Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

View attachment 935028

I think (hope!) your hope will be reached.

When the Cybertruck was first revealed, the target price for the dual-motor 300+ mile version was roughly or $49.9K

What stood out to me at the time was that was actually less (I think) than the then-current price of the dual-motor 300+ mile Model Y. So, at least at the time, there was some thought within Tesla that the design had significant cost savings -- it would be a bigger, heavier vehicle, with 6 seats, with more battery for a lower price than the Y.

In the years between then and now, the Model Y went way up in price...but then came back down to around the same level again.

Perhaps unplanned features have been added, making the truck a bit more expensive...and of course it will likely be the more expensive versions produced first...and Tesla's price variations to match demand...but I still cling to the idea that at some future time, prices for Cybertruck and Model Y will at least be similar for similar range and motor count.

And one of Elon's statements back then was something like: "we should be able to make a really great truck for $49K". Given that the base model at the time was targeted at $39.9K, I hope at least some version of the truck can be had for close to that $49K target.

I think given inflation it is fair to add $10k to those prices, and one can foresee they will only be selling the tri motor variant for the first 12 months or more.

Still cheaper than a model X, or an F-150 lightning with similar specs.

 

[Buckminster]

God Save The Technoking!

 

[CorneliusXX]

In weekend new ex Spacex /Starlink

https://twitter.com/x/status/1654673695007457280

June,22. 500k subs
Dec,22. 1.0 m subs
May,23. 1.5 m subs

I love this product. I got one for my dad out in rural Australia. It's just so much better than the internet he had previously that it feels like stepping 10 years into the future. It enables me to video call him from London and to work remotely from there when visiting - creating more opportunity to be with family.

 

[JRP3]

The only way I'm personally getting a cybertruck is if it has all the features the Model Y has and is somehow cheaper than a Model Y.

But I'm happy for all you that will be willing to pay for a cybertruck that costs more than a Model Y.

It's a larger more capable vehicle with a huge battery, unlikely it could ever cost less than the Y.

 

[Fred42]

Umm.. Ford is now selling the F150 Lightning with no pre orders, just order and pick it up.

Their 2 year pre-order list has vanished.

Rivian’s 2 year wait list vanished.

GM is already limping a new trim, that “Freshness“ Farley was talking about I guess.

Dare I suggest that maybe demand for $90k+ electric trucks isn’t as high as people thought?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1654609745381142529

This means that Ford is dropping their company-run consumer reservation system. New customers just deal
with the dealer, although there's also mention of an ability to order on-line. This doesn't tell us how long customers will have to wait after ordering, and it doesn't tell us that customers on the pre-order list have received their trucks.

 

[JRP3]

I mostly don’t want to pay for it, but also the increased complexity and risk of failure are troubling.

How so? Do you expect it to be more prone to failure than the front steering all vehicles have?

 

[Stretch2727]

How so? Do you expect it to be more prone to failure than the front steering all vehicles have?

Possibly because it will need to be 100% servo/motor driven versus some very robust mechanical linkage. I don't think generally this will be an issue but maybe for a vehicle more than 10 years old where corrosion sets in etc. In the end its all about the complexity, if you have 1 of something that fails at x rate, 2 of them doubles the probability.

"The best part is no part".

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Where does the term 'Stockholm syndrome' come from? deseret.com (2023-01-28)

hth.

Thanks! Good to know it's not characterized as a mental disorder..although....some days for $TSLA makes me feel like..

 

[Beltsbear]

How so? Do you expect it to be more prone to failure than the front steering all vehicles have?

Absolutely. It will be entirely motor driven. If the motors fail and the rear wheels are not straight , you are not driving today. That is a huge downside. Some mitigation could be if it could be totally switched off , then at least the rear wheels are straight.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1654535099969421314

In case anyone missed it

 

[JRP3]

Absolutely. It will be entirely motor driven. If the motors fail and the rear wheels are not straight , you are not driving today. That is a huge downside. Some mitigation could be if it could be totally switched off , then at least the rear wheels are straight.

I expect the default position would be straight and that rear steering will have little use most of the time.

 

[EVMeister]

A nice video showcasing Midnight Cherry Red on the Model Y:

 

[unk45]

Possibly because it will need to be 100% servo/motor driven versus some very robust mechanical linkage. I don't think generally this will be an issue but maybe for a vehicle more than 10 years old where corrosion sets in etc. In the end its all about the complexity, if you have 1 of something that fails at x rate, 2 of them doubles the probability.

"The best part is no part".

Has anybody ever heard of problems with the four wheel steering (4WS) on other cars tahtahve had that since the early 1988 Honda Prelude. I have owned three cars, three brands with 4WS, a Nissan, BMW and Porsche. None of the three had problems with that, although the Porsche had it's share with other issues:

29 Cars That Have Had 4-Wheel Steering Systems

Four-wheel steering (4WS) adds agility and stability, but this promising tech hasn't found widespread adoption - yet. From 1893 origins to 1980s Honda, discover the history of 4WS and how it's making a small comeback.

cartreatments.com

Factually I have only my own experience, although I have not heard of 4WS problems, even though the Porsche 928 was their first experimentation with 4WS that seemed to be trouble free, in wild contrast to the of Porsche 964 4WD, which worked very well on snow and Ice (I used mine as a ski car) but seemed to fail often, three repairs on mine in the first year, so I sold it.

There has been such a lot of use of 4WS that I strongly doubt that will be troublesome for Cybertruck. Cost...is an entirely different issue. I'd be surprised if it really will cost much in volume, the ones that were depended on unusual mechanical and electronic linkages IIRC.

For complex, just look at Porsche:

Technology explained: Rear-axle steering - Total 911

A new feature on the 991 GT3 and Turbo, Total 911 explains how rear-wheel steering works (and how it isn’t such a new technology).

www.total911.com

 

[Skryll]

Has anybody ever heard of problems with the four wheel steering (4WS) on other cars [that have] had that since the early 1988 Honda Prelude. I have owned three cars, three brands with 4WS, a Nissan, BMW and Porsche. None of the three had problems with that, [although Porsche did...]

I was just thinking about that too, but in terms of how much better teslas AWD works than the more mechanical 4wd, evidenced by us driving circles around stranded 4wd SUVS on the way to the ski resort. So maybe its just totally worth it here too.

 

[stef]

We’ve been to the Tesla Store in Zurich to check the cherry red. Impressive depth of color, but personally not 100% sold on it (still prefer my multicoat red)
That said, the place was busy. Only the cherry Y was in the store, the rest of the floor was empty because … all cars they usually have there (the whole 4 models) were out for test drives! Never seen it like this before, definitely a lot of interest.

 

[unk45]

I was just thinking about that too, but in terms of how much better teslas AWD works than the more mechanical 4wd, evidenced by us driving circles around stranded 4wd SUVS on the way to the ski resort. So maybe its just totally worth it here too.

Even the S70 I drove through heavy snow without snow tires was a surprise when a Range Rover beside me in parking lot was stuck and the 'primitive' 2WD Tesla just drove away. Driver technique cold not quite explain both results. Later on that trip I was told about how the Tesla traction control works, and began to understand.

I do not really understand the technology Tesla uses, but the stability Tesla delivers has always impressed me, more than any other car I have driven. Strangely to me, there is not too much conversation about that here.

 

[GhostSkater]

Even the S70 I drove through heavy snow without snow tires was a surprise when a Range Rover beside me in parking lot was stuck and the 'primitive' 2WD Tesla just drove away. Driver technique cold not quite explain both results. Later on that trip I was told about how the Tesla traction control works, and began to understand.

I do not really understand the technology Tesla uses, but the stability Tesla delivers has always impressed me, more than any other car I have driven. Strangely to me, there is not too much conversation about that here.

One of the biggest advantage Tesla have on the traction control is that it happens inside the inverter, and you have inverter talking to inverters, instead of having a ECU coordinating everything, this allows much faster response and no visible wheel spin

Take a look at this video, and specially look what a mess the BMW is, wheels spinning everywhere on the wet, while the Teslas silently glide away

This makes me think that Cybertruck will be a beast off road

None of the off road capable EVs so far impressed on that department, both Rivian and Hummer EV have lots of trouble in situations the frio each wheel have is charging all the time, and even if on the Rivian case it improved quite a bit with updates, it’s far from what a ICE vehicles with lockers everywhere would do in terms of wheel spin

 

[jerry33]

Even the S70 I drove through heavy snow without snow tires was a surprise when a Range Rover beside me in parking lot was stuck and the 'primitive' 2WD Tesla just drove away. Driver technique cold not quite explain both results. Later on that trip I was told about how the Tesla traction control works, and began to understand.

I do not really understand the technology Tesla uses, but the stability Tesla delivers has always impressed me, more than any other car I have driven. Strangely to me, there is not too much conversation about that here.

Probably it's not discussed here because it's not really an investment topic (not that off-topic has stopped anyone yet). There should be some discussion in the winter tires thread and perhaps others.

 

[bkp_duke]

One of the biggest advantage Tesla have on the traction control is that it happens inside the inverter, and you have inverter talking to inverters, instead of having a ECU coordinating everything, this allows much faster response and no visible wheel spin

Take a look at this video, and specially look what a mess the BMW is, wheels spinning everywhere on the wet, while the Teslas silently glide away

This makes me think that Cybertruck will be a beast off road

None of the off road capable EVs so far impressed on that department, both Rivian and Hummer EV have lots of trouble in situations the frio each wheel have is charging all the time, and even if on the Rivian case it improved quite a bit with updates, it’s far from what a ICE vehicles with lockers everywhere would do in terms of wheel spin

Anyone that considers themselves a car person or racer has come to this conclusion as well. Glad to see someone put some additional numbers down on it. Teslas are the ultimate "driver's cars". Meaning they handle as well or better than anything out there. And if you have taken some time an go talk to the techs working at the Tesla Service Centers, almost every last one of them will tell you that the 3 is their favorite for driving on track, curvy roads, etc. (*I haven't been to a SC since the Plaid S with Track Package was released).

Elon doubters need to be reminded that when Elon said they were going to produce the BEST car, period, he wasn't kidding.

 

[Drumheller]

Artful Dodger, are you actually a young woman driving a gray model 3? Passed you earlier today and saw your K4BUKI license plate.