Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[petit_bateau]

Slovenia-China-rail : the first trans-Caspian China-Europe train from Jiaozhou, in eastern China, to the port of Koper, in Slovenia. The convoy, loaded with new electric vehicles, covered the 13,000-kilometre route in 45 days.

There is no info on which brand. However Tesla has been using Koper so there is a possibility this may be Tesla. Note that this route bypasses Russia.

KTZ tests new China-Europe route to avoid the congested Black Sea

Kazakhstan Railways (KTZ) sent the first trans-Caspian China-Europe train from Jiaozhou, in eastern China, to the port of Koper, in Slovenia. The convoy, loaded with new electric vehicles, covered the 13,000-kilometre route in 45 days. This was the first time that this route was tested. The...

www.railfreight.com

 

[2daMoon]

All the water we drink has been sewer-water at some point in time, it has been peed or excreted from another human on multiple occasions, some of the water molecules in your glass may well have passed through Elon's bladder, or Donald Trumps, or maybe Adolf Hitler's colon... perhaps all three!

Etc.

Not to mention what all those fish do in it...

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Hmmm. Maybe the Mexico factory is where they’ll make all their 48v parts … and also sell them to any other OEM that wants to move to 48V. Point being is that it’ll be more than just a vehicle factory. Oh, and of course, they’ll make cells and batteries there too. Maybe Teslabots too. We really have no idea what Tesla’s plans are here…

48 VDC actuators also make sense for Optimus; gotta wonder if the commonality there doesn't have some effect on the 48V decision. I don't remember what code it is (UL?) but under 50 VDC is considered less of a health and safety issue than higher voltages. Been standard in telcom for a long time from what I understand.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Not to mention what all those fish do in it...

Why do you think I drink beer instead? That H2O stuff is disgusting!

 

[Buckminster]

One thing that hasn't been mentioned here I think:

Elon not happy that there are three standards of MY:
1 gigacasting
2 gigacastings
Structural battery

All factories will be updated in sync for 3rd gen.

 

[Knightshade]

One thing I haven't seen mentioned in all this V2G discussion is, and sorry if this is very dumb and/or obvious, what if you need to drive somewhere, then your house goes down - this reinforces the idea of having V2G in conjunction with a Powerwall

In the US at least the average number of vehicles per household is >2, so you'd drive the one that is NOT powering your house at the moment.

In the future of course you'd just summon a Tesla robotaxi

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Remember, this is about optimizing the process. You don’t want to copy/paste a suboptimal process. Instead you want your process going as fast as you can. THEN you copy/paste it everywhere.

I took those numbers to refer to the line they currently have set up in Austin. Once Tesla hits what they believe is an optimal process—say 5k/week just for example…then you can copy/paste that and immediately get 10k/week, assuming you have the raw materials.

I question that any Tesla line/factory will be truly "copy and paste", given Tesla's focus on improvement and refinement. There is no such thing as an optimal design or process. You learn something every single time, and there is always room for improvement. Now, does that matter? Not really-the basic concepts and principles developed on one line can certainly be iterated, tweaked and improved and used on the next line-far more quickly than starting from scratch. But true "copy and paste" with interchangeable lines and tooling? Perhaps but I'm not convinced.

 

[Olle]

Adamas has also picked up on the "no-rare-earths" point, but they don't really add anything to the discussion.

A thought that I had was that there may be learning going on from the Semi, and that this learning may be propogating to the Gen3 and perhaps also to the Cybertruck. If you recall the Semi has some clutches that disengage motors so that there is no motor drag. The clutches are nifty in that they are essentially a dog tooth clutch that engages two shafts spinning at matched speeds (maybe even matched positions, we don't yet know that bit) before carrying out the engage/disengage operation. So transient forces are minimised, and there are no friction/wear components. Great if it works reliably.

The steady state power (or torque) requirements in a vehicle are relatively low. It is really the acceleration requirements that call for the big motor. So perhaps the Gen3 will be multi-motor in nature with a ferrite 'weak' motor for cruising, and a clutched neo 'strong' motor for boosting (acceleration, hill climbing, maybe even regen braking). That would allow for the use of ferrites with the existing ferrite field strengths (i.e. no magic ferrite2). Since the duty cycle of the neo would be relatively infrequent then they might be able to get away with a relatively skimpy neo boost motor & ancilliary systems. This may show up first in the CT.

Just a thought. I guess we will find out more in due course.


Anyway here is the Adamas bit : Implications: Tesla Announces Next Generation Rare-Earth-Free PMSM

Excellent thought!

Here is another idea:
The fact that Tesla was willing to put three carbon sleeved rotor motors (CSRM) instead of the originally planned four M3 motors in the Semi should possibly tell us that they each cost no more than 133% of a non CSRM (incl. inverter).

If so, is it possible that CSRM will become standard on all cars, but with ferrite magnets in all non Plaid, non Semi, lets call them "base"?

The carbon sleeve would allow them to adjust up the rpm band in the base cars, to retain the power of today's rare earth base motor while avoiding the inefficiency of larger ferrite magnets. Only difference between 'max power' rare earth and 'base' ferrite cars would be rotor internals, gear ratio and inverter content. And maybe throw in aluminum stator winding in base car to really nail it on cost.

Benefits:

--> Low cost and mass of an unusually small ferrite motor
--> Economy of scale of using the same drive unit envelope for all vehicles.
--> Keep adding all new volume to the accumulated production learning curve (lowering cost) of existing drive unit envelope.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Be aware that while Tesla Superchargers are great for Tesla vehicles, they aren't great for many others. The Magic Dock seems limited to 150 kW, and those that have 800V architectures are often capped at 50kW or 100 kW when charging at 400V Superchargers.

Has that 150 kw limit been confirmed?

 

[thx1139]

One thing that hasn't been mentioned here I think:

Elon not happy that there are three standards of MY:
1 gigacasting
2 gigacastings
Structural battery

All factories will be updated in sync for 3rd gen.

I thought if 2 gigacastings then structural battery is a requirement?

My understanding is that Giga Texas is 2 methods of building Model Y's. The Fremont/Shanghai/Berlin Model Y with 1 gigacasting and the 4680 Model Y which is 2 gigcastings and the structural pack.

 

[CanadaEV]

I question that any Tesla line/factory will be truly "copy and paste", given Tesla's focus on improvement and refinement. There is no such thing as an optimal design or process. You learn something every single time, and there is always room for improvement. Now, does that matter? Not really-the basic concepts and principles developed on one line can certainly be iterated, tweaked and improved and used on the next line-far more quickly than starting from scratch. But true "copy and paste" with interchangeable lines and tooling? Perhaps but I'm not convinced.

Yes, the concept of “copy and paste” is too rigid for Tesla.
With the new platform being amenable to “any battery, chemistry”, and the new vehicle modular assembly process., It looks like they are moving to a wider concept of “forgivable innovation”.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

IMO the big issue with Powerwalls is the price vs amount of storage. Each PW is modest in size to facilitate handling/installation and mounting. That means redundant power management hardware in each unit, redundant housings, wiring connections, etc, all adding to cost. One thing I wonder-if Tesla is considering building whole-house heat pump systems, I wonder if they won't integrate battery storage with the heat pump. May make since, given that you now have one unit to install, rather than multiple ones. And the heat pump will likely be the highest, longest-term power draw. There may be advantages to running the HP off DC power as well. Plenty of negatives-you'll have to run both DC and AC power lines to it, if you're producing DC from solar (IMO doesn't make sense to invert to AC just to convert back to DC for bat storage, but perhaps, which would eliminate that concern). Also means you'll be running very large "service level" wiring to the HP. Flip side-what if your isolation switch and main disconnect are integrated into the HP? Or even run your household supply wiring from your meter, through the HP and then into the house/distribution panel? Having that hardware pre-wired and integrated at a factory, rather than on-site, might ease local permitting/approval process. Somewhat "thinking out loud" here.

ETA, another thought, what if your electric meter is integrated with the HP/battery assy? One less enclosure, one less item to wire at the home.

 

[InDaClub]

TSLA investors may be interested in this petition...

This petition is submitted on behalf of retail stockholders who are actively seeking answers and corrective measures regarding the unfair and tyrannical actions that are being seen within the United States stock markets. For far too long, multiple startup companies and veteran companies alike have had their stock price manipulated through the exploitation of certain loopholes in regulations surrounding the practices of naked short-selling, FTDs, phantom shares, and dark pool abuses. While these issues may not seem important to you all, we the army of retail shareholders represented by this petition, are beyond frustrated by the destruction of our investment value due to these manipulative practices at the hands of wall street insiders.

We the retail investors understand that there is an inherent risk with any investments we make. Losing money is a common occurrence in the stock market. However, the exploitation of the naked short-selling regulations undermines the integrity of the US stock markets and jeopardizes investors' trust in market fairness. After the financial crisis in 2008, naked shorting became illegal. The SEC is charged with the responsibility of keeping markets fair for all and delivering oversight of its own policies and regulations.

Sign the Petition

Stop Illegal Naked Shorting

www.change.org

 

[Olle]

TSLA investors may be interested in this petition...

This petition is submitted on behalf of retail stockholders who are actively seeking answers and corrective measures regarding the unfair and tyrannical actions that are being seen within the United States stock markets. For far too long, multiple startup companies and veteran companies alike have had their stock price manipulated through the exploitation of certain loopholes in regulations surrounding the practices of naked short-selling, FTDs, phantom shares, and dark pool abuses. While these issues may not seem important to you all, we the army of retail shareholders represented by this petition, are beyond frustrated by the destruction of our investment value due to these manipulative practices at the hands of wall street insiders.

We the retail investors understand that there is an inherent risk with any investments we make. Losing money is a common occurrence in the stock market. However, the exploitation of the naked short-selling regulations undermines the integrity of the US stock markets and jeopardizes investors' trust in market fairness. After the financial crisis in 2008, naked shorting became illegal. The SEC is charged with the responsibility of keeping markets fair for all and delivering oversight of its own policies and regulations.

Sign the Petition

Stop Illegal Naked Shorting

www.change.org

Good idea. I signed.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The negative interventions referred to Tesla as a “meme of a company” and Elon Musk as a “megalomaniac billionaire.” The CRTC noted however that these interveners were not able to substantiate their claims."

Yes, clearly, the correct honorific is "Technoking Trillionaire".

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[FastEddieB]

TSLA price goes down for a few days and then goes down some more and then suddenly shoots up for a couple days and then goes down again

Or vice versa.

as Warren B states stock market is a mechanism for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.

I like it!

As an aside, just pulled the trigger for 5 more shares, funded by a recent Ford dividend. Shows where my hopes lie.

 

[Krugerrand]

The only thing that makes me nervous about Gen3 is the inevitable "____ turned out to be much harder than we anticipated"

?

Doesn’t matter if it turns out to be harder than anticipated; it’ll get done. So being nervous about something that eventually gets done seems silly at best.

 

[ggies07]

passing along...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631453499132190726

 

[lafrisbee]

All the water we drink has been sewer-water at some point in time, it has been peed or excreted from another human on multiple occasions, some of the water molecules in your glass may well have passed through Elon's bladder, or Donald Trumps, or maybe Adolf Hitler's colon... perhaps all three!

Etc.

OK Debbie Downer... To combat how miserable your post makes me feel I went and found an amusing article.

Science asserts we are all part of Christ's body

I am a very special person. My body contains about a million atoms that once resided in the body of Christ

www.irishtimes.com

And so fellow TMC'er's don't have to go to it unless they enjoy the author's humor, I have cut and pasted a couple of paragraphs below, just so you can feel better about being Hitler.


"I am a very special person. My body contains about a million atoms that once resided in the body of Christ. Also, every time I take a breath I inhale a molecule of the air that Christ exhaled as he died. I am tempted to sit back and wait for the tour buses to arrive at UCC laden with pilgrims.

But we are having a parking problem here so let me explain quickly that each of you is just as generously endowed as I am with atoms and molecules from the body of Christ. This is a consequence of two things: the nature of huge numbers, and the constant exchange of the fabric of our bodies with the fabric of the universe."

 

[viridi]

Lots of pre-market capping this morning at $195. What a surprise on a Friday with Max Pain at $195. (-;