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So wary about discussing FSD in this not-an-FSD-thread for investors where FSD is gradually being acknowledged as the most important thing for investors to think about as margins are being compressed on the vehicles themselves with the hopes of getting as many on roads as possible so an OTA update can eventually activate robotaxis and unlock massively increased utilization and high-margin revenue.

Not that autonomy hasn’t long been the biggest driver of profitability in the models from organizations like ARK.


Anyways, whats today’s Max Pain number?
 
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Feels to me that the financials are 100% due to the macro and Tesla's decisions on how to proceed through the macroeconomic environment. Tesla is right in the middle of massive scale increase towards ~2M vehicles this year, but the current macro environment isn't ideal for that kind of expansion. Tesla could curtail their aggressive expansion goals until the macro improves which might make for a "better" balance sheet, but clearly Elon and team chose to stick with the mission and scale as quickly as humanly possible. It aligns with the mission, but not necessarily with wallstreet. Tesla doesn't really care about Wallstreet, certainly in the short term. This view is brilliant if you believe that full autonomy is near term, only months away from realization....which contrary to most, Elon believes. Proceeding full speed ahead with expansion efforts, while the product demand softens due to the macro is a calculated risk. Elon's calculated risk record is pretty damn good in my book...
 
Thus, we should encourage good competitors, Elon keeps telling us that, but somehow many of us still want all the non-Tesla OEM's to fail.
That is contrary to the mission!
I used to be a bit of a racing fan. In theory nobody wants these guys to crash and get hurt at 90+ miles per hour, people literally die. But crashes are part of the spectacle.

It's not that I want major automakers to crash and burn. But we're watching the worlds largest economic train wreck in slow motion right now. This was set in motion 5+ years ago and there is little anyone can do to change it.

About the only way these companies survive is if they do something like what Musk did to Twitter. Not talking about the politics here or the philosophical side, talking about the way he ruthlessly dismembered the company. The only reason Musk was able to do that is because he took Twitter private. That isn't happening here.

I see GM investing a billion dollars in developing a new engine platform and it's pretty clear the CEO is riding in the caboose and doesn't know that there is a bridge out ahead and the train is going too fast to stop. About the only CEO who seems clued in is perhaps Nissan's CEO. Even the ones who do, the ones who push for the sort of change needed get fired. Look at Diess for example.

I don't "Hope" legacy auto is going to fail, but I can't see a path where most of them survive. And since I can't stop it, I'm just going to enjoy the spectacle.
 
This argument is easily decided: Tesla will offer FSD leasing arrangements for Tesla car owners. Currently, it's just a 1 month rental. But you can easily imagine 'Continuous Monthly' (billed to your TeslaX acct), 'Weekend' (3-day packages), 'My Trip' (specific route and time, to include Supercharging of course!), and MOST IMPORTANTLY, the 'I had too much to drink/420, take me home for 20 BUX!' button which also locks out the steering whee! :D



You clearly do not understand the SCALE of the opportunity with a functional robotaxi fleet: this is not to get 'margins back up', pfft! This is 5X the current value of all Automakers combined by 2027. Tasha Keeney of ARK Invest emphasized just that last night after the Q1 results: (by the way folks like CYBERLFT are already using FSD for ride-sharing, as inevitably as the tide coming in)


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Chin up, this too shall pass! (unlike a Waymo taxi stuck behind an SFO city bus) :D

In the long run, subsidizing auto sales with software is great, but even if Tesla solved autonomy this year, it could be another couple years or more before the regulators approve it for general use, so I think we're looking at a minimum of 2025 before you can take a road trip and sleep in your car or watch a movie while it drives. I don't see mass adoption of FSD until it is truly a digital chauffeur where you don't need anyone in the driver's seat.

If that is Tesla's plan - flood the market and rake in FSD $$ in future, that future is not coming for at least a couple more years.
 
I think true FSD is closer than most think. Tesla didn't use neural networks to make driving decisions until January. It's been only 3 months, and according to user reviews this new system is already leaps and bounds ahead of the old system. If a 3-month old system is already this powerful, with additional training data it can leapfrog over any other autonomous driving system by the end of the year. I think the reason Tesla was confident enough about FSD to raise the purchase price from $12k to $15k late last year was due to the anticipated functionality of neural network-based decision making. The confirmation yesterday that FSD was going to run fine on HW3 hinted that Tesla knows that they're close. I am one who never takes Elon Musk's statements at face value, but I think there is a legitimate possibility of at least something close to a true FSD system, in the next 8 months.

If I'm wrong, TSLA will be stuck in the $150-$200 range through the end of the year because the economy is not going to turn around by then. If I'm right, the 420 party will be right around the corner.
 
I also think that history will show, regardless of any other surviving OEMs, that Tesla single-handedly did do it all by themselves.

As an example; Who told the world that battery production was going to be essential and that many new battery factories needed to be built? Who started that off before they even had the money to do it? And who dragged an existing battery mfger kicking and screaming along with them and subsequently turned that part of that company’s business back into a profit center?

There are dozens upon dozens of additional examples like that, of Tesla dragging, pulling or forcing other companies to be successful. WTF even!

Yeah, Tesla is in fact doing it all by themselves.

Not all, just the ones that don’t deserve to survive. So that’s most, but not all. I can’t help my fairness genetics...
Did anybody suggest all should be saved? I hope no capitalist would ever suggest such.
We probably all have a list of probable survivors and others even now on life support which oddly die quickly without strong external support.

Tesla doing it all by themselves? Even the most arrogant Teslaphile knows better than that. As Elon has repeatedly said. Tesla would not have survived had not Toyota given them the Fremont factory for the modest prove that Toyota itself funded and bought the original RAV4 EV drivetrain from Tesla. Then the Model S would not have happened without Mercedes Benz that bought Model B EV drivetrain for them and provided switchgear, following system, suspension and other supplier help. Then there is the US government loan.

Those are only three. Elon has more examples.

Truthfully without Tesla and Elon most of EV development would have been much slower, and without Elon Tesla as we know it would not have happened.

Obviously all three of those did very, very well from their arrangements with Tesla.

That is quite different than "...doing it all by themselves".

Even now Tesla thrives because of many factors including cooperative governments making new factories easier, suppliers providing crucial elements.

We must know that the Chinese government and Shanghai government gave crucial help to Tesla. The Brandenburg government does too, as do those of multiple parts of Texas.

Tesla and Elon are heroic! They're crucial. By exaggerating their achievements we diminish their accomplishments. Were we discussing SpaceX we'd need to add NASA, without their support SpaceX would not have survived.

So, absolutely much of those enabling figures and to be kicked, cajoled and tricked into cooperating. Tesla and Elon deserve credit for that too.

But no, Tesla's not doing it by themselves. Elon would never say such a thing. He knows better.
 

Something to think about, I ...ehmm... think.
Many analogies in this thread on how powerful FSD Computer in every car is ... I was waiting for a punchline like:

IBM’s Deep Blue AI supercomputer made history when it defeated chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov. This was the first time that Kasparov conceded defeat in his career. This computer is 60,000 times the power of the IBM Deep Blue supercomputer ... and still the damn wipers are driving me crazy :)