (humorous) reference to Ludicrous mode?

 

[replicant]

Are you linking this because of the (humorous) reference to Ludicrous mode?

Yes, but I shouldn't have (OT post deleted). Market's still open, we must be focus on the ticker for now

 

[Ogre]

I can't piece together how this NHTSA recall fits in with what I see developing.

Elon handles people and situations really bad sometimes. Too impulsively. But he's a fast learner and willing to pivot (possibly his most valuable quality). A couple months ago when the Elon/Apple relationship was circling the drain (I think) Tim Cook reached out to Elon and they were able to get on the same page and fix the relationship. I think Elon took that playbook to the Biden administration and they got their kumbaya moment over the charging network.

The recall doesn't fit with that. If it was anyone else besides Elon, I would think it was a bargaining chip but I don't think Elon will compromise in that way. Never the less, the timing of these patty cake requests/demands seems too coincidental. They could have issued this recall months ago. Why now?

A lot of people personify the administration and think it acts with a single will. While there is a lot of towing the line, nobody passes out a memo saying “Hey everyone, lets be chill with Tesla now”. Individuals in the administration act independently, sometimes significantly so. Unless/ until they cross a line and need to be removed, they can move counter to the main administration view for quite some time.

Tesla/ Musk have made some temporary friends, but there are still plenty of people in the administration who hate them with a burning passion.

 

[Curt Renz]

This a monthly options expiration day. My survey of TSLA options expiring today suggests that a share price closing of $200 would be the most profitable for big option writers capable of nudging the share price.

 

[SOULPEDL]

This a monthly options expiration day. My survey of TSLA options expiring today suggests that a share price closing of $200 would be the most profitable for big option writers capable of nudging the share price.

No kidding, look at the 200 volume.

 

[superblast]

View attachment 908240
Someone seems to have hacked the Tesla Youtube Channel to scam people into Bitcoin and Eth payments


This is super weird - the Stream is the Autonomy Day from last year with this box on the page:
View attachment 908241

Just giving you a warning - I was in a boring customer call browsing youtube - saw the video from Tesla channel with BMW and was already excusing myself to leave the meeting ... only then I realized it's a scam

UPDATE: thx replicant - it's indeed not the Tesla channel, but brilliant to have Tesla Videos on Channel frontpage

This video explains the situation well:

 

[insaneoctane]

Don't be so hard on yourself! You picked the intraday high to within 4 minutes and just a few pennies:

View attachment 907981

What you did miss is that MMs are boss, and there's a huge number of IMO Calls at $200. They aren't gonna hold the bag; that's for their customers.

#ThursdayAsUsual

Feels like groundhog day every Friday. Wish someone at SEC cared.

 

[replicant]

A lot of people personify the administration and think it acts with a single will. While there is a lot of towing the line, nobody passes out a memo saying “Hey everyone, lets be chill with Tesla now”. Individuals in the administration act independently, sometimes significantly so. Unless/ until they cross a line and need to be removed, they can move counter to the main administration view for quite some time.

Tesla/ Musk have made some temporary friends, but there are still plenty of people in the administration who hate them with a burning passion.

As an investor, I prefer an administration that pushes the IRA to support EVs but says nothing of Tesla/Musk, than one that praises Elon without actually supporting EVs (a fortiori, Tesla).

Not acknowledging Tesla might even help us: it reinforces its public image as the underdog while the company is actually finishing the incumbents or letting them do a slow seppuku. Who, among the next Tesla's customers, still ignore its superiority? The whole "you led Mary!" thing is a not-so-private joke now. The company shouldn't care (yet) about those who know nothing about EV because millions of buyers are ready and just wait for a cheaper version.

That being said, ignoring and bad-mouthing Tesla, or congratulating GM for falsely leading the transition, is morally wrong and undermines the already low trust in government. But that's another issue and I don't know a viable candidate that could bring together both sides on this (let's not dwell on Elon's alleged centrism).

 

[cliff harris]

On the topic of whether or not HW4 and HW3 can integrate, heres my perspective. I've been coding for 40 years, C++ for 30+ years.

If Tesla have any idea how to do software engineering (and clearly they do), then there is likely a very definite modular break between the neural net code that does object recognition and image-based distance approximation (basically working out what is where), and the NN for deciding what actions to take, which lane to be in, what speed to set, where to face the vehicle etc...

In other words, some code creates a 'world view' likely saying 'object X,Y and Z are at these positions, with this percentage of confidence', and then the decision making code decides how to handle the vehcile given this data.

The second set (decision and driving) can be totally independent of how the first set of data is determined. In fact we KNOW this is how tesla do it, because they used to be pure NN for object recognition and pure C++ for decisions. Now its a bit of NN in the decision code.

I assume HW3 will be able to say 'objects X,Y,Z at these positions, 90% confidence'. HW4 will say 'X,Y,Z with 98% confidence'. As far as the decision code is concerned, it doesn't even have to know if it has HW3 or 4 installed. They MUST work this way, because the number of cameras may decrease in real time due to hardware failure, or blindness/obfuscation of a camera by sunlight or dirt/dust.

So I dont think there is much concern that HW3 will not be able to use a lot of HW4 code. I dont see this as an issue at all. What IS an issue is whether or not the confidence level from HW3 sensors is sufficient to enable hands-free FSD. Thats the only worry, from an investor POV.

In general I think its worth thinking about HW4 and HW3 more as 'sensor suite 3' and 4, as thats likely the biggest real difference.
IANAL.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Feels like groundhog day every Friday. Wish someone at SEC cared.

The SEC does care!! Just not for normal investors. They are out to protect and enrich the Market Makers, these are the brokerage houses, hedge funds the deep Wall Street Types. They could give a rats ass about what is best for the world, humanity, a country or individuals!!!

Edit: They do also care about themselves.