Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SunCatcher]

Maybe they needed to find a bigger abacus? Come on people, I've got things to do today!

 

[traxila]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1642537324603899905

Pretty sure that production was not actually coming to market in reality but we will see what market thinks.

 

[AndrewZ]

In working to forecast quarterly delivery numbers, you end up learning a lot about the company’s operation. Tesla employs its own forecasters who try to front-run demand vs supply and make moves to ensure things are balanced, and then you have analysts and people like Troy who forecast on the other side.

For example it seems clear some here didn’t know Tesla was planning a dedicated facility in Nevada for semi production and that we shouldn’t expect volume until that facility is done. Troy knew, I think Troy probably knows a lot about the nitty gritty operation and moves being made. Those moves are being made by management who are being informed by their own forecasters.

But Troy probably doesn’t know as much about daily stock price movement, option flows, and max pain. All sources of information are good in developing a complete picture.

 

[wipster]

Probably between 9 and 11 AM EST.

Well it's 8:10 AM PDT and I've only pressed refresh 5 times...

 

[wipster]

That's a misleading headline. The article even explains the RWD would get half the tax credit. The headline makes it seem like it's going to zero.

Wonder how that will affect the leasing price, since that incorporates the tax credit...

 

[mongo]

That's a misleading headline. The article even explains the RWD would get half the tax credit. The headline makes it seem like it's going to zero.

If CATL makes the entire pack, how does it qualify for half credit? Article didn't seem to directly say it would get half, only that it wouldn't get full...

Wonder how that will affect the leasing price, since that incorporates the tax credit...

Leasing is under Commercial Credit, not Clean Vehicle, so no mineral or pack restrictions.

 

[Unpilot]

If CATL makes the entire pack, how does it qualify for half credit? Article didn't seem to directly say it would get half, only that it wouldn't get full...


Leasing is under Commercial Credit, not Clean Vehicle, so no mineral or pack restrictions.

How come Mongo no so much?

 

[Singuy]

If CATL makes the entire pack, how does it qualify for half credit? Article didn't seem to directly say it would get half, only that it wouldn't get full...


Leasing is under Commercial Credit, not Clean Vehicle, so no mineral or pack restrictions.

Well as of 2022 the Model 3 is still ranked #2 as the most American made, and they switched the SR to CATL cells in 2021. This ranking didn't break down SR vs LR. We will see.

https://www.cars.com/american-made-index/

 

[EVMeister]

Can nobody post in this thread until the P&D report is out? F5 finger getting tired and easier to look out for notifications on TMC.

 

[GhostSkater]

If CATL makes the entire pack, how does it qualify for half credit? Article didn't seem to directly say it would get half, only that it wouldn't get full...

We have confirmation that is still the case? They might be assembling packs in the US with cells shipped from China

Same goes for Megapack, cells could been shipping instead of packs

 

[Ogre]

In Joe Tegtmeyers most recent video above, he includes a view inside the South West corner looking at the new General Assembly line #2 & #3 progress. If you look closely from around 7:20 to 9:00 you will see the robot fabricators that have been assembled so far in the second/third floor of this area and ongoing concrete pours on the ground. This is the area that the new lines for the Cybertruck are supposed to be. This is to the west of the staming extension and to the south of the main entry as shown on Joe's building plan below:

View attachment 924128

There still looks to be a decent amount of work to go before these lines will be ready for commissioning. They are also finishing off the isolation foundations for the additional presses and metal folding machines that will be used for the cybertruck. The work is getting much closer but I'd guess still a least a couple of months before they get to full line commissioning and first production.

They have 4 6kt Gigapresses installed, a 9k Ton Gigapress, and space for another 9k Ton Gigapress. That's roughly capacity for castings for 750,000 vehicles per year. Right now the Model Y line is cranking out around 150,000 - 200,000 cars a year (hopefully catching up to Berlin's 250k soon?). They've taken delivery of over 200 large industrial robots (Kuka) and a lot of stamping equipment since shortly before the beginning of this year as well.

Not certain, but I think they are working on more than just getting the Cybertruck line running. Maybe one of: Expansion of Model Y line, creation of Highland line, creation of their first Gen 3 line, a second Cybertruck line?

I'm not sure, but it seems like they have more going on than just getting a single Cybertruck up and running. Not trying to contradict you, but there isn't necessarily a single linear path here. Could be this is a second line being set up.

 

[lafrisbee]

So are the numbers NOT going to be out today?
<---ready to dodge rotten tomatoes

 

[StapleGun]

Numbers are out: Tesla Vehicle Production & Deliveries and Date for Financial Results & Webcast for First Quarter 2023 | Tesla Investor Relations

 

[SunCatcher]

AUSTIN, Texas, April 2, 2023 – In the first quarter, we produced over 440,000 vehicles and delivered over 422,000 vehicles.

 

[DriveMe]

 

[betstarship]

~36% y-o-y increase from q1/2022 to q1/2023 in deliveries

~44% increase y-o-y in production

 

[Stretch2727]

S/X is disappointing with only 10.7K.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I take it a ton of S/X we’re in transit? That’s a huge drop in deliveries from q4 and the widest gap from production to delivery I’ve seen in a while % wise

 

[H Mak]

+36%

What other car company?

 

[wtlloyd]

Rob nailed the production number but off on deliveries.