Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ByeByeJohnny]

If I include all my time researching, discussing, and arguing with the FUDsters my hourly wage might not be all that impressive.

Am I the only one that opened a calculator?

If you are in your mid fifties you need close to $2,500,000 in gains to have made a $15 minimum wage for eight hours every day since you were born.

It's tough to get rich in this world, and there's a lot of hours in a life.

 

[Curt Renz]

Craig Johnson of Piper Sandler - this evening:

TSLA—Shares have reversed a declining price channel/cleared resistance.  Recent bullish crossover between the 10-/30-week WMAs.  RS is confirming the breakout and notable TechniGrade ranking.  Add to positions, a new leg higher appears to be underway.

 

[bruce4000]

Tesla energy making money for PowerWall owners (or is Tesla making this money?)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1671281988567724034

Seems like another area of Tesla business that WS not valuing in stock price. As for Texas, where were the people saying “ oh no, we can’t allow air conditioners because the grid can’t handle it”?

 

[SmokyPeat]

Am I the only one that opened a calculator?

If you are in your mid fifties you need close to $2,500,000 in gains to have made a $15 minimum wage for eight hours every day since you were born.

It's tough to get rich in this world, and there's a lot of hours in a life.

Boy, your parents are going to be sore when they learn you've been freeloading off of them for over 50 years when you've got $2.5M ! Then again, they sent an infant off to do hard labor, so they probably had it coming.

 

[Sparky4life]

So you are saying... its going... up ?

No silly, he’s saying that if it goes up, it will go up more.

 

[2daMoon]

Okay, when I made this post this morning I didn't expect the stock to nearly hit $280 by the end of today!

Aim higher tomorrow, okay?

 

[heltok]

One thing absent from the this run up is discussion about Megapack revenue. For example this up to 4GWh project where Tesla was used for the first phase:

224 Tesla Megapack 2XL Units to Power New Neoen Project in Australia

The Australian Energy Market Operator has awarded Neoen a service contract for Western Australia's South-West Interconnected System. The company uses 224 Tesla Megapack 2XL units to power Collie Battery sized at 219 MW / 877 MWh.

www.tesmanian.com

At $475/kWh, 4GWh would be $1.9B or equivalent of 47k cars at $40k. We still don't have good clarity on the margins on these, but imo it should be decent. And mainly this implies that there might be more orders of this type in the future in various countries.

 

[bpjod]

One thing absent from the this run up is discussion about Megapack revenue. For example this up to 4GWh project where Tesla was used for the first phase:

224 Tesla Megapack 2XL Units to Power New Neoen Project in Australia

The Australian Energy Market Operator has awarded Neoen a service contract for Western Australia's South-West Interconnected System. The company uses 224 Tesla Megapack 2XL units to power Collie Battery sized at 219 MW / 877 MWh.

www.tesmanian.com

At $475/kWh, 4GWh would be $1.9B or equivalent of 47k cars at $40k. We still don't have good clarity on the margins on these, but imo it should be decent. And mainly this implies that there might be more orders of this type in the future in various countries.

Note, that is 475 CENTS/kWh, not dollars. I come up with $19M for 4GWh, not $1.9B.

 

[heltok]

Note, that is 475 CENTS/kWh, not dollars. I come up with $19M for 4GWh, not $1.9B.

According to Order Megapack | Tesla you can get 100megapacks at a total of 391.6 MWh for $177,715,610

$177,715,610/391600 kWh=$453.8/kWh.

4GWh would cost 4GWh*$453.8/kWh * 1000000 kWh/GWh=$1.815B

 

[RubberToe]

Speaking of Texas and powerwalls, here is a recent post from the Nuclear forum:

Nuclear power

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/figures/summary-for-policymakers/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_FigureSPM7.png

teslamotorsclub.com

Nuclear plant tripped off and solar and batteries filled in.

RT

 

[Gigapress]

I'm pretty sure Elon has stated on multiple earnings calls that he thought the Model Y would be the best selling car.

As far as I can remember, he didn’t start saying that until a couple years ago, like @Words of HABIT said in a reply. I seem to recall him also saying that Tesla had been caught off guard by the unexpectedly large demand for the Y.

For the larger Cybertruck discussion, I believe the projections of 250k per year are very conservative. For context, every one of the S, X, 3 and Y model progression has been a category killer that dominates its market segment. If the Cybertruck achieves a similar degree of domination in the pickup truck segment then it’ll sell 1 million+ annually. I mean, the F-series sold 653k in the USA alone in 2022, and that was in a down year with a lot of production shortages especially from chip constraints.

Arguably the CT has stronger competitive advantages than the S3XY models.

U.S.: best-selling pickup truck models 2022 | Statista

With year-end sales of nearly 654,000 units, the Ford F-Series was the best-selling light truck in the United States in 2022.

www.statista.com

 

[betstarship]

More about ERCOT. Apparently Market saturation of renewables in Texas by 5/2024?

Is the ERCOT Battery Storage Market Going to Saturate Next Year? - World-Energy

The massive buildout of battery storage in the ERCOT, Texas market and the risk of market saturation was a huge talking point at Energy Storage Summit USA last month.Taking place over two days in the capital Austin, the ERCOT market and its soaring batter

www.world-energy.org

Edit: Texas operational capacity is ~142 GW and peak demand (historic highest) hit at 80GW last year. Its about to raise the peak again, most likely, at 82GW peak.

https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2022/02/08/ERCOT_Fact_Sheet.pdf

ERCOT expects record peak demand Wednesday as Texas regulators continue work on reliability standard

The grid operator for most of Texas anticipates sufficient resources as it forecasts demand near 83 GW on June 21, but observers note coal and gas plant outages are higher than anticipated.

www.utilitydive.com

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

The warming of the Elon & Modi bromance continues; hopefully culminating in a Giga - announcement, soon.

They both just tweeted this…

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Correct, I don't expect Tesla to apply for NEVI funding. (They haven't started the process in Oregon, for which they only have two more weeks to express interest. But they did have a meeting with Ohio people on their NEVI program...)

But this announcement is the opposite of that. It forces anyone using NEVI funds in Texas to install both CCS and NACS. That would be potentially EA, Loves, Pilot, EVgo, ChargePoint, FreeWire, Blink, Flo, etc. (Tesla already would have had to put in CCS as well as NACS, well I guess they wouldn't have had to put NACS in.)

Thing is, Tesla makes up the largest share of the EV market. Why should taxpayer funds go to EV charging companies that DON'T support the majority of the market? Only makes sense to require NACS plugs in order to get our money (now rather using taxpayer funding at all is appropriate is a different question).

 

[WolfHero]

I am not sure if this is allowed, but saw someone on twitter mentioned this fun website:
Tesla Price Target
I like how the bottom/lowest price target list (guess who) has a clown emoji.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I’ve got some June 2024 leaps that are still 30% down. Im hanging on for dear life.

Ya should-a just sold them earlier like I did. /s

Hmmm .... LEAP options can get pretty addictive on days like this ... I think I'm holding on for a bit:

 

[dhanson865]

By Jarrett Renshaw and Hyunjoo Jin

(Reuters) -Tesla scored a series of victories for its charging technology on Tuesday, capped by Texas saying it would require electric vehicle charging companies to include both Tesla's standard as well as the nationally recognized CCS if they want to be part of a state program to electrify highways using federal dollars.

Earlier in the day, Reuters was first to report both that electric pickup truck maker Rivian was backing Tesla and that charger maker BTC Power would support the standard. Those announcements follow decisions by GM and Ford to add Tesla charging technology, shunning efforts by the Biden administration to make the Combined Charging System (CCS) the dominant charging standard in the United States.

Texas - home to Tesla's headquarters and a new car factory complex - is the first state that will mandate Tesla's charging technology, giving a boost to CEO Elon Musk's hope of making it the national charging standard.

"The decision by Ford, GM, and now Rivian to adopt NACS changed requirements for Phase 1" of the rollout, the Texas Department of Transportation said in an email to Reuters on Tuesday, adding that it would require direct current fast chargers to have one CCS and one North American Charging Standard (NACS) connector.

Texas's decision will put a ton of pressure on other states to adopt Tesla's NACS, said Lew Cox, director of business development at MD7, which helps companies deploy chargers.

"It’ll effectively make an NACS the new charging standard," Cox said.

Exclusive: Tesla wins as Texas requires state-backed charging stations to include its plug

Tesla scored a series of victories for its charging technology on Tuesday, capped by Texas saying it would require electric vehicle charging companies to include both Tesla's standard as well as the nationally recognized CCS if they want to be part of a state program to electrify highways using...

www.reuters.com

 

[Electroman]

Elon was in good spirits after his meeting with Narendra Modi. Going to India next year. Sounds like a Gigafactory is likely. Opens up a big chunk of the world's population to Tesla.

Any tweet or videos please ?

 

[2daMoon]

More about ERCOT. Apparently Market saturation of renewables in Texas by 5/2024?

Is the ERCOT Battery Storage Market Going to Saturate Next Year? - World-Energy

The massive buildout of battery storage in the ERCOT, Texas market and the risk of market saturation was a huge talking point at Energy Storage Summit USA last month.Taking place over two days in the capital Austin, the ERCOT market and its soaring batter

www.world-energy.org

Edit: Texas operational capacity is ~142 GW and peak demand (historic highest) hit at 80GW last year. Its about to raise the peak again, most likely, at 82GW peak.

https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2022/02/08/ERCOT_Fact_Sheet.pdf

ERCOT expects record peak demand Wednesday as Texas regulators continue work on reliability standard

The grid operator for most of Texas anticipates sufficient resources as it forecasts demand near 83 GW on June 21, but observers note coal and gas plant outages are higher than anticipated.

www.utilitydive.com

I like how the first article goes on about "market saturation" as the batteries will be able to provide the energy needed to supplement in a crisis. As if more batteries won't be practical once that saturation point has been reached.

They avoid directly mentioning how more storage allows less waste from solar and wind, which, once stored, will begin to replace the abundance of gas and coal producers. This will happen because the renewable electricity will be less expensive and abundant. Only fools those profiting from fossil fueled production, and those locked into having to buy from the old guard will be paying the higher rates. Word will get around.

The article does hint at this aspect without coming right out and saying that renewables will slowly and steadily replace all less efficient means of energy production.

Hence, the careful choice of words when defining the mission. "accelerate the transition" is warm and fuzzy and avoids being a direct threat, even though to some, it certainly is. That's okay, they'll find other work farming wind and sunlight into energy, or flipping burgers. At least until Optimus fills those roles as well.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Plain language please, as is appropriate for an international audience.

It can be difficult for us English readers to interpret.

I went to the Artillery School at the Combat Training Centre

Sounds like a language school to me.