Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[insaneoctane]

Not to over simplify ....but, due to price elasticity being a real thing, by Tesla committing to significantly ramp production rates, aren't they, by definition, committed to lowering the price per the PED curve?

Certainly we can argue about what the PED curve slope/shape is and how the current macro environment is affecting it, but Tesla has all the real data and they have it all real-time. As long as they are committed to materially moving to the right on this PED curve (which they are), prices must come down. Tesla has said margins be damned because they currently have industry leading margins and want to double quantities....again and again.

 

[Dutchie]

Just watched Overtime from Real Time with Bill Maher. He mentioned that Elon will be his guest on next week’s Friday show. Will be interesting.

(start at 2:45 mark)

 

[EVDRVN]

Can't wait to see Elon's interview on MSNBC next Wed. /S

 

[navguy12]

I think what you want is better called dangerous cruise mode....or maybe dangerous legacy cruise mode

Had to give you the disagree because with the current TACC (et al) state of affairs, when someone is tailgating me on a highway while using TACC (et al), my foot is settled on the accelerator ensuring that a phantom braking episode doesn’t end in a disaster.

Until 2018, I could confidently use dumb cruise control while some idiot was tailgating me without the need to have my foot hover on the accelerator because I knew that my car would, under 100% of circumstances, maintain my current set speed until I made it do otherwise.

 

[stef]

Not to over simplify ....but, due to price elasticity being a real thing, by Tesla committing to significantly ramp production rates, aren't they, by definition, committed to lowering the price per the PED curve?

View attachment 930881

Certainly we can argue about what the PED curve slope/shape is and how the current macro environment is affecting it, but Tesla has all the real data and they have it all real-time. As long as they are committed to materially moving to the right on this PED curve (which they are), prices must come down. Tesla has said margins be damned because they currently have industry leading margins and want to double quantities....again and again.

I’m afraid the reality is that Tesla doesn’t have all the data, and this is the core of the very heated debate going on these recent months between the pro advert and the no advert camps.
Yes they have the best data on production and orders vs price, but are missing the very critical piece of info of how much orders can be affected by things like advertising (word used very broadly here, but you get the point).
They are giving up 1 real variable of the equation, just claiming that’s not important.
By refusing to give it a try and generate this data, nobody will never know for sure how important this is and if there could be a more effective way to shift the demand curve compared to cutting prices for a given production level.
Without this critical piece of the puzzle, the debate will never be settled and there can be only opinions.
But, despite what the management claim, they don’t have the data to convince the skeptics… and sadly (for the agnostic and moderate investor) they don’t seem to care to find out.

 

[phoggy123]

I am in the market for a Model 3 as a work commuter car. In my town there is a 2022 M3P without FSD and ~8K miles. I reached out to them as the price 55999. A new M3P in their spec (black with white interior) is 55490, But factoring in the tax credit its 48K. I explained this to them but they said there is no way they could sell it for 48K as their cost far exceeds this. I have to imagine that if you are taking in a Tesla on trade these places will probably not even bother anymore and if they do, they will low ball the trade in.

Tesla taking in trades obviously has an advantage, in that they can give FSD (perceived 15K of value) and essentially price the car at what a new one would cost. The reason I bring this up, is that Tesla is messing up so many things the established brands and dealers took for granted. Most of them have no idea FSD is a thing so they either dont highlight it or get mixed up with Autopilot versus Full Self Driving hardware.

This particular dealer because of the price cuts and tax credits is going to take a bath on this vehicle in either losing money at sale or sitting on it and paying high interest via their financing floorplan for months. They will likely send this to auction where it will fail to sell. I tried highlighting my math that they will need to be at or below 48K to get this sold to which I was scoffed at.

If I were this guys manger and he feeds him my info I would consider just cutting bait, but they probably won't because lets face it dealers have become used to getting their way in the last 3 years. Just another reminder that the old guard was never prepared for this company.

I am likely going to get a used Model 3 Base with EA from Tesla that carries another 1yr/10K miles in warranty while I wait patiently for the Cybertruck.

 

[nativewolf]

The SP500 has outperformed ARK since Cath started her Tesla prognostications

She is a loon

 

[nativewolf]

I am in the market for a Model 3 as a work commuter car. In my town there is a 2022 M3P without FSD and ~8K miles. I reached out to them as the price 55999. A new M3P in their spec (black with white interior) is 55490, But factoring in the tax credit its 48K. I explained this to them but they said there is no way they could sell it for 48K as their cost far exceeds this. I have to imagine that if you are taking in a Tesla on trade these places will probably not even bother anymore and if they do, they will low ball the trade in.

Tesla taking in trades obviously has an advantage, in that they can give FSD (perceived 15K of value) and essentially price the car at what a new one would cost. The reason I bring this up, is that Tesla is messing up so many things the established brands and dealers took for granted. Most of them have no idea FSD is a thing so they either dont highlight it or get mixed up with Autopilot versus Full Self Driving hardware.

This particular dealer because of the price cuts and tax credits is going to take a bath on this vehicle in either losing money at sale or sitting on it and paying high interest via their financing floorplan for months. They will likely send this to auction where it will fail to sell. I tried highlighting my math that they will need to be at or below 48K to get this sold to which I was scoffed at.

If I were this guys manger and he feeds him my info I would consider just cutting bait, but they probably won't because lets face it dealers have become used to getting their way in the last 3 years. Just another reminder that the old guard was never prepared for this company.

I am likely going to get a used Model 3 Base with EA from Tesla that carries another 1yr/10K miles in warranty while I wait patiently for the Cybertruck.

I have to think lots and lots of people are going to be quite upside down on cars bought last year. New prices dropped and then a tax credit dropping them more.

 

[Singuy]

I’m afraid the reality is that Tesla doesn’t have all the data, and this is the core of the very heated debate going on these recent months between the pro advert and the no advert camps.
Yes they have the best data on production and orders vs price, but are missing the very critical piece of info of how much orders can be affected by things like advertising (word used very broadly here, but you get the point).
They are giving up 1 real variable of the equation, just claiming that’s not important.
By refusing to give it a try and generate this data, nobody will never know for sure how important this is and if there could be a more effective way to shift the demand curve compared to cutting prices for a given production level.
Without this critical piece of the puzzle, the debate will never be settled and there can be only opinions.
But, despite what the management claim, they don’t have the data to convince the skeptics… and sadly (for the agnostic and moderate investor) they don’t seem to care to find out.

Except they do. Besides Tesla secretly having Twitter pushing out engagements that is measurable, they also tracked google trend and sales generated from the superbowl ad. I believe the only reason why they are not advertising right now is because someone did some number crunching and the ROI is worse than them lowering the price.

They have a marketing department and they are constantly calculating the ROI by either paying net profit out to generate more orders from existing TAM of customers vs dropping prices to give access to a bigger TAM of customers.

Fact is, at the price class they were at, they already hit over 35% of the entire luxury segment in the US with 2 car models when survey shows a little over 50% of the people are willing to buy EVs. So maybe advertising give them 5% additional people out of that segment and that's a major ask when there are mixed data out there showing just how effective advertising is. Tesla may not have enough product segmentation to capture the last 15% because people want trucks, a bigger SUV under 80k, or a smaller car than the 3. So people on Twitter screaming for advertisement is just crazy at this point in time.

Now that Tesla has expanded the TAM, they have more room to capture people from advertisement if the price drop doesn't do enough. I am just looking at the numbers Tesla sold and their over performance is unprecedented and management knows this very well. Only short term stock crack addicts want tesla management to waste precious dollars to advertise their cars to no one left who can afford them.

This year Tesla guided to sell 60% of the luxury segment and has already put q1 in the bag. 60% is ABOVE the amount of people willing to buy an EV today..which means Tesla need to move down stream to a different segment. However their price is still above 2020 levels, which means they are still in the luxury space segment now out performing the % of people willing to buy an EV. This is because people are willing to go over budget for a Tesla.

 

[TesslaBull]

The SP500 has outperformed ARK since Cath started her Tesla prognostications

S&P outperforms almost all active investors. Beating the S&P consistently over time with active investing is basically luck, kinda like playing the lottery. But ya, she doesn't have a very impressive track record as far as I can tell.

 

[GOVA]

The SP500 has outperformed ARK since Cath started her Tesla prognostications

When stonk was around $20 she was the only one giving it $400 forecast. It did happen. Did you give her credit?

 

[TesslaBull]

I am in the market for a Model 3 as a work commuter car. In my town there is a 2022 M3P without FSD and ~8K miles. I reached out to them as the price 55999. A new M3P in their spec (black with white interior) is 55490, But factoring in the tax credit its 48K. I explained this to them but they said there is no way they could sell it for 48K as their cost far exceeds this. I have to imagine that if you are taking in a Tesla on trade these places will probably not even bother anymore and if they do, they will low ball the trade in.

Tesla taking in trades obviously has an advantage, in that they can give FSD (perceived 15K of value) and essentially price the car at what a new one would cost. The reason I bring this up, is that Tesla is messing up so many things the established brands and dealers took for granted. Most of them have no idea FSD is a thing so they either dont highlight it or get mixed up with Autopilot versus Full Self Driving hardware.

This particular dealer because of the price cuts and tax credits is going to take a bath on this vehicle in either losing money at sale or sitting on it and paying high interest via their financing floorplan for months. They will likely send this to auction where it will fail to sell. I tried highlighting my math that they will need to be at or below 48K to get this sold to which I was scoffed at.

If I were this guys manger and he feeds him my info I would consider just cutting bait, but they probably won't because lets face it dealers have become used to getting their way in the last 3 years. Just another reminder that the old guard was never prepared for this company.

I am likely going to get a used Model 3 Base with EA from Tesla that carries another 1yr/10K miles in warranty while I wait patiently for the Cybertruck.

I guess the guy selling the M3P couldn't connect the dots that it doesn't matter what he *wants* to sell his used car for, fact is no one is going to pay more than the price of a new car for a used one. How does that not compute?

Also, be sure to pay attention to what you are paying for the used M3 base since even on Tesla's web site, used prices are really stupid and much too high compared to new inventory, if not even higher.

 

[wtlloyd]

I have to think lots and lots of people are going to be quite upside down on cars bought last year. New prices dropped and then a tax credit dropping them more.

Tell me about it.
But the stock price fluctuations and the effect it has on my investment account is far more obscene.
Well, at least I can say definitively that I have no ability to gauge timing the price for anything. Value gained, there.
I took delivery at noon on Dec 31. Was so happy...for 13 days.
(Love the car, no regrets).

 

[FastEddieB]

Well, at least I can say definitively that I have no ability to gauge timing the price for anything.

Don‘t beat yourself up. Nobody does - at least not consistently over time.

 

[madodel]

Don‘t beat yourself up. Nobody does - at least not consistently over time.

Which is why I HODL. The only people that know exactly what the price will be are the MM except on the rare occasion the price gets out from under their thumb.

 

[Tronguy]

I guess the guy selling the M3P couldn't connect the dots that it doesn't matter what he *wants* to sell his used car for, fact is no one is going to pay more than the price of a new car for a used one. How does that not compute?

Also, be sure to pay attention to what you are paying for the used M3 base since even on Tesla's web site, used prices are really stupid and much too high compared to new inventory, if not even higher.

I don't show up often in this thread, but this whole bit about the cost of a car dropping over time and this, somehow, being Wrong or Unheard Of just rubs me the wrong way.

Let's get real: I bought a no-kidding, original IBM PC with 256k of RAM and an 8088 processor back in 1984 or thereabouts. The SO and I paid $3000 in 1984 dollars; that's around $9000 in today's money. Several years later we bought a '386 PC for around $2k. Last year I bought a laptop with a 3 GHz Intel CPU, a 1 TB hard drive, and 16 GB of RAM. For less than $1k. Yeah, I wrote my actual Thesis on that IBM PC: But, if I had to do it all over again, I'd rather pick the modern laptop and ditch the 5 1/4" floppies.

So, Tesla is out there improving their manufacturing processes, reducing the COGS going into the car, and, frankly, building a better car. That costs less and has better performance. And people are complaining about this? With the obvious example of the entire computer industry present and accounted for?

I dunno.. maybe it's my age. Maybe the computer industry has stagnated over the past decade or so and the young'uns don't remember how it was. But, sheesh.

 

[insaneoctane]

S&P outperforms almost all active investors. Beating the S&P consistently over time with active investing is basically luck, kinda like playing the lottery. But ya, she doesn't have a very impressive track record as far as I can tell.

Maybe behind a paywall for some...

These 7 simple portfolios have beat the S&P 500 for more than 50 years

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[TesslaBull]

I don't show up often in this thread, but this whole bit about the cost of a car dropping over time and this, somehow, being Wrong or Unheard Of just rubs me the wrong way.

Let's get real: I bought a no-kidding, original IBM PC with 256k of RAM and an 8088 processor back in 1984 or thereabouts. The SO and I paid $3000 in 1984 dollars; that's around $9000 in today's money. Several years later we bought a '386 PC for around $2k. Last year I bought a laptop with a 3 GHz Intel CPU, a 1 TB hard drive, and 16 GB of RAM. For less than $1k. Yeah, I wrote my actual Thesis on that IBM PC: But, if I had to do it all over again, I'd rather pick the modern laptop and ditch the 5 1/4" floppies.

So, Tesla is out there improving their manufacturing processes, reducing the COGS going into the car, and, frankly, building a better car. That costs less and has better performance. And people are complaining about this? With the obvious example of the entire computer industry present and accounted for?

I dunno.. maybe it's my age. Maybe the computer industry has stagnated over the past decade or so and the young'uns don't remember how it was. But, sheesh.

The way so many people act, you would think people have only bought or sold cars in their entire lives in the last two years. So obviously, selling or trading in a car for more than you paid for it after driving it for 2-3 years is how it's supposed to always be, right?

Brand new M3P $45k after tax rebates, but I expect to sell my used M3P for $58k. How are people even alive?

Edit: yay, my username change went through hahaha.

 

[MC3OZ]

I don't think this has been posted.

But I agree with Larry, short term margins are a rounding error compared to 2030 market share.

The pace of production expansion is what counts, and why not get a head-start?

Well worth watching Larry, makes some very good points.

 

[Thekiwi]

When stonk was around $20 she was the only one giving it $400 forecast. It did happen. Did you give her credit?

For context she had similar stratospheric price forecasts for basically all the dozens of stocks she added to her funds, and many of them bombed. Getting one out of 10 or 20 or 50 stocks right does not make her a genius - that makes her extremely mediocre. Compare that to many here who essentially got 1 out of 1 stock right and didn’t feel the need to look at any other stocks - 100% winning record. We don’t need to be posting estimates from mediocre shitco pumpers here - we got plenty of OG mofos here with far better track records.