Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TSLA Siempre]

Teslas are incredible vehicles and easily the best cars on the planet. On top of that, the vehicles are pretty close to price parity with their ICE counterparts. Further still, the model Y and model 3 are also pretty close to the average sale vehicle sale price among all vehicles in the United States. They are an incredible value for the money and affordable for the masses. Even in the current interest rate environment (competition has same interest rates), the Teslas should be selling.

We also have a substantial tax credit in the United States.

Teslas do not have an affordability problem at current prices.

It’s a desirability problem.

Which is ridiculous since they are the best vehicles available.

It’s obvious that there has been some degradation of the brand. There are plenty of buyers who are aware of Teslas that won’t buy them. Almost everyone knows who Elon is at this point and his public persona is intertwined with Tesla’s image. His controversial behavior and provocations have turned off people. The company is feeling the impact of it now. The magnitude of the impact is debatable but it’s definitely non zero. Even little brand damage at the margins are important now.

Any advertising really shouldn’t be about “education”. It has to focus on image. Teslas used to be super cool. They are not as much currently (notwithstanding the kids that @Gigapress has interviewed). This change happened pretty quickly and it’s obvious why. We need to bring that back the cool factor. Cybertruck will help but that won’t be a factor in the short term.

Elon has to have a lower profile and reel it in. I can’t get into his brain, but I doubt he gets it. His behavior continues unabated and the framework for his thinking seems to be that price cuts are the way to address demand issues. His bumbling management of Twitter does not inspire confidence either.

It’s a shame it’s come to this.

 

[spacerfc]

Teslas used to be super cool. They are not as much currently (notwithstanding the kids that @Gigapress has interviewed).

Toyota sold 10 million vehicles in 2022, does anybody think Toyota is cool?

 

[spacerfc]

Tesla and Elon seem unnecessarily stubborn about this. The way to run a successful company is rarely to come up with the most brilliant plan and then execute on that, but rather you use thousands of small trial and error processes and continue doing what works and drop what doesn't. In this case, try advertising in a small market, see if it works and is worth the investment, and then decide.

I don't think Elon is stubbornly refusing to do advertisement, he just doesn't see the need yet. Starlink does plenty of advertisement, both physically (billboard stuff) and online (Google ads). So no, there doesn't exist a rule that says Elon company can't do ads.

 

[MC3OZ]

Cybertruck will be cool, Plaid Model S is cool, the Roadster will be cool.
Model X is still a bit cool.
Model 3 and Model Y are high volume mass market cars, hard for these to be cool.
Hard for a Semi or a van to be cool.
Harder for an entry level compact car to be cool.
Personally speaking I have never purchased a car becuase it was cool.
Fun to drive was high up the list.

 

[Thekiwi]

By Elon thst adfwrtisjng is fine for one of his companies, but not th either” the reasoning don't think Elon is stubbornly refusing to do advertisement, he just doesn't see the need yet. Starlink does plenty of advertisement, both physically (billboard stuff) and online (Google ads). So no, there doesn't exist a rule that says Elon company can't do ads.

This is a great point - I see SpaceX Starlink advertising a lot, both online and in person (billboards, mailbox drops). What is the reasoning by Elon that paid advertising is fine for one of his companies, but not another? Would be interesting to hear the specific reasoning.

 

[mongo]

This is a great point - I see SpaceX Starlink advertising a lot, both online and in person (billboards, mailbox drops). What is the reasoning by Elon that paid advertising is fine for one of his companies, but not another? Would be interesting to hear the specific reasoning.

Starlink has surplus infrastructure* and production capacity. Plus, it's less apparent (self promoting) than vehicles on the road.
*regionally

 

[Buckminster]

What is most likely?

1. Highland released earlier than CT
   1. Old M3 stock cleared out where possible by end Q2
   2. Highland M3 released July? at higher price (when it is ready) along with H/W4 including cameras and new radar
      1. Starting Austin? first - others factories transition later as H/W4 stocks allow
   3. Cybertruck delivery event in September
2. Highland released with CT alongside H/W4 on both
   1. Old M3 stock cleared out where possible by end Q3
   2. Cybertruck delivery event in September alongside Highland at increased price
      1. Maybe try transitioning all factories to Highland simultaneously with huge H/W4 inventory

Cyberquad also released Sep.
Will Hertz place a big order of Highlands immediately?

 

[2daMoon]

Starlink has surplus infrastructure* and production capacity. Plus, it's less apparent (self promoting) than vehicles on the road.
*regionally

Plus, the companies that Starlink threatens are not as powerful and completely entrenched as Big Auto, Big Oil, and Big Energy, so there is less likelihood the ad content will be distorted and turned against SpaceX by the media in the way that Tesla routinely experiences.

This is the most significant reason for Tesla not to feed the beast with information that will be used to counter their efforts.

As Twitter / X.com opens up more of a YouTube-like channel, this might become the sort of platform they could use to deliver fun, informational content in a way less likely for the powers that be to get a lever under it in order to control the content. It would take some time before an alternative platform had the scale or scope to match the reach of MSM and YT.

 

[MC3OZ]

What is most likely?

1. Highland released earlier than CT
   1. Old M3 stock cleared out where possible by end Q2
   2. Highland M3 released July? at higher price (when it is ready) along with H/W4 including cameras and new radar
      1. Starting Austin? first - others factories transition later as H/W4 stocks allow
   3. Cybertruck delivery event in September
2. Highland released with CT alongside H/W4 on both
   1. Old M3 stock cleared out where possible by end Q3
   2. Cybertruck delivery event in September alongside Highland at increased price
      1. Maybe try transitioning all factories to Highland simultaneously with huge H/W4 inventory

Cyberquad also released Sep.
Will Hertz place a big order of Highlands immediately?

I think there was a chinese rumour that Highland production in Shanghai will start in September.

 

[Max Plaid]

I am not sure how much twitter helps, as Elon is the most followed there, and even if you're not following him, the timeline is sure to show his tweets as they tend to be the most popular.

If its worth doing ads, targeted ads at those who have searched for Tesla could be the highest ROI, like say on the ad words ecosystem or an other place where you can target well heeled gen X or boomer folks (FB comes to mind).

But my 2 cents is, I am not even sure Tesla has a social media presence outside of twitter. They could organically post some videos and increase engagement on Tik Tok, Insta, snapchat etc. May be run some contests and offer swag to the winners, while at it. I am not on those platforms, so have no idea if Tesla does anything there at all. Perhaps a way to increase awareness without advertising?

Also, there was the referral program sometime ago, but that was massively gamed, with a few influencers winning roadsters. The current one they are running barely seems to register. May be something that gets a bit more traction?

The most memorable thing for me was the original roadster getting launched to Mars. I still am amazed and pause anytime i see the image. Is there a way to recreate that magic?

(Nobody posted about this yet?)

VW: Volkswagen Group steps up activities in North America – Canada chosen as location for first overseas gigafactory of its battery company PowerCo SE

(AP take)

I like how even VW is calling it a "gigafactory"! It'll be a BIG factory - 2 million sq. ft. Canada and the Ontario provincial government are apparently contributing a total of $13,000,000,000 ($13 B) towards the deal! That's a lot of tax-payers money to help an OEM, but I'm sure Mexico had to pony up too for Monterrey. The factory in St. Thomas, near Detroit, will cost $7 B (assuming these are US$), which is way more than Tesla spends to build a factory, but still, good news for the mission.

View attachment 930539

$13Billion, seriously, where do you get that figure from, that's like the whole Canadian GDP...?

Can you imagine the media shitstorm if Tesla got government funding of $13B! There was enough noise about the tax-rebates for GF1 over the years and that was just reduction of taxes to be paid which were already going to be a huge +net for the state

 

[EVNow]

$13Billion, seriously, where do you get that figure from, that's like the whole Canadian GDP...?

Can you imagine the media shitstorm if Tesla got government funding of $13B! There was enough noise about the tax-rebates for GF1 over the years and that was just reduction of taxes to be paid which were already going to be a huge +net for the state

Misinterpreted I guess ....


"Canada has seen at least 10 major electric vehicle-related commitments totaling more than $16 billion Canadian (US$12 billion) in the past two years as federal and provincial governments work to attract investments in the sector."

 

[nativewolf]

Yes the IRa should be good for Canada and Mexico

 

[cliff harris]

His controversial behavior and provocations have turned off people.

Elon is now the most followed person on the entire planet. By definition, he now has more supporters than before. How can this possibly be if he has 'turned off people'? I think you mean SOME people of SOME political persuasion. Other people exist.

His bumbling management of Twitter does not inspire confidence either.

Literally turned around a doomed company with atrocious financials to be cashflow positive within 6 months. Also added more features in 6 months, with one quarter of the staff, than the 7,000 strong workforce managed in 10 years. I don't know what you definition of 'bumbling' is, but its not mine.

Just say 'I disagree with Elons politics' and stop there. Trying to pretend its a business mistake is just embarrassing,

 

[zecar]

Teslas are incredible vehicles and easily the best cars on the planet. On top of that, the vehicles are pretty close to price parity with their ICE counterparts. Further still, the model Y and model 3 are also pretty close to the average sale vehicle sale price among all vehicles in the United States. They are an incredible value for the money and affordable for the masses. Even in the current interest rate environment (competition has same interest rates), the Teslas should be selling.

We also have a substantial tax credit in the United States.

Teslas do not have an affordability problem at current prices.

It’s a desirability problem.

Which is ridiculous since they are the best vehicles available.

It’s obvious that there has been some degradation of the brand. There are plenty of buyers who are aware of Teslas that won’t buy them. Almost everyone knows who Elon is at this point and his public persona is intertwined with Tesla’s image. His controversial behavior and provocations have turned off people. The company is feeling the impact of it now. The magnitude of the impact is debatable but it’s definitely non zero. Even little brand damage at the margins are important now.

Any advertising really shouldn’t be about “education”. It has to focus on image. Teslas used to be super cool. They are not as much currently (notwithstanding the kids that @Gigapress has interviewed). This change happened pretty quickly and it’s obvious why. We need to bring that back the cool factor. Cybertruck will help but that won’t be a factor in the short term.

Elon has to have a lower profile and reel it in. I can’t get into his brain, but I doubt he gets it. His behavior continues unabated and the framework for his thinking seems to be that price cuts are the way to address demand issues. His bumbling management of Twitter does not inspire confidence either.

It’s a shame it’s come to this.

Musk is very likely past peak. Historically the decline always happens with these guys. The question with Tesla is if better decision making is possible with him as CEO. Pinning the hope for TSLA on FSD being viable is ridiculously sad for a company that has so many strengths.

The fact that the Cybertruck will likely be great shows both the quality of Tesla engineering and the stupidity of Musk not choosing a more universally appealing vehicle that could be the basis for a variety of large and medium sized trucks and real SUVs

Tesla has succeeded in spite of Musk's aesthetic design choices. Not because of them. What Musk brought was extreme discipline on manufacturing and cost control. What seems most likely at this point is that Tesla will learn that there is not infinite demand for three old designs of bean shaped vehicles.

 

[cliff harris]

Tesla will learn that there is not infinite demand for three old designs of bean shaped vehicles.

So you are saying they need a radical design for a vehicle? Maybe something angular with sharp edges? BTW Model Y is the top selling vehicle in Europe. Seems to be selling pretty well still.

 

[2daMoon]

Tesla has succeeded in spite of Musk's aesthetic design choices. Not because of them. What Musk brought was extreme discipline on manufacturing and cost control. What seems most likely at this point is that Tesla will learn that there is not infinite demand for three old designs of bean shaped vehicles.

... and here I've been thinking that it was Franz who came up with the designs for Tesla.

Too bad that Elon didn't surround himself with a lot of innovative shakers and movers. Imagine what his companies would have been like had he done so.

The key words to be taken from the quoted post are bolded, above.

 

[winfield100]

Musk is very likely past peak. Historically the decline always happens with these guys. The question with Tesla is if better decision making is possible with him as CEO. Pinning the hope for TSLA on FSD being viable is ridiculously sad for a company that has so many strengths.

The fact that the Cybertruck will likely be great shows both the quality of Tesla engineering and the stupidity of Musk not choosing a more universally appealing vehicle that could be the basis for a variety of large and medium sized trucks and real SUVs

Tesla has succeeded in spite of Musk's aesthetic design choices. Not because of them. What Musk brought was extreme discipline on manufacturing and cost control. What seems most likely at this point is that Tesla will learn that there is not infinite demand for three old designs of bean shaped vehicles.

21,529,464 Beetles were made, and sold, and re-sold, and resold over 65 years

 

[Drax7]

Not to over simplify ....but, due to price elasticity being a real thing, by Tesla committing to significantly ramp production rates, aren't they, by definition, committed to lowering the price per the PED curve?

View attachment 930881

Certainly we can argue about what the PED curve slope/shape is and how the current macro environment is affecting it, but Tesla has all the real data and they have it all real-time. As long as they are committed to materially moving to the right on this PED curve (which they are), prices must come down. Tesla has said margins be damned because they currently have industry leading margins and want to double quantities....again and again.

Can the demand curve shift to the right with educational advertising?

Polls indicate 41% of the USA population do not know the name of the vice president.

 

[AndrewZ]

$13Billion, seriously, where do you get that figure from, that's like the whole Canadian GDP...?

Can you imagine the media shitstorm if Tesla got government funding of $13B! There was enough noise about the tax-rebates for GF1 over the years and that was just reduction of taxes to be paid which were already going to be a huge +net for the state

It’s $700m of funding towards construction of the facility and then up to $13b over a decade in subsidies for production of the batteries themselves, very similar to what the Inflation Reduction Act would have provided in the US through the types of manufacturing credits people are hoping Tesla receives.

And it sounds like those subsidies then need to be paid back over five years.

 

[Speedr117]

Can the demand curve shift to the right with educational advertising?

Literally had a conversation with a high school coach at a corner, fundraising car wash. They were washing my 6 year old Model S, and he commented that I got mine when they were affordable (of course it was the opposite). When I told him the cheapest Model Y was $39,500 after tax rebates, he about fell over. Said he would trade in his pickup truck (full size of course) since it's so expensive to drive every month. Of course, I pilled on with "no maintenance nor brakes" ever...

In regards to advertising, cheap, simple display ads showing the low price would be enough to fix this.

Personally, I remember wanting an EV back in 2011, but it was Nissan showing the "$199/month" lease for the Leaf that pushed me into action. I thought "that's what I spend on gas every month, so the car is free". Needless to say, I leased one, and so started the journey...