Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cdub]

I bet the round wheel we have seen in Highland Model 3 will be an option. Tesla learned from the S/X experiment.

Did they learn though if they're making this wheel?

 

[Tony73]

How are your calculations getting you to EPS to AAPL levels? Here are some back of the envelope calculations:

Based on the latest 10Q, looks like Tesla had $2B in capex for Q1 2023. They are guiding for 7-9B in capex for 2023,2024, and 2025. What would be a more 'normal' capex for Tesla if they weren't in expansion mode? Let's say it's $1B/quarter (complete guess and doesn't seem realistic but let's go with it). That would add another $1B to net income, taking it from $2.5B to $3.5B. or $EPS of $0.80 to $1.12. annualized that is $4.48/share. May argue for a better for a share price than now, but AAPL level doesn't seem realistic. Unless you are figuring in more $ from FSD or non-auto businesses. Would be interested in your math.

In what accounting universe does capex have anything to do with net income ?

 

[Max Plaid]

Nasdaq up 1.5+% . . . TSLA barely staying green.

Nope, no manipulation here. Nothing to see, move along now folks.

A 180 pin for the week would suit the option sellers the best, failing that, avoiding the c185 wall is the top priority

Today's trading reinforcing p180 and c185, somewhere between the two would be satisfactory... volume is low, it's an easy one to control

 

[Artful Dodger]

My question, when subscribing for a month(s) of FSD, do you receive access to the beta version? I know at one point you wouldn't but not sure if that has changed.

Yes. This seems to be new since Tesla resumed deliveries of FSD Beta after the merger of the 2022.x and 2023.x software branches. Numerous users reporting on Twitter that they got the download a few hours after subscribing to FSD (monthly subscription).

Sawyer Merritt on Twitter: "BREAKING: @Tesla has started sending out FSD Beta to new testers, resuming a rollout that was paused for several months due to an over-the-air (OTA) recall from the NHTSA. The rollout includes FSD Beta 11.3.6 on the latest 2023 software branch. Tesla resumes FSD Beta roll out to new testers following NHTSA recall" / Twitter​

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Sawyer Merritt on Twitter: "All the people that recently signed up for the subscription should start to get FSD Beta soon." / Twitter​

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Teslascope on Twitter: "Full Self-Driving (Beta) is now available for all eligible @Tesla vehicles in North America. We’ve seen hundreds of vehicles receiving the latest update (2023.12.10) in under an hour after subscribing. We welcome all new testers; enjoy experiencing City Streets & stay safe!" / Twitter​

 

[TSLA Siempre]

In what accounting universe does capex have anything to do with net income ?

good point. i acknowledge my mistake. that isn't correct and capex isn't even part of net income. the original claim that was that earnings per share would be at $AAPL levels if capex went down. i don't see how that claim is valid.

bkp_duke:​

Vehicles sold and revenue continue to grow ~50% YoY. What happens when CapEx costs drop because Tesla hits goal and doesn't need any more GFs? Yeah, EPS heads to AAPL levels.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I subscribed in the morning and about 12 hours later the beta had downloaded to my car.

Folks don't realize it, but this is a $100M tailwind for Q2 Earnings. Elon mentioned during the Q1 CC that certain complications prevented full deployment of all the FSD beta requests. This merger of the 2022.x and 2023.x branches of the car O/S enables that deployment. Tesla will be able to recognize the additional deferred revenue from having deployed FSD beta to everyone in the queue.

Cheers!

 

[GhostSkater]

The return of the king

(8:55)

 

[Drumheller]

TBH I would be happy if they just gave me access to the front camera. When Im pulling forwards into a parking space with a big bollard, It would be trivial for my mere human eyes to look at the camera and pull up close enough, but apparently the cutting edge AI cannot manage this at all. Its constantly telling me to stop when I'm a foot or more away from an object.
Plus it cant discriminate between some soft foliage (ok for me to touch) and a concrete post. My human eyes can do this. Just give me the forward facing camera view! I know its there!

I tweeted your suggested to Tesla and Elon. I don't know your handle to tag you. If you like, feel free to retweet to try and get Tesla's attention on this idea.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661779950196887552

 

[DarthPierce]

I tweeted your suggested to Tesla and Elon. I don't know your handle to tag you. If you like, feel free to retweet to try and get Tesla's attention on this idea.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661779950196887552

I'm confused - it's not like it's a bumper-cam. It's at the top center of the windshield - almost the same view as what you have as the driver anyway. How is the front view helpful?

 

[Captkerosene]

In what accounting universe does capex have anything to do with net income ?

Looks like the first step towards a concept called "owner earnings." The amount that an owner can take out of a business while spending enough on capex to maintain - but not grow - the business. It's a better way to calculate earnings if your goal is to try and put a value on a company.

 

[navguy12]

This is almost always the most reasonable way to look at a company. Cherry pickers love to compare short term bumps and shifts as if they are super relevant.

Just like climate change deniers...

 

[GOVA]

Would be interesting to know more about what happened. "Noise from the bottom" to me is an indication he may have run over something very hard, and damaged the pack. It's rare, but it does happen (and was the reason for the titanium front protection bracket for the original S).

Saw that guy on Twitter. His car caught on fire which sucks but he is going crazy tagging POTUS etc. Doesn't seem stable.

Still fishy AF.

They used to just show questionable pictures of fires of nothing resembling the subject and later the car was impossible to find.

Now, with this, it looks just perfect. Noises heard, smoke, fire, then movie then 2nd movie then 'horrible' towing story then the manufacturer is bad because they did not help. Scripting much?

Then the guy turns out to be a nutcase on bluebird.
Looks like that 'brake failure' manufactured story from China a few years back with someone yelling from the car roof.

 

[navguy12]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661560483155943426

Alcantara covered dash board.

 

[GhostSkater]

One more, only thing I don't like is the size of the pillar

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661619601417830401

 

[navguy12]

Im not a Cybertruck customer, but TBH the wheel-yoke (woke?) doesnt look too bad to me. I never liked the yoke, I think the model Y wheel is pretty good.
The thing that would bother me is the apparent lack of stalks? Is this 100% confirmed? The cybertruck going stalk-less and trying to *guess* when you will indicate or do other stalk stuff?
The TeslaVision replacement for ultrasonic sensors is worse than useless TBH. I just totally ignore it. It was a step too far in terms of penny-pinching for a premium car.
If future Teslas dont have stalks, I'll be keeping my model Y until it falls to bits. This feels like a step way too far. (USS was bad enough).

I’m keeping my antique (five year old) TM3 for at least another five years; bought FSDB for it for a song back in early 2019 along with an included HW 3 upgrade…and lifetime premium connectivity…plus the USS which is great in my parking garage.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Lexus will kiss your behind. Go get their X equivalent. You might get a free beverage and massage too. Done.

Yep, and if your water pump goes out (suv hybrid), kindly pay $4k to have the engine block partially removed to install the $400 part.

 

[Beltsbear]

HW4 may be shipping on some model Y now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661794003690606592

 

[navguy12]

One more, only thing I don't like is the size of the pillar

View attachment 940966

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661619601417830401

Love the cyber seat controls.

 

[Captkerosene]

Possibly the biggest value jump ever for Tesla in the last few days ... but nobody sees it or is saying anything. Anybody have a guess what I'm talking about?

 

[GhostSkater]

Possibly the biggest value jump ever for Tesla in the last few days ... but nobody sees it or is saying anything. Anybody have a guess what I'm talking about?

Robyn being appointed as CEO?