Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[unk45]

My main observation after watching the Investor Day presentation is there was next to no mention of "Elon". Each presenter talked about "We/Us", "Tesla", "The business" and not about "Elon".

...

One day Elon will announce his replacement as CEO and it shouldn't matter too much. When that day comes the SP will most likely take a hit, but it will probably be short lived since the numbers speak for themselves.

This was one of the major lessons for the Elon-centric crowd!
No question, TSLA does not need another Elon compensation plan such as he had.

 

[2101Guy]

No news on FSD, no news on product. The two new gigafactories are footnotes. They buried the lithium refining news (which is big). He started talking about robots but has failed to deliver on FSD for 4 years after he said he'd be driving coast to coast. Anyone that has ever looked at anthropomorphic challenges knows what the challenge is (hands/wrist in software and hardware) EM is not announcing any breakthroughs there so why talk about robots in a hand wavy manner.

He should have skipped this one and let the team present numbers IMO.

So much all of this. Let’s be real: ALL of wall street was awaiting definitive info on the new everymans model. And Elon himself has been hyping FSD for so long and has said it’s “critical to the entire financial future of Tesla”, that it’s common sense to expect detailed updates on when it will do what he’s said it will do.

We may not agree but can certainly understand why Wall Street reacted the way it’s reacting. Add to that, Elons track record of delivering new things in the time he’s stated, isn’t that great. I suspect that’s a factor in the AH/PM numbers as well

 

[CHGolferJim]

Ok... Where is Master Plan Part 3? Did I miss it?

Is the joke in this master plan that there is no written plan?

Is the plan just "Electrify all the things"?

I mean it seems pretty clear the Tesla team is focused on a common goal. Looking around the edges of this presentation, it seems clear that the plan is to keep aggressively pushing the world towards sustainable energy, but... is there an actual clear written plan the way there is with part 1 and part 2? Can I link to Tesla's Master Plan Part 3?

Maybe something along the lines of turning this: "Earth can and will move to a sustainable energy economy, and will do so in your lifetime." into an action statement?

Just seems odd to me that there was no detailed plan laid out the way the previous 2 were.

True, but wasn’t there a slide saying MP3 was “coming soon” and would be published as a document? Presumably it will be more tightly argued than tonight’s somewhat simplified slide show.

 

[15Peter20]

-8% in PM, WTF?
I'm buying today.

 

[GOVA]

The piece about Tier1/Tier2 suppliers was an eye-opener. The virutal simulation of production line and its implementation with the end results improvement was a mind blown.

 

[Singuy]

-8% in PM, WTF?
I'm buying today.

Bed bath rallied 20+% after they announced insolvency possible. Maybe that's what investors wanted from Tesla.

I would ignore this clown market and focus on the fundamentals.

 

[Todd Burch]

SarahsDad said:
"Made the decision to remove the sunroof on Model S because we modeled and tracked it and no one was using it*".

*Survey conducted in the northern hemisphere, Dec 2020-Feb 2021

 

[jkirkwood001]

Seems like the ONE standard our government could do to help EV adoption that was never accomplished with ICE is to mandate a standard charging port location. This is getting silly already. 4 corners of the vehicle it can go on-just pick one and move on.

Agreed, but really two corners and outlier middle (Porsche?). Left-front is same as right-rear backed onto the slot, no?

 

[Singuy]

SarahsDad said:
"Made the decision to remove the sunroof on Model S because we modeled and tracked it and no one was using it*".

*Survey conducted in the northern hemisphere, Dec-Feb 2021

Honestly tho, who uses a sun roof besides the first few days? It's the root cause for creeks and leaks but provide near zero value the customer pays for.

 

[nativewolf]

- Gorgeous team breadth and depth. Hired for ability to get it done within a well-aligned culture, not any other criteria. (Well, one exception).

- The overall scale of the global energy transformation was very much in line with the same models I've built, giving much the same results. (I put more of my results on the Resource Angle thread) : The Resource Angle . Lovely to see that Tesla is still aiming for it. Nice to see that they come up with the same financial answer I do, i.e. winding down the fossil economy ongoing costs pays for the buildout of the renewable economy.

- (Anybody fancy a 10-year short on fossils ? 20-year ? How are pension funds feeling ? They have no excuse for not paying attention to this stuff now)

- Musk clearly doesn't consider V2G to be very beneficial. I think the same way. Nevertheless grudgingly it will get done, one day, perhaps. Almost certainly not as a retrofit. Most likely only for locations with a Tesla Powerwall as a minimum.

- Look at the bulk of that inductive charging pad in the sneak preview shot (the one alongside the shot of the Tesla cafe, with the red car in a garage). That is a clear signal that at present this could only be considered as a unidirectional link. Again another reason not to rush on V2G.

- PMG with sufficient torque that is not rare earth neos ? Tell me more. Something was in that slot. Is this the return of Ferrite2 ? Or what ?

- Gen 3 will be a 2/Z at least, because it is clear that it will have multiple models off the common manufacturing platform. Loads of good stuff about the design target for Gen 3. Perfect.

- They can't release a 2/Z now because they are cell-supply-limited. The extra 4680 capacity coming out of the Austin lines has to feed the progressive ramp of the Y there. But phew at least they are now on DBE, confirmed. The 4680 ramp is proceeding, not great, but not trainwreck bad either. The extra LFP coming out of China needs to feed the ramp of Berlin. And by late 2023 they need sufficient additional 4680 capacity to feed the ramp of the Cybertruck. And the ramp of Sparks will feed the Semi ramp, and the Megapack ramp (because otherwise they are nolonger a serious player in utility, and they've got to stay with the market). So there is no spare cell capacity for a 2/Z. So this year 2023 they are cell-constrained, hence only the blurt target of 2m. It is still all about cells.

- Cell material doesn't seem to be a huge concern. Enough of a concern that they are reaching through and doing work. But under control. Phew.

- It is possible that Monterrey will be the first factory to go with 2/Z, at least that's my guess. That gives 18-months from now for the cell supply to get just about enough ahead of the coming demand so as to allow for initial production of the 2/Z. I suspect we'll get leaks starting in about 6-months, then perhaps a reveal in 9-months. So first production during Q4-2024.

- Is paint control now good enough to paint separately and still get a match ? Or are they going unpainted ? (@unk45 ?)

- Tesla Energy as a service will, like insurance, be a very slow and progressive and hugely patchy build out. For much the same reasons - regulatory compliance and an abundance of caution.

- Stationary storage is going to be big, but I don't need convincing on the scale aspect of that. However no special sauce observed that is not available in the other products in the market. So no reason to think margins will be anything particularly special. Demand far greater than supply - again I don't need telling that - everyone outside USA who wants a Powerwall is well aware.

I've given up and gone SolarEdge (in fact we mount 30kWh today, hopefully and go live. The corresponding solar went live a couple months ago but we've all been too busy to do the storage until today). So Tesla will in due course need to find a way to play nicely with my SolarEdge storage or I ain't going to be a Tesla Energy customer. (So Daily Energy News will likely be late today, prob this evening).

- Lots of good info on Supercharger network. I need to mine the data on those slides a bit to get some calibration into my models.

- Relentless focus on driving down cost whilst increasing performance, both internally and externally. I love it. Means FCF pays for the build-out.

- FSD still on track, but no timeline. No HW4 mention, or did I miss that ?

- Optimus bot making seemingly good progress. That will indeed be very big one day.

- WTF was that lady on about.

- Now time for me to go install some storage

Yes on the team. He should have just let the team lead take this one IMO. Still about battery/cells but I see some risks if EU does an IRA act (which they desperately need to do IMO). If the EU forces thing through they will be seriously constrained.

Congrats on the storage!

V2home for power failures is a big issue here in the USA with our bad storms and trees all over powerlines. Right now this feature is a big differentiator for the Ford Lightning and demand for that is fairly robust. Once ford scales a bit more and finishes the 4 battery factories under construction they may hype that a bit more.

Mexico will be interesting, wish they had talked more about the semi, reservations still blocked. In the last 3 years they have had battery issues so I am a bit more cautious about them hitting the ground running in Mexico while getting the semi line up to 50k run rate (basically same cell needs as Fremont).

I think the relentless focus on massive profit is not appreciated.



Multiple threats on fsd so not talking about it is wise.

 

[Todd Burch]

Honestly tho, who uses a sun roof besides the first few days? It's the root cause for creeks and leaks but provide near zero value the customer pays for.

I use mine every day the weather is nice. Never had any leaks.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Honestly tho, who uses a sun roof besides the first few days? It's the root cause for creeks and leaks but provide near zero value the customer pays for.

What state do you live in?

 

[AndrewZ]

Bed bath rallied 20+% after they announced insolvency possible. Maybe that's what investors wanted from Tesla.

I would ignore this clown market and focus on the fundamentals.

Well BBBY has a market cap of <$200million and is down 98% from the ATH, violent upward rallies take almost nothing

Tesla added like 1,700 BBBYs to its market cap just in 6 weeks starting January

 

[Krugerrand]

1) eliminating a part because it isn’t used often doesn’t make it better. It makes it worse. It’s just an acceptable “worse”

2)!you conveniently ignored the part where I said it’s in the cybertruck. If it’s making the car worse why is it in the cybertruck?

So y’all listen to the arguments you’re making? Tesla removed that because there was a parts shortage and they felt the pressure to keep the ramp going so they still shipped just without the part. And it costs less money. That’s fine. I have no problem with that. Just using that as an example that directly contradicts what was said today.
And my ORIGINAL point is to point out the ridiculous of tesla being “not trained in deception” when anyone who has ever worked in a Fortune 500 knows what a naive statement that is. And yah you can say “stop being so uptight that was just a tongue in cheek statement” yah, I would believe that…but it’s hard to tell when folks like @Krugerrand just decide to dislike every negative comment because I’m not inanely cheerleading and can acknowledge these realities, which I correctly forecasted here and made $8000 this week selling CCs against. Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Grow up. I *disagreed* (there isn’t a dislike choice) with several of your posts because I disagreed with your POV, your opinion, your take of the situation.

Wow! A whole $8,000. Look at you go. Too bad you didn’t have any conviction for your forecast (the one that MANY others also figured would happen because it’s, you know, happened a dozen times before) you could have actually made some serious coin.

 

[Paracelsus]

CNBC is also negative on investor day.

This is a Musk presentation fail. No problem with Tesla's strategy and execution IMO. Or the presentation from the leaders.

Step 1 - Buy as much TSLA stock as you can comfortably afford to buy

Step 2 - Ignore everything that those who work for Wall Street say - (CNBC, Jim Cramer, NYT’s, Dan Ives and others). Ignore them in good times and bad times. They are employed by people who want to separate you from your shares in the best of times, and those same people want you to be left holding the bag in the worst of times.

Case in point - Dan Ives screaming a message that came across as TSLA was brand damaged/demolished by Musk/Twitter in December when WS wanted cheaper shares before the end of the year. And then the calendar hit 2023 as TSLA hit a 2 year low at the bottom of its last support level, and then suddenly Dan is full-on fan-boy in January when WS is ready to run up the price. Nothing had fundamentally changed with the company in that time frame yet Dan went full Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde on all Retail investors. And everyone who invested based on this input had sold their shares to WS just before WS enjoyed a 100% run up in price.

How anybody cites any of these sources at anytime with a belief that it is a sincere and accurate reflection of Tesla’s capabilities and current status is beyond me. I struggle with this every week on TMC. CNBC is on TV saying bad things about Elon - time to drop the soap……..

Not an advice, just sharing some school of hard knocks lessons and opinions that have made my life a little less stressful over the last decade.

 

[CHGolferJim]

I believe what Elon meant was Tesla doesn't need to have more than 7 or 8 models at any one time... never said they have to be the same models that will be offered currently.

Let that sink in.

S
X
3
Y
Semi
CyberTruck
Robotaxi
Van/Delivery
People Mover (Boring)
etc.

 

[Singuy]

Well BBBY has a market cap of <$200million and is down 98% from the ATH, violent upward rallies take almost nothing

Tesla added like 1,700 BBBYs to its market cap just in 6 weeks starting January

"Our stock is going to zero soon" sounds like a buying opportunity

"Our tam is unlimited" sell sell sell!

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I should disagree with this because it fails to understand what they told us Gen 3 was;
It is a platform, with at least two specific vehicles based on the platform coming soon.
Those will have a 50% cost reduction compared with Model 3 IIRC. Once we all digest the information that was disclosed the significance of gen 3 becomes evident. That platform, they did not say, probably will have something akin to a single large pressing and a single additional structural battery that will carry the interior with it. That process could be high automated and vastly scalable. New versions on the platform could be quite varied with modest cost differences.

Bluntly, I am convinced this is the fruition of the old promised Mattel model Elon talked about a decade or so ago.

I don't think you should expect a single massive casting. They pretty much showed the next step, which was several large modules with exterior panels bolted on (around 1h8m into the presentation, "The Unboxed Process"). Basically assembly of large sub-assemblies (front end from dash forward, back end from rear seats back, structural pack with seats and center console, bolt together and attach body panels), they even indicated the plan for these large sub-assemblies to already have been through integrated diagnostics to be sure that internally all wiring connections are functional and so on, so that they only need to worry about connections between these assemblies after putting them together. And perhaps importantly the throwaway comment, "Just like Cybertruck."

 

[thx1139]

For Investor day what I feel was missing wasnt stuff hidden in the details. For analysts having more plain metrics would have been helpful for summary purposes.

What is current production volume out of Giga Texas for Model Y? What is expectation by Q3, Q4, 2024.
Same for 4680 production.
Same for Giga Berlin production.
What is planned launch Quarter for CyberTruck? Production expectation for Q3, Q4, 2024.
What is Semi production volume? How many you expect to produce in 2023, 2024.
What is Megapack production out of Lathrop? Again quarter by quarter expectations.
What is Powerwall production? Again quarter by quarter expectations.
What is Solar installation volume? Again quarter by quarter expectations.
What is Solar roof production volume?

Etc. etc.

As for the $25K car. It is not a good idea to announce until right before production starts. Do all you can do to keep the car underwraps. Hide everything you can because the car lingering coming soon will introduce competition for the Model 3 and Model Y. Dont know if you can say that, but it is the smart thing to do. As for a Van I think they could have announced that sometime after CyberTruck launches we will make a CyberVan.

 

[nativewolf]

1) eliminating a part because it isn’t used often doesn’t make it better. It makes it worse. It’s just an acceptable “worse”

2)!you conveniently ignored the part where I said it’s in the cybertruck. If it’s making the car worse why is it in the cybertruck?

So y’all listen to the arguments you’re making? Tesla removed that because there was a parts shortage and they felt the pressure to keep the ramp going so they still shipped just without the part. And it costs less money. That’s fine. I have no problem with that. Just using that as an example that directly contradicts what was said today.
And my ORIGINAL point is to point out the ridiculous of tesla being “not trained in deception” when anyone who has ever worked in a Fortune 500 knows what a naive statement that is. And yah you can say “stop being so uptight that was just a tongue in cheek statement” yah, I would believe that…but it’s hard to tell when folks like @Krugerrand just decide to dislike every negative comment because I’m not inanely cheerleading and can acknowledge these realities, which I correctly forecasted here and made $8000 this week selling CCs against. Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

If krugerrand dislikes you it is a post worth reading. Sometimes it is correct...usually the OP has said something true but unflattering. You were correct. Like Tesla saying they were not battery constrained last year when it was a giant deception since they were as they later admitted- they have always been cell constrained.