Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

Looks fugly IMO and loses the utility of either. Wheel is good because it slides through the fingers and can be grabbed predictably at all angles of steering. Yoke is good because you can hook you thumb over the horn, making one-handed driving very relaxing. This achieves neither. YMMV

I don't understand this, can't you place your hand in the same position on this or a yoke?

 

[Ipcress]

CapEx for 2023 vs. 2022 is supposed to be ~2B higher.

DETAILS matter.

You are cherry picking, and you know it.

Are you going to be singing praises for Q2 2023 when earnings are a SMASH HIT above last year due to China lockdowns stopping GF Shanghai? Probably not.

A more reasonable metric would be Trailing Twelve Months.

Quoting net income on a company re-investing in itself to build 3 Gigafactories, 2 Megafactories, a massive supercharger network, and deep deep R&D to try to sell your take as a company slowing down is disingenuous. It's a flat out lie.

Calling other forum members liars is not acceptable behavior. Let your ideas stand or fall on their own merit. No need to be so unpleasant. Mods, are there rules for this?

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

CapEx for 2023 vs. 2022 is supposed to be ~2B higher.

DETAILS matter.

You are cherry picking, and you know it.

Are you going to be singing praises for Q2 2023 when earnings are a SMASH HIT above last year due to China lockdowns stopping GF Shanghai? Probably not.

A more reasonable metric would be Trailing Twelve Months.

Quoting net income on a company re-investing in itself to build 3 Gigafactories, 2 Megafactories, a massive supercharger network, and deep deep R&D to try to sell your take as a company slowing down is disingenuous. It's a flat out lie.

TTM EPS also decreased

Tesla EPS - Earnings per Share 2010-2023 | TSLA

Tesla annual and quarterly earnings per share history from 2010 to 2023. Earnings per share can be defined as a company's net earnings or losses attributable to common shareholders per diluted share base, which includes all convertible securities and debt, options and warrants. <ul...

www.macrotrends.net

Gross margins (ignores capex) are down QoQ, YoY.

I am not a troll, nor a bear. I am heavily long the stock but providing constructive criticism in understand where TSLA is in the investment cycle.

And my overall point is simply that you cannot compare TSLA PE ratio and sentiment favorably to NVDA right now, and these data points are some of the reason why.

Of course I expect those to improve in ~ 1 year or so.

Not really sure how this sort of discussion is worth blocking me.

 

[bkp_duke]

If I recall correctly, Tesla has never spent so much in building infrastructure for future growth like it's doing right now.

BINGO! And yet some here can't do simple math to understand THAT is the primary reason for the drop in EPS. Yes, there were price cuts, but that just brought prices and margins back to 2020/21 levels, nothing more.

Vehicles sold and revenue continue to grow ~50% YoY. What happens when CapEx costs drop because Tesla hits goal and doesn't need any more GFs? Yeah, EPS heads to AAPL levels.

 

[Mengy]

BINGO! And yet some here can't do simple math to understand THAT is the primary reason for the drop in EPS. Yes, there were price cuts, but that just brought prices and margins back to 2020/21 levels, nothing more.

Vehicles sold and revenue continue to grow ~50% YoY. What happens when CapEx costs drop because Tesla hits goal and doesn't need any more GFs? Yeah, EPS heads to AAPL levels.

Exactly, but this is a long term outlook, and many "investors" only look at recent quarters to make decisions.

Tesla the company is doing extremely well and laying the foundation for huge growth down the road, but you need to look out more than a year to appreciate said foundation, and many people just don't do that.

 

[Unpilot]

BINGO! And yet some here can't do simple math to understand THAT

They understand it all right...but if it does not fit thier narrative....well ignore it.

 

[cusetownusa]

When Tesla provides a free month of fsd and people have this same experience what percentage of people are going to opt-in to $199/month subscription? There's something like 1M teslas in the US and if 50% took this up that's about $1B in extra profit annually?

And that's just the tip of the fsd iceberg. Sure it wont be straight up for TSLA, but I'm comfortably all-in on Tesla. Futures looking great.

Good question. $200 per month is a lot of money though but would be great for road trips so I may get it or maybe a highway version for cheaper if they offer it. My neighbor just complained to me yesterday that he found out the premium connectivity costs $10 per month when the free trial runs out and won't be renewing it. So you can guarantee he won't be subscribing to FSD. So based on my deep analytical data analysis utilizing the latest ai technology tools, my conclusion seems to match your 50% assumption exactly. (please don't make me show the math, just trust me that I came up with 50% also).

 

[bkp_duke]

Good question. $200 per month is a lot of money though but would be great for road trips so I may get it or maybe a highway version for cheaper if they offer it. My neighbor just complained to me yesterday that he found out the premium connectivity costs $10 per month when the free trial runs out and won't be renewing it. So you can guarantee he won't be subscribing to FSD. So based on my deep analytical data analysis utilizing the latest ai technology tools, my conclusion seems to match your 50% assumption exactly. (please don't make me show the math, just trust me that I came up with 50% also).

Spot on. I've got a 2018 M3P that I'm going to try to get upgraded to HW3 before next month. We have a road trip to Yosemite with some non-Tesla friends from the east coast and will be taking both cars. They will be driving the 3, we will have the Y with the dogs. Want them to get the "full Tesla experience". So I'll pony the 1k for the HW upgrade, and $200 for a month of FSD.

 

[JRP3]

Spot on. I've got a 2018 M3P that I'm going to try to get upgraded to HW3 before next month. We have a road trip to Yosemite with some non-Tesla friends from the east coast and will be taking both cars. They will be driving the 3, we will have the Y with the dogs. Want them to get the "full Tesla experience". So I'll pony the 1k for the HW upgrade, and $200 for a month of FSD.

Why not just get a new M3P?

 

[TSLA Siempre]

BINGO! And yet some here can't do simple math to understand THAT is the primary reason for the drop in EPS. Yes, there were price cuts, but that just brought prices and margins back to 2020/21 levels, nothing more.

Vehicles sold and revenue continue to grow ~50% YoY. What happens when CapEx costs drop because Tesla hits goal and doesn't need any more GFs? Yeah, EPS heads to AAPL levels.

How are your calculations getting you to EPS to AAPL levels? Here are some back of the envelope calculations:

Based on the latest 10Q, looks like Tesla had $2B in capex for Q1 2023. They are guiding for 7-9B in capex for 2023,2024, and 2025. What would be a more 'normal' capex for Tesla if they weren't in expansion mode? Let's say it's $1B/quarter (complete guess and doesn't seem realistic but let's go with it). That would add another $1B to net income, taking it from $2.5B to $3.5B. or $EPS of $0.80 to $1.12. annualized that is $4.48/share. May argue for a better for a share price than now, but AAPL level doesn't seem realistic. Unless you are figuring in more $ from FSD or non-auto businesses. Would be interested in your math.

 

[Nocturnal]

Dang. Market figured out that Tesla competes with Nvidia.

 

[FireMedic]

Good question. $200 per month is a lot of money though but would be great for road trips so I may get it or maybe a highway version for cheaper if they offer it. My neighbor just complained to me yesterday that he found out the premium connectivity costs $10 per month when the free trial runs out and won't be renewing it. So you can guarantee he won't be subscribing to FSD. So based on my deep analytical data analysis utilizing the latest ai technology tools, my conclusion seems to match your 50% assumption exactly. (please don't make me show the math, just trust me that I came up with 50% also).

My wife gets a commute stipend from her employer and charges it at work when she’s there.

She’s supposed to provide documentation for her expenses. I wonder if FSD subscription would qualify?

I could see her using it for her entire drive and I’m certain it would changer her quality of life (granted it’s only 2-3 days / week), it’s one of the worst in the whole Bay Area, sometimes 2 hours each way (Walnut Creek to Mountain View).

 

[cusetownusa]

Spot on. I've got a 2018 M3P that I'm going to try to get upgraded to HW3 before next month. We have a road trip to Yosemite with some non-Tesla friends from the east coast and will be taking both cars. They will be driving the 3, we will have the Y with the dogs. Want them to get the "full Tesla experience". So I'll pony the 1k for the HW upgrade, and $200 for a month of FSD.

For sure, I have 2 long road trips within a month of each other and will definitely pay the $200 for that month to really test it out.

My question, when subscribing for a month(s) of FSD, do you receive access to the beta version? I know at one point you wouldn't but not sure if that has changed. My first big road trip that I want to test this on is not until late July so things can obviously change by then.

 

[bkp_duke]

Why not just get a new M3P?

Not happening till Highland, and even then I'm holding out for Tesla to release a Plaid 3 (@ZeApelido / Elon - pretty please?).

 

[bkp_duke]

For sure, I have 2 long road trips within a month of each other and will definitely pay the $200 for that month to really test it out.

My question, when subscribing for a month(s) of FSD, do you receive access to the beta version? I know at one point you wouldn't but not sure if that has changed. My first big road trip that I want to test this on is not until late July so things can obviously change by then.

Good question, I don't know the answer to that. But I have a mobile service appointment tomorrow for a CCS retrofit, so I'll ask the mobile tech if he knows (probably not, but worth a shot).

 

[bkp_duke]

How are your calculations getting you to EPS to AAPL levels? Here are some back of the envelope calculations:

Based on the latest 10Q, looks like Tesla had $2B in capex for Q1 2023. They are guiding for 7-9B in capex for 2023,2024, and 2025. What would be a more 'normal' capex for Tesla if they weren't in expansion mode? Let's say it's $1B/quarter (complete guess and doesn't seem realistic but let's go with it). That would add another $1B to net income, taking it from $2.5B to $3.5B. or $EPS of $0.80 to $1.12. annualized that is $4.48/share. May argue for a better for a share price than now, but AAPL level doesn't seem realistic. Unless you are figuring in more $ from FSD or non-auto businesses. Would be interested in your math.

I'm banking on FSD and Energy. Auto sales will continue to grow, but they are simply going to be the "vehicle" (pun intended) to sell FSD. This is a 10-year time horizon (and I'm the kind of guy that will never retire anyway - so the funds are all to pass on to my kids).

 

[FireMedic]

Good question, I don't know the answer to that. But I have a mobile service appointment tomorrow for a CCS retrofit, so I'll ask the mobile tech if he knows (probably not, but worth a shot).

Yes you do. See my posts from yesterday.

I subscribed in the morning and about 12 hours later the beta had downloaded to my car.

Also, you get a 48 hour grace period… If it doesn’t download to your car you could cancel before you ever get billed.

TL/DR, turned my car from a giant, dumb dumb into an above average teenage driver with a software update

Teslascope on Twitter has all the software builds listed with who gets it right away etc.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661740057362059266

 

[cliff harris]

Im not a Cybertruck customer, but TBH the wheel-yoke (woke?) doesnt look too bad to me. I never liked the yoke, I think the model Y wheel is pretty good.
The thing that would bother me is the apparent lack of stalks? Is this 100% confirmed? The cybertruck going stalk-less and trying to *guess* when you will indicate or do other stalk stuff?
The TeslaVision replacement for ultrasonic sensors is worse than useless TBH. I just totally ignore it. It was a step too far in terms of penny-pinching for a premium car.
If future Teslas dont have stalks, I'll be keeping my model Y until it falls to bits. This feels like a step way too far. (USS was bad enough).

 

[SOULPEDL]

Spot on. I've got a 2018 M3P that I'm going to try to get upgraded to HW3 before next month. We have a road trip to Yosemite with some non-Tesla friends from the east coast and will be taking both cars. They will be driving the 3, we will have the Y with the dogs. Want them to get the "full Tesla experience". So I'll pony the 1k for the HW upgrade, and $200 for a month of FSD.

Summer is here and school is out. FSD take rate gonna 2x (something something...) because of road trips.

The FSD car this summer is the main attraction. Load it up people, and use it often to lower your insurance costs. Drive to the next town just to see how it performs. Take your first safe-driving nap (not advise). Start another FSD YouTube channel, open your rideshare business, quit your job, move to that cooler city, buy another Tesla for the kids in school, and one more for the garage game play. Move your entire 401K over next to mine and order some Burnt Hair cologne. FSD is life-changing!

 

[2daMoon]

The cybertruck going stalk-less and trying to *guess* when you will indicate or do other stalk stuff?

Notice the Left/Right turn signal arrow buttons on the wheel to be operated by the left thumb?