Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

There have always been what ifs. There will always be what ifs. Either you believe the company can or you believe they cannot. It’s really that simple. As simple as is was over a decade ago before Model S hit production.

Invest accordingly. Don’t know what else to tell you. If you see a truck coming while attempting to cross the street, stay on the curb.

Tesla will survive until FSD comes to fruition. They literally told you that. But you need to get it out of your head that they’re not depending on FSD. Again, you’ve been point blank told by the CEO that FSD is crucial and they are banking on it.

Invest accordingly. Simple. If you can’t afford to lose your investment in TSLA, then get out. If you don’t like the direction the company is going in, get out. If you don’t think they can achieve their goal, get out. If you’re against the mission, get out. If the risk is more than you want to deal with, get out. If you don’t want to deal with the WS shenanigans, get out.

Then you know what you must do for your piece of mind and financial situation. Why are you fighting it?

Because unlike you I do not believe FSD is the sole single lynchpin upon which the entire company of Tesla relies on.

Tesla Auto can be profitable without FSD. Tesla Energy is ramping and can be comparable to Tesla Auto in revenues and profits down the road. Tesla HVAC is very likely coming in the "near" future. Tesla Bot has enormous potential and could very easily become the largest revenue driver in all of Tesla, more than all the other parts of the company combined, and yes even MORE potential than FSD.

I feel there is much, MUCH more to the Tesla story than FSD and I wish Elon would stop using it as a crutch to explain away uncomfortable things during earnings reports. Elon predicts many things which never come to pass or are greatly delayed or even less than he originally envisioned them to be. While I respect him very much, I also take his words into the context of his historical accuracy. He has been stating FSD is "right around the corner" for over half a decade now and he's been wrong. What if he is wrong about FSD being so monumentally profitable too?

I'm not fighting anything, I simply have a different opinion on the present (and future) of the company than you do Krugerrand.

 

[Krugerrand]

Thus, we should encourage good competitors, Elon keeps telling us that, but somehow many of us still want all the non-Tesla OEM's to fail.
That is contrary to the mission!

Not all, just the ones that don’t deserve to survive. So that’s most, but not all. I can’t help my fairness genetics.

I also think that history will show, regardless of any other surviving OEMs, that Tesla single-handedly did do it all by themselves.

As an example; Who told the world that battery production was going to be essential and that many new battery factories needed to be built? Who started that off before they even had the money to do it? And who dragged an existing battery mfger kicking and screaming along with them and subsequently turned that part of that company’s business back into a profit center?

There are dozens upon dozens of additional examples like that, of Tesla dragging, pulling or forcing other companies to be successful. WTF even!

Yeah, Tesla is in fact doing it all by themselves.

 

[MP3Mike]

In Europe practically all V3 chargers are open to non-Teslas.

On the call yesterday Tesla said about 50% of them are open to non-Teslas. I wouldn't call that "practically all."

Or are half of the Superchargers V2 and they aren't open to others? (Are any V2s open to all?)

 

[Krugerrand]

Sure would have been nice if they hadn't been turned off to that level to begin with though.

Meh. People are fickle and have short memories.

 

[betstarship]

Maybe Elon will be less bored now that he finally saw a rocket blow up from SpaceX

 

[30seconds]

It's very odd to me that WS continues to discount Tesla's achievements with this downward stock price action.

Say one day everyone wakes up and all cars are Teslas...will WS still say "see....margins blah blah blah".

This *sugar* is tiring.

Compared to Q1 2022
- Automotive revenue +17%
- Operating income -18%
- EPS -12%

This plus Elon & Zach commentary to expect more of the same in the next couple of quarters means that total profitability / EPS isn't likely to increase anytime soon.

With FSD & Energy the guidance was that meaningful impact is in the future. Elon said FSD this year, but since he has been saying that for a few years now I'm pretty sure WS is on wait and see mode.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Currently FSD costs $15,000 to buy, it will likely cost more once it is Level 5. How many normal everyday people will be willing to pay that price for software when it only does something they can do themselves and already do every day (driving)? I know the argument is "people will pay it happily" but my hunch is they won't because it's just too expensive for a luxury

This argument is easily decided: Tesla will offer FSD leasing arrangements for Tesla car owners. Currently, it's just a 1 month rental. But you can easily imagine 'Continuous Monthly' (billed to your TeslaX acct), 'Weekend' (3-day packages), 'My Trip' (specific route and time, to include Supercharging of course!), and MOST IMPORTANTLY, the 'I had too much to drink/420, take me home for 20 BUX!' button which also locks out the steering whee!

Whenever I hear Elon (or anyone) claim FSD is our Ace in the Hole to get margins back up again I shudder, because that is both an extremely long term and uncertain outlook.

You clearly do not understand the SCALE of the opportunity with a functional robotaxi fleet: this is not to get 'margins back up', pfft! This is 5X the current value of all Automakers combined by 2027. Tasha Keeney of ARK Invest emphasized just that last night after the Q1 results: (by the way folks like CYBERLFT are already using FSD for ride-sharing, as inevitably as the tide coming in)

Tasha Keeney on Twitter: "When Elon says Tesla is the only automaker that could sell cars for zero margin today and makeup for it in autonomy earnings later, here's why that matters. Autonomous mobility platform operators will be a Goliath in the future auto value chain, worth much more than OEMs alone. https://t.co/kPvIDWQgz0" / Twitter​

Chin up, this too shall pass! (unlike a Waymo taxi stuck behind an SFO city bus)

 

[Unpilot]

I think Elon's goal is to piss off every last human....then board a ship to Mars with 100 cyberbot's and just leave.

After reading the last few days post's I can't say I blame him.

 

[larmor]

Also, given the sentiment here and in the market about TSLA, I strongly advise that you cancel your cybertruck reservation as soon as possible and also tell your friends to do the same.
This is advice.

 

[betstarship]

After the Tesla ramp up of 2020-2022, Starlink, Starship launch, Moon trip this year, etc. I just want to share this video:

 

[JRP3]

What!?

They literally are building more cars every quarter. They are literally selling more cars every quarter.

Sure, along with a number of substantial price cuts that have negatively impacted margins. I don't think they would have chosen to hit margins that hard if they didn't feel the need.

 

[Singuy]

Wallstreet analysts price targets

https://twitter.com/x/status/1648995927552581632

 

[jerry33]

On the call yesterday Tesla said about 50%, or maybe they said 60%?, of them are open to non-Teslas. I wouldn't call that "practically all."

Or are half of the Superchargers V2 and they aren't open to others? (Are any V2s open to all?)

Isn't that the world-wide number? Far less in North America. I haven't heard of any V2 being open to all.

 

[Mengy]

This arguement is easily decided: Tesla will offer leasing arrangements for Tesla car owners. Currently, it's just the 1 month rental. But you can easily imagine 'Continuosly Monthly' (billed to you TeslaX acct), 'Weekend' (3-day packages), 'My Trip' (specific route and time, to include Supercharging of course!), and MOST IMPORTANTLY, the 'I had too much to drink/420, take me home for 20 BUX!' button which also locks out the steering whee!



You clearly do not understand the SCALE of the opportunity with a functional robotaxi fleet: this is not to get 'margins back up', pfft! This is 5X the current value of all Automakers combined by 2027. Tasha Keeney of ARK Invest emphasized just that last night after the Q1 results: (by the way folks like CYBERLFT are already using FSD for ride-sharing, as inevitably as the tide coming in)

Tasha Keeney on Twitter: "When Elon says Tesla is the only automaker that could sell cars for zero margin today and makeup for it in autonomy earnings later, here's why that matters. Autonomous mobility platform operators will be a Goliath in the future auto value chain, worth much more than OEMs alone. https://t.co/kPvIDWQgz0" / Twitter​

Chin up, this too shall pass! (unlike a Waymo taxi stuck behind an SFO city bus)

I agree Level 5 FSD is a huge financial opportunity. Eventually. My feeling is reaping that opportunity will take 5-10 years after the point where FSD is solved.

And unlike Elon I do not feel FSD will be solved this year. I also think Ark Invest is overly eager on their FSD prediction timelines, but it's an understandable marketing point for their funds. The progress on FSD is promising but slow and gradual, and I feel solving the trailing nines of FSD will take longer than Elon keeps predicting it will every year over. And if the financial benefits of solving FSD might also take longer than many expect, then relying on it to prop up margins for TSLA seems dubious to me.

Look I'm no FSD expert and I hope my fears are stupid and unfounded, BUT in the meantime I simply hate Elon constantly relying on FSD hopes to explain away uncomfortable things. That's all.

 

[Krugerrand]

Because unlike you I do not believe FSD is the sole single lynchpin upon which the entire company of Tesla relies on.

So? Elon is lying? He’s just saying without FSD Tesla is virtually a zero because -

Tesla Auto can be profitable without FSD. Tesla Energy is ramping and can be comparable to Tesla Auto in revenues and profits down the road. Tesla HVAC is very likely coming in the "near" future. Tesla Bot has enormous potential and could very easily become the largest revenue driver in all of Tesla, more than all the other parts of the company combined, and yes even MORE potential than FSD.

You are not listening. Elon said HVAC is currently a back burner project. They’ve got other fish to fry right now (like FSD). But you’re thinking it’s coming in the near future!? And you think BOT is going to beat FSD to market?

Again, you are not listening to what the company is saying. You are projecting your wants and that is why you will never be content with Tesla’s performance or direction.

I feel there is much, MUCH more to the Tesla story than FSD and I wish Elon would stop using it as a crutch to explain away uncomfortable things during earnings reports. Elon predicts many things which never come to pass or are greatly delayed or even less than he originally envisioned them to be. While I respect him very much, I also take his words into the context of his historical accuracy. He has been stating FSD is "right around the corner" for over half a decade now and he's been wrong. What if he is wrong about FSD being so monumentally profitable too?

More projection.

I don’t think he’s wrong about the outcome and I already inherently know that the path to the outcome isn’t an unencumbered straight line. So, I’m not bothered by the extra time it’s taking.

That’s why I’m invested. Why are you?

I'm not fighting anything, I simply have a different opinion on the present (and future) of the company than you do Krugerrand.

You are fighting everything. You’re repeatedly saying what you want the company to do and the company keeps responding by doing and saying something else.

Maybe try not having an opinion. Stick to the facts and invest according to them.

Fact: Elon is all in FSD, therefore Tesla is all in FSD.
Fact: HVAC is currently a back burner project.

 

[MP3Mike]

Isn't that the world-wide number?

Nope, he specifically said about 50% of the Supercharger in Europe were open.

DREW: Yeah, so as you may have seen, we opened our first V4 post in Europe and our Magic Dock post in North America in Q1. And that is indicative of the direction we’re heading with universal compatibility for all vehicles no matter where the charge board is, et cetera, in all major markets. And we’re going to continue to roll out those sort of improved offerings as we build new stations. We’re always balancing our ability to serve our own customers with our ability to serve new customers when doing that. I think we’ve been able to balance it rather well, for example, in Europe, 50% of all of our supercharging stations are open to all EVs, and we’ve been able to do that without any increase in wait times at all, for anybody. So, we’re going to continue to take a similar approach as we do this in North America and China over the coming quarters.

In the US currently only ~12 sites are open to non-Teslas. (Out of ~2k.) But from what they have said they will only be opening about 10% of the sites in the US.

 

[Ogre]

I bet you if Tesla cuts prices enough all of those “never Tesla” will jump on a Tesla. “Never” should not be literally interpreted.

This has already happened. People I know who were hard against Tesla and had a LYRIQ preordered, almost instantly switched gears when there was a $20k price gap.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

On the call yesterday Tesla said about 50% of them are open to non-Teslas. I wouldn't call that "practically all."

Or are half of the Superchargers V2 and they aren't open to others? (Are any V2s open to all?)

Yup in the UK some V2 chargers are open to all. Quiet ones like Dundee.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Wallstreet analysts price targets

https://twitter.com/x/status/1648995927552581632

These were all on the lower end already, it will be interesting to see what the higher end recalibrate to.

 

[NicoV]

On the call yesterday Tesla said about 50% of them are open to non-Teslas. I wouldn't call that "practically all."

Or are half of the Superchargers V2 and they aren't open to others? (Are any V2s open to all?)

V1 and V2 don’t seem to support non-Tesla’s (I‘m not aware of any open to non-Teslas), so only V3 and V4 are open to non-Teslas.
EDIT: Apparently some V2‘s in the UK are open to non-Teslas, as mentioned above.
And practically all V3 and V4 superchargers are open to non-Teslas (I specifically used ’V3’ in combination with ‘practically all’ in my original post).
Tesla doesn’t seem to open new superchargers anymore without opening them to non-Teslas so that 50% will keep increasing.
EDIT2: Note that in Europe there’s no difference in the supercharger hardware, it’s all CCS2 natively, so why would Tesla not open them for non-Tesla’s?