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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Not relevant to anything for over a decade. Kindly move on to something relevant or at least a teeny tiny bit more interesting; like do you match your underwear and socks?
It must somehow be back in the MSM as an anti Musk talking point: had a family supper last Friday and the subject of “Elon wasn’t the founder of Tesla“ just popped out of nowhere from family member(s) who’s exposure to Tesla is from MSM…that first slavo was followed by, “Is (my TM3) part of the self driving recall?”…

Sigh.
 
I agree which is why I posed both those questions

- Q1. Can the cell suppliers (and their mineral suppliers) continue to meet the total annual increases that the historical evidence suggests will continue to be met ?
- Q2. Can Tesla continue to capture at least a 20% market share of that cell supply for vehicle use ?


If those questions can be answered then one can in turn take a better stab at modelling future revenue and profit growth and thereby deriving the EPS stream re vehicles. The answers also have considerable bearing on modelling the likely revenue stream from stationary storage. Hence my posing those two questions in case there are people herabouts who can share any additional useful insights.

( I fully agree on your other points as well. There will be losers. Countries and companies. )

.... So do you have any useful insights re those two questions ?
I bet Tesla does...
 
I agree which is why I posed both those questions

- Q1. Can the cell suppliers (and their mineral suppliers) continue to meet the total annual increases that the historical evidence suggests will continue to be met ?
- Q2. Can Tesla continue to capture at least a 20% market share of that cell supply for vehicle use ?


If those questions can be answered then one can in turn take a better stab at modelling future revenue and profit growth and thereby deriving the EPS stream re vehicles. The answers also have considerable bearing on modelling the likely revenue stream from stationary storage. Hence my posing those two questions in case there are people herabouts who can share any additional useful insights.

( I fully agree on your other points as well. There will be losers. Countries and companies. )

.... So do you have any useful insights re those two questions ?
Been monitoring how legacy auto is planning on F-ing this transition up and they are doing a better job at this than I anticipated. I now question based on some of the investments companies are actually pouring in if they are even going yo transition at all. It seems they are preparing for a future of a mixed of EVs and gas vs just EVs. Due to this, there will be plenty of battery supply for Tesla. China's ev explosion will be short lived and will be isolated to only China. If you couldn't tell, the grind for ev adoption in the US would be a tiny foot note if Tesla doesn't exist. And it seems that it will continue to be a foot note for legacy auto for the foreseeable future. China is way ahead in the S curve while US is way behind. If battery producers are scaling up as if China is the standard growth rate then we have nothing to worry about.
 
Or even lose money - even if TSLA goes up. As they say in their description.

If you are not waiting out wash sale timeout, there is no benefit in buying TSLL compared to LEAPs.

That’s possible, though extremely rare.

The downside to LEAPs is the timing factor. TSLL carries short term volatility risk while LEAPs carry longer term risk. But yeah if you are confident TSLA will be going up in some future time window, options provide much more leverage.
 
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Does anyone have stats on such crashes by other vehicle owners ?

I hope all OEMs someday can at least stop such obvious collisions.
Google “firetruck crash -tesla”.

They don’t make national headlines because it’s doesn't get clicks if there’s no Tesla in it. I stopped at four.





These are all in the last month. Enough of this Teslas crash into fire truck *sugar*. Everyone does it.
 
Since Lotus sold over 35K Elise compared to the Roadster production of 2,500 it's obvious the high door sill was not going to be an impediment to sales.

That's wrong-headed thinking because the original Roadster was a proof-of-concept EV in order to get media publicity and sell the upcoming Model S to original Roadster buyers and their family, friends and co-workers/acquaintances, etc. Not any old publicity would work, it had to be good publicity. If people viewed the Roadster as overly impractical and/or couldn't even get in it for a test drive/ride, it wouldn't have been nearly as effective as it was in getting pre-sales of Model S. Tesla was depending upon those pre-sales in order to go public most profitably. Being seen as the maker of overly impractical cars could have been the difference between reaching critical mass and people losing interest.

The Lotus Elise sold over 10 times as many because it was surprisingly affordable, sold to a much younger sports car crowd (who were not overly concerned with ingress/egress issues), and it sold over a much longer timeframe.

Elon knew that the expense to lower the door sill was peanuts compared to the amount of money they were going to need to raise to take Tesla to the next level. Elon didn't want to take any more risk than he absolutely had to that lack of confidence would lead to failure. He also knew that people who had the kind of money he needed to carry out his plan tended to be older, some of them not in the greatest shape. It was less about selling more Roadsters and more about creating the car maker image he needed. His brilliance was in having the vision to know what to spend money on to make his plan most likely to succeed.
 
I agree which is why I posed both those questions

- Q1. Can the cell suppliers (and their mineral suppliers) continue to meet the total annual increases that the historical evidence suggests will continue to be met ?
- Q2. Can Tesla continue to capture at least a 20% market share of that cell supply for vehicle use ?


If those questions can be answered then one can in turn take a better stab at modelling future revenue and profit growth and thereby deriving the EPS stream re vehicles. The answers also have considerable bearing on modelling the likely revenue stream from stationary storage. Hence my posing those two questions in case there are people herabouts who can share any additional useful insights.

( I fully agree on your other points as well. There will be losers. Countries and companies. )

.... So do you have any useful insights re those two questions ?
March 1 will provide some answers on 4680 production.

The race is about to enter the backstraight, the pace will pick up, the race leader Tesla knows that it is the right time to kick.
 
No need to wait out the wash sale period if you're making money on your trades. :)
Year to date the TSLL multiplier is 1.72x.
Let me be clear - as I wrote in the options thread a while back.

I think TSLL is a good alternate investment during wash out timeout periods. During other times there are a lot of ways to make money on options (either short or long term). BTW, TSLL is just investing in calls, AFAIK. So, instead you can directly invest in calls - unless you can't because of washout period, in 401k which doesn't allow options etc.

Investing in the funds involves a high degree of risk. Unlike traditional ETFs, or even other leveraged and/or inverse ETFs, these leveraged and/or inverse single-stock ETFs track the price of a single stock rather than an index, eliminating the benefits of diversification. Leveraged and inverse ETFs pursue daily leveraged investment objectives, which means they are riskier than alternatives which do not use leverage. They seek daily goals and should not be expected to track the underlying stock’s performance over periods longer than one day. They are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by investors who understand leverage risk and who actively manage their investments. The Funds will lose money if the underlying stock’s performance is flat, and it is possible that the Bull Fund will lose money even if the underlying stock’s performance increases, and the Bear Fund will lose money even if the underlying stock’s performance decreases, over a period longer than a single day.
 
That's wrong-headed thinking because the original Roadster was a proof-of-concept EV in order to get media publicity and sell the upcoming Model S to original Roadster buyers and their family, friends and co-workers/acquaintances, etc. Not any old publicity would work, it had to be good publicity. If people viewed the Roadster as overly impractical and/or couldn't even get in it for a test drive/ride, it wouldn't have been nearly as effective as it was in getting pre-sales of Model S. Tesla was depending upon those pre-sales in order to go public most profitably. Being seen as the maker of overly impractical cars could have been the difference between reaching critical mass and people losing interest.

The Lotus Elise sold over 10 times as many because it was surprisingly affordable, sold to a much younger sports car crowd (who were not overly concerned with ingress/egress issues), and it sold over a much longer timeframe.

Elon knew that the expense to lower the door sill was peanuts compared to the amount of money they were going to need to raise to take Tesla to the next level. Elon didn't want to take any more risk than he absolutely had to that lack of confidence would lead to failure. He also knew that people who had the kind of money he needed to carry out his plan tended to be older, some of them not in the greatest shape. It was less about selling more Roadsters and more about creating the car maker image he needed. His brilliance was in having the vision to know what to spend money on to make his plan most likely to succeed.
Very insightful.

Not a lot of people remember that the Model X was unveiled before the Model S started production. It generated a ton of buzz. For me personally, the Model X unveil is what brought me to even notice Tesla and several months later, I had a deposit down on a Model S. The Model X was overly complicated and absolutely didn’t need those Falcon wing doors to sell in volume. But in 2010/2011 when it was being designed, no one knew that. Elon pushed for another Wow car as a kinda backup insurance in case the Model S didn’t catch fire and, like with me, it drew attention to Tesla for Model S sales.

People forget how precarious Tesla was back in the Roadster days. So few people knew about Tesla, they had to claw and scratch their way into the few sales they managed to get.

Remember, no supercharger network, no charger network of any kind (J1772 hadn’t even been invented yet). People even now wonder if an EV will leave them stranded. In 2007 it was a legit worry.
 
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The cheapest (not in a good way) Tesla I've ever seen. Reported to be nickels.

mkgvLal.jpg


obnoxious youtube behind the spoiler
 
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What's the guess on the number of nickels, added weight and range reduction?

The video shows 199.6 pounds of nickels in the cardboard boxes before they unbox them. Each box was $100 in nickels, they didn't make it clear how many boxes were on the scale but you could see at least 3 (turns out it's ~22.2 pounds per box so 9 boxes of $100 each). So about 18,000 nickels (we don't know if they just put all 18,000 on or if they ran out of space and had a few left over).

There is also the weight of the adhesive to consider, likely more than the weight of the cardboard they tossed. So over 200 pounds easily.

About the same range loss as one large or two small passengers.
 
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Follow-up question: if you think stock price is going to go even higher, why not buy at the current price? And if not, why not sell at the current price?
I can only speak for myself. I would be buying at these prices. But I don't have spare cash lying around at the moment for such things and I'm happy with my current share count.