Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Big Time]

I’m better than troy in every way.
He’s like a weather man who can only tell you what the current weather is. I got a window I can stick my head out of too ya know…..

 

[advocate8]

If they had announced a 4B loss, their stock would be trading even higher today

This is not a “loss” as most people would think of “loss” if $10K disappeared from their checking account. This is balance sheet stuff as Ford retools in massive fashion. It’s what most would call investment as Ford shifts from essentially one type of production to the type that is the only way any carmaker will stay in business.
If any of you think Ford’s EV lines were going to be profitable from the beginning, you don’t understand large-scale manufacturing at all.
Tesla approached this an entirely different, and brilliant way. But it was a different kind of company from established automakers. They have to do it this way, to greater and lesser degrees. And on paper, some will incur massive “losses.” Others currently may look very similar if they split out EV numbers as Ford did here.
And some may not survive.
But I can guarantee you any that do not make such investments aren’t going to.

 

[bkp_duke]

This is not a “loss” as most people would think of “loss” if $10K disappeared from their checking account. This is balance sheet stuff as Ford retools in massive fashion. It’s what most would call investment as Ford shifts from essentially one type of production to the type that is the only way any carmaker will stay in business.
If any of you think Ford’s EV lines were going to be profitable from the beginning, you don’t understand large-scale manufacturing at all.
Tesla approached this an entirely different, and brilliant way. But it was a different kind of company from established automakers. They have to do it this way, to greater and lesser degrees. And on paper, some will incur massive “losses.” And some may not survive.
But I can guarantee you any that do not make such investments aren’t going to.

If money coming in is less than money going out . . . it's a loss.

 

[JRP3]

I’m better than troy in every way.
He’s like a weather man who can only tell you what the current weather is. I got a window I can stick my head out of too ya know…..

How much do you charge?

 

[AndrewZ]

The Troy Teslike discussion IS tiresome.

Let's change the description from "forecast" to "reporting". Troy is updating his "reporting" as new information comes in. "Based on current information, the projected quarter should end up this.

There, wasn't that easy? FIFY.

Reporting reflects what actually happened in the past, forecasts try to predict what is coming and most definitely change when new information becomes available or conditions change because the real world is full of variables.

Forecasting is hard, it's understandable that some people want to believe forecasts should remain static. I guarantee Tesla doesn't operate that way and they employ people who... Never mind, I just googled it and sure enough.

Sales Forecast Lead | Tesla Careers

Apply for the Sales Forecast Lead position in AUSTIN, Texas.

www.tesla.com

 

[Big Time]

How much do you charge?

Usually a sleeve of ritz crackers and some bubble gum

 

[Cosmacelf]

Just wait until the big boys get rolling.

Ford Says It Will Lose $3 Billion on EVs This Year as It Touts Startup Mentality

The auto maker says it wants to give investors more visibility into the performance of its three business units.

www.wsj.com

So, Ford lost $2.1B on their EV division last year, $3B in the last two years (so, say $5B total, probably more actually).

Did Tesla ever lose anything close to $2.1B in any given year? And what’s their lifetime loss (before they started producing profitable years)?

I guess you could say that Ford has to lose more because they are a large company and somehow need to jump into the fray in a bigger way rather than start small like Tesla did. But Ford’s electric deliveries haven’t exactly been huge either. And nothing was preventing Ford from starting electrification ten years ago.

 

[AndrewZ]

Troy could probably land that sales forecasting job tomorrow @ Tesla if he wanted.

Forecasts are never totally accurate right off the bat. Budgets are never totally accurate, schedules are never totally accurate, even reporting actuals is subject to error. If you get into this line of work, there is theory and models behind all of it and it varies by industry -- AACE is one big organization that publishes documentation and does testing/certification specifically for this type of stuff and producing a solid forecast is where it all converges.

 

[Nocturnal]

I know it's obvious to the folks here, but Ford is showing exactly why legacy auto won't scale EVs. They want to build just enough to keep some skin in the game but not too much so that their losses are limited. (not to mention cannibalization)

But the competition is coming for Tesla. Trust me bro.

 

[bkp_duke]

I know it's obvious to the folks here, but Ford is showing exactly why legacy auto won't scale EVs. They want to build just enough to keep some skin in the game but not too much so that their losses are limited. (not to mention cannibalization)

But the competition is coming for Tesla. Trust me bro.

And the scary thing is Ford is probably the best positioned of the legacy OEMs.


I fear another "too big to fail" bailout. I would rather see these dinosaurs die than get free gov money again.

 

[Krugerrand]

When you have paying subscribers it is much better to be conservative at the beginning of the quarter and adjust upwards as the evidence comes in.

Funny, but as a paid professional, my clients actually expect me to be right every single time. And if I don’t know the answer I tell them straight up, I don’t know, can’t help you but here’s a resource or someone else who might know and be able to help you.

I think that’s called integrity. ‍

 

[M|S|M MYP]

This is not a “loss” as most people would think of “loss” if $10K disappeared from their checking account. This is balance sheet stuff as Ford retools in massive fashion. It’s what most would call investment as Ford shifts from essentially one type of production to the type that is the only way any carmaker will stay in business.
If any of you think Ford’s EV lines were going to be profitable from the beginning, you don’t understand large-scale manufacturing at all.
Tesla approached this an entirely different, and brilliant way. But it was a different kind of company from established automakers. They have to do it this way, to greater and lesser degrees. And on paper, some will incur massive “losses.” Others currently may look very similar if they split out EV numbers as Ford did here.
And some may not survive.
But I can guarantee you any that do not make such investments aren’t going to.

So $2B off your balance sheet is not a "loss" but an "investment"? Got it.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

So, Ford lost $2.1B on their EV division last year, $3B in the last two years (so, say $5B total, probably more actually).

Did Tesla ever lose anything close to $2.1B in any given year? And what’s their lifetime loss (before they started producing profitable years)?

I guess you could say that Ford has to lose more because they are a large company and somehow need to jump into the fray in a bigger way rather than start small like Tesla did. But Ford’s electric deliveries haven’t exactly been huge either. And nothing was preventing Ford from starting electrification ten years ago.

How many EVs did Ford build last year? I've spent the last 20 minutes looking for that and haven't found a definitive answer. I seem t recall around 30k Mach-Es discussed at one time, and a handful of Lightnings. Lets say 50k total as a guess (subject to change). So....losing about $42k per EV that they build? Doesn't strike me as a sustainable business model (yeah, I know, new products, R/D, ramping, etc. But they have been ramping the Mach-E for a few years now).

 

[StapleGun]

I'm tired of the media saying Tesla started a price war. That is BS.

Is "price war" seriously being thrown around as a negative thing now? That's hilarious considering we're coming off decade of "Tesla only makes toys for rich people".

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

And the scary thing is Ford is probably the best positioned of the legacy OEMs.


I fear another "too big to fail" bailout. I would rather see these dinosaurs die than get free gov money again.

The idea that Ford and GM get bailed out again is an unfounded fear. Last time they were bailed out, the entire auto industry was in shambles. The dynamic is completely different today. This time if GM and F collapse, it will entirely be to the benefit of Tesla and Tesla will continually growing and employing more and more od the US auto work force. The optics of the government bailing out two of the 3 US auto makers while the 3rd (Tesla) thrives would be so bad that neither democrat or republican would touch it.

The IRA act was esssntially as much of a bailout that Ford and GM will get. The numbers that Ford is putting out and their targets for 2026 show just how little they’ll actually be able to benefit from the IRA act

 

[bkp_duke]

The idea that Ford and GM get bailed out again is an unfounded fear. Last time they were bailed out, the entire auto industry was in shambles. The dynamic is completely different today. This time if GM and F collapse, it will entirely be to the benefit of Tesla and Tesla will continually growing and employing more and more od the US auto work force. The optics of the government bailing out two of the 3 US auto makers while the 3rd (Tesla) thrives would be so bad that neither democrat or republican would touch it.

The IRA act was esssntially as much of a bailout that Ford and GM will get. The numbers that Ford is putting out and their targets for 2026 show just how little they’ll actually be able to benefit from the IRA act

I hope you are right. I'm just going to point out that we've seen the US Gov do some brain dead things. And the UAW has the Biden admin in their pocket. Stranger things have happened.

 

[philw1776]

I remember GM & Chrysler getting bailed out. Not Ford.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm tired of the media saying Tesla started a price war. That is BS.

We are seeing another advantage Tesla has that I don't hear discussed much in the community. Because Tesla sells direct to the consumer and takes all orders online, Tesla knows its demand at any given instant for any specific locale. This allows them to adjust price and supply anywhere in the world in an immediate reaction to demand fluctuation. No other major automaker can do that so efficiently.

There is no price war. Tesla is simply adjusting its prices to maximize profit on its increased production capacity. Why? Because they can.

I would absolutely say Tesla started a price war….but it was a price war that we here saw coming and one that everyone else including legacy auto should have seen coming. Tesla was ramping up 2 new factories, expanding the other 2. Growth on this level of scale in a 1-2 year span timeframe is unheard of. What will also be unheard of is the efficiency and operating margins Tesla will achieve with such scale and scale of growth.

I guess some people were convinced that Tesla was just going to pocket all the additional profits/margins but the reality was always that when you double your production from 2022 levels in 1.5 years by mid 2024, ASP has to come down materially to open up the TAM.

So yes Tesla started a price war but it’s price war of efficiency and scale. I don’t think Tesla means to intentionally put a bunch of auto makers out of business. But to Tesla, they’re essentially telling all other auto makers “Either keep up with us or fall behind and be left for dead”

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I hope you are right. I'm just going to point out that we've seen the US Gov do some brain dead things. And the UAW has the Biden admin in their pocket. Stranger things have happened.

I think it’s important that Tesla continue to expand in the US and add more jobs. If Tesla opens up all new factories going forward everywhere except the US, then they lose some of that leverage of public opinion. But if Tesla keeps expanding and hiring US workers, it makes it very hard for the government to step in and bail out just Ford and GM

 

[Creekstalker]

I would absolutely say Tesla started a price war….but it was a price war that we here saw coming and one that everyone else including legacy auto should have seen coming. Tesla was ramping up 2 new factories, expanding the other 2. Growth on this level of scale in a 1-2 timeframe is unheard of. What will asp be unheard of is the efficiency and operating margins Tesla will achieve with such scale and scale of growth.

I guess some people were convinced that Tesla was just going to pocket all the additional profits/margins but the reality was always that when you double your production from 2022 levels in 1.5 years by mid 2024, ASP has to come down materially to open up the TAM.

So yes Tesla started a price war but it’s price war of efficiency and scale. I don’t think Tesla means to intentionally put a bunch of auto makers out of business. But to Tesla, they’re essentially telling all other auto makers “Either keep up with us or fall to fall behind”

I would also like to add that, domestically, the US Congress and the President helped start this "price war" by setting the qualifying prices (in the Inflation Reduction Act) at $80k for trucks/SUVs and $55k for cars. Tesla adjusted their prices to comply with the government's stated goals and ironically, it's going to mean pain for Ford, GM, and their employees. I feel bad for the employees.