Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tslagreen]

I'm curious... the pattern I see is when there is some news to cause a price drop, you come in and low ball the stock using Kung Fu. I can't help but think this occurs right after you sold. We saw the FUD last week on FSD, we had a hunch it was going to drop. I personally think the CFO news has little to do with the stock price today - it was baked in based on this weekend's FUD.

Look, I'm not trying to call you out. I would just like for you to let me know when you're about to sell.

Did Apple's CFO resign as well? Their stock is down more than 2% today.

 

[AndrewZ]

For how long has Elon had enough money to ensure his entire lineage doesn't *need* to work a day in their lives, but yet he's still giving 'er?

Not sure why Zachary would be all that different from Elon or any number of other people who are beyond wealthy but still work because they're passionate about something, want to continue improving the world, or whatever other reasons particularly among the high-achieving types that make it into these roles in the first place.



I'd fully expect to see Zachary picking up another challenging position somewhere

 

[gtrplyr1]

So Musk wants to deliberately keep the stock price low in order to retain talent?

"Talent" in Silicon Valley is drawn to companies that have rising stock prices it's how they get real compensation. Many of these engineers make decent incomes but the real money is made on stock options. These options, are used to draw the best and brightest to a company. Sorry but I completely disagree with the idea that Elon is trying to keep the stock price down in order to retain talent.

 

[Big Time]

So how long until mr kirkhorn can dump the rest of his shares and options? Anyone know those dates and that amount?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

YES, that would occur if FSD got solved to Level 5 before 2023 ends. Although I'm honestly not sure even THAT would kick TSLA out of it's slump, because part of me truly thinks Wall Street wouldn't understand the implications and STILL wouldn't flood into the stock in volume, not until revenues started rising due to FSD at least.

We have lots of positives on the horizon but nothing immediate nor rapid, they are all slow burners. I think we are in a holding pattern for the next year or two.

So what i am interpreting from your analysis is......2 weeks?

 

[phoggy123]

Disclaimer...I am in the camp of Tesla being the most important company in the world at the moment given all the things they are tackling. Tesla is not the same as TSLA.

1. If you had no idea what the company did or where they competed and looked at their income statements I think you would come to a couple conclusions. A. This company is growing very fast with a high value product. B. Their profit is eroding as they grow very fast. AI/FSD//VPP, look like side projects right now. We know these will be massive in their own right but they are very difficult to value. Cars and now battery storage are the few metrics we can measure accurately as to their financial success.

2. Retail got crushed the end of 2022 and I think there is limited retail momentum to push this stock. Which means in order to move back up to ATH we need institutional money to push momentum higher.

3. Those that did buy options on the upswing need to realize they are going to be tested on the downside. Some of us that have bought LEAPS in the past know how this goes. you make astronomical unrealized gains and hold because ATH are just around the corner, only to see that go away as WS pushed TSLA around.

4. Tesla is at the point where they are doing what they say they are going to, but at their valuation it's not enough to keep the gravy train going. All of these short term things (factory retooling, CFO leave, Elon (twitter, cage match, whatever else) cause the stock to languish because...wheres the NVDA moment of oh SH$T they are in another league.

5. Bonds yields are trending up, why risk anything above if I can guarantee 5%+ returns for long term bonds? The US gov is predicting ever expanding deficits and the Fed has to hammer down inflation before they can soak them up...so who is funding this...you guessed it the same funds that are nervous about TSLA valuation.

My point being is in the last 6 years of owning this stock I have had to separate my passion for the work Tesla is doing, with how TSLA operates. There is really only one sure fire way to make money/value TSLA and that is to own shares and wait. Tesla is the only western company that has the ability to meet the government demands of electrification...keep buying the dip, stay out of margin, and good things will happen. Honestly I have gotten to the point of ignoring Elon, it's fun to read but I dont make any investing decisions off his thoughts (twitter, CC, otherwise) anymore.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Bought some at $245.50, thanks Zack!

Picked up some cheap options for this Fri.
Max Pain is at 260, and I'm not sweating the CFO stuff.

 

[Cobbler]

The outrage! Tesla sells a car that probably doesn't support Steam games!

Meanwhile AutoEvolution mistakes their sponsor with a unit of memory capacity

 

[lascavarian]

A) it’s going to be livestreamed on X. Regardless of your position and the outcome - more eyeballs, free advertising for all associated businesses = good

B) all proceeds going to veterans = good

Put up something or don’t bother. It’s like a cat with no claws. “You’re a bad boy! No, you‘re a bad boy”! Where’s the beef? My last comment, market is open.

 

[Drumheller]

Going to need to open the Burnt Hair for another spray today.

 

[Artful Dodger]

A break by Zach to see what other parts of the world look like doesn't necessarily mean he won't return at some point to become CEO.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

While you might be right....I take exception to how you define investors.

Sure speculators will use this to make coin.
That part is not new.

But investors won't.

Not just speculators. Hedgies are going to play the volatility and lack of participation from cautious and institutional investors who are going to want to wait 1-2 quarters to see how the new CFO is.

This really isn't new or surprising guys. Same exact thing happened back with Zach took over for CFO.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Sure, this is Tesla. And there are a lot of haters and shorters out there in the dungeons of Twi... , eh, X, who will shout FRAUDDDD!!!!. But they are not the ones who determine the SP. Big investors do. They will want to be reassured about the financial stability of Tesla going forward, that's all that matters to them. They do no think of fraud. This isn't Wirecard, Nikola or FTX.

That's what I'm saying though. Cautious investors and institutional investors are going to wait for a period to see how this plays out. In the meantime, hedge fund are going to have a field day with the stock

 

[Paul_SF]

Elon definitely planned this announcement right before the opening bell.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Would you mind elaborating on this? I would love to know why a higher stock price would not serve the mission. And while your at it, explain the ridiculous memes that Elon puts out regarding shorts?

Elon hates short sellers because they undermined the share price when the value of TSLA did matter. When they needed to get financing or do capital raises. Further, short sellers provide no value to anyone (except provide liquidity), they are just negative leeches.

Fortunately, Tesla as a business can no longer be hurt by short sellers. Tesla has no debt and billions in the bank so don't need the share price to go higher to accomplish the mission, which is to accelerate the advent of sustainable energy. On the other hand, as the share price climbs higher, more and more employees reach their retirement number. Some of them key employees. This hurts the mission by losing talent that is actively contributing to accomplishing the mission.

 

[cliff harris]

Our PE is still 79 today, and while Tesla is growing production at a good rate, EPS growth will stagnate this year due to the price cuts and likely grow little next year. 4680 deployment is going slower than expected, Semis will continue to be in slow production for at least another year until Nevada is built out, CT ramp and release will likely be a slow rollout and late in 2023, Giga Mexico hasn't even broke ground yet so the Gen 3 platform is still several years away, and Highland M3 isn't even out yet. Austin and Berlin are still ramping but their growth alone won't be enough to maintain our 50% CAGR production growth YoY, we'll probably slow for a bit until new factories and the Gen 3 cars go into production. I expect we'll see the stock mostly flatline and the PE compress over the next year or two while we wait for the Tesla seeds to slowly bloom.

I think this may be overly pessimistic in terms of stock impact. Long history of holding TSLA has told me that there is little correlation between actual financial changes in Tesla earnings and the stock price. Remember the huge bump from the Hertz deal, which was worth very little in real terms...

TSLA seems to trade very much on sentiment, not deep analysis. This is why I bang on about HOLDing until the cybertruck release. I know, and you know, that the net profit impact of CT will be in 2024, not 2023, but the marketing and awareness will come from the first 100 trucks in the hands of customers, which could be September, or October.

The financial press obsesses over the next BIG THING, and the CT release totally changes the range of customers Tesla appeals to, and will be amazing clickbait for months with people obsessing over the first CT customer delivery video, the first off-road attempts, the first time someone does something stupid, the absolutely predictable videos of people trying out different handguns on their cybertruck... the videos of them racing away from other trucks at stop lights, yada yada. Insane free publicity for the brand.

Plus Tesla has history of the occasional completely unpredicted amazing announcement. Elon has cried wolf about FSD a lot. Maybe one day he will be right, and only people already holding stock will see the benefits .

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1688584767258738688

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm curious... the pattern I see is when there is some news to cause a price drop, you come in and low ball the stock using Kung Fu. I can't help but think this occurs right after you sold. We saw the FUD last week on FSD, we had a hunch it was going to drop. I personally think the CFO news has little to do with the stock price today - it was baked in based on this weekend's FUD.

Look, I'm not trying to call you out. I would just like for you to let me know when you're about to sell.

Nope haven't sold. I've actually been pretty open about my divesting strategy for TSLA and the price points at which I will start doing the divesting which is when the stock hits 350/share, I will take around 5-7% of my shares and sell covered calls on them at something like 2 year expiration at $425 or $450 strike price for income in the near term. If the stock hits that strike price and gets called away, I'm fine with it. As the stock recovers into 400 and the beyond, I will continue to take 5-7% of my shares and sell covered calls on them for roughly $75-100 in share price appreciate for income and then the proceeds in shares hit the stock price. I'll keep doing this until I only have anywhere from 15-25% of my original position left.

If the stock goes back down into the low 200's, I might actually pick up some LEAPS, we'll see. Otherwise, there's simply nothing to do but sit on your hands and watch every other macro stock hit new ATH's or be back within 10% of their ATH

 

[Featsbeyond50]

The fight isn't real. It's Musk trying to generate buzz for X.

Oh the fight is real. Elon is the typical male who thinks he can fight, and Zuck is licking his chops. Especially when he hears Elon is training by lifting 40 pound dumbbells between meetings and is going to up his game by getting some 50s.

Simulation.

 

[Artful Dodger]

You know why, don't you? Simulation

Yeah, that's how Wall-E rolls. TSLA tagged it's Lower-BB this morning then bounced off:



Anyone who didn't think Wall St. intended to do regardless does not watch the Charts...

Cheers to the Longs!