Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

"Vivacious" could be has been substituted for "Nice" as it works well enough without taking the enthusiasm so far as to attribute a more positive aspect than deserved for the meager gain it represented.

Yeah, didn't matter, did it? Hedgies clawed it all back to within the penny by 10:18... just another day in the salt mines.



Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla is far better as a company but TSLA has been a poor performer for a while.

Haha, Whut? Which while? The "UP 125% YTD While?" or the LoraK After-a-While?

Phooey! Meanwhile, RIVN is up 30.3% YTD, with more than 2x of that in the past week? If you bought yesterday, you missed most of that recovery over-the-past-7-sessions-while:

TL;dr Investing vs. Chasing the hot ticket? Gambling? What are the chances RIVN is a lawn dart?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ok, how does Shanghai laying off people assembling packs with LFP batteries sourced from LG and CATL fit into all this? Assuming this is true, of course.

The orginal "Battery Workshop" was built in 2019 to assemble 2170 cells (at 1st src'd from Giga Nevada, later from LG) into nonstructural packs (modules made with Tesla Grohmann Automation equipment).

These products are being retired as Giga Shanghai adopts structural LFP packs sourced from CATL. Going forward, I look for "Project Highland" to use structural packs exclusively. No place to use modules anymore.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Mercedes on board with NACS

https://twitter.com/x/status/1677319130922246144

Ninja’d by @Buckminster and @MP3Mike Here’s the Reuters link

Mercedes-Benz picks Tesla's charging standard for North America EVs from 2025

German automaker Mercedes-Benz said on Friday its electric vehicles in North America will adopt the Tesla-developed charging technology from 2025 and also get access to more than 12,000 of its Superchargers from next year.

www.reuters.com

 

[Mengy]

Sold about 20% of TSLA in my IRA yesterday to go into RIVN. Tesla is far better as a company but TSLA has been a poor performer for a while. I'm still a TSLA long but I've decided that there are many other great opportunities out there and I need to make some moves to free up some $$. I was 100% TSLA in my Roth. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good and RIVN has been on a tear since I bought in yesterday.

I hate to say this but short term I feel RIVN is a much better place to park $$. I'm hoping we get some momentum after Cybertruck is released, so there is a lot to look forward to but, I'm not sure earnings will be a net positive for the stock as I'm concerned the market will only want to focus on margins. I'm sure Tesla will have a healthy beat on the the top and bottom line but if margins drop we could be in for a rocky few months.

Cheers to the longs.

While RIVN the stock has performed pretty well lately, the company's financials are still horrendous. The reason why I feel confident about being all in on TSLA is due to their incredible financials and trends upwards over time, coupled with the future potential of both FSD and Optimus. Tesla is now a safe juggernaut of a company, they print money. Rivian will be lucky to even survive the coming years.

I wouldn't touch RIVN at all until they show some ability to bring their costs under control, but good luck to you!

 

[gtrplyr1]

Rivian make some great vehicles, there is no denying that. They also know how to make an electric truck that the masses will instantly like, there is little denying that. Rivian have some great technicians and some great engineers and designers. They understand branding too. People I know with a rivian absolutely love them.

But there is a big difference between the product and the company. I whine endlessly on here to anyone who will listen about parking sensors, FSD rollout, and a lack of some basic features in a Tesla. But speaking as an investor is very different. I don't buy shares in the company with the best product, I buy shares in the best company from a long term financial point of view.

I don't see how Rivian turn around their finances. They have shown no ability to get costs under control, and a failure to scale up at speed. The company looks fantastic right up until you look at the finances, then it looks horrendous. I don't think they will *actually* go bankrupt, because I see someone like GM/Ford/Toyota/VW will buy them out at a vast discount in a desperate bid to compete with Tesla, but that situation will be a bloodbath for investors.

I understand diversifying from TSLA, and am keen to do that from $300-400 a share with some of my stake, but Rivian aren't even in my top 100 stocks I'd shift capital to. YMMV.

Their financials look much better than Tesla's did early in Tesla's corporate life. Frankly, Tesla was hanging on by a thread and if Tim Cook had taken Elon's call, Apple may very well have stepped in. That's not hyperbole, Elon has stated that Tesla was in very bad shape at that time. Rivian has about 12 Billion on hand and Amazon holds close to 20% of the company. I'm not here to slag Tesla as I have close to $5 million in outright shares but there is no denying that the stock has been a poor performer as of late. Tesla make a great car, I own two of them, and the FSD is fantastic but I'm just saying that there are other opportunities to make money in this market out there and I feel RIVN is a good place, SHORT TERM.

I've had this conversation with other TSLA diehards and have received pushback, fine I get it but really there is a lot of opportunity to do well in the EV space and I really think the "easy money" in TSLA has been made. For TSLA to go up 3x at this point would take a lot of very positive things to happen, and they very well may but it's not going to be quick. For RIVN to go up 3x might be just a little good news and some momentum. That's all.

Best to all here and

Cheers to the TSLA longs ... of which I certainly am one.

 

[EVMeister]

snip

I don't think there's anything wrong with putting a bit of money in RIVN for a short term gamble, if that's your thing. But that's really all it is - short term gambling. What I think many here would object to is the idea of taking money out of TSLA to fund that gambling addiction.

 

[gtrplyr1]

I don't think there's anything wrong with putting a bit of money in RIVN for a short term gamble. But that's really all it is - short term gambling. What I think many here would object to is the idea of taking money out of TSLA to fund that gambling addiction.

TSLA was a hell of a gamble when I first got in, which was probably well before most on this board. I've made a hell of a lot of money on TSLA and I see the opportunity to do it again with RIVN. I can throw 20% of my TSLA gains into it short term. I highly object to the "gambling" analogy, Rivian makes a great product and I'm starting to see a lot of them on the streets here in Los Angeles.

This board is a very nice source of info regarding TSLA but can sometimes suffer from Tunnel Vision.

In any case, I bought a large chunk of RIVN under $21 and I think we see $30 in the next few weeks, at that time, I'll probably take some off the table and see what happens. Rivian and Tesla can and frankly NEED to co-exist if we are going to make the eventual shift away from ICE vehicles. There will be lots of winners in this space.

BTW, this is all happening in my Roth IRA so I've got absolutely NO tax issues.

 

[gene]

Sold about 20% of TSLA in my IRA yesterday to go into RIVN. Tesla is far better as a company but TSLA has been a poor performer for a while. I'm still a TSLA long but I've decided that there are many other great opportunities out there and I need to make some moves to free up some $$. I was 100% TSLA in my Roth. Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good and RIVN has been on a tear since I bought in yesterday.

I hate to say this but short term I feel RIVN is a much better place to park $$. I'm hoping we get some momentum after Cybertruck is released, so there is a lot to look forward to but, I'm not sure earnings will be a net positive for the stock as I'm concerned the market will only want to focus on margins. I'm sure Tesla will have a healthy beat on the the top and bottom line but if margins drop we could be in for a rocky few months.

Cheers to the longs.

I actually own quite a bit of Rivian stock, thankfully I am only slightly in the red. I hope Rivian does well but honestly, I will be surprised if they are still in business 2 years from now.

 

[gtrplyr1]

I actually own quite a bit of Rivian stock, thankfully I am only slightly in the red. I hope Rivian does well but honestly, I will be surprised if they are still in business 2 years from now.

They make a very nice truck and SUV. They could be a great buyout target for anyone looking to get into the EV game so I'm not of the opinion they go out of business. After all, the market for EV's is growing exponentially, which makes their survival much more possible. In any case, I'm keeping a tight watch on my RIVN purchase and if it goes south, I'll consider it a financial lesson. The one thing I've learned in my life is that rewards don't come without some measure of risk and I'm willing to accept this.

I'm also curious, to the few that have chimed in, have you actually seen one of their vehicles?

BTW, I was also an investor in Apple well before the iPhone. I also made a small fortune there, I'll consider myself very lucky rather than smart. I still am a long time member of an Apple Investor board like this one as I still own a nice amount of AAPL. When I bought TSLA and talked about it on that forum, I got many similar replies telling me that I was crazy for selling AAPL stock to buy TSLA stock .... I did just fine. Many told me that TSLA would be bankrupt very soon.

 

[WattsHappening]

TSLA was a hell of a gamble when I first got in, which was probably well before most on this board. I've made a hell of a lot of money on TSLA and I see the opportunity to do it again with RIVN. I can throw 20% of my TSLA gains into it short term. I highly object to the "gambling" analogy, Rivian makes a great product and I'm starting to see a lot of them on the streets here in Los Angeles.

This board is a very nice source of info regarding TSLA but can sometimes suffer from Tunnel Vision.

In any case, I bought a large chunk of RIVN under $21 and I think we see $30 in the next few weeks, at that time, I'll probably take some off the table and see what happens. Rivian and Tesla can and frankly NEED to co-exist if we are going to make the eventual shift away from ICE vehicles. There will be lots of winners in this space.

Good luck. I hope Rivian is successful in the end and your investment provides a good return.

I agree that TSLA was a gamble back then also.

However, the two companies and situations are very different. Tesla was much leaner, had much less cash but had positive unit economics (positive gross margins) on Model S and X (I don't recall on the Roadster, but I think it also had positive GM). They also didn't have Tesla as competition.

Rivian has a ton more cash, but they are spending money like a drunk sailor on leave, and their unit economics are horrible. Sure they will improve with increasing volume. But can the R1T and R1S ever make positive GM? I'm not sure. They are banking on the next gen platform to provide better unit economics. I fully expect they will get to that point, but it's going to take some time. And in the meantime, the CT is going to become stiff competition to the R1T.

So yes, I'm a Tesla fanboy. But it seems to me that RIVN is a bigger gamble than TSLA was back in the day.

 

[Thumper]

It is good to have undersea cables. Starling is vulnerable to a coronal ejection event. Cable are a worthwhile communications supplement. Don't put all eggs in one basket.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Their financials look much better than Tesla's did early in Tesla's corporate life. Frankly, Tesla was hanging on by a thread and if Tim Cook had taken Elon's call, Apple may very well have stepped in. That's not hyperbole, Elon has stated that Tesla was in very bad shape at that time. Rivian has about 12 Billion on hand and Amazon holds close to 20% of the company. I'm not here to slag Tesla as I have close to $5 million in outright shares but there is no denying that the stock has been a poor performer as of late. Tesla make a great car, I own two of them, and the FSD is fantastic but I'm just saying that there are other opportunities to make money in this market out there and I feel RIVN is a good place, SHORT TERM.

I've had this conversation with other TSLA diehards and have received pushback, fine I get it but really there is a lot of opportunity to do well in the EV space and I really think the "easy money" in TSLA has been made. For TSLA to go up 3x at this point would take a lot of very positive things to happen, and they very well may but it's not going to be quick. For RIVN to go up 3x might be just a little good news and some momentum. That's all.

Best to all here and

Cheers to the TSLA longs ... of which I certainly am one.

Careful here. Rivian’s balance sheet is head and shoulders above what Tesla had for most of its life. Rivian’s P/L is like a magnitude worse than anything Tesla ever had. This means that Rivian can survive for a few years, but unless it can significantly trim those losses, it isn’t going anywhere but down. If you trace Rivians stock performance, it started tanking as soon as people learned that their P/L as a manufacturing company was atrocious.

2Q results for Rivian will be interesting and highly significant.

 

[mongo]

@gtrplyr1
grater player,

why did you sell? TSLA has, what? 85+% of EV sales world wide.
(see recent comments)
literally the only _reliable_ charging network on the planet. that the OEM's are joining

If you look at _money flows_ around 3.2+ Billion more shares of TSLA have been purchased at fractionally higher prices than sold at fractionally lower prices since 1/1/2023.
ie, money flows into. it's a confirmatory piece of information.
View attachment 954017

(you might also watch the SpaceX launch, and 200th+ successful landing this afternoon out of Vandenberg, (3:29 EDT ) and consider, another Musk company, run by Gwen Shotwell, an instantiated actual goddess)

It's about stock return potential, not company value. One can put money in cash, TSLA, or other things, it doesn't need to be a statement about Tesla itself. I left it all in at 400 to avoid feeling like I didn't believe in Tesla, that was financially a bad call (IRA, no tax issues).

Up 13% is better than 0.5% (current performance today). Past performance is not an indicator of future returns.

 

[Artful Dodger]

but there is no denying that the stock has been a poor performer as of late.

Your "as-of-late" is my "short-term-noise".

67.2% CAGR says put the noise on squelch: (howz dat 'tradin' doin?)

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[gtrplyr1]

@winfield100

It's Guitar Player .... professional musician by trade so my whole life has been a gamble

AND, I didn't sell my entire position ... in fact a very small amount. 20% of my IRA, we have most of our TSLA in a larger trading (non IRA) account. So really probably sold about 5% of our Tesla position.

Yes TSLA has the lion's share of the market but even TSLA has said that it fully expects market share to drop considerably as the larger market expands. Most analysts expect TSLA's market share to drop to under 30% in the coming years and it's totally fine as the larger market is going to expand so even 30% will be a lot of cars.

With regards to your charging network, Elon just gave RIVIAN a nice gift by opening them up and RIVIAN responded in kind by adopting TSLA's charging standard. Problem solved.

Thanks for including the Space X stuff, yes Elon and company did a fine job. I'll be nice and not include the myriad of issues with the bird company ... he's not perfect.

Once again, I mean no disrespect to TSLA or it's investors ... like I said I've got well over 5 million in shares (not options) ... I want TSLA to do well and I'm in the Cathie Wood camp that sees FSD taking TSLA to new heights but it's not going to happen in the next few months so I'll make a little side investment.

 

[winfield100]

It's about stock return potential, not company value. One can put money in cash, TSLA, or other things, it doesn't need to be a statement about Tesla itself. I left it all in at 400 to avoid feeling like I didn't believe in Tesla, that was financially a bad call (IRA, no tax issues).

Up 13% is better than 0.5% (current performance today). Past performance is not an indicator of future returns.

sadly i also agree, but console myself swimming in my 90 degree heated pool and kayaking in my trimaran kayak in the tropics

 

[T@oo]

Is it too much to ask that Rivian investors take their Rivian advice and spam to the Rivian investors board and leave us desperate and desillusional Tesla investors alone? TYVMIA.

 

[cliff harris]

For every vehicle it sold in the last quarter, Rivian lost $163,000. Like I say, the vehicles are great. They should be.
I might take a second look when they lose less than 50% on each vehicle sold, but thats not looking imminent. Even xpeng beat them, by only losing $128,000 per vehicle.

 

[petit_bateau]

Ok, how does Shanghai laying off people assembling packs with LFP batteries sourced from LG and CATL fit into all this? Assuming this is true, of course.

Tesla Starts to Lay Off Some Battery Workers at China Factory

Tesla Inc. is laying off some electric-vehicle battery workers at its Shanghai plant, people familiar with the matter said, just as a bruising price war among manufacturers in China is showing signs of easing.

www.bloomberg.com

The orginal "Battery Workshop" was built in 2019 to assemble 2170 cells (at 1st src'd from Giga Nevada, later from LG) into nonstructural packs (modules made with Tesla Grohmann Automation equipment).

These products are being retired as Giga Shanghai adopts structural LFP packs sourced from CATL. Going forward, I look for "Project Highland" to use structural packs exclusively. No place to use modules anymore.

Cheers to the Longs!

It is just as @Artful Dodger said. It certainly isn't going to result in less vehicles being made as Shanghai is near plateau* and it seems that LFP supply can now fill it entirely.

The only thing I might add is what the implications are for those LG 2170 cells that will soon be phased out of Shanghai completely. The LG 2170 cell line has no need to shut down as it also feeds the Berlin Y LR product. The thing I am unsure of is where Berlin's 2170 packs come from - I think they are currently assembled in Shanghai from those 2170 packs. In which case will pack assembly move to Tesla Berlin, or will it get outsourced to LG China ? But that's a detail. And in due course I'm sure those 2170 cells can be diverted to other product areas at whatever is an opportune moment.

So in the meantime we should expect a further increase in Berlin LR Y production fed from the increased availability of LG 2170 cells.

(Here is an old article that gives some cell background -
Model Y From Texas And Germany Initially To Come With 2170 Cells? )

(*ArtfulDodger and I disagree on a few details re Shanghai but not I think the overall position of it being close to plateau production. Exactly how close can be debated.)