Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zextraterrestrial]

While an earnings beat would be lovely, what I really want to hear during the earnings call are the sweet words “we project margins to increase as the year progresses.”

That would destroy the bear narrative.

Or CT deliveries start in May

 

[EverettRuess]

Lightweight.

If Rep Goldman can ignore Elon, I can too.

 

[Zero CO2]

Regarding margins, hopefully pros should outweigh cons:

CONS:
- price cuts

PROS:
- increased efficiencies of manufacturing (more giga castings, greater use of robots, less labour costs)
- increased economies of scale
- GF Berlin and GF Austin scaling up production:
- - eliminated import duties for many deliveries
- - reduced transportation expenses for many deliveries
- country exchange rate changes with weakening USD

another big PRO .. increased Market Share .. resulting in ...

• supercharger fees
• monthly subscriptions
• bigger FSD fleet
• more Tesla's sell more Tesla's

As others here on TMC stated, even if a beat on margins, another red herring would be pulled out of the sea as reason not to invest in Tesla. I would expect TSLA price to be range bound between $150 and $225 until such time as Cybertruck manufacturing commences in earnest. Any short term bets on TSLA are a fools errand.
View attachment 929524

 

[Krugerrand]

That's counter to his very recent comments about how AI should come from a public company so that people can "vote" by buying shares.

Yeah. Funny how life can be conflicting and complicated.

In a perfect world, public AI company that is fully transparent, doesn’t have false or biased media spews, is regulated by a non-corruptible government agency, and whose stock isn’t manipulated by crooks.

So like; never going to happen.

Elon will try the best way he can and knows how. It’s a toss up for me which happens first; AI decimates humanity or a zombie apocalypse. We all know I’m rooting for the zombies.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

another big PRO .. increased Market Share .. resulting in ...

• supercharger fees
• monthly subscriptions
• bigger FSD fleet
• more Tesla's sell more Tesla

* Continuing rapid growth because in order to go from big to huge, the company and all of it's suppliers first have to become very big.

 

[LodiEVFan]

I'd like to think so but then why did Musk just start a separate AI company from Tesla?

Isn't FSD AI? A very sophisticated AI? Not being critical of EM's move, but he already has an AI company.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

This is only for new V4 SCs. There are a lot of V2/3 SCs out there that will not be replaced for a long time.

Maybe. But the dozen or so superchargers with magic docks right now are all V3’s as far as I know.

 

[bkp_duke]

Isn't FSD AI? A very sophisticated AI? Not being critical of EM's move, but he already has an AI company.

The car itself isn't really AI.

The supercomputer that keeps teaching FSD how to drive (i.e. back at Tesla's HQ) is an AI engine, yes. It's a very narrow AI engine, but an AI engine nonetheless.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'd like to think so but then why did Musk just start a separate AI company from Tesla?

Maybe X is separate so he could license Dojo tech and create a new revenue stream for Tesla without bogging down the FSD or Robot focus. I hope he charges a bunch for the license agreement, in perpetuity!

 

[NicoV]

another big PRO .. increased Market Share .. resulting in ...

• supercharger fees
• monthly subscriptions
• bigger FSD fleet
• more Tesla's sell more Tesla's

What about Inflation Reduction Act subsidies for US built batteries? That also starts in Q1 isn’t it?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Maybe X is separate so he could license Dojo tech and create a new revenue stream for Tesla without bogging down the FSD or Robot focus. I hope he charges a bunch for the license agreement, in perpetuity!

There's many different facets of AI rght now and for at least the next 5 years, they need to be different companies. What ChatGP and that whole focus compared to the AI used for FSD and general purposes AI for Optimus have nothing to do with each other and can't share code/logic.

Tesla AI engineers can't just apply what they're doing currently for FSD/Optimus to what other companies are doing in other spaces of AI

 

[SOULPEDL]

Charging just expanded about 3x at this one SC location off I-10 in Cal. Tesla employees handing out free water and directing traffic. Zoo.

And 2 megapacks on trailers I assume are buffering power demand. Modeled after a mini city? Could be a case for excess wind region like Texas and charges at night for dirt cheap. Making money AND buffering their local grid…. Maybe, right?

 

[SOULPEDL]

There's many different facets of AI rght now and for at least the next 5 years, they need to be different companies. What ChatGP and that whole focus compared to the AI used for FSD and general purposes AI for Optimus have nothing to do with each other and can't share code/logic.

Tesla AI engineers can't just apply what they're doing currently for FSD/Optimus to what other companies are doing in other spaces of AI

Agree, different mission as well. But wouldn't hardware be the same? Different learning and algos only. Teach the old dog new tricks? More revenue for Tesla!

 

[Nocturnal]

Charging just expanded about 3x at this one SC location off I-10 in Cal. Tesla employees handing out free water and directing traffic. Zoo.

And 2 megapacks on trailers I assume are buffering power demand. Modeled after a mini city? Could be a case for excess wind region like Texas and charges at night for dirt cheap. Making money AND buffering their local grid…. Maybe, right?

1. Install megapacks near chargers.
2. Packs buffer demand which decreases Tesla's costs.
3. Use pricing to encourage charging to happen over non-peak hours.
4. Sell excess capacity back to grid during peak times at a profit.
5. Profit and help make the grid cleaner.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Agree, different mission as well. But wouldn't hardware be the same? Different learning and algos only. Teach the old dog new tricks? More revenue for Tesla!

That really depends on Dojo and how that's going because the back end hardware that runs the brain can be incredibly valued when coupled with the code. Tesla has been quiet on it for a while and we don't know how much of FSD has been switched over to Dojo.

If Dojo reaches it's potential and the hardware becomes a viable hardware alternate to say Nvidia to be sold to other companies. If Tesla was able to get to general AI computing for say Optimus then the combination of the code + the specialized hardware to run the code becomes insanely valuable.

Will be a couple years to really see how it all shakes out.

 

[Cosmacelf]

That's counter to his very recent comments about how AI should come from a public company so that people can "vote" by buying shares.

There’s a difference between what is ideal and what is possible. Right now, shoehorning an AGI company into Tesla would be a drag on earnings. X.com can take it on, and when/if it works, he can spin out into an IPO.

 

[Hiline]

1. Install megapacks near chargers.
2. Packs buffer demand which decreases Tesla's costs.
3. Use pricing to encourage charging to happen over non-peak hours.
4. Sell excess capacity back to grid during peak times at a profit.
5. Profit and help make the grid cleaner.

6. Expose megapacks to other potential users and drive sales

 

[Cosmacelf]

Charging just expanded about 3x at this one SC location off I-10 in Cal. Tesla employees handing out free water and directing traffic. Zoo.

And 2 megapacks on trailers I assume are buffering power demand. Modeled after a mini city? Could be a case for excess wind region like Texas and charges at night for dirt cheap. Making money AND buffering their local grid…. Maybe, right?View attachment 929543

Are the trailers hooked to the grid? Which location? Maybe Tesla is doing a test.

 

[Buckminster]

Spiritual successor to the snake charger:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1648227355603656706

Don't worry, Optimus will plug in your car and then deliver a frozen margarita to your robotaxi soon.

 

[Hiline]

There are still 40 Model 3 RWD units in Greater LA inventory. What should Tesla do to clear this inventory, now that half the credit is gone?

Not gone yet. End of day tomorrow.

Still 40 units in inventory today. The model no longer qualifies for the full credit.