Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

TSLAQ is pouring it on trying to keep us below 200, but the fight is on right now. All the macros down today and we’re holding strong… probably be pushing forward in spite of the macros save Max Pain (Side note… I had a statistics teacher named Max Paine). Today’s little counter-FUD “Leak”: Tesla factory opening in Mexico. Is this a genuine leak or is Tesla letting slip a second factory location immediately prior to their investor call?

Is this a genuine leak from Mexico side or is Tesla really announcing this on the lead up to their Investor Day. All this news popping out prior to the call making me jazzed for what will be on the call.


PS: Figured out why it’s called Q.

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PPS No complaints about Today’s crayon art. I scratched my original bad art idea

Spoiler: Gandolf versus The BalroQ

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It was leaked by Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard.

 

[Ogre]

It was leaked by Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard.

Yeah, I get a little cynical about Tesla “leaks”. Often it seems like they are planned by Tesla. I just overthink things.

 

[growler23]

On the topic of whether or not HW4 and HW3 can integrate, heres my perspective. I've been coding for 40 years, C++ for 30+ years.

If Tesla have any idea how to do software engineering (and clearly they do), then there is likely a very definite modular break between the neural net code that does object recognition and image-based distance approximation (basically working out what is where), and the NN for deciding what actions to take, which lane to be in, what speed to set, where to face the vehicle etc...

In other words, some code creates a 'world view' likely saying 'object X,Y and Z are at these positions, with this percentage of confidence', and then the decision making code decides how to handle the vehcile given this data.

The second set (decision and driving) can be totally independent of how the first set of data is determined. In fact we KNOW this is how tesla do it, because they used to be pure NN for object recognition and pure C++ for decisions. Now its a bit of NN in the decision code.

I assume HW3 will be able to say 'objects X,Y,Z at these positions, 90% confidence'. HW4 will say 'X,Y,Z with 98% confidence'. As far as the decision code is concerned, it doesn't even have to know if it has HW3 or 4 installed. They MUST work this way, because the number of cameras may decrease in real time due to hardware failure, or blindness/obfuscation of a camera by sunlight or dirt/dust.

So I dont think there is much concern that HW3 will not be able to use a lot of HW4 code. I dont see this as an issue at all. What IS an issue is whether or not the confidence level from HW3 sensors is sufficient to enable hands-free FSD. Thats the only worry, from an investor POV.

In general I think its worth thinking about HW4 and HW3 more as 'sensor suite 3' and 4, as thats likely the biggest real difference.
IANAL.

Agree, not only on general principles but also on what the actual engineers working on FSD told us.
Everyone remember how they are building an "occupancy network" to let the car understand its surroundings? That is, a 3-dimensional set of voxels around the car, with an understanding of what is in each one?
I remember watching a fascinating video showing just that, made by the Tesla engineers.
Adding more / better cameras just lets you fill that voxel space faster / better / with smaller voxels (a good thing).
It appeared at that time that there are definite software breaks / interfaces where code (and hopefully training) could be thoroughly reused across hardware or software changes to layers on either side of those interfaces.
It sure appears to me that what is holding FSD back the most is choosing what lane to be in going through an intersection. And that is logic that really seems largely independent of your camera resolution. That mapping logic is where a lot of the next progress will be, IMHO. More cameras and more processing may help around the edges, yay HW4, but the real beast they need to slay next is largely unrelated to that.
Just my $0.02 as a software engineer who watched the Tesla videos about FSD.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Reuters through US News - 11:53 am EST
Tesla to Expand Operations to Mexico, Official Says

love Mexico. especially Cabo. stayed at Hotel Viceroy one January and then that hotel turns out to be site where they shot lot of last season of Westworld.
clearly, TSLA wants to go higher. refuses, stubbornly, to stay sub-200
shorts can taste $183, they are trying so hard, they can taste it
alas! many a slip between cup and the lip

i was preparing for a very gloomy long weekend with TSLA closing below $200 but now that seems unlikely
well, we still got 1 hr 40 minutes and never underestimate TSLA short sellers
they will try to close it below $200
if they fail, then game over- good luck keeping TSLA from hitting $300 in short order

 

[TrendTrader007]

My ceiling is a floor:

one man's ceiling is another man's floor

 

[new_sneakers]

Me being optimistic: Not everyone hates Tesla?

The V11.3 branch has the improvements that are needed to, hopefully, correct the issues. It wasn't ready yet. NHTSA delayed pushing the issue until Tesla could resolve it. (Plus, free advertising)

This theory reminds me of 2019, when when then NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine publicly chided SpaceX for delays with Crew Dragon, then shortly after, Jim and Elon held a press conference to discuss resolution of the issues.

My impression at the time was that it was important to show Boeing and elements of NASA and government that SpaceX wasn’t getting a free ride.

 

[Ocelot]

At the original Semi reveal, like ~2 yrs ago, Elon stated they could apply FSD to the Semi. He made it sound quite simply to put the new parameters of the vehicle and it will work.

Clearly the camera locations on the semi are different from the Model 3 (at the time).

Mmh, not sure if this a good example of our bias, or you need some coenzyme q10.

 

[CHGolferJim]

one man's ceiling is another man's floor

The ceiling is the roof, dude.

3 years ago today, MJ gave us 'The ceiling is the roof' - ESPN Video

On March 4, 2017, in front of a packed house at the Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, Michael Jordan tells the UNC football team, "The ceiling is the roof."

www.espn.com

 

[Prunesquallor]

This theory reminds me of 2019, when when then NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine publicly chided SpaceX for delays with Crew Dragon, then shortly after, Jim and Elon held a press conference to discuss resolution of the issues.

My impression at the time was that it was important to show Boeing and elements of NASA and government that SpaceX wasn’t getting a free ride.

It was stressful for NASA back then. Starliner wasn't on schedule (edit: still isn't), the Russians were jacking up prices of Soyuz rides, and all Elon could talk about was Starship. Now, getting in a Twitter spat with Elon is never a good idea, but I think the point was made.

 

[Ogre]

Starting to look like Tesla is not going to behave itself and stay below 200 to make the MM happy today. Max Pain be damned?

 

[DutchDriver]

Going Green

 

[EVMeister]

This a monthly options expiration day. My survey of TSLA options expiring today suggests that a share price closing of $200 would be the most profitable for big option writers capable of nudging the share price.

Not capable enough.

 

[Tim S]

Some years ago in the Texas legislature, Elon said he would sign a check to Little League. Actually, dealership sponsorship of local sports teams is a form of advertising rather than charity. The dealership's name is on the uniforms. It's hoped that the players and parents will eventually become customers.

Bad news, bears...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Guess the MM's left the interns in charge and left early for the long weekend.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Mmh, not sure if this a good example of our bias, or you need some coenzyme q10.

My bad, it was not mentioned in that video. Sorry.
I'm listening to the FSD day video. Maybe it was there I heard it if you'd like to take a look?
Just kidding... Have a great day!

 

[Artful Dodger]

It looks to me like the IRA rules regarding the domestic sourcing of battery minerals is already creating a two-tier pricing situation for battery minerals. Those sourced within the domestic guidelines will be worth considerably more than those from China and elsewhere. I doubt anti-trust issues are involved.

The Market at least seems to think this could be a problem for at least one other lithium provider:

#	Company	Symbol	Weight	Price	Chg	% Chg
231	Albemarle Corporation	ALB	0.097687	258.01	-27.61	(-9.67%)

 

[totoro722]

TrendTrader007 said:
one man's ceiling is another man's floor

I got the Paul Simon reference. I guess you have to be pretty old to know that one!

 

[wipster]

The Market at least seems to think this could be a problem for at least one other lithium provider:

#	Company	Symbol	Weight	Price	Chg	% Chg
231	Albemarle Corporation	ALB	0.097687	258.01	-27.61	(-9.67%)

All of the lithium stocks I watch went down hard today... and I'm invested in about half of them!

 

[SmokyPeat]

All of the lithium stocks I watch went down hard today... and I'm invested in about half of them!

Wow, I lucked out by selling my smallish Piedmont Lithium (PLL) position yesterday afternoon to buy more TSLL. It feels good after nearly every trade I made last year was a disaster.

 

[geometro]

Was at a SC today... the side cameras on the Model S were much, much larger than on the Model X and Model Y that were also on the floor. Sorry, didn't take a pic.