Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

Could be this design from last summer:

New Tesla Supercharger Design Emerges In Technical Drawings

Another day brings another hint about the rumored V4 Tesla Supercharging, which is expected to be introduced in the near future.

insideevs.com

From: Insideevs.com (Jul 20, 2022)

View attachment 910715

Yes, this is what I was referring to. This was uncovered in some plans by Marco back in July but never really appeared. Either they decided not to move forward with the new design or it’s just not been rolled out yet.

Curious thing, when I was juicing up my car last year I ran into some contractors who were adding chargers to the Woodburn Supercharger location I talked to the contractors a bit. It was after the above photos were rolled out so I asked them about v4 and they told me the chargers they were installing were “Convertible”. The impression I got from him was that the cabinets they were installing would be capable of supporting v4 charging, but that they were installing v3 heads at the moment.

Not really sure what that means in terms of end points, but I did find it a super curious thing for him to say.

 

[hitchhiker]

dedicated software is very helpful for end mile delivery vans, so software can automatically update satnav to next drop off, give package information and delivery instructions to the driver, whilst relaying information back to the company and end customer - however for long distance trucks it is likely irrelevant.

Seems like it would be far more efficient for Tesla to fully support Apple CarPlay and Android Auto... then let the customers run their existing ios and android apps using the center screen.

 

[Baumisch]

Seems like it would be far more efficient for Tesla to fully support Apple CarPlay and Android Auto... then let the customers run their existing ios and android apps using the center screen.

At least the browser Tesla has is capable nowadays - I favorited all my Google Apps and they are working great for mail, calendar, news etc .... meet and other video stuff during driving is not supported of course. Web Browser performance from MCU2 to '22 MY was night and day.

I still agree - some way to utilize the screen estate would be great. I mean there already is steam support (kind of - it's still a bit bloated hack) so you could write software as steam games and run that way ... if steam supports that.

 

[hobbes]

Now I finally understand the magic dock... Hope the locking mechanisms (adapter-charger and adapter-cable) are durable, kind of afraid that is the weak point of that system.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628898921719255045

 

[SOULPEDL]

Jordan speculates on Investor Day

Well that was informative! Great piece as usual, informative slides too.

On one hand, a lack of product details to focus more on the platform doesn't have the same "investor" splash in the conventional sense. This is reminiscent of Battery Day where the 4680 teasers with amazing specs for the technical crowd, but nothing we could go out a purchase until years later. The Semi factory in Nevada had this same feel - future is bright, but what about today? And today stuff is what seems to make TSLA move: A huge price drop for example.

So I'm not so sure we'll see the market response deserved until it all sinks in. Even then, will anyone hear about it? Long investors will smile as they understand how the future looks so bright. So my gut says stock doesn't move until we get into Q1 volumes and margins. (Although, a hint at current or future margins with vehicle pricing could help in the short run until April.)

Jordan rightly hopes that Tesla clarifies the HW4 and FSD questions we all have. He points out that Master Plan part Deux describes how a vehicle with FSD could generate income. Yet I see no clear way of removing my steering wheel or disabling it (which is solidly connected to the steering system). So we could see a platform reveal (and revenue projections), but not necessarily a new specific vehicle or reveal like he says. (Sometimes I think our Cybertruck model with folding steering wheel and pedals was a subtle hint, but could have been simply the toy builder's creativity.)

Further, HW3 and the camera thing is troublesome, I think there's a workaround using old camera (or new with interface) mounted at a new angle, but again just a guess. This is a liability, I have one of the original FSD's... so still waiting for this, so is Bob (oh Beyond Meat is up today, he had to call me).

So, I hope I'm wrong, but this might not be the time to double down - Just another opinion here. If you think I'm always wrong based on prior bad guesses, then maybe I am the contrarian and our day comes sooner than anyone could imagine. My last prediction had 60% gut confidence in a stock rise post earnings, so sometimes I'm correct.

Interesting how Elon is redefining "Investor" here. On the long front, this is reassuring for those doomsday thoughts we all get now and then. I will trade a little as usual, but I'm locked in for life and was sold long ago.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Curious, what’s the incentive to unplug before reaching 100% charge when charging by kWh rather than by time? Will this change result in more delays at Superchargers? I know many places do charge by kWh, so what’s the experience there been?

Well, you're obviously Canadian, since this is the same situation faced by Supercharger users in the U.S.

• Time is precious: people WANT to unplug as soon as possible
• Charge limits at high traffic SuC stations extended to 90% state-of-charge
• the car complains if you charge beyond 90% (except LFP batteries)

The bigger problem by far in the COLD White North is Supercharging a cold battery pack. People should L2 charge to precondition where possible, or enter a SuC destination in NAV when necessary to warm up their pack.

Cheers!

 

[willow_hiller]

Now I finally understand the magic dock... Hope the locking mechanisms (adapter-charger and adapter-cable) are durable, kind of afraid that is the weak point of that system.

I was thinking about this as well. I don't think the would-be thief would have any leverage while the adapter is locked inside the charger; and if anyone attempts to steal the adapter while it's locked to the end of the cable, they must have started a charging session to unlock it in the first place, and Tesla would have their credit card on file to charge them the full replacement cost.

That, and stealing the adapter itself wouldn't be too useful if the Tesla App only authenticates non-Tesla sessions on stations that have Magic Dock in the first place. They wouldn't be able to take it to a regular Supercharger and use it.

 

[mongo]

Regarding apps:
Tesla S&X run the Steam library, no reason that this is limited to games.

Edit: may need to add API/ file system/ HID interface for GPS feed, but that's minor.

 

[Max Plaid]

Now I finally understand the magic dock... Hope the locking mechanisms (adapter-charger and adapter-cable) are durable, kind of afraid that is the weak point of that system.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628898921719255045

Looks stressed...

 

[Captkerosene]

My entry into the March Moonshot competition: Announce a national network of mostly underground tunnels for the transportation of cargo and people to rival the rail and interstate highway systems. Tesla to provide autonomous electric, pressurized vehicles and energy requirements.

 

[iPlug]

Supply side/input costs continue to improve. Good news for Tesla/TSLA, EV makers, and consumers.

Lithium - 2023 Data - 2017-2022 Historical - 2024 Forecast - Price - Quote - Chart

 

[mongo]

Supply side/input costs continue to improve. Good news for Tesla/TSLA, EV makers, and consumers.

View attachment 910832
Lithium - 2023 Data - 2017-2022 Historical - 2024 Forecast - Price - Quote - Chart

For reference, the 5 year chart:

 

[AndrewZ]

Also for reference, good idea to read the write-ups for each commodity

Things like the Inflation Reduction Act and further protectionist legislation might even put longer-term downward pressure on lithium and other critical battery materials from China while increasing the value of those materials -- as sparse as they already are -- from domestic Western/Euro suppliers and countries with free trade agreements.

CATL discounting prices might be an early sign of China's response to the IRA and whatever else may be coming.

 

[Curt Renz]

It’s Friday, meaning a weekly options expiration day. An examination of the TSLA open interest and trading volume for today’s expiring options, suggests that $195 could be the most profitable closing price for large option writers (hedge funds & market makers) with the ability to temporarily manipulate the share price.

 

[navguy12]

Curious, what’s the incentive to unplug before reaching 100% charge when charging by kWh rather than by time? Will this change result in more delays at Superchargers? I know many places do charge by kWh, so what’s the experience there been?

Currently I’ll get up from lunch to move the car once I hit my target charge because I know about the tapering of the charging curve and how each kWh gets increasingly more expensive. Also, it’s just being a good citizen. If the cost per kWh is exactly the same where I’m currently charging as my battery hits 90% charge as it would down the road when I pull in with 8% charge, we’ll then I might as well go on enjoying my lunch another 10 minutes and also enjoy less range anxiety and faster driving speeds on the next leg of my journey. After all, enjoying a good lunch is far more important to me than making sure to vacate the charger ASAP so the next guy has a place to charge .

Here in Ontario, with charging by the minute, I’ve found that the overall cost per kW works out to about 44 cents per kWh, so I’m expecting a flat rate of about 50 cents per kWh.

 

[Knightshade]

Regarding apps:
Tesla S&X run the Steam library, no reason that this is limited to games.

Edit: may need to add API/ file system/ HID interface for GPS feed, but that's minor.

FWIW, the reason they run steam, specifically, is they're mostly just borrowing Valves code to do that under Linux that they (Valve) developed for the steamdeck.... which is also why the games library is limited to just stuff that works on a steamdeck.

If they want to run things outside of steam they'd need to do more of the heavy lifting coding wise for anything not Linux native....--- that's certainly possible, but requires more development effort from Tesla specifically unless they can work some kinda deal with Valve on that....Android apps would be pretty easy- iOS ones...not so much.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Lol, I wonder what Max Pain is today?



I'm sure it's just a coincidence, and the MMs are not using any handy excuse to move the SP.

Noope.

 

[Artful Dodger]

On a lighter note:

Tesla's NEW HW4 Car Computer | Munro Live (1 hr ago)

 

[mongo]

FWIW, the reason they run steam, specifically, is they're mostly just borrowing Valves code to do that under Linux that they (Valve) developed for the steamdeck.... which is also why the games library is limited to just stuff that works on a steamdeck.

If they want to run things outside of steam they'd need to do more of the heavy lifting coding wise for anything not Linux native....--- that's certainly possible, but requires more development effort from Tesla specifically unless they can work some kinda deal with Valve on that....Android apps would be pretty easy- iOS ones...not so much.

Right, but for a Semi specific app,why not Linux (or Linux API wrapped Windows (also Steamdeck))? All the security stuff must already be addressed.

 

[Nocturnal]

Investor day could show off a lot of things, but I don't see how we don't see a clear path from today to the goal of 20 million vehicles. That's what WS wants to see.

How do you show that? New factories, battery/mineral supply info, and new model details. Anything else will be seen as "typical Musk fluff".