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I wonder what discount Tesla would get to advertise on Twitter if any.
Twitter boosts content with high engagement.

Musk is easily the biggest, most influential person on Twitter right now and reposts the most interesting posts from Tesla.

Tesla’s Twitter presence is free. Posting adverts there would be nearly pointless, there are already millions of people, owners and non owners, exposed to Teslas messaging on a constant basis.

The ironic thing is many of the haters end up increasing the reach even more.
 
We still have our 2018 Model 3 RWD for long distance travel; Superchargers are so much better than anything else. The ID.4 will primarily be for trips closer to home (and will provide some first hand experience with how the drivers of non-Tesla EV's deal with charging). 🙂
Like my wife's Kona EV; nice around town, keeps her independence. PITA for long distance runs compared to my 2018 TM3 RWD.

OT: just added another 250 TSLA (into my non registered investment account).
 
You’d think, but really there aren’t even crappy workers available; shortage of warm bodies.
Very much the case here and min wage here is 17 bucks an hour (Canadian). It is literally causing production issues in everything from furniture factories to boat manufacturers. A working robot with hood AI would be a good seller here.
 
Honestly, everything else aside, I'd hate having to deal with 2 different car interfaces - inside, outside, parts, accessories, and all.

We always had 2 of the same cars with different colors. Just get inside and drive. I also had done my own maintenance it it was 1/2 the work.
Yup. Constantly getting out of the wife’s Kona and forgetting to turn it off. And walking away without locking it.
 
You’d think, but really there aren’t even crappy workers available; shortage of warm bodies.
The operative word is willing. Plenty of under or unemployed people who could take up these blue collar jobs, but not enough willing.

Might be an interesting twist in 5 or 10 years where demand for blue collar workers causes their pay to be competitive with it even exceed white collar jobs, leading to them becoming desirable and then 10 years later we'll have a glut and pay collapse possibly.

But considering that all the zero skill menial jobs like warehouse worker may get Optimus'd, and AI might eat many of the entry level white collar jobs, there might be competition for the blue collar jobs like there are for white collar ones now, eventually. One upside might be, if blue collar labor costs go up anyways, perhaps choosier employers (because they can) and thus a higher level of competency on average than has been the historical norm for the last half century or so. (Not implying that blue collar is full of incompetents, just that it has trended away from the traditional level of competency that existed when the trades were all highly trained craftsmen).

At least I hope that the people inevitably squeezed out of the job market due to automation and AI are those less skilled. It would be a depressing future where the jobs were taken by incompetents and the skilled left to rot.
 
Don't click, but wanted others to have a laugh as well.

Yahoo - Why Tesla is losing its dominance in the EV market

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The Apple Watch was the best selling watch in the world, back in 2017:
.https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/12/apple-watch-is-now-the-number-one-watch-in-the-world.html

As for advertising the traditional broadcast and print advertising are no longer dominant in any market apart from TV geriatric-targeting products. Tesla has from the beginning mastered 21st century techniques of promotion, eschewing the old ones. Somehow every few days people come up here arguing for those obsolete expensive generic advertising. Of course generic awareness and unaided recall are important, so Tesla has near 100% awareness and unaided recall even in countries they do not service at all. Intention to buy among prospective BEV buyers and home solar is very high too.

Bluntly it is absurd to suggest Tesla should waste money on any such devices. As John Wanamaker famously said more than a century ago, "I know I waste half my advertising budget, the problem is I don't know which half". Now in the 21st century we no longer need waste the half. Now there are highly specific promotional techniques, and Tesla uses them masterfully.

Right now Tesla needs only to produce more of all products, while allowing other manufacturers and media to ensure every potential buyer knows what is happening. In reality even the FUD tells potential BEV and storage products that competitors are terrified, so generates attraction that can be accelerated or deferred by pricing changes and/or increased Point of Sale supply when that is possible.

Why, I wonder, is it so difficult for many of us to understand these things? After all it is now a decade and Tesla has long since understood that:
... charging infrastructure sells cars, especially accentuated when that is opened to non-Tesla vehicles. Seriously, driving Teslas with Superchargers all the way from urban China to Mount Everest Base camp; driving from inside the Norwegian Arctic Circle to your choice of Ankara or Marrakesh and so on...Those generate gigantic PR without any marginal cost to Tesla, PR that nobody else can match.
...awareness of technical features sells cars, specifically all the children who wax rhapsodic over games, strange fart noises, and clever graphics. Do children make their parents buy cars? Cost to generate those future sales and foment wildly favorable attitudes, nearly zero, after all this is paid for by customers.

The list goes on, but many fo us do not see that Tesla wins the five P's of Marketing:
- Product: we all know that one;
-Positioning: by now we know about Plaid, Games, Falcon Wing Doors;
-Placement: no dealers, buy online or at a store with fixed price, all those Superchargers, Destination chargers, do not sell where you have not put Superchargers.
-Promotion: This is Tesla's cleverest trick. New Superchargers generate free publicity, those clever Positioning choices generate enormous word of mouth, among opponents, children fo all ages and buyers.
Price: Nearly all of us seem convinced price is the best tool. Why is Apple Watch best selling watch? Why do Wheaties outsell store brand Wheat Flakes? Why does Starbucks outsell Marcelo's Coffee? For that matter why is LVMH controlled by the world's richest man when all his products are more expensive than many others, and Tesla's CEO the second richest? Neither happened because they view low price as the key to sales. Both understand that Price is a crucial tool, promotional pricing can move inventory timing, careful Placement allows using Price techniques to reach otherwise unreachable markets. LVMH uses judicial product through entities like TJ Maxx, plus an inordinate placement with Duty Free shops.
Tesla is much quieter about their solutions, they sell unwanted trades and damaged products through wholesalers (just like LVMH, by the way). They have end of quarter promotions that generate outsized attention, not least from virulent criticism, that acts to increase sales. That last point is shared with LVMH when they let some excess Fendi or Christian Dior appear on discounters shelves, or Moët & Chandon Dom Perignon shows up with a duty free special.

The pricing strategies that employ those tactics are quite tricky.LVMH is one of the most adept, but Tesla is quite clever too. They regularly clear out inventory when they're ready to make a major improvement, they regularly use added inducements like free Supercharging and/or added features without charge.

The the end Tesla simply does not waste money on conventional wisdom like dealers, mandatory service intervals, or conventional industry incentives. Much less the advertising that really has no tangible benefit apart from making them look like every low margin OEM.
I like this kind of approach. Tesla could use this.
 
At this point, it's a foregone conclusion that earnings growth will come grinding to a halt. We laughed but I guess Adam Jonas was right, 2023 EPS might be under $4.

What PE ratio do you give to a company with no earnings growth, 10?

TSLA with a PE ratio of 10 is $40. Even with a generous 20 it would be $80. This stock literally might have been one of the biggest bubbles of all time.

Maybe it will recover some earnings growth but not for 2 years minimum.

Folks can try to convince themselves that this puts pressure on the competition - sure. But it's also going to put pressure on our bank accounts, somehow even worse than it has been.

Meanwhile Elon has been selling at local max points.

Can you say bagholders?

The financial math does not support this "foregone conclusion". The earnings growth will certainly slow down a bit, but margins have plenty of room to lower some during a recession, and with production up over 2,000,000 for 2023 the earnings (even with lower margins) will still be quite a bit more than $4 per share.


Welp, Troy is estimating ASP this quarter coming in under $47k based on real data (e.g. DMV registrations). This will put EPS probably at or under consensus of $0.85.

And consenus is under $1, so this is not outlandish. If earnings scales with deliveries over course of the year to 1.9 million delivered, EPS will be ~ $3.8 of the year.

While COGs may come down a bit, people are in denial for how much ASP has come down already. Flat YoY earnings means PE ratios of 50 or higher won't be tolerated.
 
And consenus is under $1, so this is not outlandish. If earnings scales with deliveries over course of the year to 1.9 million delivered, EPS will be ~ $3.8 of the year.

While COGs may come down a bit, people are in denial for how much ASP has come down already. Flat YoY earnings means PE ratios of 50 or higher won't be tolerated.
Go ask Nvidia how much of a PE ratio the market will tolerate regardless of earnings.

The next major bull run for Tsla will most likely happen due to some BS catalyst like Elon buying millions of dollars worth of shares and not from any earning report. That's kind of how short term market works.
 
Welp, Troy is estimating ASP this quarter coming in under $47k based on real data (e.g. DMV registrations). This will put EPS probably at or under consensus of $0.85.
How is that possible? Currently, for the US with prices at their lows, if deliveries were 50% Model 3 RWD and 50% Model Y AWD, the cheapest variants available with no options added, the ASP would currently be $46k. But we know there aren't that many Model 3 RWDs sold... Nor are there that many Model Y AWDs...

But maybe I'm not paying enough attention to the prices in the rest of the world... Are they that much cheaper in the rest of the world? Does nobody add an option?
 
How is that possible? Currently, for the US with prices at their lows, if deliveries were 50% Model 3 RWD and 50% Model Y AWD, the cheapest variants available with no options added, the ASP would currently be $46k. But we know there aren't that many Model 3 RWDs sold... Nor are there that many Model Y AWDs...

But maybe I'm not paying enough attention to the prices in the rest of the world... Are they that much cheaper in the rest of the world? Does nobody add an option?
I don't know exact numbers, but prices in China are much lower than in the US. I believe the ASP of the MY in China is <$40K.
 
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How is that possible? Currently, for the US with prices at their lows, if deliveries were 50% Model 3 RWD and 50% Model Y AWD, the cheapest variants available with no options added, the ASP would currently be $46k. But we know there aren't that many Model 3 RWDs sold... Nor are there that many Model Y AWDs...

But maybe I'm not paying enough attention to the prices in the rest of the world... Are they that much cheaper in the rest of the world? Does nobody add an option?
As far as I'm aware, the only place where ASP is significantly lower is China. And to clarify, just what's sold in China because Shanghai made 3/Y's go for much higher ASP in Europe/Australia/etc..

Even with China sales being materially lower ASP, still hard to see how it would offset much higher ASP in North America, Europe, and all other countries. If what Tesla said on the Q4 earnings call turns out to be true, then ASP shouldn't decline hardly at all from Q4. You also have to remember that for Q4, at least 50% of the deliveries happened AFTER the price cuts in the last 2-3 weeks of Q4 so in effect, the price cuts of Q1 were already mostly accounted for.
 
Welp, Troy is estimating ASP this quarter coming in under $47k based on real data (e.g. DMV registrations). This will put EPS probably at or under consensus of $0.85.

And consenus is under $1, so this is not outlandish. If earnings scales with deliveries over course of the year to 1.9 million delivered, EPS will be ~ $3.8 of the year.

While COGs may come down a bit, people are in denial for how much ASP has come down already. Flat YoY earnings means PE ratios of 50 or higher won't be tolerated.
How are the mega pack registrations coming along
 
How is that possible? Currently, for the US with prices at their lows, if deliveries were 50% Model 3 RWD and 50% Model Y AWD, the cheapest variants available with no options added, the ASP would currently be $46k. But we know there aren't that many Model 3 RWDs sold... Nor are there that many Model Y AWDs...

But maybe I'm not paying enough attention to the prices in the rest of the world... Are they that much cheaper in the rest of the world? Does nobody add an option?
You can see the current China prices for the Model 3 and the Model Y here: Tesla Significantly Cut Model 3 And Model Y Prices In China

To answer your question, China prices are around $5k-$8k lower than the US equivalent, and I'd imagine most Chinese consumers would purchase the lowest cost options.

I think this quarterly earnings report presents a buying opportunity. ASP has come down by $5k since last quarter and I doubt global COGS has come down by nearly that much. The IRA credits apply only to the units sold in the US, I believe.
 
You can see the current China prices for the Model 3 and the Model Y here: Tesla Significantly Cut Model 3 And Model Y Prices In China

To answer your question, China prices are around $5k-$8k lower than the US equivalent, and I'd imagine most Chinese consumers would purchase the lowest cost options.
The counter to this though is that most of Q1's delivery growth came from non-China deliveries. Specifically, US deliveries increase, and US deliveries actually have FSD options attached to them that is now fully recognized FSD revenue verses pre-Q4 being only 50% recognized. This dynamic is also why ASP over the course of 2023 won't be nearly the catastrophe that some are predicting. Most of the delivery growth will come from non-China sales in 2023....thus actually improving ASP....even if other countries see price cuts throughout 2023.

Point being, it's rather useless to make any sort of guess on ASP for Q1. There's simply too many variables. Once we have Q1 numbers, it will make the rest of the year much easier to estimate
 
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